by Michael L. Wise
The Israeli flag at Jerusalem’s Western Wall. Photo: Hynek Moravec via Wikimedia Commons.
On January 5, The New York Times published an article echoing some proponents of the two-state solution, who warn that the failure of the “peace process” will mean the end of Israel as a Jewish democratic state. They claim that if Israel declares sovereignty over the West Bank, Israel will no longer be a majority Jewish state — because the addition of three million Palestinians will create an Arab majority in the near future, due to Arab fertility rates. Furthermore, they say, if Israel fails to grant immediate citizenship to West Bank Palestinians, the Jewish state will no longer be a democracy. Thus Israel will cease to be a Jewish democratic state, and the Zionist enterprise will fail.
But there are critical problems with the above conclusions. The Arab population of the West Bank is less than 1.7 million, not three million. The three million number reflects data presented by the Palestinian Authority. Our definitive study (published by the Begin Sadat Center at Bar Ilan University) documented the inflated counting by the Palestinian Authority. Furthermore, the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, the World Bank and other international data collection agencies confirm that Jewish fertility now exceeds Arab fertility. Jewish immigration and Arab emigration also contribute to an increasing Jewish majority in the West Bank and Israel as a whole.
Some people argue that the failure to grant immediate full citizenship to all residents of the West Bank would brand Israel as an apartheid state. But Israel’s Declaration of Independence declared that all people would have civil and religious rights. Israel is not an apartheid state. The Jewish nation is a racially diverse country. Its citizens include Jews from every place on the planet — as well as non-Jews. And these non-Jews enjoy genuine freedom, which is in stark contrast to the apartheid status of Jews and Christians in much of the Muslim world.
Even though the PLO Charter (1964) and Hamas Covenant (1988) call for Israel’s extermination — as do Israel’s neighbors in Syria, Iran and elsewhere — Israel’s minority Arab population are full citizens and are represented in all walks of Israeli life — as MKs, government ministers, judges, professors and senior business and community leaders. Israel treasures its non-Jewish residents, and its status as a democratic state.
If Israel declares sovereignty over all of Judea and Samaria, it should grant immediate universal citizenship to the Arab residents of the West Bank — but only when regional peace breaks out. Jihadists and suicide bombings must end, and Muslim leaders and groups must stop lauding violence. And Arab leaders, in both Israel and the region, must recognize Israel as a Jewish state.
In the interim, Arab residents of the West Bank will have full civil and religious rights. They will autonomously manage their municipal affairs, and democratically elect their local leadership — but should not participate in national elections. Clearly, as long as Hamas and Fatah seek Israel’s destruction — and as long as global Islamic violence continues — one cannot expect that Israel would be suicidal and risk giving national voting rights to a population that wants to undermine its very existence.
The world of Islam is in the midst of a violent storm. Hopefully, a 21st–century reformation is in the offing. Judaism and Christianity have previously undergone reformations. But without a total cessation of the widespread wars of Islam, Israel cannot be expected to allow a Muslim minority influenced by violent anti-democratic forces to participate in life and death national decisions.
But, you ask, won’t the world brand Israel as an apartheid state — claiming that it gives its Muslim minority the status of second-class citizens? A world that has been blind to true violent apartheid and racism cannot dictate to Israel how to best preserve itself and continue as a democratic Jewish state.
@ Edgar G.:
And I forgot to delicately suggest that there is an unshakeable tie between how many children women have in a lifetime, and how many children men sire, including the occasional birth losses which are fewer all the time.
And these are Arabs in whose culture many children are important.
I believe that you believe what you say, but you COULD explain better.
@ mikewise:
Well…I’ve never come across anything like THIS as a “leveller” between the sexes, and as a reason for dismissing the implications of polygamy.
The results are staring us in the face, The amount of Arab men who will not impregnate are small compared to those who will. I have no figures , but they are hardly needed.
In 70 years 8,600 Bedouin have increased to, I believe the last figure I saw recently was 420,000. And spread from a localised Negev area, to all over Israel, and are presently taking over the Galil. About 320-370,000 “refugees” have now amounted to 7.2 million in the same time; regardless of their actual status.
I don’t see any difference between “foreign” women from Gaza, and local YESHA women. Unless you mean by “foreign”, that Gaza is running a slave system with unwitting Russian girls.
@ Edgar G.:
polygamy is relevant if foreign women are imported from gaza and elsewhere. otherwise for every polygamist there are men who never marry. bottom line: how many children will women have in a lifetime?not how many children will men sire?
there are dramatic long term global trends which favor a growing jewish majority. of course these are only projections.
@ mikewise:
My recollection is that I saw it in an article on this site, written by a demographer of known reputation. I just can’t remember who, as I take very little notice of the writers, but more of the content. I believe that it was a difference of somewhere near 3/4 of a percentage point. Israeli was 3+ and Arab was about 3.7+. But don’t you think that regardless of the change you mention, that has happened gradually over the past 25 years, that it can very easily go into reverse, Compared to the centuries of Arab increase, 25 years is only a blip on the metre.
As I mentioned earlier, as long as polygamy is legal, and acceptable, the possibility is there. You can’t get away from the enormous increase in the Bedouin alone. I saw it right on this site, as well as a similar article in some news outlet. Once they were a few in the Negev, now they are in the Galil and elsewhere; hundreds of thousands of them, and polygamous. They alone, in 50-75 years could become the majority in Israel. A throw-off remark, not specifically mathematical). And they hate us.
@ mikewise:
RESEND
Yes, I read that.
In my opinion, that reformation will occur when the Mashiach arrives (e.g. NEVER).
Thus, I think we need to deal with today’s reality which is a hostile Arab population (however big or small) and prepare for the unknown future (whereby they may one day out number us). Be it next year, in ten years, in 100 years or in 1000 years.
In my opinion, we shud annex J&S, but we should try to implement either 1) Arab emigration, 2) the Jordanian option or 3) a combination of both. Further, any and all Arabs remaining in Israel (excluding those with pre-existing citizenship) shud NEVER be given citizenship nor the right to vote in or determine national elections.
@ mikewise:
Yes, I read that.
In my opinion, that reformation will occur when the Mashiach arrives (e.g. NEVER).
Thus, I think we need to deal with today’s reality and prepare for the unknown future. Be it next year, in ten years, in 100 years or in 1000 years.
In my opinion, we shud annex J&S, but we should try to implement either 1) Arab emigration, 2) the Jordanian option or 3) a combination of both. Further, any and all Arabs remaining in Israel (excluding those with citizenship today) shud NEVER be given the right to vote in or determine national elections.
@ Edgar G.:
Situation has changed significantly in the last 25 years not only in Israel but in the region and even globally. The number to monitor is total fertility rates. The number of children per woman’s lifetime. You are correct. Forecasting human behavior is very treacherous. But that does not imply that we should sit on our hands. Please provide reference for your “Arab (in YESHA) rates are still somewhat in favour of the Arabs).” Thanks.
@ mikewise:
Of all the silly reasons this is the MOST. The trend is in it’s infancy, after hundreds of years of high Jewish birth rates but far far higher Arab birthrates, where one Arab could impregnate at least 4 women almost in the same week. There is a huge mass of young-under 25- Arabs. I myself used to pass on the road to Akko, a beautiful house, where the man, the father, had 26 children, all young enough to get the childrens’ allowances and enabling him to live like a king.
Assuming the rate is what you say, (and I know myself, having looked up statistical information, that the Jewish (in Israel) and Arab (in YESHA) rates are still somewhat in favour of the Arabs), it would only take the usual lunatic imam.to call on his devotees to have one more child a year, just one. Also, the trend being in it’s infancy, there can be absolutely no dependence placed on it’s continuance and growth as a permanent phenomenon. Apart from everything else, polygamy by itself, is fatal for a Jewish permanent majority. Look how the Black “Hebrews” have multiplied exponentially, they lso prctice polygamy. There were a couple of hundred tourists maximum, and now there are thousands.
In 1948 in the Negev, there were not more than 10,000 Bedouin, actually 7800. Today there are over 400,000, and have spread all over the country even to Galilee. So in 70 years they have increased more than 40 fold. And there’s more…….
@ yamit82:
Yamit, you may be a great novelist and storyteller. Thanks for the input but let’s look at some data.
In 1995 there were approximately 80,000 Jewish births and 40,000 Arab births in Israel. Arab represented 33% (excluding net positive immigration). Last year there were 40,000 Arab births and 140,000 Jewish births . Add to that net Aliyah of 30 thousand. Arabs represented 40/210 or 19% of the new faces.
Arab population is starting to age. The trends are clear.
Sorry to confuse you.
Jewish fertility now exceeds arab fertility. And the trend is not only in Israel but it is regional. Furthermore, check out fertility of Ottoman Turks and Persians. You are an expert on the subject. TOTAL collapse. Hmmmmmmm.
btw: it is not only your enemy haredim but secular Jews are also having babies. Take a long needed walk in Tel Aviv.
@ Edgar G.:
Let me complete the sentence…”but I didn’t expect that you would take me literally”….
@ yamit82:
It’s our Moshiach not theirs.
@ yamit82:
It’s out Moshiach not theirs.
@ yamit82:
Thank you for the immense store of very readable material, informative, entertaining and obviously eclectic. This Denis MacEoin is a pretty smart man, although I tend to disagree with the method by which he declares that Muslims are very smart people. In my opinion, although he has studied much, and knows a lot about Islam and it’s major intellectuals, they are only a drop in the boiling sea of ignorance and brutality which pervades the whole body of Islam and it’s practitioners. .
@ Edgar G.:
https://www.israpundit.org/arabs-arent-capable-of-peace/
From Leon Uris “The Haj”
“Every last Arab is a total prisoner of his society. The Jews will eventually have to face up to what you are dealing with here. The Arabs will never love you for what good youv’e brought them. They don’t know how to really love. But hate! Oh G-d, can they hate! And they have a deep, deep, deep resentment because you have jolted them from their delusions of grandeur and shown them for what they are a decadent, savage people controlled by a religion that has stripped them as one commands a mob of sheep. You are dealing with a mad society and youd better learn how to control it.
At the end of the novel, Uris has an exceptional Arab, an archeologist, admit: Hate is our overpowering legacy and we have regenerated ourselves by hatred from generation to generation, century to century. The return of the Jews unleashed that hatred, exploding it wildly, aimlessly, into a massive force of self-destruction. In ten, twenty, thirty years the world of Islam will begin to consume itself in madness.
We cannot live with ourselves; we never have. We cannot live with or accommodate the outside world; we never have. We are incapable of change.”
Gideon: “We don’t believe in punishing an entire village for something you did not do.” Ibrahim replies, “That proves you are weak and that will be your downfall. You are crazy to extend us a mercy that you will never receive in return.”
Worth Re-Reading
Elites refuse to hear truth about Islamists
https://www.israpundit.org/archives/47997
By NEWT GINGRICH, POLITICO
The underlying driving force behind this desperate desire to stop unpleasant questions is the elite’s fear that an honest discussion of radical Islamism will spin out of control. They fear if Americans fully understood how serious radical Islamists are, they would demand a more confrontational strategy.
yamit82
FEBRUARY 4, 2014 AT 12:09 AM
Denis MacEoin says:
May 9, 2013 at 7:57 pm
Bernard, those are big questions. I criticize a great deal about Islam, starting with my view as an atheist that religion should never be the basis for political engagement, warfare, or legislation. I do not believe the Qur’an is the Word of God, but if some people want to believe that I won’t hinder them. The Qur’an, like the ahadith and the works of fiqh, contains attitudes to all non-believers that makes any form of integration impossible. That is reinforced by the doctrine of al-wala’ wa’l-bara’, which forces Muslims to stay far apart from Jews and Christians, who are their inferiors. The use of the law of jihad as the basis for Islamic international law has meant that many Muslim countries are unable to engage with a modern form of international relations, notably with regard to Israel (because the law of jihad says non-Muslims must be driven off any Islamic territory that they try to rule). I find Islam unforgiving, oppressive to women, cruel to gays, unbelievably stupid in its laws commanding amputation for theft (which makes a thief less able, then unable to work). Islamic supremacism, especially when combined with Islamic totalitarianism makes the world a harder place, especially for all non-Muslims. I don’t understand why almost no-one condemns Islamic slavery (the oldest and longest form), while criticizing Western slavery alone. And why do we condemn Western imperialism while ignoring Islamic imperialism. I dislike the power exercised by the Islamic ‘ulama’ in their different forms, the Shi’i ‘ulama’ above all. I dislike the way Muslims boast about the great achievements of the faith, when the real achievements go back to the Middle Ages and there have been none since. I hate the way Muslims have become trapped in a stagnant situation that prevents them achieving innovation, liberalism, democracy, and greatness, while they pour scorn on a country like Israel that is so far ahead of them they can’t even see it. I dislike the principle that al-bid’a kufr, ‘innovation is unbelief’.
The connection between Islam and global conflicts and violence is simple. First, there is no distinction between Islam the religion and Islam, the state and the source of legislation. Secondly, jihad is an obligation for Muslims, so long as sufficient numbers will fight in it, or an obligation on the whole community if it is at risk from attack from outside. Many Muslims interpret everything done by Israel or the West (especially the US) as aggression against Islam and respond accordingly, justifying their aggression against Jews and Christians. Even though all the empires (even the massive Portuguese one) have ended, Muslims still believe we are trying to colonize them.
Does any of that help?
Denis MacEoin Said:
But I’m not willing to criticize Islam on the basis of bigotry or fantasy, and too many people on here attack it without knowing very much at all. (Your own ‘million interpretations of the Qur’an’ is an example of real ignorance or sloppy speech.) Every time we say something outright inaccurate, we hand a gift to those who defend Islam.
yamit82 says:
May 9, 2013 at 9:35 pm
In the PC West generalization about Arab intellect is presumed immoral, but leftists generalize the other way in presuming Arabs to be good and smart. Generalization and arguing from absence of evidence are accepted scientific methods. I don’t care that the Arabs could have achieved decent intellectual results if they had been forced to attend universities from seventh century onwards; absent positive evidence of their achievements, it is logical to presume them stupid.
Groups, including nations, are different from each other. Their competition fosters social evolution and progress. In the process, some groups die out. Oil purchases artificially keep the Arab Muslim hordes alive.
Under Israels’ anti-racist law, the noted author Leon Uris if he were alive today and a citizen of Israel would be imprisoned five years for his historical novel The Haj. Recall the setting of his book: Palestine, 1937.
@ yamit82:
Well, I’m also a novelist (as well as an academic in Arabic, Persian and Islamic Studies), so I know a bit more than Uris. Anyone who calls the Arabs ‘stupid’ knows nothing about them. If you have ever had to work your way through a difficult text of Islamic philosophy (think Ibn al-’Arabi or Shaykh Ahmad al-Ahsa’i etc.) will know that they have the ability to think as deeply and as sharply as any Western philosopher. To suggest that any given race is ‘stupid’ is out and out racist and has no place in any serious debate. What is missing is the freedom to express oneself without outsider restriction. We have had the same problem in the West, and we have suffered. That changed for us during the Enlightenment, but the Islamic world (not just the Arabs) still has not experienced any form of enlightenment. When it started to do so, back in the early 20th century, there was great hope that they would break free from the shackles of religion and the past, but from the 1970s it all started to go back again. But if you say they are ‘stupid’ again, I’ll send you a few pages of Ibn al-’Arabi and ask you to explain them. You won’t stand a chance
I think I have had this conversation before 😉 Haaaaaaaaaa
Ted Belman Said:
That’s the weakness of his plan making it impossible and unrealistic… It’s also immoral bestowing defacto ownership rights to the land by the Arabs justifying their nationalistic claims over the Jews. There are many ways to force them to leave without bargaining with them over payment. Sherman has no solution to those with Israeli citizenship and green card permanent residents.
mikewise Said:
Oh, you mean never!!! Why didn’t you say so simply and to the point???
mikewise Said:
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Bear Klein Said:
I agree
@ mikewise:
Typical of an ignorant Wiseacre. It’s piddling, and quite wriggley, compared to someone who was brought up with a thorough grounding in the art of “repartee”.
You remind me of one of the denizens of Bletchley Hall of whom Churchill said, “I know I asked you to leave no stone un-turned, but….. …..
@ mikewise:
At least I know how to read statistical data and your parrot other without looking at the stats… I suggest you learn basic math and if you are too lazy to read the gov stats yourself ask any 10 yr old to help you! Do the math…. according to Israeli gov statistics in the age group of 1-9 years Arab children are roughly 35% since Arab women marry and have children much earlier than Jewish women by the time a Jewish woman has her first child the Arab woman has 2 children in 9-12 years when those children reach voting age for the first time they will then have 31-32% The curve levels off later when Jewish women begin to have children but not before there is an increase in Arabs birth rate for some years till Jewish births catch up. Evens out only at the bottom of Bell Curve 😛
@ Edgar G.:
Just adds more evidence to my theory that the Japanese are the lost tenth tribe, e.g, the Jewish/Japanese Calendar which begins with the month of Nissan and is followed in rapid succession by the months of Honda, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Lexus, Daihatusu, Mazda, Subaru, Isuzu, Yamaha, and Mitsuoka.
Clever these Japanese.
@ mikewise:
Very well put
I would say Arab enemies SHOULD NOT be allowed to obtain Residency or Citizenship. Democracy is NOT A SUICIDE PACT!
@ nfarbstein:
A longer verion of my article includes:
We can hope that a 21st century reformation is in the offing and Muslims will cease slaughtering each other in 50 countries around the world. Shiites are massacring Sunnis. Farsi’s are murdering Sunnis. Turks are killing Kurds. ISIS is killing Yazidis. Moslem brotherhood are killing Al Qaeda in the Sinai. Civil wars rage in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt. Boko Haram terrorizes Nigeria. Judaism and Christianity have undergone multiple internal reformations and can confront the modern word. Until there is a total cessation of hostility and violence not only in Israel’s immediate neighborhood but also in the global wars of Islam, Israel cannot be expected to allow a Muslim minority influenced by violent anti-democratic forces to participate in life and death national decisions.
@ Edgar G.:
you are not offensive just uninformed.
@ nfarbstein:
I should have added the mashiach thanks for the suggestion.