By Ted Belman
In Aug of 2012, The National Interest reported:
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President Obama could bomb Iran in late October to try and ensure that it does not develop nuclear weapons. A devastating strike would create an upsurge of patriotism in America and fully neutralize Mitt Romney’s contention that Obama is a foreign-policy wimp. It could allow Obama to sweep to victory in November.
Today Debka Reported:
US sources: US, Israel plan October Surprise. Others: Israel can do it alone
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 9, 2012, 1:53 PM
Four facts deserve attention with regard to a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The first is that the Iranian-Israeli war is already at hand. Iran launched it by sending an unmanned drone into Israeli air space Saturday, Oct. 6, breaking new ground in belligerence with a cyber attack.
Israel countered by stationing Patriot missile interceptor batteries in Haifa and other parts of its northern region.
That Tehran initiated hostilities with a cyber attack on Israel cannot be wiped from the record any more than its score: two points, Iran; zero, Israel, whose air defenses proved no match against a large, slow-moving and cumbersome aerial vehicle loaded with electronic equipment.
As many experts have pointed out, Patriots are not designed for intercepting aircraft, only missiles. Their deployment therefore aims at defending the country from potential Iranian or Hizballah missile strikes from Lebanon or Syria – depending partly on the state of the Syrian war.
And indeed, Hamas and Jihad Islami spokesmen, when they assumed shared responsibility for the 55 Palestinian missiles and mortars fired against Israel Monday morning, Oct. 8, said quite openly that the rules of Gaza warfare had changed: IDF attacks on terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip, however limited in scope, would draw forth reprisals not only from that Palestinian-ruled territory but from Lebanon, they said.
DEBKAfile: As of mid-September, under newly-signed military pacts, the strings of the two leading Palestinian terrorist militias in the Gaza Strip are being manipulated from Beirut by Iran and Hizballah. It is they who now set the rules and dictate the scope of Palestinian anti-Israel operations from Gaza.
The drone’s incursion was a separate Iranian initiative.
The other three points pertinent to the Iranian-Israel confrontation are:-
1. US intelligence recently warned President Barack Obama that Iran’s nuclear breakthrough point is much closer than formerly estimated, i.e. approximately 7 weeks off. In late November, therefore, Iran will enough 20 percent plus enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. American and Israeli intelligence see eye to eye on this estimate.
It flies, however, in the face of the assessments circulated in Israel by anti-attack factions who are now claiming that Iran has slowed the progress of its military nuclear program in order to divert much of its enriched uranium to civilian projects.
This claim is not only incorrect, but it is a valuable contribution to Tehran’s propaganda effort to prove that its program is entirely innocent and peaceful.
2. A US Congressional Research paper published internally on Sept. 28 asserts that Israel is capable of going it alone without the United States against Iran’s nuclear sites, including the Fordo underground enrichment facility.
This fact has been suppressed by the anti-attack camp, whose spokesmen have insisted that Israel lacks this capacity.
The experts commissioned by congress to determine the truth of the matter concluded: “… an attack on Esfahan, Natanz, and Arak might require deploying only 20% of Israel’s top-line fighters purchased from the United States. “…this yields an Israeli strike involving at least 100 aircraft. Most sources indicate that Israel has a total of “around 350 fighter jets.”
The US congressional research team adds that, although Israel received enough 7 KC-130 refueling planes from the US to cover the round trip to Iran and back, the Israeli Air Force has also secretly developed two more refueling options about which the US knows very little.
“Over the past two years, Israel Aerospace Industries-IAI bought up all the Boeing 707s coming on the international market and had them converted in IAI factories into KC-135 refueling planes,” says the report.
After the Congressional Research Center published these findings, David Rothkopf, who is close to US Democratic Party leaders, tested the ground with a report Monday, Oct. 8, in Foreign Policy, which said that the United States and Israel are considering the possibility of a joint “surgical strike” against Iran’s nuclear facilities as an “October surprise.”
He quoted a source said to be close to the discussions, which claimed that “a small-scale attack is currently viewed as the most likely military option by air, using bombers and supported by drones,” which Israel would not be able to carry out on its own.
What Rothkopf was saying is that President Obama has no more than 20 days to decide if and when to conduct this US-Israel attack on Iran.
His clock, say our sources, is ticking at the same speed as that of former Mossad chief Efraim Halevi who on August 1 predicted an attack on Iran within twelve weeks; and Tzahi Hanegbi, the former Knesset defense and foreign affairs committee chair and close confidant of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who said in mid-September that the next 50 days would be critical for Israel’s destiny.
Sept 19/12 The Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday morning launched a large-scale surprise exercise in the north of country,
Sept 12/12, YNET reported, “Two weeks ago, forces in the Golan Heights started working on a project to massively upgrade the barrier which stretches over tens of kilometers. The efforts will include setting up a new fence, deploying an advanced alert system to replace the old one and significantly improve the Combat Intelligence Collection Corps’ observations layout.”.
On Sept 25/12 at the UN Obama vows before UN to halt Iran bomb
There will be NO attack on Iran from the Obama administration–becasue they support the Iranian regime!
@ Barry Shaw:
Do you think any America President (Romney included) would chance another war after being so badly burned in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and now coping with the so called Arab spring? America has other fish to fry. Romney claims that Russia poses a very big danger and the same for China. For him, Iran is small potatoes.
It will never happen.
1. Obama doesn’t have the balls.
2. He wouldn’t want to lose his Nobel Peace Prize AND the White House within a month.
@ Bernard Ross:
Yes, if Galloway had pertinent info, Curious American did well in bringing it forth.
What strikes me though is that out of a multitude of internet sources he went to search info from such a registered Judeophobic as Galloway. I mean, time is limited, how often will it be the case that Galloway will have something important to say?
With regard to Spengler’s predictions on Iran’s need for annexing oil-rich regions on its borders, i am convinced that he is right. If this is so, then no way Iran is backing off from acquiring nukes.
@ SHmuel HaLevi: bibis election call certainly puts a perspective. One JP opinion said that bibi’s past recent actions related to his intention to call election now. The Iranian situation seems strongly related in obamas and bibi’s elections. Anything is possible even the highly improbable scenario that bibi and obama were faking it all along and they have an october surprise coupled with a great plan that they hatched in secret. Wouldn’t that be nice? But then again “hope springs eternal” HMMM, perhaps I should shut up.
dionissis mitropoulos Said:
I dont agree with all the deduced conclusions but do mainly on the state of the current situation, an interesting article.
@ dionissis mitropoulos: Good catch! Curio hides behind his words as if he were an ostrich who believes he cannot be seen. I do believe that Curios motivations are disingenuous. However, I did go to the Gallloway link. It is full of the usual BS that emanates from a muslim pal sympathizer. However, there was one thing of value if true: G noted that the Iranians were able to bring down the US stealth drone without damage(electronically). When coupled with the info that Israel was unable to take over control of the Hezbullah drone in the 1/2 hour plus the intimation that it came down the coast undetected plus that it was constructed of fiberglass stealth material that evades radar; some are making conclusions that the Iranians reverse engineered the US drone, acquired the stealth technology and are able to outwit the Israelis and Americans on the electronic control aspect. This information, if true, is pertinent regardless of the source. By the way , I have had similar discussions with Curio regarding the intent behind the words.
@ CuriousAmerican:
A violation of what?
I don’t see Obama taking such a risky action with the polls running so close. There’s a chance of something terrible happening in such an operation.
@ CuriousAmerican:
Israel does nothing to others. What Israel does is defend itself from its enemies aggression. Iran has repeatedly threatened genocide against the Jewish state.
@ Harold Titsobeli:
Harold Titsobeli Said:
Hello Harold
I am quoting from Spengler (aka David Goldman):
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NJ10Ak02.html
“And Iran cannot abandon or even postpone its nuclear ambitions, because the collapse of its currency on the black market during the past two weeks reminds its leaders that a rapidly-aging population and fast-depleting oil reserves will lead to an economic breakdown of a scale that no major country has suffered in the modern era”.
If that’s the case, nothing short of a military strike will dissuade Iran.
It seems that contact is needed.
@ CuriousAmerican:
CuriousAmerican Said:
Plainly put, yes.
If the price for securing Israel’s existence is the reelection of Obama, so be it.
The survival of an innocent nation trumps any other consideration.
@ CuriousAmerican:
CuriousAmerican Said:
Interesting choice of words: “Iran does to Israel what Israel does to others”.
You know, there is a part of an action that goes beyond its physical description, and this part is the intention of the one who acts. If you slap my cheek in an attempt to attack me, this is called “assault”. If you slip and your palm lands on my cheek inadvertently, this is called an “accident”. The physical description of what went down is the same in both cases (5 fingers on my face), but we morally distinguish between the two cases on account of the intentions of the actor.
You seem to recognize this, by saying that the struggle of Israel with Iran is not morally neutral, but still you go on with the “others do to Israel what Israel does to them”.
Of course, Iran is not doing to Israel what Israel does to Iran: Israel is undertaking activities that will protect her citizens from Iranian aggression, whereas Iran is undertaking activities that have nothing to do with protecting its citizens from Israeli aggression (since Israel has never expressed aggression towards Iranian civilians) and everything to do with harming Israelis.
Israel is acting in self defense whereas Iran is perpetrating assault.
Ditto for Israel’s activities with regards to the Syrian reactor and Hizbollah.
Since you seem to recognize this, I am baffled by your “do unto others” expression in your last sentence.
Is there something you felt like sharing about eyes and slapped cheeks, the suppression of which made you end up with a sentence that sounds like attributing moral equivalence between Iran and Israel? (being an atheist, and therefore ignorant on theological doctrines, I am only guessing here).
@ Bernard Ross:
I believe we need to be more aware about strategic decisions… by Mr. Obama and Netanyahu.
After several years of doing very little specifically addressing the Iranian nuclear program, exactly, precisely now, barely two weeks before elections, the danger has suddenly increased to intolerable levels from last week’s, “there is plenty of time” level. NOTHING to do with Mr. Obama’s sinking in the polls like a lead ball after his true appearance last week.
Netanyahu, in turn is also eager to cash in so he also called suddenly for elections soon after the USA’s.
Meanwhile the Israeli chumps are walking about like zombies knowing that they are the only ones to be clobbered.
Iran has safely stored away his inventory by now…
Total embargo of Iran,1917 1920.No contact needed
Okay! Iran should be taken out, but do you want Obama to do it and win the election?
Both sides do this regularly. Israel flies over Hezbollah and flew over Syria to strike Syria’s reactor.
But an aerial probe is NOT a cyber attack. A cyber attack is computer driven, which Israel has done with the Stuxnet virus.
Israel usually booby traps its drones; a much more flagrant violation than Iran.
None of this is meant to say the struggle is morally neutral. Israel has a right to live; but the methods are equivalent.
The Iranians are quick students of Israeli methods.
Still Iran has to be taken out; just please do not get shocked if Iran does to Israel what Israel does to others.
october surprise? when everybody knows the surprise there is no surprise. will the surprise be that there is no surprise, or perhaps a nov. surprise, or maybe…..? Where there’s smoke there’s….mirrors