Mubarak and his supporters

Thanks to WaPo for this honest bit of reporting. The reports of the first week of protests suggested that Mubarak was a hated dictator that the vast majority of Egyptians wanted to go. This article puts the lie to that. T. Belman

In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak still has support, from rich and poor

By Griff Witte
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, February 3, 2011; 12:00 AM

CAIRO – For eight days, pro-democracy demonstrators roared their belief that Egypt’s 80 million people were ready to oust President Hosni Mubarak and start anew with elections.

But the melee that unfolded Wednesday in the capital when Mubarak supporters stormed the opposition-occupied Tahrir Square suggests that there are many in Egypt who are deeply invested in the current system – and will fight to preserve it.

While protesters call Mubarak’s three-decade reign a disaster, a cross-section of Egyptians has much to lose when Mubarak leaves office.

Businessmen with rich government contracts, civil servants, security officers, ruling-party activists and poor Egyptians who fear the instability that has descended on their country in recent days – all have a stake in ensuring that whoever comes after Mubarak changes as little as possible.

The country may be rich with revolutionary fervor, but Wednesday’s events proved that the guardians of the existing order still wield tremendous clout.

“There have been problems during Mubarak’s time, but at least we’ve had stability,” said Maher Salman, a 37-year-old businessman who was among those on the streets Wednesday shouting his approval of the president. “If he goes, we will be like Iraq and Tunisia. We don’t want all the things we’ve gained over the past 30 years to be lost.”

As with most in the pro-Mubarak crowd on Wednesday, Salman’s affection for Mubarak appeared genuine. But there was also strong evidence that the counter-demonstration was orchestrated from above, suggesting that powerful interests here are digging in for battle.

With Mubarak promising to leave the stage but resisting protesters’ calls for an immediate exit, the current phase of the confrontation “becomes very dangerous,” said Alaa al Aswany, the Egyptian novelist who has long been a leading voice in the call for democracy here.

“The fall of the regime is not only going to be harmful to the president but also to all of the people linked to the president,” Aswany said.

Fears of the poor

It is not only the powerful who are spooked by the departure of the only president many Egyptians have ever known.

Already the instability has brought an economic shock likely to continue as the government’s backers and its opponents struggle for control. Shops have been closed, trading was halted on the stock exchange and factories are dark. Many poor Egyptians say they cannot afford the unrest, and they blame the protesters for sparking it.

“These people have made us go hungry. They’ve stopped our work,” said Ahmed Sayed, 45, an auto mechanic who held aloft a poster of Mubarak smiling benevolently in shirt and tie.

While rich and poor alike have joined the call for democracy, the movement has been led by the professional middle class – lawyers, doctors, university students and engineers. Many of the poor, who constitute the majority in Egypt, said they mistrust demonstrators’ motivations and are concerned that the movement has a hidden foreign agenda.

Sayed, dressed in worn jeans smeared with oil, said no decent Egyptian would insult the president as demonstrators have Mubarak.

“I don’t read or write myself, but I know that Mubarak went to university, and since then he’s done nothing but serve us,” he said. “It doesn’t make sense to me that after all that, we’re just going to throw him away.”

The government has blamed pro-democracy demonstrators for the rioting and looting that have been a byproduct of the protests, and that view is repeated ceaselessly in the state-controlled media, although opposition leaders deny it.

Position of strength

While Mubarak has used fear to help maintain his grip on power, he has also proved to be a canny politician, one who knows how to dispense the favors and patronage that put people in his debt. He has kept Egypt out of war, managed crises and enacted modestly liberalizing reforms.

Taymour A. Hasseb, a consultant with the state-run newspaper Al-Ahram, said Mubarak does not get the credit he deserves for the good things he has brought to Egypt, including greater freedom of expression than exists in many Middle Eastern countries, such as Syria and Saudi Arabia.

“Egypt is better now than it was when he came to office,” Hasseb said.

And besides, the alternative is not pretty, he said. According to Hasseb – and to Al-Ahram – the Muslim Brotherhood would take hold here if Mubarak leaves. Pro-democracy demonstrators dismiss that view as a government diversion, but it is one that is widely believed.

Many of the president’s backers expressed confidence Wednesday that Mubarak may yet seek another term, no matter what he said Tuesday night.

“I’m not worried, because Mubarak is not going to go,” said Gamal Ali Ibrahim, 42. “There may be some wayward sons who dare to tell their father to leave his own home. But we are not wayward sons here in Egypt.”

Special correspondent Samuel Sockol contributed to this report

February 3, 2011 | 65 Comments »

Leave a Reply

50 Comments / 65 Comments

  1. Yonatan writes:
    Why don’t you tell me what you know…

    The Turks are pissed that Israelis killed their citizens on the flotilla ship instead of simply arresting them.

    The last time I checked, Turkey is still a Muslim-majority, multi-ethnic, multi-party democracy, a member of the NATO alliance and had not attacked anyone.

  2. Just as I thought. You don’t know anything for sure.

    I know that they backed a blockade buster, knowing full well what the outcome was going to be. I know that they have dropped almost all forms of cooperation with the Israel military, where there was major cooperation just a little while ago. I know that they were considering sending warships. I know that the secular military which ran the show for so long has lost its power to the islamist government. Why don’t you tell me what you know…

  3. Yonatan writes:
    Good for you, wait for the planes to breach the border before admitting defeat. Putz

    Just as I thought. You don’t know anything for sure. Putz.

  4. The last time I checked, Turkey was a member of the NATO alliance and had not attacked anyone.

    Good for you, wait for the planes to breach the border before admitting defeat. Putz.

  5. Yonatan writes:
    Just like Turkey, which you have failed to comment on because it shows the blatant fallacy of your argument.

    Just the opposite. It makes my argument that a Muslim majority country can be a multi-ethnic, multi-party democracy. The last time I checked, Turkey was a member of the NATO alliance and had not attacked anyone.

  6. AE wrote: The close US relationship with the Egyptian Army – which is dependent on US aid – has actually improved the chances that that the Muslim Brotherhood will not be a leading player in the future of Egyptian politics.

    Just like Turkey, which you have failed to comment on because it shows the blatant fallacy of your argument.

  7. I really enjoyed Yamit’s joke about Mubarak:

    Azrael, the archangel of death comes down to Mubarak and tells him he must say goodby to the Egyptian people. ” Why, where are they going?” he asks.

    yuk, yuk.

  8. Don’t be a putz. The close US relationship with the Egyptian Army – which is dependent on US aid – has actually improved the chances that that the Muslim Brotherhood will not be a leading player in the future of Egyptian politics.

    AE you fail to understand that the 1.3 billion of weapons America gives to Egypt year in and out frees up another 1.3 billion to spend on weapons from other sources than America like the 62 Migs now on order from Russia and Naval ships and subs. They already produce under license Abrams tanks and have absorbed all the American technology that goes with it. There is a lot more.

  9. Yonatan writes:
    Gee, you were so adamant just a month ago about how it was the best thing in the world that the US gave all the advanced weapons to Egypt. Now you have no idea how it will evolve.

    Don’t be a putz. The close US relationship with the Egyptian Army – which is dependent on US aid – has actually improved the chances that that the Muslim Brotherhood will not be a leading player in the future of Egyptian politics.

  10. AE wrote: I know enough to know that no one has any idea right now how the situation in Egypt will evolve.

    Gee, you were so adamant just a month ago about how it was the best thing in the world that the US gave all the advanced weapons to Egypt. Now you have no idea how it will evolve. I hope you have learned a bit of humility here…

  11. AE, my answer about different Muslims applies to Egypt’s army as is and as it has been for decades.

    As for what will be, that was my fortune cookie comment.

  12. Shy Guy writes:
    There are different Muslim strokes for different Muslim folks. You, of all people here, should know that.

    I know enough to know that no one has any idea right now how the situation in Egypt will evolve.

  13. AmericanEagle says:
    February 8, 2011 at 4:37 pm

    Without US aid their sources of income and their status and perks are not protected. So far they have supported the peace treaty with Israel.

    The aid is the ONLY reason they have agreed to maintain the treaty, even though they have violated the treaty completely in spirit and numerous times in action.

    If the Egyptian Army was a “Muslim” army, why would the Muslim Brotherhood be banned in Egypt for decades?

    There are different Muslim strokes for different Muslim folks. You, of all people here, should know that.

    We will soon see whether there is any sentiment in Egypt for a secular democratic form of government.

    Fortune cookie say “Rotsa ruck!”

  14. Yamit writes:
    The Egyptian Army is a Muslim Army and not based on a secular constitution with a specific constitutional mandate to Keep Egypt Secular. The Army controls the Biggest economic sector in Egypt and the Upper ranks do very well financially. If their sources of income is protected and their status and perks left in place, I see no reason to believe the Egyptian Army will behave or fare any different than the Turkish Army both supplied and trained by America.

    Why do you believe differently?

    Without US aid their sources of income and their status and perks are not protected. So far they have supported the peace treaty with Israel.

    If the Egyptian Army was a “Muslim” army, why would the Muslim Brotherhood be banned in Egypt for decades?

    We will soon see whether there is any sentiment in Egypt for a secular democratic form of government.

    You can speculate all you want – no one knows for sure right now.

  15. The Egyptian Army has no interest in being governed by a radical Islamic regime, or in fighting against Israel.

    That was also the Western conception of all intelligence and policy makers regarding the Turkish Army. The Egyptian Army is a Muslim Army and not based on a secular constitution with a specific constitutional mandate to Keep Egypt Secular. The Army controls the Biggest economic sector in Egypt and the Upper ranks do very well financially. If their sources of income is protected and their status and perks left in place, I see no reason to believe the Egyptian Army will behave or fare any different than the Turkish Army both supplied and trained by America.

    Why do you believe differently?

  16. AE wrote: It is the influence bought by all that hardware that will prevent the MB from taking over Egypt. The Egyptian Army has no interest in being governed by a radical Islamic regime, or in fighting against Israel.

    How’s that train of thought working out in Turkey? This was exactly the same thing that was said about them, yet the islamists are taking over and the military can’t do a damn thing about it. Watch the same thing happen in Egypt.

  17. Yonatan writes:
    It is intellectually insane to have all that American hardware sitting on the tarmacs in Egypt, unless this is what was wanted all along.

    It is the influence bought by all that hardware that will prevent the MB from taking over Egypt. The Egyptian Army has no interest in being governed by a radical Islamic regime, or in fighting against Israel.

  18. It is intellectually insane to have all that American hardware sitting on the tarmacs in Egypt, unless this is what was wanted all along.

  19. Shy Guy writes:
    From Israel’s point of view, what’s needed is for Israel’s pols and people to wake up from their stupor.

    Yamit writes:
    All we Israelis seem to be on the same page, with the exception of Ted.

    I’m glad that Ted is not on the same page as Yamit, George Soros and the 400 liberal Rabbis whether it is on Glenn Beck or anything else. It speaks well of Ted’s mature judgment and opinion.

    It is intellectually insane to wish for the MB to assume power in Egypt just to wake up Israel. I think the Israeli politicians are well aware of the jeopardy for Israel if they are surrounded by an MB regime, a Hamas regime, a Hezbollah regime and the soon to be nuclear Iranians.

    Israelis who are really interested in Israel’s security should be doing everything they can to support the real pro-democracy elements in Egypt and the Egyptian Army, which depends on the US for its training and funding, and which has an interest in continuing the peace treaty with Israel.

  20. Jew, I’m with you.

    My original question was to leftist Julia Coriat. That is why I asked it from her point of view of Egypt’s “freedom”.

    From Israel’s point of view, what’s needed is for Israel’s pols and people to wake up from their stupor. Will the MB taking over Egypt help do that? Time will tell but I would like us to wake up here and now.

  21. shy wrote

    For Egypt, in your opinion, is changing to the Muslim Brotherhood a good thing or even more bad than Mubarak?

    my point is not egypt but Israel

    for egypt the brotherhood might be worse

    for Israel it is better

    for the simple reason that the leftist deception of israel public opinion is based on the existence of “peace partners” like mubarak

    why do you think is shimon peres HaRasha that much supporting mubarak?!

    he knows that with mubarak also his deceptions will go

    there is german proverb (even the ima’h shemam have something good 🙂 to say):

    besser ein ende mit schrecken als ein schrecken ohne ende

    “better a horrible end than horror without end” (and the ima’h shemam know what they are talking about)

  22. ted wrote

    Between Mubarak and the Brotherhood, I’ll take the Mubarak.

    between a comatose state and the option of chemotherapy you take the perpetuation of coma

    with mubarak you prolong the decepting illusions of “peace” and “peace treaty”

    the brotherhood take over bears the chance of truth coming out

    and i do not have fear of war

    as you used to say: there is no peaceful solution

    forgotten?

  23. AE, the leftists anti-Jews are what they are. There are some liberal Jews of the more observant persuasion but they’re a fraction of the total and a sub-atomic particle of the US voting population.

    Here’s a recent great Ramirez cartoon, which depicts to a tee what Obama is about.

  24. Shy Guy writes:
    And in the news, there’s American “smart power”. Heh. Video comment on Obama.

    For those who missed the fact that Imam Obama was the least qualified and least experienced and least intelligent president in US history – he is an illusion created by the the Democrat Party and the dominant left wing media in the US – his envoy to Hamas after he was elected and his subsequent apology speech in Cairo in 2009 should have warned them of what was to follow.

    Obama has never acknowledged that the conflict in the middle-east is solely due to the refusal of the Arabs to accept Israel and their attempts to wipe it off the map. There can be no meaningful progress without openly acknowledging these facts which are an impassable barrier to any possible peace. Thus he pressures Israel to concede and compromise, without asking for any compromises from the Palestinians in return, which will lead nowhere.

    Now, he’s playing with fire once again by making overtures to the Muslim Brotherhood.

    It is incumbent on every Israpundit and every Israeli to do whatever they can, and use all the influence they can exert on their liberal Jewish friends in the US who are still deaf, dumb and blind as we saw with the 400 Rabbis and their attack on Glenn Beck, to rid the political world of Imam Obama at the next opportunity in November 2012, while opposing all his destructive domestic and international initiatives in the meantime.

  25. There is a belief, specially among the voung, that the elimination of a dictator will result in a country with better living conditions for the general population. Cuba had a head of cattle per inhabitant (the highest ratio in the world), modern factories (American sugar mills would send some of their equipment for repairs) thriving mining operations (most of the 15 lb of manganese requieed to make a ton of steel came from Cuba, the corrosion resistant steel used by Flagler to build the bridges over the sea for the railroad to Key West came from Cuban mines. There were 160 sugar mills in Cuba when Castro took over. Today there are less than 30. The same thing can be said about Iran after the fall of the Shah where the current goverment is setting civilization back 1,200 years. The same thing will happen to Egypt if Moslem fanatics susbstitute the current goverment.

  26. Yamit writes:
    Get another attack mode this one is tired and boring as well as a lie.

    I am not attacking anyone – just exposing the truth. Your ignorant attacks on Glenn Beck puts you on the same page as George Soros, the 400 liberal Rabbis and Hamas.

    Your calling this a lie makes YOU the liar.

  27. AE #16

    Get another attack mode this one is tired and boring as well as a lie. That’s what you have in common with American Presidents: Carter and Obama.

  28. Yamit writes:
    Linda the problem with AE is, he believes every word he hears on Fox News, now partly owned by the Saudis.

    Would you believe Glenn Beck is his Guru?

    Linda, what we are seeing is that this Yamit, who pretends to be a supporter of Israel but has beliefs about Israel’s only ally, the US, which are identical to that of Hamas, is completely ignorant about what Glenn Beck says and does. This also puts him on the same page as the 400 liberal American Rabbis who were paid by George Soros to attack Beck, who is one of the leading supporters of Israel, unlike the posturing and pretending we see from Yamit and his 400 Rabbis.

  29. Linda the problem with AE is, he believes every word he hears on Fox News, now partly owned by the Saudis.

    Would you believe Glenn Beck is his Guru?

  30. The Telegraph

    Egypt protests: America’s secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising
    The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html

    Egyptian protesters promise to destroy Israel
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWcKewmyh_o&feature=player_embedded

    Muslim Brotherhood Wants War With Israel
    Forex Bits | Yohay | January 31, 2011 2:54 pm GMT

    Mohamed Ghanem, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, calls Egypt to stop pumping gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with it’s eastern neighbor.
    http://www.forexcrunch.com/muslim-brotherhood-wants-war-with-israel/

  31. Rick writes:
    The cabal of the U.S. and the U.K. who are very much involved in overthrowing the Mubarak government not only are guilty of not supporting their Egyptian ally.

    False. They – including Israel – were all caught by surprise at the depth of the uprising as well as the timing. Mubarak has been getting away with his tyranny for decades only because he was an ally of the western alliance. Now they are caught between their desire to see more democracies evolve among Muslim countries and the dictator they supported all these years for geopolitical reasons.

    Claims that the Muslim Brotherhood will emerge as the controlling force are speculative. No one has any idea. Even the know-it-all Yamit wrote, “Nobody can know for sure.” The key to Egypt’s future political landscape lies with the Egyptian Army.

  32. The cabal of the U.S. and the U.K. who are very much involved in overthrowing the Mubarak government not only are guilty of not supporting their Egyptian ally. They have put Israel in jeopardy, and seem to be switching their allegiance to the very people who destroyed property and killed thousands of people on 9/11. This shoots up flares to our other allies that:

    a) they can’t count on the U.S. when the chips are down, and
    b) the U.S. is a paper tiger, and American threats and sanctions can be ignored.

    Not only will Egypt suffer material, social and economic destruction if the Muslim Brotherhood succeeds in advancing the global march of the Islamic Caliphate, but all western civilization and other nations that are trying to progress technologically, economically and socially will regress to the dark ages. Sharia will take care of the social end, and dhimmitude will demolish any remaining traces of democracy.

  33. Between Mubarak and the Brotherhood, I’ll take the Mubarak.

    Choose war with Egypt in the near future or war in 5-10 years from now.

    Mubarak in power delays the inevitable.

    Even if Mubarak stays on our relationship will have changed for the worse. Would America and the west support an Egyptian regime ruled directly or by proxy by the MB? If America cuts Egypt from American aid. Israel should reciprocally end American aid to Israel, (It will be cut anyway and inflation will reduce it’s already reduced purchasing power in the near future).

    Israel can attack enemies with nuclear ambitions like Iraq, Syria and maybe even Iran’s but would Israel attack Egypt with the Peace Treaty in force? Egypt has an advanced Nuke program and 2 small reactors. Some say with a push they could have nukes in 2 years.

    Egypt has gone to war against Israel 3 times Iran zero till now. A nuclear Egypt on our border I think is far more dangerous and even more likely than Iran to use them against Israel.

    We need the Sinai back and that runs through the MB controlling Egypt.

    Ted, Let’s hope this is not the ultimate choice. Right now, no one has any clue where Egypt is headed. The only stable force in Egypt is its Army, which has yet to assert itself. Let’s hope they take over and then take steps to build a democratic infrastructure including a new constitution which leads to a multi-party secular form of government as in Turkey.

    The last estimate of how much and how many of the Egyptian Army is already under the influence of the MB was “too many!!” Nobody can know for sure.

    Mubarak suppressed MB with internal security forces not the Army. There was a reason for that.

  34. Ted Belman writes:
    Between Mubarak and the Brotherhood, I’ll take the Mubarak.

    Ted, Let’s hope this is not the ultimate choice. Right now, no one has any clue where Egypt is headed. The only stable force in Egypt is its Army, which has yet to assert itself. Let’s hope they take over and then take steps to build a democratic infrastructure including a new constitution which leads to a multi-party secular form of government as in Turkey.

    According to Wikipedia, “The Brotherhood’s stated goal is to instill the Qur’an and Sunnah as the “sole reference point for … ordering the life of the Muslim family, individual, community … and state”.

    If Obama is found to be supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, he should be impeached.

  35. Isn’t it sickening that Obama is undermining in all possible ways a U.S. ally,
    calling for his downfall, instead of ‘minding his own business’ as Mubarak just told
    him, as he did on the green revolution, forsaking the Persian heroes … after he had
    encouraged them with his false promises to raise up to tyranny …

  36. Jew says:
    February 4, 2011 at 11:01 am

    bad things need to be changed. change has a price. and even if the price is war, it is worth it.

    For Egypt, in your opinion, is changing to the Muslim Brotherhood a good thing or even more bad than Mubarak?

  37. ted,

    you supported sharon and the disengagement

    you support now mubarak

    these are not compliments for your capacities as an analyst

  38. julia i agree with you,

    stability is not a supreme value. mubarak is a liar, and you cannot live eternally on lies. mubarak’s day of truth has come. he will probably die in the coming days.

    the israely ruling gang is composed of liars. their day of truth is approachung, too.

    stability is not the supreme value. bad things need to be changed. change has a price. and even if the price is war, it is worth it.

  39. blandoat:

    am cheering for Mubarak, mainly because Obama’s stabbing our closest Arab ally in the back is so vile and so far-reaching. May God reward him [in hell] according to his deeds. If Obama is put out of office, SOON, it will be for his good as well as America’s.

    Cheer as much as you wish-you are cheering for an empty suit whose day has come and gone. Mubarak is heading for the ash heap of history with his many millions of U.S. dollars stolen from the national tresury.

  40. Many of the poor, who constitute the majority in Egypt, said they mistrust demonstrators’ motivations and are concerned that the movement has a hidden foreign agenda.

    They are right. Obama has an agenda, an insane agenda, to align America with an Islamist bloc. As I said, it’s insane; and nobody knows this better than the Moslems. In reality, Obama is something of a pyromaniac, and the Egyptians are the house he wants to burn to the ground.

    If he goes, we will be like Iraq and Tunisia.

    That’s a telling remark. Sadaam was a hated leader, but the Sunni Arabs have suffered because of his fall. The Kurds and Shiites have profited, at their expense; and certain Westerners, such as Haliburton, have become fabulously wealthy. The US and EEC are looking forward to similar profit in Tunisia. I credit the poor Egyptians with common sense.

    I am cheering for Mubarak, mainly because Obama’s stabbing our closest Arab ally in the back is so vile and so far-reaching. May God reward him [in hell] according to his deeds. If Obama is put out of office, SOON, it will be for his good as well as America’s.