By Ted Belman
Shortly after Pres Obama’s inauguration in 2009, Likud, with Netanyahu at its head, was tasked with forming the government. He was concerned to balance the pressure he was under by the right wing of Likud so he invited Ehud Barak, a former Chief of Staff of the IDF and former Prime Minister to break away from Labour by forming a new party. Netanyahu then invited it to join the Government. For Barak’s troubles he was made the Defense Minister, arguably the second most important ministry in the government. You will recall that Barak made an unprecedented offer to Arafat in the peace negotiations under President Clinton.
He appointed Michael Oren to the post of Ambassador to the US. While Oren had great credentials for the post he was also a left winger.
A few months later under wilting pressure from Obama, he delivered his first Bar Ilan speech in which he embraced the two state solution subject to certain caveats, namely, Palestine must be demilitarized, and must recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people. In addition Israel needs defensible borders with Jerusalem remaining the united capital of Israel. Just as when President Bush delivered his speech in 2002 in which he envisaged a Palestinian state subject the certain caveats, the world quickly forgot about the caveats and embraced the future Palestine.
Obama pressured for more and Netanyahu delivered by announcing a unilateral 10 month construction freeze east of the ’67 lines, except for Jerusalem. He quietly applied it to Jerusalem as well. Both of these concessions were contrary to Likud’s platform and alienated his base.
After four years in office he disbanded the government and called for new elections. This time he merged with Liberman’s party, Yisrael Beiteinu, hoping to get a total of over 40 seats. To his chagrin, the public didn’t buy it and the combined party only got 31 seats. Thus a weakened Netanyahu was forced to accept into the government the combo of Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (19) and Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi (12). But first he invited Tzipi Livni head of Hatnua (6) to join the government. He rewarded her with the Ministry of Justice and appointed her, head of Israel’s negotiating team. Livni was very experienced but was viewed as a left winger. The same went for Barak. Netanyahu’s base was further alienated.
Bayit Yehudi was Naftali Bennett’s creation. His pro-settlement, anti-Palestine and anti-prisoner release platform attracted many disgruntled right wing Likudniks thereby weakening Likud. Also Moshe Kahlon, a longtime member of Likud, withdrew and started his own party called Kulanu which campaigned on one issue namely lowering the cost of living. He complained that Likud had become complacent in that task.
This government came under intense pressure from the Obama administration to make “gestures” to the Palestinian Authority to induce them to enter negotiations. This was a bazarre demand because if a party doesn’t not want to enter negotiations, it certainly doesn’t want to make concessions or consummate a deal. Netanyahu was given a choice of “gestures”, either release over 100 convicted Palestinian terrorists or freeze construction of settlements. He chose the former, to much outrage, and ultimately imposed the freeze, too.
This government was short lived. With Lapid and Livni pulling in a leftward direction, it proved ungovernable. Netanyahu disbanded the government and called for new elections.
To his credit, Netanyahu, has done his utmost to ensure Israel’s security. In pursuit of this goal he planned to bomb Iran in 2012 to set back their nuclear program but was prevented from doing so by Obama’s leaks and pressures. Natanyahu never tires to repeat that he won’t jeopardize Israel’s security but never mentions our rights to Judea and Samaria. When the Levy Commission, which he appointed, determined that Judea and Samaria are not occupied territories according to the Geneva Conventions and the settlements are not illegal, Netanyahu inexplicably choose to shelve the report. Bennett has been pressing for its acceptance. It remains to be seen what Netanyahu will do.
During the election campaign, Congressman Boehner, Speaker of the House, invited him to address a joint session of the House and he leapt at the opportunity. Obama was apoplectic because he knew that Netanyahu had the potential to unseat his dash toward a bad deal with Iran. Obama did his utmost to discredit Netanyahu. He also mobilized Democrat Congressmen and Senator’s to boycott the speech and not one of the senior echelons of his administration was allowed to attend. Nevertheless the speech went ahead and was a resounding success. It greatly impacted the negotiations. In addition, Congress has prepared legislation that would require any deal with Iran to be treated as a treaty requiring the Senate’s approval. Finally, in a near unprecedented move, Sen Tom Cotton mobilized 47 Senators to sign a letter to Iran which said, “The next president could revoke such an executive agreement with the stroke of a pen and future Congresses could modify the terms of the agreement at any time.”
Back to the elections
Obama was determined to remove Netanyahu from power and to install the Herzog/Linvi combo named Zionist Union. He mobilized his election team headed by Jeremy Bird for the job and arranged for the State Department to fund them to the tune of $350,000 for the job. And they weren’t alone in this effort. The EU also funded the anti-Netanyahu campaign as did a number of prominent foreign philanthropies. A perfect storm. The US Senate has launched a bipartisan probe into the White House’s alleged funding of an NGO pushing for the ouster of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu choose to campaign on security and his experience. The Zionist Union mounted an “anybody but Bibi” campaign and mercilessly attacked him for everything, real or imagined. They supported Obama’s Iran policy and the peace process. They stressed many economic issues such as the high cost of housing and of living. Netanyahu choose not to defend himself on these issues which he might have well done giving the fact that under his leadership, Israel fared better in the aftermath of the economic crises which began in late 2008, than anyone else. And their unemployment rate was the lowest of any developed nation.
On Friday, last, the last polls published showed Likud (21 to 22) trailing Zionist Union (25 to 26). Bibi had to close the gap. He decided to play up the fact that he was behind and asked for the nationalist camp to vote for Likud rather that other right wing alternatives. He pleaded with them to help close the gap. The national camp voters were very concerned that he would not be returned to power though they had many differences of opinions with him.
On Sunday night, last, they mounted a massive rally in Tel Aviv which attracted 100,000 people though the left wing press reported only tens of thousands attended.
Thereafter, he promised to make Moshe Kahlon finance Minister no matter how many seats Kulanu got.
Then on Monday evening, just before Tuesday, the voting day, Herzog announced that the Zionist Union was no more and that Livni had withdrawn. This announcement was a bombshell exploding. What happened? What could it mean? Evidently internal polls conducted by the Zionist Union, suggested that the gap was closing quickly and that something must be done to win the election. Their internal polls also suggested that if Livni dropped out, the remaining party, Labour, may get an additional 4 seats. So the Hail Mary pass was thrown.
Exit polls published at 10.00 PM on Tuesday, showed Labour at 27 seats and Likud at either 27 or 28 seats. To Israelis this seemed to insure that Bibi would be tasked with forming the government. Overnight, the results got even better; 30 seats for Likud versus 24 for Zionist Union. A real blowout.
Netanyahu announced that he would form a government from among the parties on the right only and the religious parties. He had learned his lesson.
One of the reasons he had succeeded in attracting Likudniks back to Likud was because of his policy announcements made in the last few days. He announced his three “nos”; no to a Palestinian State, no to dividing Jerusalem and no to releasing terrorists. For good measure he added in one “yes”. Yes to building thousands of houses in Jerusalem in the face of all the (international) pressure.
As a result of returning to his base and appointing Kahlon, Finance Minister, the base returned to him. Bayit Yehudi dropped from a projected 12 seats to 8 and Kulanu dropped from 12 projected to 10 seats. The first person Natanyahu called after the exit polls were announced was Naftali Bennett.
The new government will have a stable majority of 68.
This is a brilliant victory for Netanyahu.
IL must repeat AD NAUSEAM the max conditions for a “mini Pal state”. In spite of the fact that the WEST DOES NOT WANT TO HEAR THEM.
Let ‘s get the Levy report which is supposed to support IL ownership of J & S despite what the West wants to impose on Israel.
honeybee Said:
Saw the movie and you are right 🙁
honeybee Said:
I can hear you already all the way to here. not very stealthy though 🙂
ani ish ben adam
Iraq (2003) war was good for Israel?!
There was a Saddam Hussen who lynched every radical Muslim and was happy to deny the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia any freedom of action in the Islamic world, while posing Israel no significant risk aside from rhetoric
Bush removed a gate that caused the flood of militancy suppressed by secular dictators
Not only didn’t Bush close the gate or managed the flooding, the Republicans lost to another Hussein who came to Administration on the promise to “let it flood”! And now due to US economic prostration, Iran is ruling the roost.
Bush, as had other presidents before him, ignored the US Constitution, and he will get his just rewards from history
I know now why in Latin sus means something entirely different to Hebrew
yamit82 Said:
Watch the movie ” Geronimo” desert camo ain’t hard. Soldier.
yamit82 Said:
I AM WOMAN HEAR ME ROAR
@ honeybee:
I live in the desert and can see open country for miles in all directions a sneak attack is unlikely but not impossible if you are real good and very sneaky.
@ mrg3105:
@ honeybee:
Girls let’s not quarrel over history. It was (the war ) good for Israel. It might turn out bad even worse in the future but chalk that up to the Butterfly effect no one could know the results and still don’t.
@ mrg3105:
oink oink oink
the only flying pig in Texas is the one that barely got his flying license from the USAF Reserve, then took America to the second worst war in its history
yamit82 Said:
Care those critter don’t “slip the loop” or double back on yawl, Cowboy.
honeybee Said:
Not pigs, but other slippery critters as quick and slippery.
yamit82 Said:
I told you Darlin, pigs fly in Texas!!!! ah ha
David Axelrod ? @davidaxelrod
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Tightness of exits in Israel suggests Bibi’s shameful 11th hour demagoguery may have swayed enough votes to save him. But at what cost?
It was Bushs’ fault ass hole!!! 🙂
yamit82 Said:
Then get a rope ,Boy. Yawl ain’t never roped no pigs ??????
honeybee Said:
Ya gotta catch em first then stick em and gut em before you ca BBQ them. Pigs are slippery beasts hard to grip and handle.
mar55 Said:
Nothing happen to HaLevi. He is in Texas learning how trap and BBQ all those flying pigs about which yamit82 is so concerned.
Ted Belman Said:
I’ve been wishing this for several years — basically ever since making aliya. Attending the AngloVote event in Jerusalem a few weeks ago, I said as much afterwards to several of the speakers: Dov Lipman, Uri Bank and Ashley Perry. None of them disagreed with the idea, but they seemed rather resigned to the status quo.
If it were possible for a “greener” like me to form an effective party here, I would gather a group of like-minded people to compromise amongst themselves and form a coalition with a definite platform addressing both the political (security and international relations) and the socio-economic (social stratification / elites / monopolies / tycoons / cost of living / housing / etc) exigencies.
@ mrg3105:
From the day the President gives the go ahead he will have initially 3 weeks I think to form a government then if still no government and additional 2 weeks can be given if at the end of the extension the next largest party with the most votes get a crack at it if in the end no coalition can be formed new elections will be called.
Could be, shmood be…
He isn’t and anyone who has studied Jewish history would understand the comment
Dumdemanit is fine by me 🙂
mrg3105
I repeat the above passage of Yamit82 could well be of the Left Fascist David Icke. You wish to comment mrg31205 or you want to divert? With ad hominem!
Felix, go and study Australian history, and see how 2016 works out for Liberal mates who don’t even know anymore what they stand for and whom they serve…mate
Yamit82
I will come to your “apología” for your conduct during this election on this board later
But note that the above could well have been written by Left Fascist David Icke
Study Jewish history not with you as lecturer mate!
when is the new cabinet expected to be identified?
@ yamit82:
We’ll see if it translates to anything concrete, at the moment, it appears to be a trial balloon – he needs an Arab partner and there isn’t one. If he can find one, I agree with you that he’ll scrap his pre-election promise as if it never existed. The problem is what he wants and what the Arabs want is not amenable (under our current circumstances) to a compromise. If the Arabs were ready to agree to settlement blocs and to accept Israel as a Jewish State, he would sign an agreement with them right away. If that hasn’t happened yet, its not because he won’t do a deal but because the Arabs won’t accept one on the terms he wants. Incidentally, the international media’s claim he’s a rigid hard-liner has no basis in reality.
@ NormanF:There you go again making unsupported assumptions that they are just making proforma platitudes and have no intentions to follow through. They may demad conditions or qualify under what conditions but you can’t say “there will be no Palis State'” yesterday before the elections and you want to negotiate 2 state agreement an hour after you win an election.
From the get go including the Bar Ilan speech BB has indicated he wants to make a deal….. I believe he means it and that he is serious. He may not want to dismantle settlements but he wants a deal and is not opposed to a Palis state perse.
Watch the make up of coalition and how he goes about it and who gets what…. Remember he gave Barak the Defense portfolio when he had only 4 mandates in his faction.
@ yamit82:
Tzachi Hanegbi is totally unprincipled…. maybe he and his boss believe making all the right noises will lessen Israel’s problems. They can’t be waved away with mere platitudes.
Along with trying to be all things to all people.
@ Avigail:
I agree and he will revert, He has no brakes in the potential coalition except Bennett. Don’t think he will allow himself and the coalition to be at the mercy of any coalition component for long. He will have to bring in another party like Yesh Atid either as a whole or in part if they split.
NormanF Said:
You are reading into his motivations what sounds nice and reasonable to you but IMO far from the truth. You cannot separate BB from all of his positions and action s prior to 2009. I maintain he was totally consistent.
Here within hrs. his flunky makes these statements and I believe he and BB are serious.
After Elections, Netanyahu Loyalist Says Israel ‘Delighted’ to Renew Palestinian Talks
http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/03/18/netanyahu-loyalist-says-israel-delighted-to-renew-palestinian-talks/
@ yamit82:
I believe on the Iran issue and on the question of territorial concessions, he is adamant. He is flexible on everything else. Well when he was first elected in 2009, he felt the need to build a bridge to the new President and also to test Arab intentions about a genuine peace deal. Neither turned out to be worth the ideological compromises he felt compelled to make for them. Neither Obama nor the Arabs are going to extend him the benefit of the doubt and he knows nothing he can offer them will please them. He’s a flawed person and of course we should watch his actions in office carefully. Consider though that even though everything you say is true, Israelis still voted for him because as screwed up as he is on some issues, he still beat the alternatives.
@ NormanF:
You can’t make up your mind ??? For years you have been bashing BB as or more strongly than me and now you want to believe him?
I will gauge where Bb is going when I see the make up of the new government, what he pays for them to join, who he elevates and who he screws. I will gauge where BB is going when the Europeans and or Obama begin to push back without any brakes to slow or hold them back and how he reacts.
I long ago shut my ears to his rhetoric and just watched his move on the ground. He never was forced to make his bae Ilan speecha nd we knew it would bring more pressure and delegitimization of Israel around the world why didn’t he see it??? In all of his mostly failed ( by results seen) 9 years in office his character is a given as are his weaknesses. Anyone expecting BB to not be BB is someone who simply does not want to face the truth. I hope this tiger will change his stripes but seeing is believing and I’m not willing to give him the benefit of doubt an more chances to screw up…. By that I mean giving him a blank check of support.
@ yamit82:
I think on the other hand, he is quite sincere in renouncing the Bar Ilan speech and pledging Israel’s right to act alone if necessary. Netanyahu understands the world has profoundly changed for the worse and Israel cannot ever put its security into the hands of others again. For him, this is a non-negotiable principle and he won’t budge on it. This is what he communicated to Congress this month forthrightly, a stand endorsed by the people of Israel.
ArnoldHarris Said:
It will happen and we will return to Yamit and rebuild it. It is part of our biblical borders and technically as Holy as Jerusalem. In the next war with Egypt it will happen of that i;m sure. Gotta have faith and belief otherwise you will always judge wrongly because linear logical thought can never be applied to Jews or Israel. We operae on a different set of principles…..This election could be one example but I know you reject non Aristotelian thinking and conclusions. Study our history without the blinders and you will see patterns that always repeat.
@ yamit82:
Yamit:
I would be less than honest if I failed to tell you directly that I was totally wrong about dependence on Israeli political polls, and that you were totally correct.
I’m not trying to suck up to you by writing this. But I was raised by my father to play it straight with everybody, including people with whom I argue.
Hopefully, the prime minister will play it straight with Jewish nationalism. Chances are by now that he knows he has nothing at all to gain or lose trying to crawl up the ass of the current president of the USA, the cringing and rotten liberal leftist Jews of this country, or anybody else. They are enemies of the Jewish nation that is engaged in reassembling and rebuilding itself in Eretz_Yisrael. Nothing will change that, and the Jewish nation must build its internal unity and the power to enforce its national rights and its national will in and around our ancient homeland. In order to achieve that, Israel must gain independence and autonomy from everybody; no exceptions.
I didn’t know you lived around Dimona. I hope the day will come when Israel rebuilds your namesake Jewish town of Yamit, right on the spot where the cowards destroyed it.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Avigail Said:
I agree especially as the pressure mounts on him from without and from within. He will probably try to split Lapids party as half want into the coalition like Piron and the other half are ideologically on the left. BB still will need a safety net proteting him should any of the partners threaten or decide to bolt. Bennett with 8 and even lieberman with 6 can threated to bring down current coalition and certainly Kahlon with 10 mandates. Here is where 9 or 10 mandates is as good as 20 for bargaining purposes.
Interesting results and it’s still not final until all the absentee ballots and IDF ballots are counted. Then we don’t as yet know all of the odef vote agrreements 1-2 mandated can shift after the count.
I have been telling all of you from the beginning not to mind the polls till the last week. The failed pollsters almost till the end claimed some 20% undecided but most never calculated thase who were Firm against those who were wobbly.
Israelis especially those on the right notoriously lie when responding to pollsters and exist polls, making election calls based on them tenuous . If you notice I have largely remained quiet on election discussions mostly because they are to speculative and to fluid to relate to them too seriously until the final days or actual vote tally is announced.
The postmortems will be most interesting but no one not Likud members and supporters and not even BB expected the result…. Something happened and I think a combination of things coming together at the right time created a perfect storm in favor of the Likud and BB.
I Live in Dimona and it’s towns like this and Jerusalem that are the likud’s base and electoral reservoir. Few commenting on this site not the pollster of the political elites have ever gauged the mentality of these communities correctly.
BB partially did and was correct in his late tactic to blame Obama and the Myriad of foreign Interests trying to bring the Likud down BB cried foul and it resonated and these people rose up in a tribal way to save BB from the bad guys. Israeli elites never understood this emotion here and got taken in.
BB since 1996-1999 has never had a homogeneous government and always sought the left as a balance to the right and as a fig leaf to blame and to show off to the outside world.
This time the constellation may have locked him into a most homogeneous right of center government.. New territory and i think it is exactly what he hoped NEVER would happen.
Now he is stuck with a potential coalition that he will need to take full responsibility and overall identification with.
He will soon be tested like never before as the Arabs the Europeans and Obama can be expected to react without restraints against us.
@ Ted Belman:
CONGRATULATIONS! to all. Ted, I’m wondering. What happened to SHamuel Halevi? He spent the last few weeks posting and enlightening us with his knowledge of the political system in Israel and, now that is time to celebrate the vote against Obama & Co. he is absent from this forum. Is he well? I hope so. Will someone find out how is he?
@ Ted Belman:
This would involve Netanyahu being more like Bennett and Kahlon, not the other way around.
Given what he has done during the Likud’s primaries, fat chance that he’ll do that.
Bibi has driven Likud more to the Left and treated those who dare remind him of the official party’s platform as criminals.
I don’t see him going further right any time soon.
@ Ted Belman:
Ted:
Setting up a re-expanded Likud under Netanyahu’s overall leadership, but based on strengthened political positions both of Bennett and Kahlon, is a capital idea. That would be in keeping with the idea you expressed earlier of moving Israeli politics into a bi-party system based on Labor to the left and Likud on the right. Bennett and Kahlon both came out of Likud, and there is no reason that both, with their followers, could not return home. When the time comes, one of them could well emerge as the next great leader of both HaLikud and the State of Israel.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
This will probably be Netanyahu’s last term as Prime Minister. The next four years ahead will be grave times and also times of promise.
I am hoping that by the end of this government that Likud, Kahlon and Bennett will merge into a rightwing Likud. There is no reason to compete with each other. They are so close. This would involve Netanyahu being more like Bennett and Kahlon, not the other way around. They would dominate Israeli politics for many years to come.
Jews rescued Israel from Antisemitism but nothing is solved and especially why support for Left Fascists at all and now new factor is number of Arab fascist Mks linking up with world Antisemitism.
Ted, Very good article and recap.