By Ted Belman (originallty published in Oct 2018)
President Trump walked back his remark from he supports a two-state solution to he supports whatever the parties want. But that isn’t an improvement. For 30 years the parties have not been able to reach an agreement based on what they want.
President Obama tried to remedy that situation by imposing a solution on Israel to no avail.
Since taking office, Trump has taken a different approach. He is seeking an agreement that ignores the PA, which he is currently destroying, and instead speaks directly to the Palestinians, whom he believes are interested in a better life rather than in destroying Israel.
In addition, he has recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and has proceeded to unravel UNRWA thereby taking two final status issues off the table
Plus, he and his Ambassador to the UN, Nikky Haley, have relentlessly attacked the UN and its agencies for their bias against Israel. Also, he has withdrawn America from both UNHCR and UNESCO.
Finally, inline with his rejection of multilateralism, he is ignoring the Quartet and the UN and going it alone to achieve a deal not bound by “the dogmas of the past but on the possibilities”.
In my recent article, Trump’s Deal of the Century, I wrote:
“In a recent interview, Jason Greenblatt, Pres Trump’s special envoy, said “our plan begins with reality. It recognizes the history of the conflict of course, but [other plans] were always relying on tired notions of what it should be. Instead, it focuses on what it could be.”
“In explaining why he is putting all this effort into achieving peace when there are bigger problems in the Middle east, namely Syria and Iran, Greenblatt said,
“we think that there are unique circumstances now that warrant an attempt at trying to see whether or not we can do this. President Trump, as devoted and dedicated to the State of Israel and the Jewish people as he is, he’s also dedicated to trying to help the Palestinian people, and the way we can marry those two ideas is by trying to reach a comprehensive peace agreement.”
“Thus, he is guided by two goals. He wants to strengthen Israel and he wants to help the Palestinian people. As he said, “We do believe that many Palestinians want to live in peace, and they want to see their lives improved.”
“So how can he marry these goals. He said, “Thus we must abandon all the old formulae and focus on what is doable”.”
Trump drove this point home in his address to the U.N. by saying that US will not be “held hostage to old dogmas, discredited ideologies”.
The Jordan Option as proposed by Mudar Zahran, leader of the Jordanian Opposition Coalition, and myself, recognizes that nothing acceptable to Israel can be achieved by negotiating with King Abdullah or Mahmood Abbas.
Both Abdullah and Abbas rejected such a deal in their recent speeches to the U.N.
Abdullah said,
“Only a two-state solution based on international law and relevant UN resolutions can meet the needs of both sides: an end to conflict, a viable, independent, sovereign Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with east Jerusalem as its capital, and a secure Israel, fully part of its own region, recognised by Arab and Muslim states around the world,”
Abbas said, amongst the many lies and misrepresentations,
“But now our view of the United States is that it does not have the right to be a mediator on its own. We have the Quartet.”
“I came before the Security Council on the 20th of February this year and presented an initiative calling for the convening of an international peace conference based on the relevant UN resolutions and the internationally endorsed terms of reference and parameters. Such a conference should involve broad international participation that includes regional and international stakeholders, led by the Permanent Members of the Security Council and the Quartet.”
“Peace in our region cannot be realized without an independent Palestinian State, with East Jerusalem as its capital and with all of its holy sites.”
“We want the right to self-determination. Nothing more or less. “.
When the Trump team is optimistic about the chances of reaching a deal, everyone else is pessimistic and attacks them for being naive or worse.
Of course, he knows that if he sticks to the past he will meet with failure as everyone else does. His optimism is born out of the fact that he is rejecting “old dogmas” and “tired notions” and the demands of the PA and its backers. Instead he is focused on “helping the Palestinian people” to have a better life.
This includes naturalizing them as Jordanian citizens and providing them with jobs and other forms of assistance.
After meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, he said “I like the two state solution.” and added, to everyone’s astonishment, “I want a plan that’s solid, understood by both sides, really semi-agreed by both sides before we present. I would say two-three-four months.”
Given the total rejection of his ideas by Abdullah and Abbas, how can he expect to have semi agreement within “two-three-four months”?
The only answer to that question is that he does not expect to have a semi agreement with either of them. He expects that Mudar Zahran, will replace Abdullah, and knows, based on my writings and Zahran’s speeches and interviews that he would have Zahran’s agreement on behalf of all Palestinians to his Plan. Eighty-three year old Abbas is irrelevant.
I can’t think of any other way to achieve semi agreement within two, three or four months. Can you?
People are now commenting to me about a discussion that happen in Oct 2018. Sorry, I longer remember what exactly went on.
I believe Ted, said Mudar was about to take over Jordan, no? He also said that at the turn of year 2019, Mudar was going to take over in a few weeks. I think that has been recently repeated as imminent again.
My primary points of current interest are:
I am waiting to see if Bib forms a coalition in the next few weeks.
Then on the Trump peace plan in June from the latest public information
which Abbas has clearly stated he will reject, as he preemptively rejected this or anything else from the current USA Administration.
I hope Bibi will follow through after Trump has had his plan rejected and apply Israeli Civil Law to all the Jewish Towns in Judea/Samaria. Latest indicators are this would meet with Trump’s approval and would not interfere with his plan. This and Israeli building in E1, Gush Etzion and elsewhere would be most beneficial for Israel.
On the Jordanian Option and Trump peace plan I will sit back for now and wait to see what if anything actually happens on the ground.
@ Bear Klein:
I think the answer to your question is jobs. Jobs for the Arabs in Jordan along with economic stimuli for Jordan and financial compensation for those Arabs that move to Jordan and sell their homes in West Bank. Trump understands that most people can be motivated by money. Seventy years of total failure is enough, a new approach is needed.
@ Bear Klein:
Politics… especially Arab style, are like the Forrest Gump remark about the box of chocolates…”you never know what you’re going to get”..
Remember folks…. that one day Nasser was denouncing Hussein as “that malignant little dwarf on Amman….” and only 3 days later was kissing him on both cheeis as he received “my beloved Arab brother”…a not uncommon phenomenon in the Arab world where Tackhiya is ”king”
I’d say that the focal point is “what does Trump imply when he says he likes “the 2 State idea” …does he mean Israel and Jordan ……?? He’s making the obstructive, objectionable and dangerous local assassins inconsequential beforehand.
That’s the whole thing… the rest falls into place bit by bit after that. Like a couple of tugs nudging an ocean liner into, or out of a berth…….Of course “there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip”…….So …….we must patiently wait. as Jews have already done for nearly 2000 years.
As for me… I have always solidly supported the (so obvious ONLY real answer) “Jordan is Palestine Option”, as outlined by Ted Belman and Mudar Zahran and cannot applaud them enough for their brilliant but hard. slogging, often thankless work. If successful they will go down in Jewish history amongst the founders of the REAL ISRAEL…as it was meant to have been from the beginning of the modern era.
Just my opinion.
@ Ted Belman:
I HAVE thought about it; very much indeed… and on the whole, I agree with your statements. You have been working inside and we have been sitting outside, so there is no comparison with what you know and we know. You are party to privileged info and we know only what we hear and read in the news outlets.
And…there has never been any doubt in MY mind but that Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. He does contrary things sometimes, which, in MY opinion are just to get his opponents off balance… leaving them open for his real aim, which is generally the correct move.. Typical, clever, deal maker, which we all know he is…par excellence. He has brought about changes in the American political practice of chicanery which I’ve never seen in my lifetime– which has touched the tenures of more than 13 Presidents…..so far.
I never forget that Nixon (whom I think historically will go down as one of the better Presidents) always said that because he showed he was edgy, opponent countries never knew what he would do next, it kept them off balance, which was good for America. (paraphrased).
We like to exercise our wits and capabilities for reasoned speculation, which we sometimes take too far, until it becomes a doubled-down commitment. I enjoy the reasoning behind much, even if I don’t agree. Sometimes it becomes “a battle of wits”.
I accept “the irresistible logic of facts” which cannot be ignored by thinking people, Although some, perhaps writers, have the persistent qualities of mosquitoes who haven’t had their suppers yet.
@ Edgar G.:
Ted, has said it will all happen by the end of the year so I will wait and see. To your multiple comments I am not agreeing or disagreeing but simply passing on comment.
@ Edgar G.:
Like I said Mudar is the only game in town. Trump, who wants to “win”, has no other option but to embrace Mudar. That’s a fact and I think you agree with that.
Many pundits always complain that Trump does not have a Plan B. Do you think he would be destroying UNRWA and the PA without a Plan B. He must have something in mind to replace them. Also as I have written many times, Trump is implementing his plan before tabling it. In fact, there is no Plan to table.
Once Mudar takes power by the end of the year there will be no need for a plan. Jordan and Israel already have a Peace Agreement. Thus that will be the end of the peace process. Think about it.
@ adamdalgliesh:
You totally misread my remark.
I repeat, you are ignorant about what Mudar and I have accomplished in advancing our plan. Do you agree?
My inside information is second only to Mudar’s. You think I am only expressing my opinion to justify ignoring it. The fact is that my “opinion pieces” are laden with facts about what is going down. I am opening the window a bit for all my readers. Yet you choose to ignore what I am telling you.
I have never stopped you from expressing your opinion. I have not bashed you in the slightest.
No, I did not want to end the debate. I am not debating. I can’t give you more information than I have already. If that information doesn’t convince you or at least causes you to be cautious in rejecting my “opinion”, I have nothing more to say on the subject .
@ adamdalgliesh:
It certainly would be “long and hard” and in my view bordering on impossible…..Just my opinion of course and I could be majorly wrong. But always think of the autocratic 1st ruler of Israel..Ben Gurion who said that he had to deal with “a 100 Prime Ministers”..
To me that means NO coalescence for your undoubtedly good idea. You have Jews clinging to Israel…. abandoning luxurious living, lucrative professions and friends…. coming to Israel to live in The Land….they don’t know why… but one thing they DO know is that very many of them are avowed atheists, even though they turn up to some synagogue or other on Rosh HaShana and Yom Kipur, maybe even other Chagim..
@ Edgar G.: I beleave that there is a way to raise the conciousnessnesses of the “silent majority ” of Israeli Jews who do care about their country. What is needed is someone to investigate and then expose in detail on the internet , in books and in the right-wing press (there are a few right-leaning newspapers, in spite of the Left’s over-all domination of the press) how they have been disenfranchised by the self-appointed secret Israeli ‘deep state” government. Once they really understand how they have been dienfrachised by what amounts to a semi-secret conspiracy, it will be possible to get them marching in the streets, maybe even doing a little street-fighting with the leftist demonstrators, and above all going to the polls for a party (it might have to be a newly formed party; new parties are frequently started in Israel and sometimes get into the Knesset) that swears it won’t rest or support the government, vote a budget, etc., until the necessary restrictions on the courts and the unelected bureaucrats are enacted into Basic Law. If we can somehow persuade some right wing politicians and intellectuals to abandon the unrealistic , going-nowhere schemes that now preoccupy them, and instead turn their attention to changing Israel’s internal political system, this is a very feasible strategy for beginning the process of Israel’s liberation. As I’ve said many times before, Edgar, it is going to be a long, hard process. There are no quick, magical solutions. But if the Israeli majority can be motivated to regain control over their countries’ government, then Israel can win through in the end.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear you KNOW It just doesn’t work like that..a US general calling the Jordanian Chief Commander “telling him to turn the country over to whomever the USA tells them to”. You are trivialising my whole input on this matter, .. We all have different opinions; it’s a riveting subject, since the first day Ted announced his Plan, and enjoyable to debate.
You know as well as I, maybe better, that we’ve seen numerous times, Numerous times, that the US Army is in control of the Jordanian Military AND Intelligence, So THEY know far better than you or I what’s going on there, and wouldn’t be there at all unless they had good reasons which we can only speculate on from what we read n the news outlets..
And you surely don’t expect a casual phone call to immediately place a completely “UNEXPECTED” person in charge “tout suite”…
So since you’re not sure what I’m trying to tell you, which you freely admit, why make unfounded interpretations of what I am actually saying in, –as I thought– clear to understand print. Just say you disagree ….I can take it….and then say why. I can take that too.
Also you didn’t just mean “The Govt. Falling”….. you meant total and utter collapse of the whole social structure. In other words complete ANARCHY. …which is what would happen if your meaning came to pass.. Correct me if I’m wrong please.
@ Edgar G.:
I am not sure what you are trying to tell me. Are you telling me that you believe if a USA General calls the Head of the Jordanian Military they will just overturn the King and turn the country over to whomever the USA tells them to? Which you believe is Mudar?
By the way what I meant by the government falling was the security controls of the KIng (Police, Secret Police and Army).
@ Bear Klein:
I forgot to mention that “The Jordanian Government” has “fallen” several times and nothing happened. The pygmy king just appointed some others. At such a time, the country is at it’s weakest, but no outbreaks of the sort of anarchy you visualise has ever happened.
If such ever did happen Israel would step in with vigour; they couldn’t allow a situation such as you suggest to develop, a mile or two from their easily crossed eastern border. .In fact, if there was a real outbreak of violence, lots of shells and missiles would almost certainly find their way into Israel.
@ adamdalgliesh:
You’ll only get massive turnouts in Israel for Lefty causes , because they have large groups of very energetic useful idiots, who’d turn out if the cause was to donate free refrigerators to the Eskimos…..or if a revered tzadik has passed away, the whole religious population will come in their hundreds of thousands. Apart from a natural support for the tzadik, they also feel that they are showing extra piety.
If it’s for the security of Israel, the people take it for granted, so a minimal ragtag few thousand supporters will turn out. They have already long ago become accustomed to the daily leaching of a life here… a life there, a sort of fatalistic expectation that has been become inbred into most Jews for a very very long time.
My opinon.
@ Bear Klein:
There’s a HUGE difference between the complex precipitous terrain, logistics, etc. and not to mention the strategic needs of the Afghanistan ongoing war, compared to bidding farewell to an unpopular, stumbling-block, petty kinglet, right next door to Israel, to ease a suppurating boil. . The boots on the ground are already mostly there and even if more were needed it would be merely very temporary. You forget that Israel would be a surrogate, indeed a major player in events there.
Again purely my opinion.
@ Bear Klein:
Well it’s a possibility, but if the US has control of the Jordanian army, as it is supposed to have, then a little stiffening in ways that I personally don’t have the skills to lay out, would suffice. The Army would be the strongest by far, organised part of the population, who, most of them are not waiting to rush to show that they are Jihadists, or ISIS or Muslim Brotherhood members.
Then there would be…I hope, Mudar’s supporters, . Your scenario seems to indicate a country suddenly bereft of any controls and left to run wild like a chicken without it’s head. This is in NO way a scene with which the US would be involved. All their plans and movements would be laid well in advance, and they and their allies would move in, more or less comparatively painlessly.
In the case of your expected happening, they would be isolated groups not allied to one another, and the more easily suppressed. It seems more logical to me that A follows B, follows C etc. I’ve given other reasoned possibilities in earlier posts above on this.
Just my opinion.
Right on, Bear!@ Ted Belman: I haven’t called you a liar, Ted. And I don’t think you are a liar. I just think your opinion is wrong about this one particular issue, although I agree with you about many others.
I interpreted this to mean that you wanted to end our debate about this issue, and that was and is fine with me. As I explained, my real purpose is to interest some readers in my own plan, rather than to bash yours. I apologize for getting to caught up in our argument.
However, I am dissapointed that you have continued to bash me even after both of us called for a truce, calling me “absolutely and totally ignorant,” and accusing me of calling you a liar, which I never even thought, or much the less said. I have never suggested that there is anything wrong with your moral character.
And while I have no pretensions of being an expert on Jordan, I am far from being completely ignorant about that country. That’s not fair!
Could we please call a truce and end this now?
@ Edgar G.:
Edgar if Jordan government falls, the country could break apart it will be ISIS, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood and various clans all fighting each other if the government control falls apart. The typical re-run of some of the other middle-east countries is a real possibility.
You actually think the USA under Trump is going to put lots of boots on the ground like they did in Iraq and Afghanistan?
@ adamdalgliesh:
I don’t think that Radical Islamists would be able to take over Jordan without ferocious opposition,, and indeed might easily fail. If the Americans involved a mere tithe of their power, there would be NO CONTEST. No Arab army could stand against the US when in a serious mood.
The people want solid, forward-looking rule and economic benefits like other normal countries.-, and it’s clear that they have serious and growing dislike of the king and his ruling cabal. It’s as if they are finally arriving in the 21st. century.
@ Ted Belman:
It’s important–in MY opinion— because Trump has committed himself to fixing the unfixable, which it would, and even though beside world affairs it’s a backwater, he has laid himself out in showing the special respect he has for the Jewish People and the interest he has in the area.
Besides if Mudar could not show he has significant support, it would be almost like imposing and manipulating an unpopular puppet into power, against the run of public opinion, which goes exactly contrary to his widely avowed policies..
This may not be the answer you expected; just my feeling..
@ adamdalgliesh:
I saw a re-enaction and it was ONE Jordanian soldier who was eventually shot by a US guy. I have no explanation None was given. If t was hushed up how is it we all know about it. Probably played down, PUBLICLY because it would interfere with greater things ongoing..
I wouldn’t expect that an isolated incident would show that the US has no real grip on the Jordan Miiiltary. An isolated incident.
@ adamdalgliesh:
If Ted posts the names of those leaders, who are at the moment walking around freely it’s the kiss of death for them, which should be obvious.. That is not a wise request. I’m sure Ted will say NO.
@ adamdalgliesh:
You are absolutely and totally ignorant about what MUdar and I have accomplished in advancing our plan. Yet you are quick to dismiss it. I know a great deal about it and you know nothing yet you are willing to disbelieve me. In fact, your rejection of what I have said categorically is tantamount to calling me a liar. Why would I lie?
Ted, I realize that I have no hope of convincing you or vice versa. But I do hope that I can win over some Israpundit readers to my alternative plan, which I think is more realistic and has a better chance to succeed. It is grounded in the belief that the majority of Israeli Jews have a better chance of influencing events within Israel than anyone in Israel has of influencing events in Jordan, other Arab countries, or even the United States. The esessnce of my plan is that Israeli patriotic leaders (there are some) should organize massive protests and get-out-the vote drives to force changes in the Israeli Basic Laws that will remove the present unelected, self-appointed Israeli elites (the courts, and the civil servants who control the ministries of Justice, Foreign Affairs, Defense, the Mossad and the Shin Bet) and replace them with personnel accountable to parliament, elected members of the Cabinet, and ultimately the Israeli-Jewish people. Once such changes are made, the Israeli government will be forced to end its appeasement of Israel’s enemies. And that will make a big difference in the long run. Even so, the struggle for victory and hence long-lasting security for Israel will be a long, bitter and difficult one. There are no quick fixes. The ideas that not only Ted but so many other people have proposed, that Israel can somehow come up with a quick fix by manipulating politics in foreign countries, is unrealistic, and a diversion of time and energy from the difficult, but achievable route to an Israeli victory.
I am right and you are wrong. I have no interest in convincing you. Time will tell.
@ Ted Belman: Yeah, but what evidence is there that Washington does support him? And what evidence is there that American support, even if he has it, will get him into power in Jordan? The United States has supported the “Syrian Free Army” in Syria for years, still does to some limited extent, but the Syrian Free Army is not in power or even a major player inSyria today. In Afghanistan, the U.S. installed a pro-Western regime to replace the Taliban in 2003, but it is still struggling to stay in power despite massive U.S. military support. In Iraq, we installed a Shi’ite government way back in 2003,, and we have had troops there for fifteen years fighting alongside them, and they still are not firmly in control. On top of all that, Trump wants to withdraw U.S. troops from abroad, not send more of them. In order for Mudar to aquire power, would first of all have to persuade the USG that he’s “the one,” and then also persuade the USG to send 300,000 or so U.S. troops to install him in power. Is that really going to happen?
As for your idea that the Jordanian army will install him in power if ordered to by the U.S., this too is a fantasy. The Jordanian Army doesn’t take orders from the U.S. To the extent that it takes orders from anyone, it is Abdullah–whom you want to overthrow!
“Four years ago, Mudar was all exciting because a million man bedouin clan signed on.” Ted, I have never heard anyone say that there was a “million man Bedouin clan” in JordanIt is equally unlikely because in Zahran’s article published in Middle East Forum in 2012 ( the only article by Zahran that I found in that publication) he expresses hostility to the Bedouin in Jordan, and claims to represent the Palestinians of that country, who he writes are in conflict withand oppressed by the Bedouin. So a “million man Bedouin clan” if one existed (none does) is going to sign on to an anti-Bedouin politician? As for the interview with an ex member of parliament who says that Mudar has some support, we have to point out, he is an ex-member, not a current member. Is their any faction in the Jordanian parliament that supports Zahran? Also, notice the interviewee references a “Jewish guy,” apparently a reference to you, as evidence that Zahran has American and British support. In effect, then, he is taking you at your word rather than having any other sources for this information. So far, you have demonstrated that Zahran has the support of one politician or ex-politician in Jordan. Is that enough for him to take over? And you haven’t provided any evidence that Trump is inclined to send an American invasion force to install him.
@ M. Simon:
Try again.
Well that is odd. My comment went away.
Edgar G. Said:
What makes you think this is important to the US. Even if he had nominal support, the US will back him if they liked his potential.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Four years ago, Mudar was all exciting because a million man bedouin clan signed on. I invited their leader Abed to speak at the conference and paid of his expenses from the US where he lives. He spoke at the conference.
Just this week a posted the comments of a Jordanian MP who said, inter alia, that Mudar has large support and at the right time they will surface.
Finally since we have been going public with our Plan both in Israel and in Jordan since Trump’s inauguration, the mood of Palestinians and Israelis has shifted. I have been getting calls from Palestinian Sheiks who say they want to back Mudar and Mudar tells me that his support is rapidly growing in Jordan.
Mudar has more than enough support. His clan numbers 30,000 in Jordan.
@ Ted Belman:
Ted, I have great difficulty believing that the ‘all the leaders of the refugee camps in Jordan” signed on to a declaration partially drafted by an American-Israeli. Or that the head of the “largest Bedouin clan” sign on. (The Bedouin have whole tribes, not just clans, like the Fellahin.) What is the evidence for all this support? Have you read letters or telegrams from these people, in Arabic? With their names? Have you tracked down these individuals, and determined that they really are the “leaders” of these Palestinian refugee camps? How and by whom were they elected, if at all? It sounds to me like Mudar has been feeding you a load of_____, and you’ve just lapped it up.
Please post for us the names of these supposed leaders, what their leadership positions are, and how and from whom they obtained these leadership positions. I will have to see hard evidence before I will believe these claims.
@ Edgar G.: Edgar, the U.S. does not have a firm grip on the Jordanian military. Not long ago several Jordanian soldiers ambushed and killed several U.S. soldiers at a Jordanian army base. The matter was hushed up. The soldiers were not even punished. There have been many reports of IS and al-Queda sympathizers in the Jordanian army. Several Gulf states, most notably the U.A.E., are ruled by Bedouin sheiks. The U.S. gets along fine with these sheikhs and has no wish to overthrow them. On the other hand, if radical Islamists were to take over Jordan, the U.S. would be unable to get rid of them without a major invasion with U.S. troops. We have been trying for years to root out the radical Islamists in both Iran and Syria, but have so far not succeeded, despite the continued presense of some U.S. troops in these countries, and frequent bombing raids there by U.S. planes. If the Islamists would take over Jordan, too, the situation would become all the more difficult for the U.S. to reverse without amajor troop commitment. And Trump has made it plain that he wants to Withdraw U.S. troops from foreign countries, not send more in.
@ Ted Belman:
It just takes a little logical thinking, and remembering the salient factors. I hope I’m right.
@ adamdalgliesh:
All pundits agree with you, except me.
A year ago everyone was trashing Mudar and the conference essentially saying he was a nobody. Even Caroline Glick. Here is Mudar’s response.
https://www.israpundit.org/?s=Glick+mudar
I have often said if we have Trump’s support, we don’t need anyone else’s support.
Four years ago I helped Mudar put together a 15 page platform for the Jordanian Opposition Coalition he was organizing. All the leader’s of the refugee camps in Jordan ( I think 13) joined on and so did the largest Bedouin clan. We laid low during the balance of the Obama presidency and came to life with the inauguration of Trump
@ Edgar G.:
You get it.
Takeover by Islamists or East Bank discontented tribesmen…They in NO way could constitute any kind of government, primitive or modern, except to fight amongst themselves and eventually emerge with a Patriarchal system such as Bedouin Sheiks used to have in last century encampments-or a dictatorial “secret police” sort of entity. Nobody will stand for THAT. None of this would work with a modern population of 9 mlllions..
Besides aren’t you forgetting something Major……… Neither Israel or the US would allow such anarchy to occur. Especially since the US has a firm grip on the Jordanian military and intelligence..
THIS s the crux of the whole proposed Mudar installation.
Without them, even Mudar, allowing he has the support he says, would have the greatest difficulty. If he can show the US that he has serious valid support, he’s a shoo-in. It could happen.
It’s just like Trump, who has taken on this very challenging, virtually unsolvable problem, and who always keeps his cards close to his chest, to spring a “wild-card” on the scene and stand back with a smile that says I fooled you all….again. Not that I’m saying he’ll do that……. just….an errant thought ,,
I found only one reference to Zahran, very brief, on the MEMRI site which monitors public opinion in the Arab world. It is very brief, and gives no indication that Zahran is a major political player in Jordan. The Meir Amit Intelligence Center site and the Institute for Counter-terrorism site (an Israeli institute based in Herzlia) contain no references to Mudar Zahran. The Council on Foreign Relations has an article specifically addressing political discontent in Jordan, and the possibility that Abdullah will be overthrown. But it does not mention Zahran. It sees a takeover by either. Islamists and/or dicontented East Bank tribesman as a possibility. Mudar is not an Islamist, and I am not aware of any evidence that he has a support base among the East Bank bedouin tribes. Where is your faith in Zahran coming from, Ted? Is it just your own wishful thinking, or your personal friendship with Zahran? I wish you would devote your activism toward a more practical plan for improving Israel’s security and international standing.
Ted, I have searched the columns and articles of Israelis who are experts in Jordanian politics, including those with intelligence backgrounds and/or who write for intelligence agency connected sites , without finding any Jordan expert who believes that Rudar Audran has major support in Jordan and is a contender for power there. In fact, they don’t even mention him. Please correct me if I am wrong about this, but that’s what I read. I have also not discovered any American commentators with expertise in the Middle East or backgrounds in Middle Eastern intelligence analysis who consider Rudar to be a player in Jordan. Please correct me if I am wrong, but that’s what my own web searches have found. I have also not seen any evidence or reports that Trump has mentioned Zahran as a possible replacement for Zahran, or that any other senior American official in his administration has done so. What is the basis for your belief that Zahran can take over Jordan and then make peace with Israel?
@ Ted Belman:
The Pals would have to agree to an agreement with Israel to get a state but it is still on the table, based on what Trump has said. Since the Pals will not agree to whatever Israel might agree to they will not have a state.
Singers ideas are ruled out. Theoretically Jordan east of the river could become Jordan/Palestine if its government or ruler agreed to that. The King does not clearly.
@ Bear Klein:
My interpretation is that there will not be a new Palestinian entity but the plan will be good for Palestinians.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/greenblatt-tells-toi-us-wont-propose-israel-jordan-palestinian-confederation/
Ted Belman Said:
I don’t blame you, Ted. Because there’s only one problem with your plan. No Arab country will ever stress itself to solve Israel’s “Palestinian” problem. A rule of history.
Today’s Maths Test:
“How many 2-States in Palestine = A 2-State in Palestine?”
@ Miri Burgin:
Target dates do not always happen.
100%, Mr. Bellman!
“Given the total rejection of his ideas by Abdullah and Abbas, how can he expect to have semi agreement within “two-three-four months”?
The only answer to that question is that he does not expect to have a semi agreement with either of them. He expects that Mudar Zahran, will replace Abdullah, and knows, based on my writings and Zahran’s speeches and interviews that he would have Zahran’s agreement on behalf of all Palestinians to his Plan. Eighty-three year old Abbas is irrelevant.
I can’t think of any other way to achieve semi agreement within two, three or four months. Can you?”
It thrills me to know this in light of Pres. Trump’s comments.
The wooly bleaters have NO clue! hahha
Don’t worry about Bibi.
Ted, It is time to get Netanyahu’s loud and clear opinion over the Jordan option. Are you the one who’s going to get it? Cause I can’t see anyone else doing this successfully but you.
@ Ted Belman:
Even though I am a skeptic by nature it would be nice to have a truly friendly neighbor in Jordan that is Democratic and becomes Jordan/Palestine. Which does not mean I am not skeptical what may or may not be behind the curtain.
In any case Israel needs decisive leadership that takes control of the security breakdown on the Gaza border and as I keep repeating be ready for the day after Abbas and the meltdown of the PA that very likely will come after that.
Israel needs to apply Israeli Civil Law to all of Area C, build extensively and impose martial law on any PA cities that become violent. Stopping all work passes for Palestinians after that from violent areas and/or any families were a member commits a terrorist act.
Israel may need to stop all work passes anyway then as the security danger will be severely increased.
I prefer not to get into that.
How does one get from point A to B specifically in your plan Ted? How does it get implemented what are the steps?
Trumps ideas may fail because his assumption that Pals prefer better economics to destroying Israel may not be true. The Goal is the destruction of Israel and not making peace with it.