BUT HERZOG TURNED HIM DOWN
In new government, Erdan designated for education, Katz – Housing, Akunis – communications
DEBKAfile Special Report March 23, 2015, 12:02 PM (IDT)
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu only waited for the March 17 election results before sending his close adviser Nathan Eshel to Zionist Union leader Yitzhak Herzog with an invitation to join him in a new unity government headed by the two largest parties of which they are leaders. Herzog turned him down and preferred to remain leader of the oppositon.
The invitation was proffered notwithstanding Netanyahu’s campaign vow not to share power with the left-leading Zionist Union, and showed him to be pragmatic enough to duck and weave when he finds it opportune.
He displayed the same equivocation on the Palestinian state issue.
While running for election, he declared that a Palestinian state would not rise on his watch. But then, when Washington turned on the heat, he explained that his fundamental support for two states had not changes but the circumstances had. In other words, the prime minister left the door ajar.
In reality, as DEBKAfile has reported before, even if Netanyahu was in total accord with Obama on a Palestinian state and Israel’s future boundaries, this would not change the fundamental fact that Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas has resolutely turned his back on peace diplomacy in the American format.
In recent conversations with a number of Arab leaders, Abbas made it clear that, like them, he had washed his hands of President Barack Obama and his policies. If negotiations with Israel were ever to resume, he would prefer direct dialogue with Netanyahu rather than going back to the old track brokered by Secretary of State John Kerry.
According to DEBKAfile’s sources, in the run-up to the Israeli election, Abbas sent out feelers to Netanyahu for a secret meeting. Netanyahu refused.
Any new peace bid therefore would most likely originate in Cairo with President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi, rather than Obama and Kerry.
For now, until Wednesday, when President Reuven Rivlin formally grants Netanyahu four weeks’ grace to form his fourth government, the prime minister has begun penciling in key cabinet portfolios. This time round, his Likud has the unprecedented advantage of numbers, having won 30 Knesset seats compared with 18 in the last house, and came out of the election way ahead of the smaller partners. Still, in the back-door negotiations already in progress, the competition for ministerial posts is already hot and the horse trading tough.
The government’s initial shape to date is sketched in by DEBKAfile’s political sources:
Defense Minister stays in the hands of Moshe Ya’alon (Likud); Finance most likely goes to Moshe Kahlon (former Likud minister who broke away to create a new party Kulanu which ran on the social ticket), Education – Gilad Erdan (Likud).
Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beitenu) is likely to keep Foreign Affairs, where he has always left policy-making to the prime minister and confined himself to administering the department. This situation suits Netanyahu’s book better than an unknown quantity
Yoav Gallant, general (ret) and former candidate for chief of staff, is tabbed for Internal Security (including the Police). He is a new face in government who entered politics this year on the Kulanu list.
Yisrael Katz (Likud), the highly successful Transport Minister and ardent Netanyahu loyalist, is likely to be promoted to Housing and Construction, a department which is hugely influential on the economy and the shape of settlement in Judea and Samaria.
\Katz is keen on the post and Netanyahu wants him there, but he may relent at the last minute and let it go to Naftali Bennett (Habayit Hayehudi) – depending on how the negotiations go.
Another of the key portfolios that Likud will keep is Media Communications, with Ofir Akunis topping the list of candidates. The prime minister is planning major reforms in the television industry to complement the overhaul begun last year in the Public Broadcasting Authority.
He proposes shutting down the privately-owned Channel 10, which is kept out of bankruptcy only by repeated injections of government funding. To prevent Channel 2 from becoming a monopoly, the plan is to split it into two separate channels.
The Interior Ministry has been provisionally assigned to the Shas leader Aryeh Deri and Health is to revert to Yakov Litzman (United Torah).
Subsidiary ministerial posts will no doubt be awarded to at least one female Knesset Member, Miri Regev of Likud and/or Ayelet Shaked of Habayit Hayehudi.
Alongside cabinet-building, the prime minister has also contacted certain business leaders, some of whom served in former governments, to offer them jobs as directors general or department heads in the ministries assigned to non-Likud politicians – like, for instance, head of the budget department in the Treasury. Netanyahu seeks to plant guardians of his policies in those departments. But he might find this plan a hurdle in his negotiations with party leaders, who may refuse to work with officials acting as Netanyahu’s eyes and ears.
The party leaders will most probably take the opportunity of the Feast of Passover, April 3-10, for time out and return to intense bargaining for a new government after the break.
Avigail Said:
That makes the US president anti-American. But we suspected this for a while. An uncompromising IDEOLOGUE and not a politician.
Dude.
367 Traitors: Majority of U.S. House signs letter to Obama warning of opposition to Iran deal
Quote:
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
I agree. Netanyahu does not want to rock the boat. He wants to keep power. As he has shown since the election, ideology is expendable and is subordinated to one overriding goal: remaining King Bibi.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
When Hell freezes over. The only change that can occur with him is: “WORSE AND WORSE”. Wait and see.
A bad deal is going to be signed and the sanctions lifted but they don’t have the bomb yet. We’ll see when they approach break out time.
As of now, I don’t think ISIS is ready/eager to cronfront Israel any time soon.
We need both. 😉
@ Avigail:
I was concerned at a possible change of direction by Mr. Obama, but the news so far are that no change is seen.
Ben Caspit spins it otherwise on his article.
Including all in one bag, aka “coalition”, would require some 60 ministers postings… Only a fraction of that is allowed.
Meanwhile at the farm nobody is idling while Netanyahu is playing at being a puppet meister.
He has to start getting busy with Iran getting nuclear bombs and ISIS being some 12 km from Katzrin… They also watch the news.
We need real leadership not Nero’s or the Medici’s expertise.
Netanyahu must deliver the goods or…
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
So I don’t get it: if you believe this assessment is correct (and I agree), why were you nervous about the possibility of a union with the Left in the other thread?
@ NormanF:
The real power of the Likud with Netanyahu up there is that reported to within 48 hours before election.
He would have lost by three or four points.
I know in person many voters that were not voting for the Likud and decided to vote at that time not to prop up but to beat down the Hussein Obama massive attempt to rape of the Jewish State. Among the ranks jokingly we called the Likud the boot.
Should he push his luck and new elections come to be. he will not be supported.
Again. Hertzog, Peres, Livni, Galant, Dagan, Oren and others were not bought by Mr. Obama to save Netanyahu by joining him in an unity cauldron, they were bought and are still in payroll to take Netanyahu out of the PM’s office.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
He is keeping all his options open. My guess is his partners will compromise rather than be jettisoned for Herzog or have to face new elections. That way Netanyahu is not exposed to blackmail from any one party in the coalition.
@ yamit82:
What’s your take?
@ Bear Klein:
Excellent post.
@ yamit82:
He couldn’t stand Lapid and Livni. Its interesting he fired them rather than Bennett. He found them too much trouble to manage. Since being cut down to size, Bennett is pliable and no longer a real threat to him. Herzog is now far too strong to be a partner. If he had been as weak as Livni appeared to be during the last election, Netanyahu would have brought him on board. His political gamesmanship is simple: keep your friends close and your enemies closer still. That’s why he is back again in power.
The right wing parties that have chosen Bibi are now going to bargain hard for Ministries and platform choices. Since basically Bibby is going to need all these parties to agree to what the Likud views as reasonable. The main negotiating ploy for the Likud is to let someone say well if you guys are not reasonable we will have to find Herzog and make a deal with him.
There will be many rumors and intentional bluffs from all the parties in the next several weeks until a coalition is formed.
Reacting to every bluff, rumor, conjecture and theory will prove to be pointless.
Bluff number one come and gone Lieberman said he did not have to recommend Bibi if he is not defense minister. He did recommend him.
Folks this is politics Israeli style and it is full of bravado and bullshit. If we get to near day 40 or 41 (only 42 days allowed to form a coalition) then it will be nervous time. Then anything is possible, including a deal with Herzog.
Why did BB force elections now at this time? He didn’t have to. Nobody forced or pressured him. So why? When you reach a consensus agreement over why,… everything else can fall into place. Consider that even at the time the polls were not very favorable to the Likud Low 20’s-%. His coalition seemed stable enough. So why and at this time???
Monomaniacal frothing against Netanyahu (sour grapes?) when we have seen no new developments serves only to discredit the grudge-holders.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
Didn’t make the connection between A7 and Channel 7. I read their site but don’t watch them.
Someone at A7 said something very true: the kippot srugot tend to believe the Left as if it was Daf-Yomi.
So correction on the above post: neither play into the Left’s hand, not give in to paranoia.
So, dear Shmuel, can we agree to dump on Bibi when he really does it instead of speculating like that?
@ ArnoldHarris:
Thanks Arnold.
Whatever the esteem I’ve got for Shmuel and other Israeli posters here, I think that we need to tune down the hysteria and GET REAL.
Dark clouds are gathering at the horizon and are rapidly coming towards us: the WH thug and the EU are ready to prey on us in any way possible.
Not that I fear them – because I fear only G-d – but this is the time when we have to unite behind the guy we just elected – knowing in what dismay we would have been with the other sissy.
If Ben is so hated by our enemies, then there must be something really good about him.
And the fact that he is seen as “strong” and “uncompromising” by them – whereas we here know that reality is far more “nuanced” than that – is already an advantage, certainly not a liability. Especially in this region.
My point is: we shouldn’t play into the Left’s hand in ANY WAY: they couldn’t care less for us – and they’ve proven it time and again.
@ Avigail:
Comment back went puff.
Channel 7 is a religious, right wing INTERNET only Channel not part of the MSM here. It’s reports do not reflect animosity but fact. I suggest to all to visit that source before guessing.
There is no denial from Netanyahu either.
@ Avigail:
Channel 7 is a religious, right wing INTERNET only Channel due to the fact the they cannot get licensed by the polluted “commissions”. I never look at the state channels.
They are the only independent media source in Israel.
Netanyahu is playing this time with the numbers loaned to him. He did his job to smash the foreign attempt, he must toe the line or will not last long in place.
Herzog is paid to take Netanyahu out of government, not to save his derriere.
@ Avigail:
As usual, your instincts are well fiounded, Avigail. Never cave in to rumor, which is usually based on purposeful falsehood.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
How can you take anything the media here is saying seriously, after all that was said during the campaign (and after)?
Obviously they cannot admit defeat and try to undermine Netanyahu at any costs.
Bibi has a coalition and it’s right-wing, clearly.
All the other losers have stated their intention of being in the opposition.
I refuse to froth at the mouth and am pretty sure Bibi has no choice than to accept the coalition offered by the parties who already recommended him (67 seats, which is pretty stable).
And that said regardless of what I think of Netanyahu.
Because all these propaganda efforts begin to get on my nerves really BIG TIME.
http://http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/193046#.VRAmbeFGh2A
@ Avigail:
Reported on Channel 7 quoting one his closest associates.
Warned the other parties that “unity” is possible.
Netanyahu does not realize he did not win on his own sails. He was about to lose. What happened is that he was posted as the boot to kick Mr. Obama, the State Department and hertzog and livni plan out of here.
It would not be difficult for parties who hate him to truly unite to send him out.
Hertzog and Livni will not ever save his skin.
I don’t believe a word of it.
He’s slippery alright but the shape of the new government should tame his penchant for pragmatism. There is no one to his left he needs to pander to and his election promise was to lead a government of the National Camp. So far he is keeping that pledge.
Netanyahu was never trustworthy and will not change that ever. I am starting to wonder, again, if it is worth all the problems to keep him as PM.