T. Belman. Very disappointing. Netanyahu better know what he is doing.. He must be confident that he will reach 61 seats particularly if he crushes her.
According to Channel 12, after dithering over how to handle the struggling Jewish Home leader, the opposition chief now aims to deprive her of even ‘a single right-wing voter’
By TOI STAFF
Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with then justice minister Ayelet Shaked in the Knesset on December 21, 2016. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)[/caption]
In the final stretch of the campaign ahead of the November 1 election, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to go hard after Jewish Home and its leader Ayelet Shaked and ensure she does not pass the electoral threshold, according to a Sunday report.
Netanyahu’s plan is to ensure “that Shaked is not left with a single right-wing voter,” Channel 12 news reported on the thinking in the Likud leader’s inner circle.
The report said the coming days will see Likud launch an all-out assault on the interior minister with the goal of voiding her support on the right.
Shaked has been seen as a conundrum for Netanyahu as he seeks to secure at least 61 seats in the Knesset and ensure his return to power. Though she has said she will back him for prime minister, Shaked and Jewish Home are polling far below the 3.25% electoral threshold. Still, she has so far refused to quit the race. Likud fears the loss of critical right-wing votes if her party is knocked out, and has been debating whether to try to help her past the threshold or to deprive her of all support.
According to Channel 12, the party has now settled on the latter tactic.
The Netanyahu-led right-wing religious bloc (comprised of Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit) is currently polling at around 59-60 seats, and it is likely that the election could be determined by one or two seats.
Earlier this month Likud sources told the network that Netanyahu may come to regret efforts to sideline Shaked, as she may be the opposition leader’s only chance of forming a right-wing coalition of 61 Knesset seats.
A number of unnamed sources within the party said Netanyahu “is making mistakes in managing the [political] campaign and one of them is the conduct surrounding Shaked.”
Shaked herself has said she is Netanyahu’s only chance at winning back the premiership.
Shaked is Netanyahu’s “only chance to reach 61 [seats],” the sources told Channel 12 of the Jewish Home leader, who has served as interior minister since last year in a short-lived, broad government coalition formed by Naftali Bennett who then headed the Yamina party, with Shaked as his number two.
Bennett handed control of Yamina to Shaked after announcing he would take a break from politics following his coalition’s collapse this summer. Bennett serves as alternate prime minister in the caretaker government with Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid as prime minister, as per their coalition agreement.
Shaked briefly teamed up with the Derech Eretz faction to form the Zionist Spirit alliance, but the platform collapsed in mid-September amid dire polling and disagreements over Shaked’s willingness to potentially sit in a hard-right government led by Netanyahu.
As leader of the Jewish Home party she has requested forgiveness for joining the broad coalition last year and pledged to back Netanyahu for premier.
The Yamina party was badly damaged by its time in power. Bennett’s decision to partner with left-wing parties and the Islamist Ra’am faction in the coalition last year gave Israel a functioning government after a series of inconclusive elections, but some of the right-wing party’s voters were unhappy with the move, and three of its Knesset members quit the coalition.
Netanyahu is “letting family pressure decide,” the Likud sources told Channel 12 on Sunday, hinting at the long-rumored bad blood between Sara Netanyahu and Shaked, who began her career as a staffer for Netanyahu in the Prime Minister’s Office.
Sara Netanyahu is said to have vetoed efforts to bring Shaked into the Likud party in the 2019 elections. In bombshell recordings aired in May 2021, Shaked described Netanyahu and his wife Sara as “dictators” and “tyrants” with a “lust for power.”
@Edgar forgive me for interrupting.
@EDGAR G. I did not couple you with them. You misread me again. I said, if they can be forgiven simply by apologizing how much more should we accept Ben G’vir at his word when he says he has changed his mind – and, incidentally, I also would vote for him even if he hadn’t.
Re: the “smartaleck” crack: I was really pissed at you before but I used humor instead of invective unlike the rest here when offended but we won’t go there if you still don’t understand why. Suffice it to say, respect is a two-way street. enough said. Time to move on.
@SEBASTIEN-
I think you’re beginning your “smart aleck” tricks again. To couple me with Jackson, Gibson et all is an egregious insult, which I hope you didn’t mean. My sense of humour, whilst large, doesn’t go quite that far.
I don’t regard myself as an extremist, this is your opinion. I class myself as 100% Zionist ..100% Jew. 100% human being. You…I’m not prepared to say…..!!!
Onn chit-chat I was going to ask you about “Free Cell” but my mood has changed for now.
@Sebastien
Indeed she has. Yet another bit of fallout by the Right to fail to unite. And now Ben Gvir is suggesting that Shaked offered to join with him to hold Bibi to their demands after the election – just more cracks within the disunified Right, ever expanding as we move closer and closer to the election. It is a failure of leadership that the Right has failed to unite and focus their campaign, not against one another, but against those on the Left and all that they are achieving with devastating effects.
Instead of discussing the Left’s betrayal with the Lebanese gas fields and their facilitating illegal Arab occupation of Samaria, we are discussing Shaked’s name calling of Ben Gvir and Bibi’s vendeta against Shaked and Ben Gvir’s assertion that Shaked can not be trusted. Surely we can all see that this is not the best path to victory.
@SEBASTIEN-
Considering extremists to be VERY extreme, Shaked was a little baby lamb compared to Ben Gvir.
As far as her “Bashing” him, I think he began it first. And they are, in a way, competing for similar voters.
@Peloni Shaked has been bashing Ben-Gvir as an extremist and would try to keep him from being a minister if she could. Ironic. Remember when she was universally castigated as the “extremist”and Caroline Glick made this satirical video with her?
https://youtu.be/Fpzrih1S6C0
“Readon” should read, “reason”. Made it with 4 seconds to spare. Oh, so now you want to give me 4 minutes and 46 seconds. Thanks buddy. Machines today.
I just posted a pertinent article.
@EDGAR Not mention so many others, Jesse Jackson, Mel Gibson! Did you read Mel Gibson is going to testify against Harvey Weinstein and the defense won’t be allowed to mention that he might not be exactly objective on account of his being a raving antisemite?!
Just saw your political machine comment. Third largest political party, the only party besides Likud in the right coalition in double digits. No readon for us to join the “extremist” chorus.
@Sebastien
Forgive the interruption, but Obama had a political machine, pun intended, securing his election, while Ben Gvir will have no similar advantage.
@Sebastien
Of course it would be, but then, that is the point. The Right is not in a position to abuse or ostracize any of their members – not Shaked and certainly not Ben Gvir. Also I would suggest that it would be pure folly to suggest that a choice must be made between Ben Gvir and Shaked – the Right needs both of them in the next Knessett. Even if Bibi could guarantee that he could gain 61 seats without Shaked, which he can’t guarantee, he could have 63 with her, and that would give him two additional seats to prevent some weak link on the Right from defecting. Recall the last govt had three defections.
@SEBASTIEN-
Arutz just published a speech by Lapid to the Arab Sector promising that THERE WILL BE NO PRAYER BY JEWS ALLOWED ON THE TEMPLE MOUNT. That they should turn out and vote for HIM.
THIS should bring him a LOSS…Big Time….I hope. If true. But they printed it. It’s there right now. It seems typical Lapid in a panic appealing to his Arab pals.
About Ben Gvir. READ my comments. I totally agreed with his most extreme positions, and would have gone further. I still feel the same way. The Arabs are our most implacable enemies for all time and would slaughter us all given half a chance. I’m socially liberal otherwise.
@EDGAR yeah, well if all it took for Obama to be president after it came out he had been a follower of “Rev.” Jeremiah – “God damn Israel, God damn America” – Wright for 20 years was to say, “oops, sorry,” I think Ben-Gvir deserves at least that much consideration, don’t you?
Thanks for the Edit tip. It worked.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/12/denmark-refugees-frederiksen-danish-left-adopted-a-far-right-immigration-policy/
@EDGAR It’s not just Israel. Not just Italy, the UK, Poland and Hungary. Now Sweden of all places has had enough!
https://www.euronews.com/2022/10/15/from-immigration-to-the-environment-five-things-we-learned-about-swedens-new-right-wing-go
@EDGAR Including yours truly. I don’t know if I posted this here but I recently composed this one parapraph political autobiography and posted it on my Facebook page.
@EDGAR This is the third largest party now! Year after year – no, decade after decade – of peace overtures being met with open genocide will turn anybody into an “extremist” eventually.
@EDGAR and what do you suppose are the political leanings of the publications issuing those reports. The same people who would have us believe that Netanyahu was unpopular and a criminal and that the leftwing government Bennett led with what 4 mandates of his own represented the will of the people.
@Ted You should post the headlines from the Defence/Security section of Arutz Sheva the way you do Jihad watch. Muslim atrocities in Israel are just as much a daily thing that mostly goes unreported elsewhere. I seem to recall reading that the founder of Arutz Sheva was motivated by having survived an attack on a bus which went unreported.
@SEBASTIEN-
If Ben Gvir is not regarded by a large part of the voting public as an “extremist”, then what do you call him. I, of course am just repeating what I have read in dozens of reports. AND, as I said, a year or so ago it was written that he was a terrorist and should be in Jail.
I actually agreed/agree with his “rabid” beliefs, which you know well, as I want in the worst way, thatevery single one of the Arab murderers be kicked out of every inch of Eretz Yisrael, along with their relatives and friends, but I am no influence or power- it’s just my deep feeling )
You KNOW this is fact. I don’t know the guy, But he was as far right as one could go without falling off the ledge, shunned by everyone, and regarded as a lunatic.
But…..when he saw that he was making some progress, but also being criticised heavily, He stated (I read it on Israpundit) in a report that he no longer feels the same way about controversial matters as he had previously…….. In other words he “toned himself down” and became a fully fledged Politician..
The easiest way to get Edit back is to log out and then in again.
Is or her right mind. Edit feature gone again.
How could any Jew in his right or her mind who reads the Defence/Security section of Arutz Sheva every day not support Ben-Gvir? Disloyal Arabs must go, Arab terrorists must die, IDF soldiers must be immune from prosecution, Jews should be able to pray or go or live anywhere without fear. Simple. Obvious. Common sense. Justice.
@Peloni Ganz is polling at 12 behind Ben-Gvir/Smotrich at 14. Courting Ganz would be political suicide on multiple levels.
Likud, 30, Lapid 25, Ben-G’vir/Smotrich are polling at 14 seats (and Ben-Gvir is more popular than Smotrich according to the article) making it the 3rd largest party. Shaked is polling at 1.7 percent of the vote with a threshold of 3.25 percent.Who is more important, Shaked or Ben-Gvir? Do the math.
CHANNEL 12 POLL, OCTOBER 18
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2022-10-18/ty-article/.premium/polls-show-israeli-election-in-dead-heat-as-far-right-eats-into-netanyahu-vote/00000183-ec99-d61e-a5df-fcd9d8240000
@EDGAR I don’t consider Ben-Gvir an extremist. His program is just common sense. I would vote for him if I could vote in Israel.
I think Netanyahu’s calculated negativity to Shaked is likely to boost her numbers by some of those anti-Bibi haters to take her over the threshold.
@SEBASTIEN-
If more of Shaked’s voters are Right Wing than otherwise, and she is near the Threshold, his support should impel enough other right Wingers, who’d normally vote LIKUD, to vote for Jewish Home , thereby gaining 4 Right Wing seats. Her RW supporters will vote for HER not Netanyahu.
Unless she drops out, which she won’t do.
I KNOW from reading the Arutz 7 comments that there is a HUGE backlash against the P.M. because of his attacks on her. As Ted pointed out, he’s “gambling” on getting a majority (61) from attacking her. I say he isn’t even sure to get 60 seats even so.
Today the polls showed him at 57 seats. He’s being a damned fool , pushed by his vengeful wife. I never thought I’d criticise his political wisdom, but I DO. Smotrich and Ben Gvir are just as stupid about it. Ben Gvir, like all extremists is doubling down on his negativity to Shaked.
Last year he was a “terrorist” deserving prison.. Today he’s a future Government Minister../?/
Politics and “strange bedfellows” never more obvious than in Israeli politics.
@Ted
True, but then the myth that they were ever Centerists was always a disengenuous claim. Recall the role that Gantz and Lapid each played in helping Obama during the JPOA debate in the US Congress. For Gantz, this was his very first action taken upon entering the political realm.
Additionally, I would suggest that this is precisely where Bibi needs to focus his election contest, not with members of the Right, but with the true villains in this election, who are all aligned on the Left.
If he thinks he can get to 61 without her – he said 62 – That would be an unnecessary gamble.
People aren’t necessarily going to vote for her just because he tells them to, not enough to securely get her over the hump, anyway. Some people will vote for her no matter what. Others might be swayed by him but not hecessarily enough and that would eat into Likud’s numbers.
@Edgar G.
That would be fine as Jewish Home is part of his coalition. Shaked’s polling numbers are so close to the minimum that if she loses, her votes will be lost. And Bibi’s analysts have determined that many more of her voters are rightwing than leftwing.
So, what does Bibi have to gain from supporting her?…
It is important to note that he called them leftists, not centrist..
That challenges the myth that they are a center/left party. THEY ARE A LEFTIST PARTY.
‘We won’t form gov’t with Gantz or Lapid, they’re leftists’
With just two weeks before the election, it is utterly ridiculous that it was necessary to make this statement at this point in time, but it was in fact made necessary by statements from within Bibi’s own campaign. Despite his assertion in this statement, some will remain skeptical of his motives in not mending fences with Shaked, thus complicating the already unforced error of not mending fences with Shaked.
TED_
Are you censoring me.?? If so , why?? If not (and I believe not) my TWO posts answering yours about the PM “gambling”‘ on getting a one seat majority, by hammering at Shaked, were posted, printed and have disappeared.
Disturbing….!! Perhaps this will vanish also?? But this time I’ll wait the Edit time out….! I didn’t before.
TED_
My post responding to yours that Netanyahu hopes to get one seat by attacking Shaked, giving him a majority (61), had disappeared.
The gist was that there is no guarantee that he will get even 60, as the LIKUD polls have hovered between 58-61.
That if he’s “gambling ” on this he should join Gamblers Anonymous.
add; Is this the NEW Netanyahu, wanting a “broad” govt, including Gantz who wants to give away land to the Arabs…
More cracks on the Right following on stage snub of Ben Gvir by Bibi?
Ben-Gvir: Netanyahu’s handlers prefer a government with Gantz
This was a smart move by Ben Gvir to minimize the fallout of this outrage, but this should never have happened.
TED-
If Netanyahu is gambling, as you say, that his attacks on Shaked will gain him ONE seat, he should join Gamblers Anonymous.
What guarantee does he have that he will get SIXTY seats (plus ONE) , He’s been polling from 58-60. One time I saw 61, But they are very fallible.
And if Otzma+ gets more, their demands will stagger even him. They’ve been the “poor relations” for a long time with Ben Gvir until recently regarded as a terrorist who should be in prison.
I see that in Arutz 7, the comments section of the Netanyahu attack report, is full of condemnations of Netanyahu, Because of his attack on Shaked. Earlier today there were already over 40, and about 35, many of them Likudniks, were vowing to vote for Jewish Home.
Shaked currently is poling 3 seats. Netanyahu is gambling that by attacking her, he will gain at least one seat, enough for a majority. I think its a risky gamble. The safer path to a majority is to support her.
@Peloni Remember the first time around or was it the second when the polls said Yamina would get a lot of mandates and when that didn’t happen, Bennet demanded and got a fraud investigation which found no fraud? When it’s razor thin close, the polls are useless. In the US, when there was still some semblance of sanity in the media, anything within 4 points was dismissed as “within the margin of error.”
@Sebastien
Quite true. The tale will be told by the turnout of the support of the respective parties. The calculus towards victory is a decidedly complicated mess, but at the end of the day, victory will be had by those who want it the most, and for my own perspective, such as it is, I believe the Right have every advantage of victory over the Left…but the public must do the heavy lifting and show up at the polls.
@rmderfler
I can appreciate your speculation here, and no doubt there will be some who agree with your perspective, but I think the dogged determination which Bibi demonstrated by uniting the Right, even bringing in Noam to run with the Religious Zionists, speaks loudly against your speculation.
As Ted describes it well, I am quite disappointed in Bibi’s resistance to bridge the void that exists between Jewish Home and the rest of the Right, but I don’t believe Bibi is doing so to block the formation of a Right wing govt. Rather, I believe he is doing so in spite of his desire to form a Right wing govt, and he may still succeed in doing so, even if he forces Shaked out. As I noted yesterday, there are many parties whose poll numbers place them just over the minimum threshold, and any one of them failing to succeed in doing so will result in a more likely outcome of Bibi being able to succeed in forming a govt, with or without Shaked. Furthermore, should Bibi fail to be able to form a right wing govt, he will likely be facing the end of his career as a consequence. Bibi is no fool, he knows all of this, and still he publicly made this foolish move, complicating an already difficult path to victory by the Right. Despite these facts, I find it difficult to believe his motivation could be easily argued as being based on the aspiration of failing to succeed to form a Right wing govt, while publicly displaying his complicity in doing so. Restating this, he could have easily undermined his ability to succeed with a more discreet series of mis-steps which would have been hidden from public viewing rather than continuing this public war with Shaked, for which Bibi alone will be blamed by everyone should the Right fail to block the Left.
Recall also that, whereas it took a Bibi Netanyahu to bridge the gaps between Smotrich and Ben Gvir, and between them both and Noam, there was no such power player to take Bibi’s role in an intervention bridging the gap between Bibi himself and his long term animus for Ayelet Shaked. There is a long history of oil and water relations between Bibi and Shaked, and that well predated Shaked’s role in supporting Bennett to form a govt empowering both the Left and the Brotherhood. As petty and stupid as this move should be considered, particularly by a man who should be considered by all to be a political genius, the public nature of the move provides a context which challenges the view that he has no desire in victory.
Regardless of any of this, though, it was indeed a gross error to have pursued this civil war among the Right, as the consequences could not be more stark, but the rationale that this was done to leave the Left in power rings rather hollow to me, for what it is worth.
The lyrics are so apropos
Marlin Brando. Guys and Dolls movie.
https://youtu.be/BmEwtWBte84
Elections in Israel are like a box of chocolates; you never know what you’re going to get.
That’s assuming that
a) She would pass the threshold even with his support.
b) that he wouldn’t actually lose right wing votes if he openly supports her. There are right wing voters who vote their principles and damn the consequences. There are voters who will never trust her again.
It’s a crap shoot. 50/50. He will have to just roll the dice and take his chances. Insults are uncalled for.
I think Netanyahu does not want a right wing government