Here’s the deal. Netanyahu and Abbas to start negotiations without preconditions. Obama continues to back negotiations based on ’67 lines with swaps. No one issue will end talks. The appearance of engagement is what all parties want for their own reasons. No doubt there will be very little, if any, construction during this period. It is not yet a done deal. T. Belman
Last preparations before restart of Israel-Palestinian talks
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 15, 2011,
The final touches on US President Barack Obama’s push to revive Israel-Palestinian negotiations, stalled for nearly two years, are being put in place by his Middle East advisers David Hale and Dennis Ross and the legal adviser to the National Security Council Jonathan Schwartz who arrived in Israel Tuesday, June 14. After talks in Jerusalem, the group will move to Amman to meet Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas and continue working on arrangements for a non-ceremonial, modest triple summit in Washington to kick off the negotiations.
According to debkafile’s Washington sources, both Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas have quietly committed to sit down and talk without prior conditions: The Prime Minister has dropped his demand for Abbas to first recognize Israel as the Jewish national state, while the Palestinian leader has abandoned the prior conditions for Israel to accept the 1967 lines as the starting point of the talks and halt settlement construction.
Obama for his part stands by his insistence on the 1967 borders as the basis for negotiations. He has also obtained Abbas’ pledge to give face-to-face diplomacy one more chance before addressing a unilateral application to the UN for recognition of Palestinian statehood.
With these obstacles out of the way, Israeli-Palestinian talks are expected to restart within the next six weeks and if they go smoothly to keep going until August.
The plan is for the three leaders to retire to behind closed doors after their initial joint photo op and launch their first round of talks. The exact location is one of the loose ends to be tied up this week. Complete secrecy will be observed. US officials and other authorized spokesmen will issue bulletins when deemed appropriate.
It has also been agreed that if the talks run into an impasse on any issue, the parties will move on to an easier item. This mechanism has been introduced to avoid the breakdown of the last round of talks as soon as they began and keep them afloat well into the US presidential election year of 2012.
Obama is keen to get the Israeli and Palestinian leaders round the peace table in time for his reelection campaign – a diplomatic feat that has eluded him for two years. His administration is also keen to deter the Palestinian leader from going ahead with his quest for UN recognition of a state within the 1967 lines.
debkafile’s diplomatic sources report that Washington and Jerusalem have succeeded in quiet diplomatic efforts in recent weeks to bite deep into the automatic UN majority the Palestinians are building on.
The tally includes key governments in the Far East, Europe and Africa – some of them members of the Palestinian Donors’ Committee – which have pledged to oppose the Palestinian initiative or abstain.
Among them are Germany, Italy, France, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. British Prime Minister David Cameron, who has not yet come around, is expected to join the opposing votes when the time comes. Pledges have also come in from Canada, Japan, Austria and New Zealand.
More than half of African UN member-states have informed Washington or Paris they will cast their vote against the Palestinian draft.
According to debkafile’s Moscow sources, the Russians while declaring themselves in favor have advised Abbas to beware of following a blind alley. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently counseled Fatah representatives visiting the Russian capital to think carefully about the morning after the passage of the Palestinian statehood resolution.
Based on what we know, nothing will happen, said Lavrov. The resolution will never be implemented.
Abbas needs the boost to his prestige and leverage that opening talks with Israel will offer him to drive off a serious challenge to his leadership launched within his own Fatah movement by a member of the PLO council Mohammed Dahlan.
The challenger hopes to bring Abbas down by a smear campaign. He claims he has proof that the Palestinian leader is guilty of the biggest national robbery in modern Arab history, namely the appropriation and transfer to his private accounts of the $1.4 billion left by Yasser Arafat after his death in 2004.
To promote his campaign to unseat Abbas, which has found some backing in the Fatah leadership in Ramallah, Dahlan has hired public relations consultants. This week, Abbas failed to rally enough support for his demand to expel Dahlan from Fatah leadership bodies.
Fatah-Gaza is solidly behind him, adding to Abbas’ difficulties in his dealings with the rival Hamas since they signed a unity pact in April.
The beleaguered Palestinian leader hopes therefore that the revival of US-sponsored negotiations with Israel will occupy the minds of his party associates and distract their attention from the charges hurled by his opponent.
The Israeli prime minister also has good reason to welcome the restart of talks under the US aegis.
For months, his many political, economic and media critics have portrayed him as diplomatically inert and therefore responsible for the cutoff of peace talks with the Palestinians which, they say, has led to Israel being internationally isolated in the face of a major Palestinian UN initiative.
Netanyahu’s denial of these charges has had little resonance. However the resumption of talks – especially if Abbas is sidetracked from his UN initiative – will enable him to silence his critics by a successful diplomatic breakthrough.
For the record, I and I believe many in the Diaspora, consider Bibi has done a remarkably good job with very little material to assist him. He has managed to keep the US and its vacillating President onside whilst effectively avoiding making any vital concession. And his remarkable speech to Congress was a tour de force.
Israel has dispensed with elections? Who knew?
That is in fact excellent cover for acting. We shall see if he uses it.
What size?
This was picked up by the Jewish Americans for Sarah Palin newsletter.
Jewish Americans for Sarah Palin
And just so word of my total idiocy will get around I’m expecting her to announce 4 July 2011.
Yamit, you make some good points ie leaders should be judged by their actions and not their words. However I don’t understand your get rid of Bibi at all costs rhetoric. There is a saying “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know”. Unless there is a likud coup to replace him with Feiglin, won’t replacing him only make things worse?
What part did you find disgusting Ilana?
I hope you(Yamit) don’t live in Israel.
Sorry to disappoint you. I live in the settlement of Dimona and previously lived in and was ethnically cleansed by Begin and Sharon From the Town of ‘Yamit’…
What kinds of people do you believe Hashem prefers if not me? I observe the primary commandment by living here. I have observed to the best of my ability all laws and personal obligations required of a Jew, especially Milchemet Mitzva.
He might but then why would he? I observe most or as many commandments as I am able, I live voluntarily in the land he commanded me to live in and I have always defended the land from all enemies foreign and domestic. Who do you believe is more preferable in Hasem’s eyes than someone like me?
YES!
You have nothing to fear 🙂
He is a stinking low life politician who wanted to be PM. He was not drafted by popular consent, he fought one and all to get the Job, mostly through dirty poliyical manipulation and lies . Of all BB’s attributes, he the the biggest liar in Israel and one of the worst liars of all of our politicians. He can’t even lie well. He was not anointed with oil by a prophet of Israel either.
He is Hashem’s appointed man and Bibi will be PM as long as Hashem wants him in this position.
You speaks as though you have a direct link to Hashem and know what he is thinking and what is his will? Are you a Calvinist?
BB was made chairman of the Likud without even the need to enter a primary. As leader of the Likud list he became PM when the Likud only garnered 23% of the popular vote but less than Kadima which got around 24% of the popular vote. All of the parties to the right of Likud supported the Likud and their chairman the right to form a coalition to form a government. BB did form a coalition by screwing some of the parties who recommended the Likud form a government and choose to bring in Labor instead.
BB as head of a minority party received only 23% of the popular vote. Israelis don’t like or trust him and neither do I.
BB will be PM as long as those opposing him can’t effectively depose him. He does not rule by divine right. Based on your opinions you would say the same against every prophet in the Tanach.
As for language,I chose to use language that best expresses my feelings and beliefs and is best suited to convey those feelings to anyone who reads my comments. I could advise you to skip my comments if you find my language too offensive for for sensitivities.
What’s wrong is you thought wrong.
The same Netanyahu at Wye. The same Netanyahu at Hevron. The same Netanyahu at Gush Katif. The same Netanyahu at the freezes in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria.
Bibi needs to stop playing footsie with liars/anti-semites. Arabs will NEVER recognise or accept Israel, and the current occupant of the White House showed his cards being in church with his mentor jeremiah wright, and his buddy louis farrakhan. There is nothing in Obamas history which leds me to believe that he has any good intentions towards Israel.
His friend Rashid Khalidi is preparing to be part of the ‘Audacity of Hope’ flotilla!
I always thought of Bibi being more adamant in the interest of Israel. What’s wrong with this picture?
Can he not hold out until next year-when we have another election, and a more patriotic president is elected??
Netanyahu fesses up: “As Prime Minister of Israel, I don’t know my head from my ass”
Hasn’t it been swell going around in circles for 25 years?! There’s a toilet flush analogy hiding here.
Thanks for doing the research. I relied on my faulty memory. I’ll settle for 51%. Bibi’s poll numbers were low because most Israelis wanted bold action. The Left wanted bold action to move the PP forward and the right wanted bold action to rfeject the peace process. His Washington trip obviously satisfied the Right who now support him.
Also his stewardship has the American people supporting Israel like never before. Furthermore he created a strong coalition. Liberman said it will hold full term. In Israel that’s an accomplishment. Likud polls at about 34 seats today.
The peace process will not result in an agreement.
Having said all that I was not happy when he brought Labour into the government and kept the NU out. Or when he brought Meridor in. Or when he agreed to a 9 month freeze or when he continues the de facto freeze.
I wabt him to use the political capital he has built up to start building like he should but I worry he agreed to continue the freeze during negotiations.
What I objected to was your strong language.
Re Yamit’s disgusting remarks:-
I hope you(Yamit) don’t live in Israel.
Israel certainly does not need people like you spoiling Hashem’s Land. Be careful or HE might throw you out !
I suppose you think you could make a better PM? I certainly hope you never have the opportunity.
Shame on you for deriding the PM of Israel. He is Hashem’s appointed man and Bibi will be PM as long as Hashem wants him in this position.
People with foul mouths should not be allowed to express their opinion on this fine website
Regarding the opening piece (not the Yam Report), the “rules of engagement” read like the script for a game show. Will Obama give out prizes for witty comments? How about some sessions where Bibi and Abu answer trivia questions?
Ted Belman says:
Whether he is resigned or not he has accepted a Pali state in many public statements. As long as he is PM a Pali state will be. Even when he has the support of a majority of the Israeli people he still caves. BB could have made Obamas pressure (if it’s real) a campaign issue and could make support for Israel a major campaign issue uniting all Republicans and maybe some democrats. That he hasn’t leads me to believe he really wants a deal with the Palis more than any other issue before us, even Iran.
Israelis want a strong leader and BB will soon lose any spikes in popularity gained from Washington trip once he starts his giveaways.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
A clearly frustrated Yossi Verter reports: Haaretz poll: Netanyahus popularity soaring following Washington trip
Problem with Israelis is that most get their inputs from the local leftist medias. That’s at least one major reason for seeming contradictory responses.
What did you feel when you watched Netanyahu speak at Congress?
Pride 46% Waste 5% Neither 20% Didn’t watch 22%
Are you satisfied with Netanyahu’s performance?
Yes 51% No 36%
Can Netanyahu’s visit to the USA be termed a success?
Success 47% Failure 10% Neither 27%
I find BB offensive even traitorous. He was given a specific mandate based on his campaign promises and the Likud platform. He should return the mandate if he can’t live up to his commitments by which he was elected but new elections would not necessarily be required if he is deposed from within his own party.
His main promise and commitment was to prevent Iran from getting Nukes. Nobody believes he will act including me. It’s too late in any event.
BB is all about keping his seat no matter the cost to anyone else of even the state. He is a political coward and a disgrace to the State. Dimona is considered a right wing town and everyone I’ve spoken to hates him as much as me.
You have never called one right with regards to BB and I believe you have not begun to call it right with your comment above. He is not a King or monarch. What Americans say about their presidents makes my comment seem quite tame.
What poll have you seen where 60% favor BB?
Friday, May 27, 2011
New Wave Poll: 60%:28% Oppose Obama proposal for negotiations
New Wave Poll: 60%:28% Oppose Obama proposal for negotiations
Dr. Aaron Lerner – IMRA 27 May 2011
Telephone poll carried out by New Wave for Yisrael Hayom the week of 27 May
2011 of a representative sample of 500 adult Hebrew speaking Israeli Jews
for all questions other than the question on voting for the Knesset and a
representative sample of 620 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) for
the question on voting for the Knesset and published on 27 May, 2011:
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
32 [27] Likud
28 [28] Kadima
16 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
09 [13] Labor
09 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
04 [04] Nat’l Union
03 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Jewish Home /NRP
11 [11] Arab parties
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the performance of Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu?
Satisfied 45% Not satisfied 41% Don’t know 14%
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the performance of U.S. President
Obama?
Satisfied 34% Not satisfied 49% Don’t know 17%
President Obama called for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians
on the basis of the 1967 borders with agreed land swaps. Do you support or
oppose this?
Support 28% Oppose 60% Don’t know 12%
Is Obama closer to Israel or the Palestinians?
Israel 38% Palestinians 37% Don’t know 25%
Is Obama committed to Israel’s security?
Committed 65% Not committed 27% Don’t know 8%
Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israel would agree to the
establishment of a Palestinian state while retaining Jewish settlement blocs
in Judea and Samaria, a long term military presence in the Jordan Valley and
united Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Do you support or oppose the
principles the prime minister presented?
Support 61% Oppose 25% Don’t know 14%
Do the Palestinians want to reach a peace arrangement with Israel?
Yes 19% No 72% Don’t know 9%
In the wake of the agreement between Fatah and Hamas, should Israel
negotiate now with the Palestinians?
Yes 41% No 47% Don’t know 12%
Revolutions are taking place in the Arab world and there are demonstrations
taking place against the ruling regimes. Are the changes taking place in
the Arab world good or bad for Israel?
Good 18% Bad 41% No effect 16% Don’ know 25%
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
Yisrael Hayom is a pro BB newspaper and the results if anything give BB more than he deserves but even so 47% is not 60%.
This poll like all others show that Israelis are confused if not schizophrenic.
I don’t think this is correct. I think that to be a member of the UN you must be approved by the security council. You only become a state if enough Countries recognize you as a state. But there are international norms or pre-conditions that you must meet according to international law. That is not to say that some countries may not ignore international law. One of the requirements is that you must control the land for it to be part of your state.
So I don’t see a problem here. Bibi certainly is not “resigned to a Palestinian state”.
I find this very offensive.
Netanyahu isn’t there to do you bidding. He is the PM of all the people and he has the support of 60% of the people. So you are odd man out. Who do you want to replace him with? Is their anyone who has the chance to replace him as leader of Likud?
Your anger should be directed at the majority of Israelis or Likud who support him.
While I would like Bibi to be more assertive, its his call to make.
PM resigned to the Palestinian state
Netanyahu told the president of European parliament that thirty states should oppose Palestinian UNGA bid for statehood.
Huh? That’s less than required to block the approval. Bibi seems to accept that the UNGA will override the UNSC rejection of Palestinian statehood, and seeks a symbolic protest by civilized nations
This cowardly POS, is more dangerous to us than any Arab nation.
Iran has enough enriched uranium for four nuclear bombs
DEBKAfile Special Report
03 June: By April 2011, Iran had accumulated a quantity of U-235 that can be enriched in short order to sufficient 90 percent (weapons grade) uranium to fuel four nuclear bombs – and attained “virtual” nuclear weapon state. This was revealed by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, American’s scientific watchdog on world nuclear weapons production in its June 2 report.
By breaking the IAEA seal at the Natanz enrichment plant, Iran gained another 6-7 months for concealing the work there. That is why the military option is back on the table in Jerusalem.
Estimates are the can have a weaponized bomb within 2-3 months and Our piece of crap PM is f..ing around with Obama and Abbas? His bravery is in destroying settlers and their kids homes and beating the hell out of real Jews, mostly kids.
Ted posted the picture of BB that resembles Mussolini, how apt. In 1996 election campaign Chabad ran adverts saying “BB is good for the Jews”. Pundits say that gave BB the narrow win over Peres. We learned then after he was elected that BB was not good for the Jews or Israel and we brought him down. He hasn’t changed and is not good for either the Jews or Israel. He is loathsome and vile.
While most of the readers and commenters here praised BB’s speech and his lecture to the Black Plague. I was critical and warned for the hundredth time, BB is to be judged by what he does or doesn’t do and not by his rhetoric.
There are many ways to depose a PM. I don’t care which one!!