Into the Fray: A determined domestic thrust is under way to compress Israel back into its precarious pre-1967 frontiers, imperiling the viability of Jewish sovereignty.
Maale Adumim Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
Four percent of the country’s residents [i.e. the settlers] cannot decide that they are the only ones who know what’s right… It’s hard not to respect those who are willing to risk their lives and future for the sake of a goal they believe in, yet it becomes a whole different story when they risk the lives and future of others.
- – Yair Lapid, “Do the settlers care about us?” October 2, 2010
… there is room for well-considered, controlled unilateral actions. Such actions, which are not dependent on the standing of negotiations, can mitigate the conflict by creating an evolving reality of two states. They should take place along with consistent efforts to negotiate a permanent arrangement, or at least diplomatic agreements that would ultimately result in a permanent arrangement.
- – Gilead Sher, “Unilateral withdrawal, by consent,” June 27, 2012
You would think that following Israel’s ruinous unilateral withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza, unilateralism would be dead in the water… the political Left is impatient. The same people who once sold us Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas as peace partners are now telling us that peace is impossible yet the existing situation is unacceptable, and therefore the unilateral route is the only remaining course of action for Israel… There is a groundswell of “elite” (read: Leftist) opinion building in favor of unilateral withdrawal in the West Bank. I sense that Prime Minister Netanyahu is being pulled in this direction…
- – David Weinberg, “The return of unilateralism,” May 30, 2013
I have a strong premonition of dire things to come. For there are increasingly frequent signs of the ominous nature of the emerging realities that soon will be upon us – signs clearly visible to all but those who refuse to acknowledge them, and realities which if left unchecked will – with almost deterministic certainty – herald the end of the era of Jewish sovereignty in our time.
Retreat as a stand-alone imperative
The three preceding citations aptly illustrate the reasons for my concern and the sense of impending doom that accompanies it.
For they clearly mark out the major lines, along which the thrust of a new domestic effort is being mounted to compress Israel back into its precariously vulnerable pre-1967 frontiers, and to reinstate the validity of the policy of unreciprocated withdrawal, despite the debacle of the disengagement.
It is important to note the metamorphosis that has taken place in the rationale of the two-state doctrine. For in contrast to the not too- distant past, withdrawal from the territories across the 1967 Green Line is now no longer presented – as least not, primarily – as a measure designed to attain a peace accord with the Palestinians. Rather, it is portrayed as a desired value in, and of, itself. Today, territorial retreat is being promoted as a standalone moral imperative which must be aspired to, no matter what the peace negotiations with the Palestinians achieve. Or don’t.
1984 is now
Unilateralists employ two ruses to disguise the true nature of their endeavor – one involving semantic cosmetics, the other substantive camouflage.
They attempt to mask their push for unrequited concessions with misleading, almost Orwellian rhetoric, virtually indistinguishable from the Newspeak slogans in the dystopian realities of 1984, such as “War is peace,” “Freedom is slavery” and “Ignorance is strength.”
This is no exaggeration. For what more fitting epithet could there be to characterize the unilateralists’ bizarre practice of designating their call for complete capitulation as “constructive” (see my “The coming canard: ‘Constructive unilateralism,’” April 19). This could be plausibly construed as prescribing a macabre maxim that could have come directly from the manuals of the Orwellian Ministry of Truth: “Surrender is Victory.”
Together, with this semantic sleight of hand, they continue to insist that their preferred avenue is a negotiated settlement with the Palestinians. But this too is little more than superficial posturing that lacks any credibility.
After all, why would the Palestinians feel the need to negotiate when they are being “threatened” with being given virtually everything that they could get via those negotiations anyway – courtesy of “constructive unilateralism.”
Unless of course one is contemplating offering even more munificent concessions in such negotiations, such as the right of return, east Jerusalem and the Golan, as per the demands of the Arab Peace Initiative.
(From hereon, I will denote the advocates of this bizarre doctrine by the acronym CUPs – Constructive unilateralism proponents.)
How events will unfold
It is against this ideo-political backdrop that the grim scenario I envisage will unfold.
As the growing specter of international economic, and other, sanctions looms ever-larger and more menacing, public concern will be harnessed to fan the flames of resentment toward the designated cause of these potential punitive measures against the country – the continued Jewish presence across the 1967 Green Line.
Although radical post-/anti-Zionist elements will continue their support for the BDS (Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions) movement, establishment CUPs will not publicly call for such steps against Israel. Privately, however, they may well let it be known that they feel that tangible threats thereof might have a valuable role to play.
They will write articles and give interviews in the mainstream media, warning that such penalties are imminent, thereby signaling to foreign governments that such action is, in their eyes, understandable, even, regrettably, appropriate.
As such threats become more credibly conveyed and are seen to be more tangibly imminent, they will be brandished domestically by CUPs, and increasingly portrayed as an unwarranted and avoidable punishment brought down on the general public by a handful of recalcitrant, radical ideologues.
Then, a well-orchestrated campaign to discredit the residents of the Jewish communities of Judea and Samaria will begin. They will be portrayed as the source of economic burden and physical danger to the rest of the population living within the pre-1967 frontiers – as reflected in the foregoing Lapid excerpt – and as the sole impediment to a peace accord with the Palestinians.
Although some non-adversarial appeals will be made for “our brothers across the Green Line” to return home, and expressions of understanding, empathy, even identification as to their suffering may be articulated, this will do little to dilute the venom that will be directed at them. The deep-seated, primal distaste for the settlers will soon engender defamatory and demagogic diatribes against them that will range from the distortive, through the deceptive, to the downright deceitful.
Staged conferences, carefully crafted polls
In parallel, a drive will be launched – in fact, in large part has already been launched – to accustom the public to the notion of “constructive unilateralism” and to persuade it of its acceptability, indeed, inevitability.
Conferences will be staged with compliant, high-profile participants to impart “intellectual depth” to this shallow, capricious concept; opinion polls will be conducted, with questions carefully crafted to elicit responses that can be portrayed as reflecting widespread public endorsement; opinion pieces will be published/posted and prime time interviews granted in mainstream media channels – at home and abroad – with sympathetic editorial policies, to build up pressure on politicians and policy-makers.
Soon a “95% Us vs 4% Them” theme will increasingly dominate the public discourse, and a “Pre-1967 Israelis vs Trans-Green Line Settlers” schism will purposely be widened and systematically popularized.
With growing frequency and aggressiveness, elected leaders will find themselves publicly confronted with trenchant, but disingenuous, questions of the kind: “Why should 95% of the population pay the price for, and bear the burden of, the ideological intransigence of a 5% minority.”
And as in the past, the elected leaders will not withstand the pressure.
No forced evacuation
Recently, pro-settler/anti-withdrawal advocates have pooh-poohed the idea of imminent Israeli withdrawal from Judea-Samaria.
They claim that given the precedent of the disengagement, and of other forced evacuation episodes, no government could countenance the involuntary evacuation of tens – much less hundreds – of thousands of Jews from their homes, and hence withdrawal is not a feasible prospect.
They are right – and they are wrong! It is unlikely that any Israeli government could or would undertake a massive forced evacuation of Jews. But this does not discount the possibility of unilateral withdrawal.
For what was once unthinkable is no longer so.
Under relentless pressure generated by CUPs, their media cohorts, and supportive foreign governments and ministers, the harassed politicians will do the following:
• Announce that Israel has no claims to sovereignty beyond the security barrier – or thereabout.
• Instruct the IDF to prepare for a unilateral withdrawal to that prescribed line within, say, six to nine months.
• Inform the residents of the Jewish communities across the Green Line that the IDF will withdraw in six to nine months, in which time they will have to decide: Either accept a modest relocation compensation package or remain where they are, to live under the rule of whatever regime will assume power in the region.
Unthinkable today, government policy tomorrow
Unthinkable? I beg to differ.
Sever Plocker, a very well-connected journalist, recently (May 20) wrote: “Sources close to the prime minister… speak of his growing willingness to take a dramatic unilateral step for the Palestinians in case the proposal for temporary borders and an interim agreement does not reach the implementation stage.”
Strongly corroborating the concern expressed by David Weinberg in the introductory except, Plocker continues: “According to the sources, Bibi is closer than ever to reaching a decision on a unilateral withdrawal near the separation fence, without getting anything in return from the Palestinian Authority.
He is prepared for a ‘historic act that would surpass the disengagement from Gaza.’” The history of recent decades is replete with incidents in which the once-taboo has become the accepted policy of the day.
Who, in the 1980s, would have believed that the rugged, hawkish Palmahnik Yitzhak Rabin would embrace and sanitize the arch–terrorist Arafat; who, in the 1990s, would have believed that former right-wing Likudniks like Ehud Olmert would offer to divide Jerusalem; who, in 2000, would have believed that the super-hawk Ariel Sharon would coercively evacuate Gaza, or that Netanyahu would embrace the idea of a Palestinian state.
Time and time again, Israeli leaders have buckled under pressure – perceived or genuine.
Time and time again, they have reneged on electoral pledges and embraced the dovish concessions they previously scorned.
There is little reason to believe – or even to hope – that they will not do so again – especially if confronted with the seeming choice of giving the welfare of a 95% majority precedence over the “ideological excesses” of a 4% minority.
Grotesque inversion of Zionist ethos
Quite the contrary.
This of course would be a calamitous decision and in all probability, would precipitate a process that, within several decades, culminate in end of the era of Jewish sovereignty.
It would comprise a grotesque inversion of the Zionist ethos, which in essence involves bringing Jews living under alien sovereignty to live under Jewish sovereignty – not abandoning Jews to live under, not only alien, but in all likelihood inimical sovereignty.
It would create an insufferable security situation converting Netanya to Sderot-by-the sea…
Proponents of the move would soon find – as with the Oslo debacle – that the euphoria would be rapidly replaced by horror and despair.
But even the more nationalistic elements in the population would begin to drift away with a growing sense of alienation from the country and its fate. Dispirited, despondent and disgusted, people who were prepared to risk and sacrifice much to be a participant in a valiant stirring struggle, but not “patsies” in a patently foolhardy failure of spirit, would seek fulfillment elsewhere…
Forewarned is forearmed
The preceding scenario is a tangible possibility.
But forewarned is forearmed.
Help prevent it materializing. Raise you voice in protest. Withdraw support from any elected incumbent who does not actively and effectively oppose its implementation. Help fund countervailing conferences and conduct contradictory surveys.
It is not that much is at stake.
Everything is at stake! Please help me to prove my prediction wrong.
Martin Sherman (www.martinsherman.net) is the founder and executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies.
dovbear Said:
I am always reminded How Judge Yiftach answered the king of the children of Ammon :
” Is it not that which Chemosh your god gives you to possess, that you may possess; and all that which the Lord our God has driven out from before us, that we shall possess.” Shoftim (Judges) 11.
Smart Judge yiftach!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbb35kOXIyA
@ yamit82:
Here will be the test. Will they fire Danny Danon for this: Danny Danon If he gets away with saying it without being politically crushed, then Netanyahu is stuck for now, until NATO, Russia, and the UN get their unified act together against us. I am well aware that Sammy Power is in the UN now to write the resolution for the Mammoth Protection Force when the time comes.
@ yamit82:
First NATO and Russia will duke it out in Syria. Then they will unite against us, and Sammy (S-M) Power will write the UNSC resolution.
@ yamit82:
You are not convinced that when the entire world gathers against Jerusalem to divide it and the rest of the land that there will not be cowards who will run away. You are correct in assuming that there will be cowards who will run away or cave. It is our final test. We will likely be at that point within the next several months once the war in Syria is complete. So in that vein, you are correct to not be convinced, but when it happens, the World will also demand the other half of Jerusalem too. It will not be enough to give them everything else.
@ dovbear:
Sounds good!!
Why am I not convinced? 😉
Shas MK’s will do as their told. Lapid will do what he perceives is in his best political interest as will most Likud MK’s.
I find the reaction to WOW reaction quite hypocritical because the wall is not an orthodox synagogue and has no intrinsic holiness. All this fuss while ignoring and abandoning the place that is relevant and holy a few meters away. As I commented above we could make our discussion mute if Jews would press and act to regain absolute sovereignty over the Temple Mount. I think the smells and of smoke rising from the resumption of sacrifices would put paid to any 2 state solutions or Piece Processes for good.
The future of Eretz Yisrael is in the hands of religious Jews and it’s time to declare if they are really G-d fearing or just atheistic practitioners of Jewish ritual. The Halacha seems to me to be pretty clear on this matter. Succumbing to the provocations of WOW but accepting and even acquiescence of Arab provocations is nothing less than Chillul Hashem.
@ yamit82:
And forgot to mention, if one measures the distance between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River through Shekhem, the most sparsely populated part of Samaria, the distance is 40 freaking miles. One can’t drive from one side of Dallas, Texas to the other side of Fort Worth in less than 50 miles. Lapid is pretty smart. You think that he can’t take a mileage bar and measure it on a map and figure this out?? We do have some blooming idiots here in government in Meretz, Labor, and Tenua. Most people in Lapid’s party are not amongst the idiots even if a few are. Lapid has made it clear that he is instructing his MKs to only vote for a carefully crafted interim negotiated settlement dealing with Areas A and B. There is no such thing as “Deep” in the “West Bank” if the width of one’s country is 40 freaking miles. good luck on that one.
@ yamit82:
Sharon had a lot of doves in his govt. like Dan Meridor and Eitan and a boatload of other weaklings. Netanyahu has none of these folks except for Tzachi HaNegbi. And Uzi Landau bounced back and is back in Yisrael Beiteinu. So is Ya’ir Shamir. If 2/3rds of your party says no, it ain’t happening. They will bury him, and Danny Danon knows it. Danon can say whatever he darn well pleases, and Bibi can’t do a darn thing to shut him up.
@ yamit82:
It does not matter that the math of all these disparate parties add up to if Bibi does not stay in charge. He will not remain Prime Minister with just 15 seats, and he won’t make any move without staying 100% in control. Lapid will demand power sharing even if Shelly does not. Besides, Lapid has hardened dramatically on ANY unilateral stupidity. It is his, “I won’t come to negotiations with a fig leaf” platform. Plus he has made it plain that he is only interested in an interim solution dealing with Areas A and B. Plus maybe 2 or 3 Shas MKs including Deri would vote for it. 8 would vote against, especially after tomorrow when blood, G-d forbid, is shed at the Kotel because of the Women of the Wall. Even if blood is not shed, a Livni imposed WOW fiasco will alienate Shas from anything run by Bibi….and Lapid of course. When Sharon proposed the Gaza withdrawal and lost the support of 13 Likud rebels, he could still lead for over a year with 27 votes to its final conclusion. Bibi might lead for one week…, and he knows it. The situation if far more complicated than it was in 2005. People think they know how Lapid thinks, and they understand nothing about him. They think that he is a dove, and he is not. Back when all the new MKs were making introductory speeches when the new Govt. was installed, after Feiglin made his speech, Ya’ir Lapid was the first person to run to the base of the podium to shake his hand along with another Yeish Atid MK as Feiglin descended from the podium.
In conclusion from the Beit El water tower, one can see the entire skyline of Tel Aviv. One can even recognize the distinguishable buildings in downtown Tel Aviv. No one is going to be so stupid anymore especially after Haifa was bombed for a month in 2006. It just won’t happen, and because of the complex situations above along with Netanyahu’s far weaker position than Sharon, it can’t happen without him simply being squashed by Lapid and Shelly. After he announces this, his 15 seats (which is more like 10) will keep him in power for one week.
dovbear Said:
What did the likud central committee do to the likud rebels who opposed Sharon forcing a split and losing big in subsequent elections?
They moved them so low on the lists, most never made the cut. Even stalwart Uzi Landau was tossed out. I am sure that message has not been lost on the current crop of pygmies.
As Sharon once said “It’s good to be a minister and Deputy minister” add all those patronage jobs that could be lost.
dovbear Said:
Will they vote against if an agreement is a done deal and or the government will fall by their votes? History has shown your expectations will not materialize if it comes down to it.
I have done some math like Labor 15 meretz 6 Arab parties 10-11 likud beitanu at least 15 Shas 11 livni 6 mofaz 2 votes for and the Haredim abstaining. so those in favor on paper is between 60-65 votes. I included Shas because Deri and Ovadia Yosef have a history. To vote no today would mean they were wrong before and must take responsibility for it. The Likud has never deposed a sitting leader by vote either in the government or in the central committee.
Begin came back from Camp David with a signed agreement and asked the Knesset to approve although by law it’s not required. Only Jerusalem and the Golan must have a referendum to change their status.
If those opposed to a two State agreement of any kind allow BB to proceed unfettered and will only act or make any move to stop it after the fact history has shown by then it’s too late and all those against will make the excuse that they couldn’t prevent it so they went along.
Trust no politician who allows BB to get as far as he already has beginning with his Bar Ilan speech. He should have been deposed then.
Just to help you with the math, if Bibi loses half his seats, he will have to power share with Shelly Yucky and Ya’ir Lapid. He won’t be able to play Top Boss. Sharon could do it because he outnumbered Labor before his announced idiocy, 40 to 18. Squooshy Bibi has no such luxury.
This is all nonsense. Because of the Gaza War and Surrender on Day 8, Bibi lost all of his doves in Likud in the Likud Primary four days later. Half of the Yisrael Beiteinu MKs are against any type of 2 State solution. If he tried to pull this stunt, he would be lucky if ten Likud/ Beiteinu MKs stuck with him, more like 6. Sharon had 40 seats before he decided to withdraw from Gaza. He had 13 rebels against him in Likud after the Likud referendum, leaving him with a bare minimum of 27 seats to march ahead with the Disengagement. Netanyahu would have ten maximum who would stick with him if he tried to pull such a stunt. He may be a coward, but he is a cornered coward. He is cornered by people far more brave than he is. The squooshy Bibi is stuck. He can’t lead such a unilateral effort with ten seats left in his party.
It’s interesting that I just read an article by Ben Caspit in this weekend’s jpost which claims proof that the left wing, European funded groups fighting against deporting the illegal African migrants have as their secret goal the destruction of Israel’s character as a Jewish state. This is all part of an organized multi-pronged assault, trying to undermine both the countries Jewish character, moral and security.
Bill Narvey Said:
There is a typical liberal answere to everything,form a group.
Yamit, by your #3 & 4, I see you continue to give advice to the Israeli government and people via Israpundit, that neither have taken nor will they be taking you up on anytime soon.
Given the certainty you evnince in your views and the passion with which you express them, I challenged you many times to either join a group with views aligned with yours, if such group exists and if not, start your own.
I presume you have not done so because you find the Israpundit forum comfortable, safe and a place where you can find some who give you the adulation you believe you deserve and get off on.
I challenge you again Yamit to leave the comfortable safe shelter of Israpundit and go into the real world to test your views, theories and mettle against the government and the people of Israel.
I am ignoring Narvey after all these years and all the words, he has learned nothing and understood nothing.
Canadian Otter Said:
I think both you and Sherman should see this.
About the State of Judea
Here is the way to blow the whole Peace Process up for good.
Mobilize several thousands to demonstrate adjacent to the Temple mount. Proclaim their aim to retake the Temple Mount by force of numbers at a time of their choosing. March en mass around the Temple mount for hours and hours proclaiming their intentions. make sure that all the worlds media are on hand to film and interview the leaders and participants. This process will be duplicated twice a week. Then let both the Arabs and Israelis do their thing. I would expect At least a major intifada and at best an all out war.
Concurrently proclaim that if the Israeli government and the citizens of Israel do not want the Territories then thousands of good Jews will return their citizenship and rights back to the Israeli government and stay put inviting other Jews from Israel and abroad to join them.
Then as Stateless people demand the UN intercede and afford them both protection and sustenance even autonomy. Jews who stay will be armed and prepared to defend themselves and their settlements.
I can see a governmental crisis resulting in the fall of BB. I can see if it’s done right a rebellion in some of the major IDF units which might become a contagion.
From that point the State of Israel will have ceased to be recognized as a Jewish State as all the real Jews will have abandoned her.
Bottom line is to shame mainstream Israelis into confronting who and what they are and what and who they wish to become.
It’s never the Sheeple who change history and influence events but small numbers of committed zealots willing to sacrifice all for their principles and beliefs. Numbers in such cases do not matter as much as results.
Our unexplainable inaction – Behind the sudden screaming headlines of indignation over the US govt STASI-like behavior, are years of citizen apathy as the US govt implemented tyrannical policies under the excuse of fighting terror.~~~ Israelis also display a strange sort of inaction as Jewish rights are violated, and as their land is taken over by Arabs, in one way or another. The dismantling of Israel started with the surrender of Temple Mount after the unexpected 1967 victory. It was followed by strategic Sinai, and then Gaza. ~~~ This dismantling process is now gaining momentum as the govt allows Arab mobs to attack Jews, and PA Arabs and Bedouin to take over large swathes of land and then legalizing their ‘ownership’. ~~~ Martin Sherman is not being an alarminst when he presents his concerns for the future of Judea and Samaria. The situation is so dangerous that Jews should be taking a much more active role to restrain a govt that regards itself as unaccountable to the people – while blatantly failing to secure the safety of the land and its citizens. Jewish strength is being tested every day. The Israeli govt senses confusion, tiredness, and disunity among the population. The time is right for the power elite to take the next step in the dismantling of Israel.
The anti-Israel machine is made up of various parts, including CUP’s, NGO’s, the BDS movement, the UN, advocacy/activist organizations, both in the Mid East and the West, so many Western nations committed to pushing the TSS and blaming Israel for that not yet happening and some Israeli MK’s and prominent Israeli – Jewish organizations in and outside Israel and a number of anti-Israel or anti-settlement pundits all are well funded that enables these parts to work together in tandem to create a geopolitical perspective that puts Israel behind the 8 ball.
Sherman’s call for rejection of any Israeli MK who calls for unilateral withdrawal and for raising funds for conferences to object to same as well as surveys that are geared to counter surveys supporting withdrawal will not per se be sufficient.
Those leading voices that reject the positions of this anti-Israel machine and the narrative and propaganda that supports those positions will have to do more than seek funding for conferences and surveys.
They must themselves join ranks and become lightening rods to draw a very great many from Israelis, Jewish and non-Jewish Western societies including the influence peddling media to join their ranks and begin to shout as loud, if not louder against the anti-Israel machine.
Yes it will take money to accomplish that, but just funding conventions and surveys will as noted, be insufficient.