By Ted Belman
Preliminary negotiations for forming the government are not promising. Bibi is already looking for ways to shunt Smotrich and Ben Gvir to the side so they won’t have any serious power.
Smotrich and Ben Gvir agreed to negotiate as a block forcing Netanyahu to take them both or reject them both. Since they have 14 seats out of a 64 total for the right wing block theoretically he could reject them both and take Gantz’s 12 seats ending up with a 62 seat majority. Gantz has continually said that he will not join a coalition government if Bibi is the Prime Minister. We’ll see if Bibi makes him an offer and if he sticks to his word.
For Smotrich, his dream job is Defense Minister because this would put him in charge of all of Judea and Samaria. Bibi is determined not to give him that portfolio. He does not want the tail wagging the dog. He does not want to take the heat that he will be subject to from the international community for Smotrich’s policies,
Ben Gvir will demand the Ministry on Public Security so he can take on terrorism head on. With this portfolio, he would be in charge of the police. This includes the on the Temple Mount..
I think that Bibi will offer him this portfolio so he can refuse Defense to Smotrich.
But then what will he offer Smotrich? He has already asked Shas to demand Finance.
The only leverage Bibi has over Smotrich and Ben Gvir is to threaten to reject them in favour of Gantz or Lapid. But this depends on whether either is willing. Will he go so far as to offer Gantz Defense? God forbid. I am hoping and expecting Smotrich to insist on Defense.
So the question is will Bibi reject both Smotrich and Ben Gvir in favour of Gantz or Lapid? This option is only open to Bibi, if Gantz or Lapid agree to join the coalition under Bibi.
Even if either is prepared to sit in the government under PM Netanyahu, they will not agree to removing Fraud and Breach of Trust from the Criminal Code, thereby letting Bibi off the hook. Smotrich and Ben Gvir and the Haredim have already agreed to this.
So the way I see it Smotrich is in the stronger position to get what he wants.
@Ted Belman
So, the end justifies the means?
The clean, honest, principled, “right wing”, etc. MKs must buy their portfolios by letting the current and future criminals off the hook?
I predict that even if they do that, they will not get what they want from Netanyahu.
Wow!
A convicted felon (“tax offences”) will be in charge of the country’s financial affairs!
That’s RICH!
(He will also need the override clause law passed by the “right wing”).
@Peloni
Remember that Bibi wants to have fraud and breach of trust to be de-criminalized. For this, he needs Smotrich and Ben Gvir.
It looks like the first order f business for the newly minted MK’s even before the government is formed, is to pass the override law..
@Ted
I very much agree. The idea that Bibi would pursue the political nullification of the election outcome by having run with Religious Zionism in such a closely coordinated campaign to only resolve to maintain that villain Gantz as Defense Minister, while sidelining his campaign partners, is a particularly difficult reality to accept as being real or even remotely possible. Bibi should not forget who brought him to this victory and the reason for which his great electoral victory was made possible. He should award Smotrich and Ben Gvir the roles which they request, despite the will of the Americans to maintain their leash upon Israel with Gantz in control of the Defense Ministry. I hope to soon hear of the Right’s ability to actually accept the mandate which the people have handed to them and govern accordingly, while foregoing a grander image of Bennett’s terrible fantasy of a broad unity govt from coming to fruition. If we are to believe the reports being made in the press, it does seem as if Bennett might have won this election even as he did not run and he did not campaign. Hopefully, these media reports, themselves, will prove less prophetic than fantastic. I am, however, far less certain of this than comfort affords…very far less certain to be honest.
What matters most to me is that Smotich and Ben Gvir get the portfolios that they want.. All other issues pale in significance.
Deri’s wife confirmed yesterday that Deri will take Finance.
@Reader
Why? You believe that there is someone who is more experienced or more capable than Dermer for the role? Like who? Also to denigrate Dermer with with you purposefully condescending comparison to a hairdresser speaks quite poorly of you, yourself. Dermer has played a remarkably important service to the state of Israel, becoming so effective that Obama requested that he be replaced. Also, Dermer maintains the familiarity with the Obama minions now repopulating the US foreign service as well as the White House, and it would be in everyone’s interest to see him return to once again serve the state with such success that he is once again requested to be replaced. Few men have demonstrated the diplomatic skills with which Dermer has handled himself in the past years, and which are once again necessary to face off against these Washington Radicals.
One more thing to note. The post of FM should not be lobbied about as if it is a party prize to be awarded to some political back-bencher, regardless of which party is in power. To have a statesman with the skill and ability which Dermer has demonstrated over the years in the role of the FM is quite essential, particularly at this sensitive time. So once again, who is it you would put in this position to do better than Dermer? It is a serious question if you could drop your polemics and personal insults long enough to offer a serious answer. Or is it simply due to the fact that Bibi named him that draws you ire?
@peloni
I think this sort of thing should be made illegal.
What if “Bibi Melekh Israel” all of a sudden decides that his hairdresser is a perfect fit to be a Culture Minister, or whatever?
Or that he wants to pay someone off for some favors with a nice ministerial position?
Someone who is not elected must not serve as a minister.
I really hope that this will cause a parliamentary crisis there as it would in any normal country.
BTW, your Bibi idolatry is a real turn-off.
@Reader
It is understandable that the members of Likud would be upset that the prize of the Foreign Minister would go to a non-Likud member, let alone a non-Knessett member. However, Likud’s fury aside, placing the good of the country over the party demands of Bibi’s own back-benchers, would be for the best, and I believe that Dermer taking on such a role would play to both his strengths and Israel’s needs. I, for one am very excited to see such an appointment put forward by Bibi.
Now, after both Smotrich and Ben Gvir have been also used and (likely) tossed aside by Netanyahu, they might start to understand the slogan of “never Netanyahu”.
When Netanyahu was in the opposition, he boasted how often he was on the phone with the Americans, so I expect him to follow the wishes of the American administration after having saved himself from his legal problems.
Aryeh Deri to be Defense Minister?
PM-designate Netanyahu reportedly asks Shas chairman to take defense portfolio to Smotrich can become Finance Minister.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/362793
“Smotrich told Channel 12’s “Meet the Press” that his faction would have the “legitimacy to receive meaningful positions,” and was interested in claiming the defense, finance, transportation, and justice portfolios.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-says-may-seek-defense-finance-justice-portfolios-in-a-netanyahu-coalition/
“Aryeh Deri to be Defense Minister?
PM-designate Netanyahu reportedly asks Shas chairman to take defense portfolio to Smotrich can become Finance Minister.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/362793
“Smotrich told Channel 12’s “Meet the Press” that his faction would have the “legitimacy to receive meaningful positions,” and was interested in claiming the defense, finance, transportation, and justice portfolios.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-says-may-seek-defense-finance-justice-portfolios-in-a-netanyahu-coalition/
Is it possible that Netanyahu would want to lead from the right? That he could confer what the Left detests by granting Defense and Public Security as they should be awarded? The US Administration is not helping Israel. With the complete corruption of our election system, not only does Israel face two more years of benighted American diplomatic relations, but ever more harsh meddling for years. Given how exigent the Iran situation is, a break with America now gives a freer hand solving Iran, leashing the judiciary and allowing Israel to move on international matters without an American veto. This path could inure to Netanyahu’s stature as true statesman. Is this not possible too among all the scenarios discussed?
A great article!
Don’t you love watching “Bibi’s adroit tricks”?
Good news:
From Arutz
Let them rot in the opposition, far from the power to extend the mischief they have already achieved over the past year.