More on the Syrian front

US, Israel, Turkey, Jordan primed to strike if Assad activates chemical weapons

DEBKAfile Special Report December 3, 2012, 11:26 PM (GMT+02:00)

US forces in the region, Israel, Turkey and Jordan were all braced  Monday night, Dec. 3 for action against Syria in case Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered his army’s chemical warfare units to go into action against rebel and civilian targets his own country. None of the Middle East capitals are talking openly about this eventuality to avoiding causing panic.

However, oblique references to the peril and preparations for action came from US officials during Monday. White House spokesman Jay Carney said: “We have an increased concern about the possibility of the regime taking the desperate act of using its chemical weapons.”  Such a move “would cross a red line for the United States.”

Without going into specifics, Carney added: “We think it is important to prepare for all scenarios. Contingency planning is the responsible thing to do.”

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Prague was slightly more specific: Syrian action on chemical weapons remains a “red line” for the Obama administration, she said, and “would prompt action from the United States.”

Regarding contingencies, debkafile’s military sources report that the American force in Jordan and Jordanian units, who have been training for two months in tactics against Syrian chemical warfare units, are on a high state of preparedness. So, too, are the three special US command centers set up in Turkey, Jordan and Israel for coordinating such operations.

An American official “with knowledge of the situation” told Wired Magazine that “engineers working for the Assad regime in Syria have begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas.”

Anchored opposite the Syrian shore is the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group with 2,500 Marines. Facing it is the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s naval task force which too has hundreds of marines on its decks.

debkafile’s sources quote high-ranking officers in the Israel Defense Forces’ Northern Command as saying: “The coming hours and days are extremely critical for Syria. The situation on our northern front could blow up any moment.” They did not elaborate.

Later Monday, as the United Nations regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria, Radhouane Nouicer announced the pullout of nonessential international staff “because of the security situation,” Secretary Clinton flew into Brussels from Prague to discuss with NATO foreign ministers the deployment of Patriot anti-missile batteries at 10 points on the Turkish-Syrian border – a massive number.

NATO sources took note of the Syrian Foreign Ministry’s reply to the spreading reports. He said that the government “would not use chemical weapons, if it had them, against its own people under any circumstances.” This statement carried no promise about using such weapons against external forces, whether American, Turkish, Jordanian or Israeli.

In Istanbul, meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters at the end of his one-day visit: “What we are concerned about is Syria’s future. We don’t want the same mistakes to be repeated in the near future.” He went on to say: “We shall remember how some regimes supported the militants in Libya and how the situation ended with the killing of the American ambassador in Libya.”

This was meant by the Russian president as a warning to the US not to get involved in the Syrian crisis as it did in Libya.

Report: Syria Combining Chemicals for Sarin Gas

By Elad Benari First Publish: 12/4/2012, 1:16 AM

Engineers working for President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria have begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas, an American official with knowledge of the situation told Wired.com’s Danger Room on Monday.

International observers are now more worried than they’ve even been that the Damascus government could use its nerve agent stockpile to slaughter its own people, the report said.

The U.S. doesn’t know why the Syrian military made the move, which began in the middle of last week and is taking place in central Syria, nor are they sure why the Assad government is transferring some weapons to different locations within the country, as the New York Times reported on Monday.

“Physically, they’ve gotten to the point where they can load it up on a plane and drop it,” the official told Wired.com.

Sarin gas has two main chemical components: isopropanol, popularly known as rubbing alcohol, and methylphosphonyl difluoride. The Assad government has more than 500 metric tons of these precursors, which it ordinarily stores separately, in so-called “binary” form, in order to prevent an accidental release of nerve gas.

Last week, reported Wired.com, that changed. The Syrian military began combining some of the binaries. “They didn’t do it on the whole arsenal, just a modest quantity,” the official said. “We’re not sure what’s the intent.”

Back in July, the Assad regime publicly warned that it might use its chemical weapons to stop “external” forces from interfering in Syria’s bloody civil war. The announcement sparked a panic in the intelligence services of the U.S. and its allies, which stepped up their efforts to block shipments of precursors for those weapons from entering the country.

“This is a more serious moment than July,” the official said.

CNN confirmed the report later on Monday. A U.S. intelligence official told the network that the U.S. obtained intelligence over the past weekend indicating this concerning development.

The intelligence, the official said, came from multiple sources but declined to provide any more specifics about how the U.S. learned the information.

The report came several hours after the Damascus government promised that it wouldn’t use chemical weapons against its own people.

In a statement broadcast on government-run national television, the country’s foreign ministry assured the international community that Assad would not approve such a measure.

“In response to the statements of the American Secretary of State, who warned Syria against using chemical weapons, Syria has stressed repeatedly that it will not use these types of weapons, if they were available, under any circumstances against its people,” the statement said.

The statement came following one by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who said earlier in the day, “This is a red line for the United States. I’m not going to telegraph in any specifics what we would do in the event of credible evidence that the Assad regime has resorted to using chemical weapons against their own people. But suffice to say we are certainly planning to take action.”

A similar “red line” on chemical weapons was drawn for Assad by U.S. President Barack Obama in a statement he made in August from the White House.

“We cannot have a situation where chemical or biological weapons are falling into the hands of the wrong people,” Obama told reporters at the time. “We have been very clear to the Assad regime – but also to other players on the ground – that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized.”

Israel has expressed concern that the chemical weapons arsenal maintained in Syria will indeed end up in the wrong hands – specifically, the hands of Hizbullah or other terrorists who aim to annihilate the Jewish State.

A report published Monday by The Atlantic indicated that Israel has consulted with Jordan twice over the issue of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal, both times with plans to take out multiple sites.

Obama Warns Assad Against Using Chemical Weapons

By Elad Benari First Publish: 12/4/2012, 4:46 AM

U.S. President Barack Obama told Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad Monday not to turn chemical weapons on his own people, following warnings that Assad’s forces were mixing deadly sarin gas, AFP reported.

Obama publicly told the increasingly beleaguered Assad not to unleash the “worst weapons of the 20th Century” in the 21st, capping a day of alarming American warnings on the Syrian regime’s intentions.

“Today, I want to make it absolutely clear to Assad and those under his command, the world is watching, the use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable,” Obama said, according to AFP.

“If you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable,” he added.

An American official said earlier on Monday that engineers working for the Assad regime had begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas.

Back in July, the Assad regime publicly warned that it might use its chemical weapons to stop “external” forces from interfering in Syria’s bloody civil war. The announcement sparked a panic in the intelligence services of the U.S. and its allies, which stepped up their efforts to block shipments of precursors for those weapons from entering the country.

Several hours before Obama’s warning on Monday, the Damascus government promised that it wouldn’t use chemical weapons against its own people.

In a statement broadcast on government-run national television, the country’s foreign ministry assured the international community that Assad would not approve such a measure.

“In response to the statements of the American Secretary of State, who warned Syria against using chemical weapons, Syria has stressed repeatedly that it will not use these types of weapons, if they were available, under any circumstancesagainst its people,” the statement said.

The statement came following one by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who said earlier in the day, “This is a red line for the United States. I’m not going to telegraph in any specifics what we would do in the event of credible evidence that the Assad regime has resorted to using chemical weapons against their own people. But suffice to say we are certainly planning to take action.”

Israel has expressed concern that the chemical weapons arsenal maintained in Syria will indeed end up in the wrong hands – specifically, the hands of Hizbullah or other terrorists who aim to annihilate the Jewish State.

A report published Monday by The Atlantic indicated that Israel has consulted with Jordan twice over the issue of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal, both times with plans to take out multiple sites.

U.S. Officials: Preparations for Intervention in Syria

American officials said on Monday that the United States and its allies are preparing for the option of military intervention in order to secure the chemical and biological weapons in Syria.

The officials, who spoke anonymously, claimed that the possibilities for military intervention range from air strikes to targeted raids by military forces in the region. They added that although the U.S. government would prefer not to send military forces into Syria, there is an American special operations team currently training in Jordan.

NATO to Approve Patriot Missiles in Turkey

NATO foreign ministers are expected to vote and approve the stationing of Patriot missiles in Turkey, officials in the organization said on Monday.

The officials said that the purpose of deploying the missile batteries is to increase the sense of security in Turkey, which fears a Syrian attack on its territory.

Syria Violating Golan Ceasefire Agreement, Says UN Leader

By Elad Benari First Publish: 12/4/2012, 5:15 AM

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon accused Syria on Monday of serious violations of the 1974 agreement that separated Israeli and Syrian forces in the Golan Heights.

“I am concerned that the presence of armed members of the opposition and the ongoing military activities of the Syrian security forces have the potential to ignite a larger conflict between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic with grave consequences,” Ban said in a report to the UN Security Council, the contents of which were distributed Monday.

“There should be no military activity of any kind in the area of separation,” he added.

The UN chief noted that such activity poses a risk to the ceasefire, to the local civilian population and to UN personnel on the ground.

There have been several incidents of the civil war in Syria spilling over into the Golan Heights recently.

The last two incidents occurred last week, when residents of the religious Zionist town of Alonei Habashan, which is less than a kilometer from the border, reported that they heard explosions near the town, perhaps a result of a mortar shell that had been fired from Syria.

In a second incident the same night, an IDF vehicle was hit by bullets fired from Syrian territory into Israel during the fighting between the sides. There were no injuries or damage.

Several weeks ago, as IDF troops were patrolling along the border fence with Syria, their jeep was hit with some bullets that were fired from the Syrian side of the border. No one was hurt, but the IDF acted in accordance with the new rules of engagement and responded shortly thereafter with artillery fire at a building on the other side of the border.

The IDF changed the rules of engagement along the Syrian border after the fighting in Syria spilled over into Israel more than once.

The new orders instruct soldiers to respond if fire from Syria is dangerous and persistent.

Last Thursday, two Austrian soldiers stationed with the UN force on the Golan Heights were shot and wounded in Syria while their convoy was travelling to the Damascus airport.

The pair were part of the Austrian contingent of the United Nations Disengagement Observers Force (UNDOF) on the Golan Heights and were travelling to Damascus airport to fly back to Austria after their tour of duty.

The two soldiers were flown by helicopter to the Rambam Hospital in Haifa where they received medical treatment.

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We Reported Yesterday, Mon. 3 December:

Report: New Activity at Syrian Chemical Weapon Sites

By Chana Ya’ar First Publish: 12/2/2012, 1:06 PM

There are signs of new activity at Syrian chemical weapons sites, Western intelligence officials said, according to The New York Times.

The report, published Saturday, quoted a U.S. intelligence official as sayingthe regime of President Bashar al-Assad is “doing some things that suggest they intend to use the weapons.

“It’s not just moving stuff around,” he explained. “These are a different kind of activities.”

It is possible Syrian Army forces are preparing to use the weapons in a last-ditch effort to save the government, officials told the paper. However, it is also possible they are simply warning to Western nations about the implications of providing assistance to rebel forces, they added.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has said repeatedly that he will not allow an existential risk to the Jewish State. This past summer, Netanyahu said during an interview on the U.S.-based television program “Fox News Sunday” that it is essential to prevent Syrian weapons from falling into the wrong hands.

One major concern is the possibility that part of the Syrian arsenal may be transferred to Lebanon. “Could you imagine Hizbullah – the people are conducting with Iran all these terror attacks around the world – could you imagine them having chemical weapons?” he asked the interviewer.

“It would be like Al Qaeda having chemical weapons,” he continued. “It’s something that is not acceptable to us, not acceptable to the United States and to any peaceable country in the world.

“So I think that this is something we’ll have to act to stop if the need arises,” he said. “And the need might arise if there’s a regime collapse, but not a regime change.”

Syria’s arsenal, he added, is a common concern. “We’d have to see if there was a common action to address that concern,” he said.

AND on Friday we Reported:

U.S. Moving to Recognize Syrian Opposition

In an effort to end the violence in Syria and give legitimacy to the militia groups opposing President Bashar al-Assad, the United States is moving toward recognizing the Syrian opposition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

American officials said Thursday that as soon as the opposition fully develops its political structure, the United States plans on holding a meeting to discuss the issue, which will most likely be announced at the “Friends of Syria” meeting in Morocco on December 12th which will be attended by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

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