Arab watchers around the Middle East are waiting agog for US President Barack Obama’s address at the US Military Academy at West Point Wednesday, May 28, as forecasts abound that he will unveil a major policy U-turn on the Syrian conflict. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the new policy is in fact in motion ahead of the presidential disclosure. It is a program to expand US involvement in the war against the Assad regime and al Qaeda elements by providing moderate rebels with military training and a regular supply of sophisticated weapons, instead of the widely-spaced dribs and drabs hitherto. It may even include anti-air systems which Washington has withheld so far.
The Arab world sees Obama as moving to counteract Russian, Iranian and Hizballah intervention in the Syrian conflict. It is seen in some quarters as also payback for Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
At all events, a Saudi source commented in Riyadh: “For the first time in years, president Obama is ready to take direct action against Iran’s strategic interests in the Middle East.”
The West Point speech will also be watched carefully in Moscow, where expanded US input in support of the rebels is seen as a direct assault on the Russian position in Syria. DEBKAfile’s sources report that Moscow is preparing to beef up and upgrade its arms consignments to Syria so as to arm Assad for contending with the advanced American hardware incoming to the rebels.
Obama will unveil his plan for Syria the day after announcing his decision to leave 9,800 in Afghanistan – after the US combat mission is over at the end of 2014 – to train Afghan forces and support counter-terrorism operations. That decision is contingent on the next Afghan president signing a bilateral security agreement, which the incumbent Hamid Karzai refused to do. Washington appears confident that both of the candidates facing the June 14 run-off will agree to approve the accord.
The latest DEBKA Weekly 636 of May 23 disclosed President Obama’s revised approach to US military intervention in Syria, offering details of his plan. The US military training camps are already up and running, we reported. The rebel trainees arrive through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey, take the US courses and then cross into Syria.
The US army has furthermore laid out the secret routes for sending the new weapons supplies to the fighters in Syria.
By this policy reassessment, the Obama administration aims to achieve the following strategic objectives:
1. Creating a distance between the Israeli and Jordanian borders and the threats posed to those countries by the Syrian Army and its allies, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the Lebanese Hizballah and Iraqi Shiite militias.
2. Keeping those hostile forces at bay additionally from US military facilities in Jordan and Israel.
3. Establishing a US military intelligence foothold on the Damascus periphery to challenge Russian and Iranian exclusivity as the only major powers with operational access to the Syrian capital.
4. US military intelligence agents on the spot would seek to establish ties with high-ranking Syrian general command officers and the field commanders of units deployed in and around Damascus.
5. Creating a barrier to stave off Al Qaeda encroachments on Damascus or the Syrian-Jordanian and Syrian-Israeli borders and so preventing the jihadis from gaining jumping-off positions for attacks inside those countries.
Behind the Lines: A most discreet Israeli intervention in Syria By JONATHAN SPYER
http://www.jpost.com/Features/Front-Lines/Behind-the-Lines-A-most-discreet-Israeli-intervention-in-Syria-354848
@ bernard ross:
I saw that article yesterday forgot to post it. I agree with you on this matter as well as uour next post re: “RETURN”!!!
no about turn , just a return.
this was an explanation I gave a year ago for the US leaks against Israel when the jihadis were losing ground. I thought that the US wanted Israel to do the work but Israel is cautious.
Perhaps Israel has an understanding with russia that they will only attack under certain circumstances. Israel is cautious and knows that undertakings and promises can quickly evaporate especially when coming from the US or the Arabs. I have felt that Obama and the GCC wanted Israel to take up the slack when Obama had to back off due to Bengazi and russian threats of disclosure re the chem attacks.
Other than the faux adjective “moderate” we appear to be returning to square one which obtained prior to the blowup and exposure at Benghazi.
Basically in the 4 points they are talking about creating a buffer zone reaching to damascus. a resulting fragmented Syria.
“AQ” has been there without a problem. they are only concerned about ISIL the baathist moles and tools of Iran.
or perhaps a trade like at Yalta: Crimea for the fragmentation of syria.
How odd that we are going full circle back to the original plan like a staged drama.