In order to survive the Arab Spring, Syria’s president was forced to expose himself to an Iranian “mutation” far more contagious and dangerous than COVID-19. It will take billions of dollars to rehabilitate Syria, and it is only a willingness from the West to provide assistance in return for pushing back the Iranians, alongside sanctions, that can cure Assad of this dangerous disease.
By Oded Granot, ISRAEL HAYOM
This week, just as the world marked 10 years to the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, Syrian President Bashar Assad and his wife Asma contracted the coronavirus. Doctors claim the couple’s chances of recovering from the virus are good, even if they have yet to receive a dose of Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, which the Israelis funded in return for the release of an Israeli citizen. If regional statistics are any indication, the Assads, who are symptomatic, are highly likely to survive the disease.
After all, Assad has been one of the select few to emerge unscathed from the tempest that brought down such tyrants as Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, Tunisia’s Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh. Syria’s residents paid a terrible price for his survival. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed, and over 10 million were displaced, half of whom are now living as refugees outside the country.
In order to survive, Assad, who mercilessly butchered his citizens, was forced to expose himself to the Iranian “mutation” that is far more contagious and dangerous than the coronavirus. Inspired by the developments taking place in Tunisia and Egypt, crowds of people, without any clear identity or leader, took to Syria’s streets in March 2011 to demand the removal of the regime and the granting of greater individual freedoms and rights. The regime used excessive violence to quell the protests.
Two or three years later, Sunni organizations recognized an opportunity to oust Assad, a member of Syria’s minority Alawite community, which represents just 12% of the country’s population, with the support of outside actors. They took over the protest movement and set the country on fire. On the other hand, Iran, discerning the threat to its ally in Damascus and the land bridge connecting Tehran to Hezbollah and Lebanon through Iraq and Syria, ordered thousands of Hezbollah fighters into the country to assist Assad.
Local protests turned into a bloody civil war. The most radical and murderous of the rebel groups, the Islamic State, succeeded in taking over large swathes of Syria’s territory. Hezbollah fighters and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards rushed to the Syrian military’s aid. Syria had transformed into a battlefield, with multiple forces at play. They were joined by the Kurds and outside actors like Turkey and Saudi Arabia funneled funds to the rebels.
Recognizing the West’s reluctance to intervene in Syria and then-US President Barack Obama’s lukewarm response to Assad’s use of chemical weapons in 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin set up shop in Syria and built himself a strategic outpost for many years to come. The entry of Russia’s air force and special forces into Syria alongside Iran, Hezbollah, and the pro-Iranian militias turned the tables. The Islamic State was defeated, and the Iranians began to fill the void in Syria by taking over various fields of activity and through its presence in the field. Ironically, it was the enlistment of the Western coalition into efforts to defeat the Islamic State that helped the Iranian regime tighten its grip on the country.
From the outset of the events in Syria a decade ago, Israel decided not to intervene in the civil war unless it recognized a threat to its security, for example, in the establishment of a hostile area on the Golan Heights border. In this spirit, in the first years of the Arab Spring, Israel formed various ties with the moderate rebels that had taken over the border area.
Despite the Israeli attacks on Syria, Iran continues to tighten its grip on the country and shows no signs of withdrawal. Serving as advisers, Hezbollah operatives have penetrated the Syrian military at all levels. Weapons from Syrian military warehouses continue to pour into Hezbollah in return for the oil Iran provides the country, something Israel, according to reports, has acted to prevent out at sea.
Removing the Iranian presence from Syria seems like a very difficult if not impossible task right now, especially as this is currently only being attempted by military means. Keep in mind that the Russians are far from thrilled by Iran’s presence. Nor is the Syrian regime, which owes its very survival to Tehran, happy with its new role as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s hostage. It will take billions of dollars to rehabilitate Syria, and it is only a willingness from the West to provide assistance in return for pushing back the Iranians, alongside international sanctions on Iran, that can cure Assad of this dangerous disease.
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