T. Belman. Caspit intimates that Bennett’s reforms undermine democracy. I think the opposite. He suggests that Kahlon and Rivlin will fight such reforms. He also prefers to bend to the will of the international community like Oren does. I think that being sovereign is more important than kissing up.
The current estimate is that in just a few weeks, once he finishes putting his right-wing, ultra-Orthodox coalition together, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will call Zionist Camp leader Isaac Herzog, inviting him to join the coalition. He’ll offer a similar invitation to Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid, too. Netanyahu won’t be doing this out of love or admiration for Herzog or Lapid. He will have no choice.
Netanyahu’s fourth government, which he will be hard at work patching together over the next few weeks, will be the first in which he has no diplomatic “fig leaf” to mollify the international community in general and the Barack Obama administration in particular. His problem is that the chances of either Herzog or Lapid responding positively to his call tend toward zero. They’ll let him simmer in his own juices, become an outcast in the international community, plead like a pauper for every Security Council veto, and try to withstand the tsunami of ostracism and boycotts expected to rain down on him from Europe, all with the express approval of the United States.
Netanyahu insists on having a fig leaf in every government he forms. During his first term, 1996-99, he received “in-house coverage” from Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai. Mordechai was a moderate pragmatist, who insisted on keeping an open line of communications with Washington and had an especially warm relationship with the United States. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak played the same role in Netanyahu’s second government from 2009-13, while in his third government, 2013-15, it was Hatnua head Tzipi Livni, with a dose of Lapid.
Netanyahu’s new government will include Yisrael Beitenu head Avigdor Liberman in his new, far-right incarnation, HaBayit HaYehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett, the ultra-Orthodox parties and Kulanu head Moshe Kahlon. There is no obvious fig leaf among them.
Now, of all times, however, a fig leaf like that is more essential than ever. Now, of all times, after Netanyahu lurched wildly to the right in his campaign, just to survive. Now, of all times, after Netanyahu disavowed his Bar Ilan speech and announced that there will be no Palestinian state on his watch, only to be forced, one day after the election, to summonAmerican interviewers in a panic just so that he could explain to them that he really didn’t take back his Bar Ilan speech after all. That he has remained at the same spot exactly. It is the reality around him that changed, not him.
So who will Netanyahu’s current fig leaf be? Kahlon is a moderate Likudnik, who has recently adopted a pragmatic centrist approach. Ostensibly, he could fill the spot, but it’s hard to believe that he would focus on diplomatic issues during his upcoming term. Kahlon is candidate for the finance minister role, which will keep him very busy. His field of expertise is not in the diplomatic sphere. The international arena really is foreign to him. He will not commit political suicide just to save Netanyahu’s neck, whether it is in Washington or Brussels.
Could the responsible adult in the room this time around be Shas leader Aryeh Deri? The chances of that happening are equally unrealistic. On a personal level, Deri really does identify with the center-left. The problem is that his voters are situated on the right. And Deri can expect to receive the Interior Ministry in Netanyahu’s fourth government. It is hardly a position that provides him with diplomatic leverage.
It’s not even worth discussing Bennett in this context this time around, but what about Liberman? He is asking for the Defense Ministry, though it is highly unlikely that Netanyahu will give it to him. If he does give Liberman the Defense Ministry, he will be forced to give Bennett the Foreign Ministry as compensation. Imagine a government headed by Netanyahu, with Defense Minister Liberman seated to his right and Foreign Minister Bennett seated to his left. Israel would be better off in self-imposed exile in Siberia. Liberman also broke far to the right in the campaign, after the police investigation against him blocked his way to the center of the political spectrum. This means that he must continue to align himself with the right, at least for now. It is his base and the sole source of his political energy. Liberman is an unpredictable politician, who is capable of just about anything. He could stay in the opposition or even retire suddenly from political life.
So who is left? It looks like the only viable candidate is Kahlon, and even then, only in part. Netanyahu has yet to meet with Kahlon. Apparently, that meeting is scheduled to take place next week. They’ve already agreed on the Finance Ministry, but Kahlon, without whom Netanyahu has no government, is expected to present a long list of demands and commitments from the new government. He also bears a deep-seated grudge against Netanyahu, who pushed Kahlon out of the Likud upon the success of his popular “cellphone revolution,” when he was minister of communications.
Apart from the professional demands that he will inevitably make, which are vital to the success of his planned reforms (involving banks, the cost of housing and cost of living), he’s also expected to make certain demands pertaining to Israeli democracy itself. One of these, for instance, will be the right to veto anti-democratic legislation of the kind that HaBayit HaYehudi Party proposes about twice a week on average. Kahlon will not allow any harm to befall the democratic nature of Israel, the rights of minorities, etc. He is expected to have a powerful ally in the person of President Reuven Rivlin. Rivlin doesn’t care for Netanyahu either, and that’s putting it mildly. He will provide Kahlon with whatever public umbrella he needs to maintain his equilibrium.
In any case, the next government will be made up of people who can’t stand Netanyahu, and who would prefer Herzog over him. The only exception is Bennett, also a longtime bitter rival of Netanyahu’s but for whom Herzog is not an option. Liberman is seething with vengeance toward Netanyahu. So is Deri. Kahlon prayed for Herzog to win so that he could join his government. Herzog would have let Kahlon get on with his job in peace and quiet. He would have celebrated Kahlon’s successes along with him. On the other hand, Kahlon knows that Netanyahu will try to trip him up, and even if Kahlon somehow does manage to succeed, he knows that Netanyahu will try to curb that success and take credit for it.
Politically, the new government could actually be stable. It is more or less homogenous on the diplomatic front. There are no irresolvable differences on the social and economic fronts. Any really big problems that could challenge it are likely to pop up from the outside. In my previous article here, I mentioned the “reassessment of relations” that President Gerald Ford’s administration announced in 1975, in all matters pertaining to its policies toward Israel. Just yesterday, March 19, the Obama administration used the exact same term upon learning that Netanyahu had disavowed his Bar Ilan speech and continues to make racist and anti-democratic statements. I wrote about how the Obama administration did not know how to make Netanyahu pay for his antics, and that this enabled Netanyahu to portray himself to the Israeli public as the man who brought Obama down on his knees and be lauded as a triumphant victor upon his return from Washington. Only now that he won the election did the Americans remember to bring up “reassessment.” It was too little, too late.
If Netanyahu does have a right-wing, ultra-Orthodox government, if the peace process disappears from the region once and for all, and if Netanyahu does nothing to try and restore trust between him and the Palestinians, Israel could find itself in diplomatic siege in less than a year. Netanyahu is an experienced individual. He is well aware of the situation. His renewed support for the Bar Ilan speech in the interviews he gave just one day after the election is proof of that. The question is whether he will be imaginative enough to reboot the process. No, this does not refer to the peace process, which is supposed to reach some target or other. No, it refers to the diplomatic process from the famous “Maison de Netanyahu,” which is not supposed to get anywhere, and whose sole purpose is to waste time by trudging along in place.
One such move could be a new Bar Ilan speech from Netanyahu, which emphasizes a regional agreement and the Arab peace initiative. Should he take that route, the only serious problem Netanyahu is expected to run into will be Bennett. At that point (a year from now), he will be happy to replace Bennett with Lapid or Herzog. He can then reboot his government, inject more positive DNA into it, as far as the rest of the world is concerned, and set off on a new path. It is also possible that at that point, Herzog or Lapid will be weak enough to say “yes” to Netanyahu, for reasons of national interest, of course. In that case, Netanyahu can expect a new life, a new coalition and perhaps a brand new start. Until we get there, however, if somehow we do, things will likely be very unpleasant around here.
@ yamit82:
Yamit, I hate to disappoint you, my friend. Saying “no” is what Netanyahu and his lieutenants don’t have in their vocabulary. Israel does not have a Jewish Gromyko, which is a pity.
Seems to be a very anti-Bibi-biased article, which I see other commenters state. I liked the Admiral’s talk that Yamit provided the link to. My wife early on had that opinion about Obama, I was late to the party on that.
@ Yidvocate:
So Bibi doesn’t have a “fig leaf”.
@ yamit82:
We’ll see, bro’. As I said I cannot worry for something that is not done. There is much that is already happening right now. Plus it’s almost 3:00 am. I should be in bed.
But thank you for the tip anyway. G-d bless you and have a good night.
Comment in moderation and is one of the reasons I have cut my comments way down after over 8 years.
I don’t have that much time to waste writing to be moderated
@ Avigail:
The word here is that Arnan Milchin is trying to broker a deal to get Labor to join BB. Nobody denies the report. He is good friends with everybody and would not be doing this if BB didn’t ask him. BB is not only agreeable he needs Labor to balance his coalition and to protect him from the whims of the smaller parties. He will throw all of the likud wannabees under the bus as they can’t do anything about it. Bennett should have made a deal with Lieberman and the Haredi parties. Package deal. He has pulled the scam off so many times it’s amazing they all for for it again and again…. he will get labor at lest some of em and or Lapid at least some of them . None of his potential coalition parties will bother BB if he sticks to basic principle of the Likud and the voters who gave him 30 seats. Tells me he has plans that will upset many if not most on the right sooner or later.
@ yamit82:
Agreed. I doubt Ben has it in him but who knows?
The king’s heart is in the hand of G-d, so there is that. 🙂
In his book, “Crazy States” Israeli General Dror discusses Qaddhafi and argues that sometimes it pays to act as if one were crazy. Look what happened to Qaddhafi.
Russia’s most successful foreign minister was Andrei Gromyko, “Mister No.” At his time, Russia was not particularly powerful: America had vastly superior resources. He was successful specifically because of his refusal to negotiate, which masked Russia’s weakness.
The refusal to compromise must be supported by the determination to win: the staunchest defense fails if it is passive. Russia exploited every opportunity to foment conflicts abroad: small Russian aid to Vietnam caused massive American expenses. Palestinian Arabs exploit every crack in Israeli security to conduct terrorist attacks. Israel, however, shrinks from acting against the Arabs. Instead, Israel must become very active against them. The actions may remain low-profile and inexpensive, but the publicized raids must be conducted daily.
Instead of trying to appear nice, Israel must up the stakes and refuse to cooperate. At that point, the West would either blame the Arabs for not yielding to the mad Jews, or forget the issue as it ignores scores of unsolvable conflicts around the world.
@ yamit82:
The letter they just sent him is very bipartisan… Not that I trust them a bit to be effective, but that alone is a surprise (considering how vengeful Obozo can be for any offense, perceived or real)
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/03/23/367-traitors-majority-of-u-s-house-crafts-letter-to-obama-condemning-prospective-iran-deal/
@ yamit82:
I have read many of your comments over the past few words. Mostly they seem filled with stinging critiques of the honesty and probity of leaders such as Prime Minister Netanyahu. But nowhere have I read your opinions on which particular public personality — choosing at least from those who are electable and in position to assemble the kind of coalition necessary to carry out the policies that you and most of the rest of the Israpundit commenters favor.
In short, you criticize readily but rarely name a potential leader better equipped to run the government of the State of Israel. Until recently, I thought I too had many reasons to distrust Mr Netanyahu, and I banged away at my keyboard accordingly. But you have not, even in the face of growing crises facing the Jewish nation and the Jewish state.
I have not forgotten your little lecture to me regarding the perils of linear thinking as taught by Aristotle. And I admit that nothing of that particular Greek philosopher seems to fit the spiritualism of Jewish religious thought. But there are times in which, when dealing with a hostile world, spiritualism gets Jews nothing but tickets for one-way rides in freight cars running direct to the sidings inside this or that Auschwitz. So, with all due respect to you, I will stick with level-headed attention to the connectivity of cause and effect as applied to the rise and fall of policies, governments, nations, and states.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
YV, Avi, BK, Econ, Norm,
I agree with all of you regarding this politicized ploy from Mr Caspit.
Prime Minister Netanyahu broke up his third government precisely to get rid of disruptive elements within his own party and those of partner parties and factions that made up that government. He now has power over a coalition more less united in national purpose and political direction. I think it unlikely that he would invite back into his government any or all leftist-oriented parties which have histories of giving him little more than a hard time.
He knows probably better than anybody in Israel that those leftist personalities and their parties would seek and gain political help from the enemy leader in the White House whose reputation and foreign policies he brought into profound distrust by collaborating with the Republican Party leadership of the Congress of the United States. Irrespective of whatever calumnies of which Prime Minister Netanyahu may be culpable — or perhaps merely capable — Mr Netanyahu never has been a practitioner of purposeful stupidity or undercutting his political power base. Nobody gets elected to chiefdom of four Israeli governments without having learned to make new or preferably no mistakes.
Mr Netanyahu and his rightist coalition partners have won a strong victory with the overwhelming backing of the majority of Israel’s voting electorate. Even those of us — including me — who occasionally view democracy as deplorable take pride in the obvious fact that democracy in Israel appears to function even better than it does in the United States. The Jewish nation now permanently reassembling itself on the soil of Eretz-Yisrael has been spoken to, and has responded accordingly at the ballot box. Therefore, I judge that the time has come for all of us to let the prime minister and his new government run the country. That and nothing else, is what they were elected to do. The rest of us can suggest, pen screeds, and comment on those written by others. But the power rests in the hands, and even the Jewish souls, of those so elected.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ Avigail:
I tend to agree with you and Europe is in no postion to dictate anything to anyone. A- Because they are militarily impotent B- Because they are mostly economically basket cases and greed is what drives them even more than hatered for Israel and Jews.
I think as much as he can Obama will use surrogates like the EU to leverage against us.
***** Congress will not save our Borscht either… Talk is cheap but partisan American politics over all.
In the end it’s up to BB and I have no faith or confidence in him….
Someone else is missing something – Obama – he no longer has his mask on – revealed! the Jew-Israel hater. Now let all America see him as he plans to remodel the White House as a mosque.
Economist Said:
You mean like he was on Obama care? Immigration? etc. etc.???
I have no idea on what you base such optimism? I hope you are not a betting gentleman because a bet against your opinions looks like winners from here.
Ben Caspit like the bulk of journalists in Israel – is a leftist who viscerally dislikes Netanyahu.
The problem with his analysis is Netanyahu’s coalition partners don’t want to be swallowed up by a national unity government. Neither does the Likud. And Netanyahu really wants Labor as a junior partner not in a relationship of equals. So that is going to go nowhere. Above all, nothing Netanyahu could offer Obama is likely to placate him.
Once Obama gets over his hissy fit, cooler heads are likely to prevail. The alternative is for him to be totally held hostage by Congress, which controls the purse strings.
Ben Caspit is not exactly an admirer of Bibi from his leftist perch. Who cares what he says.
Nothing – and no one – will placate Obama: he is anti-Israel by design. Always been.
But I must say that – having forced myself to read this crapola till the end – the most shocking part was:
They’ll let him simmer in his own juices, become an outcast in the international community, plead like a pauper for every Security Council veto, and try to withstand the tsunami of ostracism and boycotts expected to rain down on him from Europe, all with the express approval of the United States.
For Caspit, everything is about Netanyahu, nothing is about the country. Pretty revealing.
As a conclusion, there are many reasons why I know Europe better than Mr. Caspit: The EU will talk trash – they always do – but there’s no way they will sanction Israel in any way (not really because they like us), except if it is really forced upon them.
And I don’t see how it could be forced upon them since they have veto power in the UN.
So Bibi doesn’t have a “fig leaf”. Isn’t a fig leaf used to cover up something you are ashamed of? That a determining number of Israelis voted for him and arguably even in greater numbers with his last minute swing to the right, should be a cause of embarrassment and shame is more hallucination from the demented left who would prefer to see ISIS overrun the country then upset the Obama administration. These lemmings pose the greatest existential danger to Israel’s continued existence right up there with Iran and the Islamo-Nazis. We have a fifth and a sixth column in our midst – the Arabs and the suicide bent left.