Russia’s Dep. Army Chief due in Israel today.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 5, 2015, 2:18 PM (IDT)
Russia’s deputy chief of staff, Gen. Nikolay Bogdanovsky, accompanied by a large military delegation, arrives in Israel for a two-day visit on Tuesday, Oct. 6, to discuss increased coordination between the two militaries. However, Moscow seems to be sending Jerusalem an altogether different message: Friday, Oct. 2, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the surprise deployment of Navy cruiser, the Moskva, armed with 64 advanced anti-aircraft missiles S-300 ship-to-air missiles opposite the Syrian coastal town of Latakia.
DEBKAfile’s military sources point out that Russia, without saying so publicly, has thus created an effective no-fly zone over most of Syria, most of northern Israel, including the Golan, as well as southern Turkey, for US aircraft based there for air strikes in Syria; Cyprus, the site of British air force bases; and Jordan.
Since 2012, The Obama administration has been discussing the possibility of establishing no-fly zones in northern and southern Syria on a number of occasions, but has shelved the plan whenever a decision was imminent. Now, with one move, Moscow has imposed a no-fly zone over Syria.
The presence of the wide-ranging S-300s means that the Turkish, British, Israeli and Jordanian air forces will need to coordinate their aerial operations in Syrian or Lebanese airspace with Russia, or face the risk of their planes being shot down.
In the view of DEBKAfile’s military sources, the only aircraft capable of evading those advanced missiles are stealth planes. Neither the Israeli, British, Jordanian or Turkish air forces, nor the US squadron in Turkey consisting of F-16 fighters, have such aircraft at their disposal.
The S-300 has a range of 150 kilometers and can shoot down any type of missile, including cruise missiles, as well as planes.
If US President Obama truly wanted to deal effectively with Moscow’s military moves in Syria, besides saying that Russia is bound to fail, he would have ordered the deployment of US stealth fighters to Turkey and Israel. However,may have been held back from this step by fear of antagonizing Iran, which has so far delayed sealing the nuclear agreement with the world powers by putting it to vote in parliament.
The presence of Moskva off the shores of Syria and close to northern Israel creates a new situation that will very likely be discussed in the talks that start Tuesday in Tel Aviv between Russia’s deputy chief of staff and his Israeli counterpart, IDF Gen. Yair Golan.
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu during their summit in Moscow on September 21 not to allow S-300 missiles reach the hands of the Syrian military, he made no promises about positioning them on a Russian warship in the Mediterranean facing Syria and northern Israel. .
Our military sources point out that Russian air strikes have not been confined to any single area so far, but the injection of S-300s into the war arena widens the Russian air force’s options.
In an interview with CNN on October 4, Prime Minister Netanyahu described how the Russian operation in Syria had affected relations with Moscow. “We don’t want to go back to the days when, you know, Russia and Israel were in an adversarial position,” he said. “I think we’ve changed the relationship. And it’s, on the whole, good.” He added that Israel’s close relations with the US were in a completely different and special category.
When asked whether he thought Russia’s intervention would cause instability in the region, he seemed to avoid giving a detailed response, only saying, “I don’t know. I think time will tell”.
However, on the topic of the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hizballah, the prime minister was very clear. ”If anybody wants to use Syrian territory to transfer nuclear weapons to Hezbollah, we’ll take action,” he said.
It marked the first time for an Israeli prime minister to speak publicly on the possibility that the terrorist organization could acquire atomic weapons.
…was Carl Levin, the leftist Michigan senator who in 2009 told Netanyahu that Israeli existential concerns about Iran must be subordinated to the Palestinian struggle for liberation. Levin is far more reptilian than any IDF assassin could ever be.
@ ArnoldHarris:
The most cold blooded Jew I ever met was a fellow kibbutz-nick who was 25% nuts and was a hit man for one of our security services.
He was real and even most of the people who knew him were scared of him. Sorry Arnold I do not know you personally as you state correctly but unless you have backed the online stuff with real work on behalf of the Jews, you are not even in the running of the top 500 hundred.
nice picture of Putin enthusiastically shaking hands with Nasrallah…. do tell.
doesnt look like collateral damage was a consideration
the pieces of the puzzle of the last few years are all coming together…. that mystery missing piece which explains everything going on that appears contrived and organized but makes no sense….. until now.
I think this is the real reason the russians want the syrian med base… and perhaps lebanon too. they want to be a player in the med gas situation whether as an investor or a spoiler to make their energy more valuable and stable to europe. I think we have found the real reason behind the whole shebang of the last few years of arabs spring.
this is where all analysis should focus. We have hit our oil well, so to speak. I would think energy interests want agreements on the borders…. this is what could bring “peace” and tons of money to players. Turkey and Russia will be concerned about their pipelines and oil and not want competitors or they want a piece of the action. Russia can play the role of spoiler and serve its self interest
@ Bear Klein:
BK, if you knew me personally and not merely as a commenter on Israpundit, you would correctly characterize me as the most cold-blooded Jew you ever encountered. I wore out my passions a long time ago. So, despite that the Russian Empire is the ancestral homeland of my family, I do not regard that country as “Mother Russia”. But I have high admiration for Rodina and the tough-minded systems of governance that have saved Russia from all the invasions it has undergone from the east, the west, and the south.
No sovereign state has permanent friends or permanent enemies. And the fact that Russia has close ties to certain of Israel’s enemy states and large organized gangs is a fact of life that need not interfere with Israel developing close ties to Putin’s government, the Russian nation, that country’s industries, and the leadership cadres of their armed forces. You do not agree with me on this issue, but if you think about it with passionless and cold-blooded analysis, you will find that the Jewish state and the Jewish nation have no real friends anywhere.
A possible exception to that status might well be the Evangelical Bible-oriented Christians of the English-speaking world, who constantly bring to our attention their love of us. However, we both are aware that their interest in us largely centers on convincing us that the savior should be ours as well. But we regard him only as an itinerant Jewish preacher who, having been put to death by the Romans in Jerusalem during the reign of their emperor Tiberius, had his memory recast as the direct son of HaShem; thus attempting to reformat Judaism into their own Hellenistic worship of an Olympian godlet. And the only way we can please such people is to destroy the links that have kept our Jewish nation alive for so many millennia.
So friendless we are, and that suits me nicely
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
some months ago the saudis apparently offered moscow stability and peace in its muslim provinces for not supporting Iran…. lets see how it all plays out.
Bear Klein Said:
Russia clearly is supplying and protecting the most lethal existential enemies of Israel at this moment. this must be the starting point of any reasonably asserted prognosis.
Bear Klein Said:
True…. russia would expect Israel to back off and take their assurances and Israel would hope they are telling the truth (LOL?)
Bear Klein Said:
This is the ONLY, SOLE card that Israel can play that would have ANY meaningful effect on soviet moves and threats. Building a real credible military deterrence to the russians which would also be a credible real threat. While that is going on, hope, or cooperate with GCC efforts to have their proxies hinder the russians at their bases (suicide bombs, sabotage, etc) I don’t believe the russians have any need for Israel and thus there is little self interest which will be the only reason they would do anything for Israel.
Quite a while back I drew attention to most of the arab spring victims being on the med basin and also tied in qaatar’s interest in off shore gaza gas.
I think that it is now more than a speculation that the toppling of govs is related to massive finds in the med basin of which we are still yet to know, but that all the players know. In such a circumstance it would be likely that those who stand to gain from the deposing of the govs are likely behind the spring. Guess who? Hint: benghazi
What no one mentions is that Russia and Israel are not currently enemies. They have different interests.
Neither one wants to get into battles with each other.
Please remember that Israel is also capable sinking the Russian ships and downing its planes. So it does have a card or two to play. Just like Russia has a card or two to play. The S-300 is highly dangerous but Greece has a system or two and Israel has war gamed against it.
Bear Klein Said:
this phrase is irrelevant to geostrategic diplomacy….. what is meaningful to all is self interest and trust does not exist.
In my view Putin seeks to replace the US as the regional guarantor of stability. first he wil establish power over the area using IS as his fig leaf; he will establish his loyalty and support to his allies(assad, iran, hezbullah)’ he will establish that without russia there are no solutions in the area of stability; he will seek to broker peace between GCC and Iran, not to achieve peace but to exercise authority; russian demonstrated power will demonstrate to all the players(summi, shia, iran, hexbullah, assad, GCC, turkey, Israel) that russia is the only reliable global power who can establish stability by the use of military power.
this leaves Israel in a pickle as it has always been clear that the muslim arab world is the obvious choice over Israel In the past Israel was in a similar position and was weaker… but they shot down russian planes. Israel should have used the window of opporunity of syrian weakness to deal hezbullah a death blow and allow the sunnis to fragment lebanon. Now russia will strengthen and support Israels existential enemies and attempt to thwart Israeli operations. They probably have already hindered Israeli operations under BB.
http://atimes.com/2015/10/grading-the-putin-school-of-international-affairs-codevilla/
Why is it irrelevant Arnold that they are the best allies of our sworn enemies? How can you rationally not emotionally ignore that fact. I know you love mother Russia but it is highly relevant.
@ Bear Klein
BK,
Whether or not Russia is an ally of Iran and Syria is irrelevant regarding Israel’s outstanding need to have friendly relations with that superpower. Because as long as Russian aircraft can blow Israel’s aircraft out of the skies over Golan and other parts of Syria, and is sending a large Russian army into Syria to fight Assad’s enemies, they call the shots.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker:
I asked Jonathan Spyer the the above questions. He maybe the foremost Israeli expert on the middle east. His answers are below:
.
Russian Generals are in Israel today to try and keep Israel and Russian air forces and Navies from shooting each other.
The trouble is Russia is the ally of Iran and Hezbollah the two enemies who are sworn and unrelenting enemies of the state of Israel.
Can meaningful and trusting relations be built with the ally of our enemies?
Russia wants to keep their client Syria from being completely destroyed. They and the Iranians believe if Syria is destroyed then the Sunni jihadis would next destroy the Hezbollah. They could then finish off Bagdad. Next they would take on a weakened Iran. If the foregoing happens.
Since the Russian only export of significance besides oil/gas are weapons & nukes they want to keep their best client Iran alive.
How is this reconcilable with Israel problem of Hezbolllah and Iranian soldiers now in Syria. The Sunni states of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC have the same issue. The USA is completely now reliable under Obama with the exception of weapon sales.
For Israel this is potentially a survival issue.
Israel has dithered into a situation in which they now have no option but to coordinate the Jewish state’s defenses with the Russian government and their expanding and powerful armed forces. Remember this: Russians, unlike Americans, do not bluff. Nor do they threaten actions they are not capable of sustaining. But play this situation correctly, and all can still be well. At least in the long run.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker