By Ted Belman (Feb 13/19)
While most people are patiently waiting for Pres Trump to table his Peace Plan, otherwise known as the Deal of the Century, I have been preparing a Memo to Kushner in which I challenge two points covered in Did Liberman reveal Trump’s peace plan? Yes.
1. Don’t recommend that Gaza become sovereign Palestinian territory. Instead, propose that Gaza be treated as another Area A leaving it to Israel to work together with Egypt and Jordan to find a solution.
2. Do not propose that Palestinians receive “broad economic incentives” in Israel. Instead propose that Israel create economic opportunity for the Palestinians in Jordan.
In my Memo to Kushner, I write,
Gaza
Residents of Gaza should be induced to voluntarily emigrate to Egypt or Jordan or other places, as they choose. Population transfer, as you know, has been resorted to historically, to make peace possible. e.g. in Europe after WW2 and to facilitate the India/Pakistani separation. In this case, we do not propose forced population transfer, but voluntary, supervised and economically encouraged transfer.
Once nearly empty of residents, Israel should be allowed to annex it thereby ending the Gaza problem for ever. Like the West Bank, Gaza was originally part of the Palestine Mandate.
Then I go into detail:
In essence, 300,000 homes/apartments would need to be built in either Jordan or Egypt to house the 1.6 million immigrants from Gaza. Using the latest technologies, this will require an expenditure of $15B in Jordan and much less in Egypt. If this was a 10 year project, the yearly expenditure would be $1.5 B.
These houses could be offered free of charge to emigrants and in addition, the investment would include 21st century infrastructure and employment opportunities, as an inducement to emigrate. Egypt and Jordan can certainly benefit from a $15 B infusion of capital. As further inducement to Egypt, Israel could offer it to share gas from the offshore wells that Israel would then be able to exploit off the Gazan coastline. There are many other ways that Egypt or Jordan could benefit by taking in the Gazans.
Egypt has already started building New Cairo to the south east of Cairo. It is intended to house 6.5 million people. There is a second phase to this development which will house another 8.5 million people. Surely the first phase can accommodate a major portion of the 1.5 million Gazans. In addition, the infusion of $15 billion into the Cairo economy will be of enormous help.
After annexing Gaza, Israel could again develop these lands (as it did in the past, prior to the Disengagement) and reward Jordan and Egypt with a percentage of the profits earned, as per percentage of Gazans taken in. This redevelopment would create thousands of jobs which would be available to the Palestinians.
Judea and Samaria
PM Netanyahu and Min Bennett have been advocating for some time that Israel create more job opportunities for the Palestinians in Area C.
Now it appears that the deal proposes the same thing. We think this is shortsighted.
Rather than create jobs in Israel for the Palestinians, the plan should be to create jobs in Jordan for them.
Israel would be very motivated to build the Jordan economy if it would result in an exodus of Palestinians from the West Bank. A win-win for both sides.
If 1.5 million Palestinians in the West Bank were to emigrate to Jordan, this would require another 300,000 homes. We have done considerable work on where to build these homes and how to fill them.
Palestinians in Israel should be encouraged to emigrate rather than to stay. These homes could be given to them as a partial incentive.
Obviously, were 3 million Palestinians emigrate to Jordan from Gaza and Judea and Samaria, Jordan’s chronic water shortage would be taxed even more.
Water
Jordan is desperately short of water now. An influx of 1.5 to 3.0 million people will require a huge increase of available fresh water. There is some talk about the Red -Dead proposal for generating power and producing fresh water but it is extremely costly.
We have been investigating another proposal to provide Jordanians with sufficient water for their needs.
The current effective consumption of water for household purposes is 210 million CuM per year in Jordan which is just 22 CuM per capita compared to 75-80 CuM per capita in Israel.
In most countries, an average of 60% of expensive treated water is lost through leakage before reaching customers. Jordan’s leakage rate is much higher. “Israel’s leakage rate is lowest in the world, on average 7-8%.” So there is room for considerable improvement.
We propose to build a large desalination plant near Haifa at a cost of about $1.2 B. It would produce about 175 million CuM per year which would be piped to the Kineret and be available to be pumped to Jordan. This coupled with overhauling Jordan’s water system would dramatically increase available water per capita even with an influx of 3 million people.
Currently Jordanians pay 1.04 USD per CuM compared to 0.75 USD paid by Israelis.
The goal would be to provide at least 50 CuM of water per capita for the enlarged Jordanian population and to lower the cost per CuM to approximate what Israelis are currently paying.
But more could be done.
We could overhaul the infrastructure to reduce the leakage. This excess water would be used to irrigate Jordanian agricultural land currently lying fallow and to create grazing land. This land would then be available to Palestinian farmers and Bedouins herders who would love the opportunities presented.
When the Memo is finalized it will be forwarded to Jared Kushner.
Totally aside from this project, I intend to establish a Think Tank that would focus on two things.
1. Incentivizing Arab Emigration and
2. Jewish Aliya.
Wish me luck. If anyone wants to participate or know more, send me an email at tbelman3@gmail.com
Ted Belman Said:
You have stated previously that you receive you information second hand from Mudar who you trust but can not verify.
So in the event he might just be selling you a little bit of inaccurate information or puffed up events the Jordan Option you present may not be real.
Again as I have said previously I hope am I wrong and you are correct but saying the Jordanian Bedouin soldiers are loyal to the USA and not the King does not pass the smell test.
@ yamit82: Perhaps it would clear the air, Yamit, since you have mentioned your recent trip to Jordan, if you did describe the purpose of your visit. Many Israelis now visit Jordan to see the sights (such as Petra, a favorite tourist destination) or to do business with Jordanian businesses. All quite legal in both Israel and Jordan. What private purpose that you may have had for visiting Jordan could be so sensitive as to require secrecy?
Jordanian company refuses to sell sand after discovering it is for gas pipeline with Israel
Video shows officials loading material back onto their trucks after finding out it is to be used in controversial energy scheme
Riots mainly over dire economic conditions parliament unresponsive to the needs of the people yet when they enter into an agreement to reduce the cost of gas they reject the solution because the gas comes from Israel. Every time there is widespread protests over the economy the King changes the government and they can’t mend the situation. Truth is that there is no economic reason for Jordan to exist… They live off the largesse of donors just as the Palis do in the West Bank and Gaza. Must consider that Jordan presently house a million refugees from Iraq and Syria. Wonder how much Jordanians steal from money donated to care for refugees?
Jordan is considered to an important security ally, particularly by the US and Israel, which view any signs of unrest there with concern.
The kingdom has cracked down on suspected militants in recent years, imposing prison terms of several years for suspected sympathisers, including those expressing support for militant ideology on social media.
At the same time, hopelessness and alienation among some of the kingdom’s young people, driven by high youth unemployment, have provided fertile ground for recruitment by militant groups.
Protesters take to the streets, months after similar rallies called for an end to tax reform bill, austerity measures.
@ Ted Belman: An intereting point. I would agree with it, except that you don’t consider the possibility that some of the demonstrations recorded in the video clips shown on Israpundit could have taken place somewhere outside the Jordanian government’s control–such as Ramallah. I have a feeling that Mahmoud Abbas would be happy to allow crowds there to demonstrate against anyone other than himself and his corrupt cronies. Anything to distract his subjects attention away from his corrupt regime.
@ yamit82: All very true.
@ Ted Belman:
Thn you but it’s really nothing much, only logical common sense. And I don’t suffer from the “lemming” syndrome. I believe in fairness.
@ yamit82:
I should recommend that any of my goyisher friends…(not sure have any but)…if I do, I’ll recommend that they go to you for their favourite delicacy tripe, rather than to a butcher. You certainly dish out plenty. You insist that your business is your own affair. So it is. But at the same time you are tormenting another about what should be even more private, being that it is far more important -to us anyway-than your private matters. -and far more dangerous to reveal prematurely..
I seem to be talking as if to a wall, whilst I feel I’m making nothing but good common-sense. Without braggadocio-true or dolled up a bit…Being an Israeli you would have that opportunity far more than others. And Uzis.or similar rapid-fire weapons can cut down a swathe of enemies before they can raise their heads to look…especially if they are using a vehicle for a weapon.
No matter -it’s good to hear this anyway. Also it’s good to get confirmation of my position from the person most involved,and therefore who knows the most about the matter.
As for Felix, I know he’s a dyed -in -the-wool Trotskyist but like your private affairs, he need not justify himself over it. He feels how he feels. .Who am I to dispute it with him, who has spent his life in that study. Regardless of your past disputes, of which I was not a witness,to, but which I can well believe, there is NO reason on this site for crass vulgarity. YOU are the only person so disposed. It’s not necessary, and you know better. The only reason I can give for this is that if you are old , like many other oldsters, you are past caring about your behaviour. But I’m sure I am even older, but still know that I need not behave like that. Anyway it’s against my upbringing and inclinations,.
Felix can well look after himself, his problem is that he is a seriously deep thinker, and that part of him is not understood or appreciated. My opinion anyway. He offends you …or you chose to be offended by him.. He doesn’t offend me, and yet I am not enamoured of Trotsyism..I know little or nothing about it and it has no part in my life..but I also believe in “fair play”, and respect for the deeply felt beliefs of another (except Islamic terrorists)…..No matter; I also believe he’ll return.
He has been looking into and learning about the Irish Jewish Community for several years. He has shown me some old gravestones he unearthed from a long disused Bet Olam. I recognised the names of 2 relatives of many years ago. I doubt strongly that he is Anti-Semitic, nothing I’ve seen him write indicates this, and much indicates the opposite. And a slur like that is mean.
@ Edgar G.:
You have been doing a great job on my behalf.
@ Ted Belman:
Thank you Ted ..I was feeling quite alone in a sea of sharks-and no land in sight…!! Sort of…..
Edgar G. Said:
I can confirm that this is correct. Protesters are calling for the King to abdicate and calling him and his family all kinds of derogatory things. Ever wonder why no one is being shot or killed for this. Instead the protesters are tolerated and, who knows, maybe even abetted.
Edgar G. Said:
Reference about Kushner (yeshiva dropout)
If you are mistaken in this maybe you should reread all of what I have posted on this subject???
I mentioned my Jordan trip to substantiate my first-hand experience and impressions of the Jordanian mindset re Jews and Israel. I owe you no details or other explanations about a private matter it is not relevant and none of your business. I have in the past related personal experiences where I offed 5 Arabs who tried to kill me in Gaza by running me off the road. It’s in Israpundit archives about 5 or 6 years ago,
Not my plan or blog. Ted published what he has published and has said much on social media about his plan and connection with mudar…. Therefore he has invited questions and scrutiny…
The rest about risk and assassinations et al …is being very melodramatic…. I think you read or watch too many spy thrillers. Your imagination seems to be tuned to hyper.
Don’t worry about Felix he will be back.
Felix has been dumping on me for 10 years if not more…He even slandered me in my absence from posting last couple of years at every opportunity, Read many but refrained from replying to him…
You have to understand what Comrade Felix is about… while claiming to be pro Israel and pro Jewish, he is a hardline Commie who believes in perpetual revolution… His hope is for we Jews in Israel to be his tool in advancing his hoped-for revolution through mega war destroying western capitalist civilization and allowing his Commie Cadres to pick up the pieces of what remains and creating a worldwide commie utopia. Like St Paul, he is all things to all people. I posted for you several posts with relative material WRT to the Trotskyite movement around the world and especially in GB and the USA it lays it all out and they are very antisemitic and very anti-Israel. If you read the History of Trotsky you will see he was a monster of mega proportions…
Even so what I have posted to Felix last week was mild compared to the history of our interaction here and he gives out as much as he takes so feeling sorry for him IMO is out of place.
Hey, I even wrote that you were a supporter of him and therefore he needn’t quit the pundit. He is a selective reader so i have no idea if he read it?
yamit82 Said:
That’s why you see no evidence of support.
adamdalgliesh Said:
That’s the way everyone wants it. But increasingly Mudar’s name is being mentioned.
Then there was the WSJ article calling for a potential abdication and quoting Mudar.. I ask you, why is the WSJ wading in?
@ adamdalgliesh:
Adam- It’s really astonishing how sympathetic mental contact with Yamit gives that person uncanny skills ad lb….. I must really congratulate you on your deep insight into American political thinking. That you should be able to know what is inside the heads of the White House movers and shakers, as well as the Pentagon, is not less than marvelous.
Perhaps you are listening so hard to the “beat of the city” and the “waves”, that you can hear things before they are articulated, or even coagulated into thought and action.. That can happen you know…in science fiction stories at any rate. Must be that magic ambit of Yamit, who knows all and can do everything…according to his lengthy harangues, where he explains exactly what you did wrong, and how he would do it right.
Marvellous…. Sycophancy….??… Or “two minds with but a single thought”..as the old song goes.
*****maybe word similarity reminds me, for no other obvious reason, of the drinking man, who came home from the doctor, and triumphantly told his complaining wife, that he was suffering from syncopation….She’d never heard of this ailment so felt she’s been misjudging him unfairly………But she looked it up all the same.
And there it was on a page of the encyclopaedia, explained by a famous musician;
SYNCOPATION; “Irregular movement from bar to bar.”…
This should have been posted a couple of hours ago but I was unable to get through ..something to do with error in base something or other. It seems that Israpundit had a bit of server trouble for a while.
@ yamit82:
I have no intention of answering this torrent of fact, fiction, speculation, personal whimsy, and whatever you have tried to smother my reasoned, polite answer with. You forgot to throw in the kitchen sink.
By the way , Trump was never a Harvard student….. And his father when he was at student age, rich by normal standards had no millions to spare for such nonsense. How is it that you, who know “everything” else In this world, didn’t know that…to the extend of making this egregiously positive, accusatory and pejorative statement…..
Tush….!! A computer wizard like you could have checked in 5 seconds.
I should just answer you in future the way you answered my pertinent questions re your “Jordan trip”…A load of haaaaaaaaaa and a smiling buffoon-like cartoon. As of now I’m much more interested in your Jordan trip than even in Mudar’s plan… which will either happen …or it won’t…. but your Jordan trip did happen (because you definitely averred it), about which you reserve the right to secrecy that you deny others … Hhmm… “some are more equal than others”…. eh? Orwell, it’s arrived.!!.
You admit you are speculating because you don’t want to post what you know (which is no doubt a lot, I don’t deny) …????? But you pressure everyone else to do the opposite….just to gratify your curiosity. Even though Ted would be hunted by assassins if he disclosed what you are pressing to be revealed….
Like a kid wanting to open the present before he welcomes the guest….
I really don’t understand why you pursue like a pack after a fox. Like a “war” in which you HAVE TO demolish any “opponent”… This isn’t that kind of site…At least not so far. Even Felix left -appalled at the dirt thrown at him. I was also more than a bit shocked-it was completely undeserved and uncommonly vulgar at that..
@ adamdalgliesh:
t seems that you and Yamit are “bosom buddies” in this matter. Mazaltov….send me a piece of the cake… MY “fantasy” seems to be that I don’t neccessarly agree with you or Yamit… Although on many things we do think alike. Why you should be explaining Biblical quotations (a la Joshua..Chazak ve’Ematz) to those who know it at least as well as you…I do not know.
Everything I posted has a basis in fact as I see fact. I read it in articles n well established publications. What more do I have to go on…Speculative instincts….NO. on this matter one cannot speculate without being looked on as a fool. So far in a long lifetime I’ve managed to avoid this appellation. Is this the time for it…?
@ yamit82: A Brilliant, realistic analysis, Yamit, based on well-researched and well-documented facts. The claim that a future Jordanian government,, supported by the United States, will solve Israel’s security problems in ludicrous. No one is going to help Israel solve its security problems. Israelis must act themselves to create their own security. The Arab countries will not help us, and any help we receive from the Americans will be very limited and with strings attached. Be strong, be strong, be of good courage, Oh Israel (Joshua’s exhortation to teh Israelites when they began their invasion of the Promised Land.”
@ Edgar G.: All fantasies, Edgar. The USG, throughout the years that I have monitored international politics and diplomacy on a daily basis, which goes back to the 1970s, has alway given public indications when it wants regime change in a foreign country. And when it has hopes that a certain foreign politician or political party will take power in a foreign country, his, or their names appear in official press releases by the White House, DoD, DoS, etc. Usually there are also photo-ops of the favored politician shaking hands with American officials. The United States has never denied it when it seeks regime change, and always gives some public indication of who they hope will replace the government in power. For Example, Bush 43 made it clear he wanted Saddam Hussein out of office for months before he ordered U.S. troops into Iraq. He met publicly with Iraqi opposition leaders, too, and made them honored guests at his State of the Union address, where the press could see and photograph them. When Obama overthrew Hosni Mubarak, for example, he was very public about it. He was also very public about his support for the Muslim Brotherhood, even before Mubarak was deposed. He met with them openly and even made a speech at their university, Al-Azar, before an assembly of pro-brotherhood imams. Mubarak didin’t attend. Both before and after the elections that followed Muberak’s ouster, the State Department made it clear that it supported the Brotherhood’s candidate, Morsi. State and the U.S. Embassy in Cairo publicly announced that they had established “diplomatic contacts on a regular basis” withthe Brotherhood leadership. Brotherhood leaders were repeatedly invited to visit the White House and meet with Obama and his staff,, Photo-ops and all.
I have searched the web sites of the White House, State Department, DoD, and CIA during the present Trump administration. No mention of Mudar Zahran and his organization. No hint that the Trump administration desires regime change in Jordan. The Arab media do report that there is considerable discontent with the Hashemite monarchy inside Jordan. But it has not identified Mudar Zahran or any other individualor organization as the leader of the opposition movement. And it has given no hint that the Jordanian army is planning a coup, or that the Americans have asked it to do this.
All polls indicate a depp hostility to Israel and Jews in general in Jordan. According to Pew surveys, as much as 99 per cent of Jordanians have anti-Israel and antisemitic views.
This is why I regard it as a fantasy that the Jordanian army will stage a coup and put a pro-Israeli politician in power.
Edgar G. Said:
Bull !! reliably reported? by whom? It’s an all Bedouin Army and Intel agency… They have one loyalty aside from their tribe and that is to the Bedouin King (a descendant of Mohamed.) American control??? Haaaaaaaaaaaa
LOL The Bedouin have honor to their own and the Hashemites are their own and are their blood… Arabs may tolerate Americans if there is a benefit for them but they hate Americans only slightly less than they do the Jews.. Bedouins I know intimately. You cannot fathom how much enmity there is between the Bedouin and so-called Palis Arabs and visa versa. I lived among them for 10 years.
Numbers even if speculative would determine if nothing else the efficacy of Ted’s plan who needs three or four or five Palis States?
Haaaa everybody has plans and there are some I have yet to hear about but IMO we don’t need plans, they all stink and all if implemented will fail and we will be worse off. I asked and never received an answer “why do we need a plan and what is the urgency right now? Israel should not be proactive in this area… Conditions on the ground will inevitably dictate our moves Over 90% of the West Bank economy is tethered to Israel including their currency. We could shut the whole show down in 3 -4 weeks if we wanted to, and squeeze them so hard most would eventually leave especially the educated and the young…They, in turn, would then send for families left behind… If they want a state have them declare one on of areas they now control. If they attack Israel then we would react as a state to state.
LOL….I dropped out of this debate well over a year ago and stayed out of getting involved and I still won’t in deference to Ted and I won’t inject in this conversation what i have learned so my comments are more academic in that I ask quetions and give generally my take based only on what I know and what my own personal experience has taught me. If you are confident it’s good for Israel and is based on valid information then I hope you are right but based on what I do know I oppose.
Beg to differ here…. You need Egypt to deal with Gaza Arabs and you need the Saudis to pay… Jordan like Egypt is kept alive mainly with Saudi money.
Who told you that Israli public interest is at fever pitch? Matter of fact it’s not even on the radar of my Israelis and according to all polls most Israelis are against getting involved in more Peace initiatives and have no belief in them anymore and or that the Palis are both intersested or a reliable future partner. Peace index here is over 70% negative. Most Israelis no longer are willing to give up anything for an agreement with the Palis. Google latest polls.
Not scurrilous I question their Hubris their arrogance including Trump who believe a failed yeshiva dropout and who had his father donate millions to harvard to get him in and could be considered a failed developer by paying too much for Park ave property that could bankrupt him if not his family business… and two Jewish lawyers who have no obvious qualifications except their close relationship with Trump who announced just after announcing his candidacy that he believes he could succeed where all others before him had failed in making the peace deal between Israel and the Palis. WHAT ARROGANCE!! Then he blamed Israel for all the previous failures, then he claime BB doesn’t really want a peace deal several times in different forums.
I do, more than passing interest and it’s not only important, it’s critical for success or failure of Ted’s plan.
I gave you more credit than such a silly response.
Policies differ from methods. Working is good, though no work plausibly makes an average person a billionaire; work is a method, enrichment is a policy. Methods are useful in themselves while policies serve external goals. Methods can be described as derivative of policies, or as very short-term policies. Occupying Iraq with the aim of making it democratic is a policy, which is wrong; a punishing raid with the immediate aim of removing Saddam is a method, which is right. Method is a historically standard modus operandi: countries attack when threatened, punish offenders when they can, and secure their own habitat. Almost everyone agree on methods: both Jews and Arabs believe that offenders must be punished; punishment is a method. Methods have only immediate goals. Methods rely on very short actions and are unlikely to create Bradbury’s Butterfly Effect of unforeseeable remote consequences. Most often, methods reinstate or secure status quo ante. Less frequently, methods prevent unforeseeable developments: Mid-term economic planning proved a communist failure, but democratic states plan something incredibly more complex than economy—human societies. Any peace process or initiative will invariably fail. The only solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict is to stop seeking a solution.
All of the above 🙂
@ yamit82:
Your typical answer typically vastly overstates the matter. Your constant tactic is to flood the page with a torrent of facts, metaphors,aphorisms, failed attempts, slanted history, and doom warnings.
I can make no attempt to fully answer this “40 days and nights flood”. I’d need two computers, or at least a splt screen, neither of which I have, or could produce.. But I can pick out some of the major points by tiresomely scrolling up to your post and back down again many times, (depending on how fed up I get)
1) How loyal the Jordanian troops are to the Hashemites is an unknown quantity. THey have been reliably reported as havng been under American control for the past few years. The same with their brilliant intelligence complex.
2) Perhaps their loyalty is, that they’ll safely see them onto the plane which will waft them away to their mansions abroad…all arranged by the US commanders.
3) By asking me how many Arabs would be staying according to Ted’s plan imputes knowledge of the Plan which I don’t have..and don’t want to. Your overactive imagination can supply the answer… 50 answers, all different…..!!
4) I don’t know how much confidence Ted has in this Plan; as for me, it’s well known that I have hopes… and KNOW it’s the best plan of all produced over very many years.
5) If I had “evidence to the contrary” ..-meaning another one of your impossible demands- I certainly WOULD NOT publicise it over an open forum.. Have some common -sense man. !!
6) Your “poor-mouth” remark about Israel having no money… in fact indicating insolvency, is just a load of crap. Israel always has money for important needs, particularly those where a very major national interest is involved. Likely also, a group of Jewish Blliionaires like Sheldon Adelson -for example-would willingly fork over, to be regarded as THE MAN who freed Eretz Yisrael from Arab occupiers. His name would be prayed over for ever, and history would ensconce him as a hero in perpetua. And, as I said there are others. I haven’t yes mentioned the US government who would likely heavily contribute..IN MY OPINION….
7) You’d have to ask Egypt and Saudia “what’s in it for them”……they would not be major players in a fait accomplit coup.
8) Not being au fait with Ted;’s plans I have no idea as to why he thinks that this matter should be accomplished at this particular time. My opinion is that with Israeli public interest at fever pitch, this is THE TIME, and the kinglet (Ali Baba as the Arabs call him, referring to him being a thief) is at his weakest, with less support than at any other time.
9) Your scurrilous remarks about the Americans all being “Real Estaters” is an under the belt attempt to denigrate their wholly gratuitous attempt to acheve genuine settlement of the intractable Arab-Jew eternal war. It wll always be “eternal” but can be controlled.
10) I am not an economist and no expert on Jordanian production nor their international markets….. apparently YOU are…. and already have the answers.
11) There is no point in talking to me about the failed states of our surrounding Arab countries, (implying it might lead to them attack Israel). Israel has lived safe and secure thorough her own heroic efforts, through worse turmoil in the adjoining countries…so beyond that, I leave YOU with the problem to scratch your head over.
12) As for the rest of what you say, there’s a great deal of truth in it but I fail to see how it affects this present situation, except perhaps as a possibility in a minor scale. Yes BISMARK was a great Statesman and his policies eventually, and unintentionally, led to 2 World Wars. Perhaps it was the leaders and atmosphere of those times which were actually the culprits… After all, Bismark was not all bad…he introduced the 65 year age retirement, with pension plan… Metternich was also an equally great statesman, as was Tallyrand…. History is full of them…. Belsarius and Hannibal were equally as great, and also in War. Napoleon Buonaparte was even greater… But generally failure eventually follows after successes. We seem to live in a cyclical world. Up and down, in and out, what can we do about it…..Stop the world from revolving….like Joshua…..
Phew…I’m tired. I have to revert now to my bottle of ……..you’ve driven me to drink….But I’ve made SOME attempt to answer you. It’s not n my nature to leave aggressive posts unanswered. And it’s entertaining…for a while….
*******By the way…a VERY minor point from your way of thinking I’d imagine. You mention having been in Jordan last year…WE DIDN’T SEE ANY REPORTS OF THIS in any news outlet….Did you sneak in,… or were you part of an official Israeli Government Delegation….. or were you doing a bit of smuggling-on the side….( I hear they do a big business in hasheesh-just asking…??) ???********
This is somewhat the same sort of question that you have been haranguing Ted (and to a minor extent me) with, so please a truthful, fully detailed answer, including the terms of any deals, official agreements, or differences.. FULL disclosure……!!
@ yamit82:
I also have an answer for you. TED dIdn’t say it….I DID…. Don’t gat soch exitement..!!
@ Ted Belman:
Hope you are right , Ted!
Obviously I have a bit of skepticism on the subject!
Bear Klein Said:
Nonsense. We know what we are doing and will succeed.
@ yamit82:
The paragraph you wrote makes sense to me and seems to be correct.
Jordan being or becoming Palestine would take much of the international political pressure off of Israel. Jordan changing regimes could likely end up with Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood controlling parts or all of Jordan which would end the peace treaty which has provided security to Israel, though not a US – Canadian type neighborhood to say the least.
There is no peace process. Nor will there be.
When Mudar takes over he will name Jordan Palestine, ergo the two state solution. And both countries have a peace agreement.
No need for a process. The PA are irrelevant. UNRWA is finished.
My deal with Mudar is that he reaffirm the Jordanian citizenship for all Palestinians and keep an open door policy for them to emigrate to Jordan. Its Israel’s job to induce emigration.
@ yamit82:
Thanks for you thought full response. Obviously we can’t guarantee that the coup will be bloodless. But I can tell you that increasingly Mudar’s name is being mentioned and he has a big role in bringing the Palestinians on to the streets. The protests will continue to grow.
The MB is not participating. Other groups are. The dominant demand is that the monarchy go.
I can’t tell you more.
Ted Belman Said:
WOW, I got a message for you: No Arab Gov will gain acceptance and legitimacy of its people if it’s ascendency to power was imposed, propped up and overtly supported by Israel, America or in fact any outside force. Today Jordan while not an ideal neighbor maintains and gives Israel a degree of stability on our Eastern flank…. Israel still maintains good security coordination with the Jordanians. I see no Israeli interest in risking the current status quo. If things change then we would need to reassess and act accordingly. You don’t try to fix that which for the most part is not broken… Every time in the past when Israel has tried to manipulate political structures in the Arab world it has not only been successful but backfired to our detriment. An example was Lebanon.
Israelis have long ago refrained from visiting Egypt and you won’t find many in Jordan except for Petra. They are not Israel friendly venues.
Before Arafat I used to shop in Gaza city Rafa and Kan Yunis daily. Ate in their restaurants, employed many from those locations over the years, Had my car serviced there etc. I did much of my reserve service there as well.
Since Arafat, they and the Arabs on the West Bank have become radicalized and while they never loved us but they had greater prosperity than any Arab in the ME and the IDF insured that terror never got to raise their heads… Sharon brutally put a stop to any threat and it was Sharon who fenced Gaza in.
There is no way to turn the clock back today 40-50 years of radical indoctrination has done its job well. Do you believe that this indoctrination will not be internalized in any regime replacing the Hashemites?
@ Edgar G.:
Under Ted’s plan how many Arabs get to stay under the sovereignty or control of Israel in the West Bank and Gaza? 5% 10%… more?
No bloodless coup has ever been effected to my knowledge in any Arab country without the military and security establishment on board or is in most cases the ones affecting the coup. Even if part of the Jordanian military remains loyal to the king then it won’t be a bloodless coup and how can you or Ted have confidence in the outcome?
In all of the demonstrations we have seen in Jordan has the name Mudar been echoed? Does anyone even know his name in Jordan or the West Bank? It’s an open secret that many of the public demonstrations in Jordan are radical MB, ISIS and other offshoot Islamic groups inspired not attributed to Mudar as far as I am able to determine. Do you have evidence to the contrary?
The Jordanians are not stupid and their Intel is very good. If Mudar was a real threat he would be dead already. I would not be surprised if some even read Israpundit and other forums where Ted has published his plan.
Doesn’t matter if the plan on offer by Ted is cheaper than other plans there is no money in Israel nor the popular or political will to be a major funder…We have too many uses for any available funds here at home like funding more planes and subs to name only 2. With over 20% of Israelis living under the poverty line and young couples unable to afford decent housing, funding Arabs new homes will go over like a lead brick here.
Why would Egypt and the main benefactor of Jordan the Saudis agree with this Plan? What’s in it for them?
Hamas is the most popular entity in the West Bank at the moment and why would they not be as popular in any regime replacing the Hashemites in Jordan?
There is no way that Jordan can be an economically viable state currently and even especially with an influx of millions of deadbeat Palestinians and useless refugees from outside in neighboring countries. Even Abbas doesn’t want them. Most would be criminally disruptive and a drain on resources, Infrastructure and arable land and water…. No way Jose!! There is no industrial base or self-sustaining agriculture for the population already in Jordan. The population is undereducated with too many illiterates and no work ethic to change the existing condition of Jordan or Jordan Palestine. It is a recipe for a failed state, even more than now exists…. That opens the door to the most radical Islamist groups to topple the newly formed gov. even if they survive that long.
I was in Jordan last year and believe me most Jordanians hate us no less than the Egyptians maybe even more.
Ted has not explained since I have known him why a Peace agreement or paper solution to the conflict between us and them is so critical and especially at this time…. We would not reduce our military expenditures and probably need to increase them substantially in the 1 in a million chance the plan materializes. We can live with the status quo for another hundred or even 400 years and we lose many more Israelis to auto accidents than to Arab terror…. A settlement made more sense 70 years ago and 50 years ago but today what the hell is the urgency? Every Arab and Islamic state can be considered as a failed state none are economically viable except the Gulf states and even the Saudis are feeling an economic pinch and have much more competition even without the Iranians, More product than buyers and this will be true in the foreseeable future especially if there is a global recession….In such a case do not look for much international help wrt financing major reconstruction projects like Syria or Jordan. The gov of Egypt under the leadership of Al-Sissi will fail economically and has not improved the conditions in Egypt since the coup so his days are numbered.
A-I don’t believe in the word or promise of any Arab
B- I don’t trust Trump or America….Look at history!
C- All of those involved in the American plan are court Jews and all heavily involved in real estate …. We are not a real estate deal.
I have written several times how to get rid of the Arabs over time without the need for either force or concessions by Israel but it would take a consensus of our political establishment but so does Ted’s plan.
Mapai knew how to get rid of the Arabs in much the same way I now advocate.
D- “Bradbury Butterfly Effect” or “The Law Of Unintended Consequences”
The Best plan is to do nothing….No plan in history has ever worked out the way it was intended. Some created much worse problems as a result.
E- Policies/plans are predominantly wrong because any given position in the complex adaptive system has myriad options, and any one option is likely not to be the best option. Complex adaptive systems resist policies, but develop through painfully long series of micro-moves. At every stage, the situation changes and requires adaptive response. Policies, on the other hand, tend to be fixed and self-perpetuating; otherwise, they are derogatorily called ad hoc solutions and don’t amount to policies.
It follows that whatever a government does, it likely does wrong. Bismarck weaved the most excellent policies, but they laid the foundation for two world wars. The League of Nations was a great idea, but it legalized the inaction which allowed Germany to re-arm. Partitioning states to satisfy both political camps seemed a viable strategy, but partitioned Vietnam fought a bloody war, and other cases proved equally unsustainable. Bleeding the communists in Afghanistan was a nice thing to do, but the aid to the mujahedeen created the Islamic terrorist threat. It is not an overgeneralization to say that all policies are wrong. There are no examples of fruitful policies under heaven.
European settlers massacred Indians so that no significant minority would be left to claim their ancestral lands.
How absurd it is to imagine a lion that enters a camp of gazelles to teach them manners, self-defense, or agriculture. No, lions are satisfied with the immediate goal of satiation—if at the gazelle’s expense.
The peace process is similar. Israel has tried rejecting the Palestinians’ demands, acceding to them, and every option in between. Nothing has worked—because policies never work. The Middle East’s ecosystem is a textbook example of a complex adaptive system. Any policy would be wrong here. Who could honestly have predicted that Arafat would refuse the statehood Barak gave him on silver plate? Who knew Nasser’s mind in 1967, when he wanted to attack Israel? There are myriad inherently unknown variables in the peace process equation. If Israeli Arabs are loyal, that calls for one solution; if they are not, the solution must be entirely different. If Palestinian Arabs want to live in peace with Israel, that’s one situation; if Gaza’s refugees would never accept a Jewish state, that’s a totally different situation. Would Egypt pursue a hostile peace with Israel, or would its Muslim radicals come to power and opt for war?
The peace process will invariably fail. The only solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict is to stop seeking a solution. Jews settled in the Middle East’s equivalent of inner-city slums. Former residents can be sent to jails (or refugee camps) but they will keep coming back. If Jews lack the resolve for the biblically mandated solution, the only alternative is enduring a smoldering conflict for centuries. That’s completely acceptable.
As I said above many more Israelis are killed in car accidents than in terrorist attacks.
@ Edgar G.:
Amen.
@ yamit82:
Yamit…!! You are WRONG in at least one point with which you open your post. The cost, according to TED’S plan is picayune compared to the cost say, of Martin Sherman’s Plan. (200-250 billion)… far less than a 10th of it in fact. And assuming that it did come about, you are again wrong in asserting that Israel would not gladly, happily, ecstatically pay for it with no grousing. It’s cheap at any price, to get rid of the Arabs.
You actually know all this, yet you make a contrary statement just to make up an argument, or gain “brownie points” from those less observant of the figures. Shame….
Ted doesn’t need to answer this –I can easily do it… If Mudar CAN take over..why should he HAVE to do it “without our help”…Why are YOU putting conditions on HIM…? Israel’s and America’s help have been tacitly understood to be needed, from the beginning. and you KNOW this. It’s been posted here at least 5-6 times by me alone..And agreed with by others. I’m sure you’ve read all this yourself. Your ignoring this sounds like “mischief” to me.
Of course you have a very well developed sense of humour which you partly conceal in cynical remarks, and then sit back to watch the reactions……like mine…… That’s
O K by me……
Of all people, YOU should know that it’s a most serious matter to engineer a bloodless regime take-over Why the HELL should you insist on the details being blazoned all over the scenery, just to satisfy your fancies. If the Jordanian regime knew what Ted knows, they’d be sending out “hit-men”…. So PLEASE slow down….
And Biblical Quotations will have NO effect on International political policies.
Report: US plan has Palestinian state in most of West Bank, E. Jerusalem capital
Report: US plan has Palestinian state in most of West Bank, E. Jerusalem capital
White House dismisses Israeli report on ostensible US peace proposal — which also details fate of settlements, but not of Gaza or refugees — as unfounded speculation
@ yamit82: Yes, relevant Biblical quotations. God knows (literally) that its tough world out there. You can’t expect neighbors to be nice to you, even if you make nice to them.
There are at least two sociologists who have written about the “concentric rings” of loyalty in Arab culture. The only true loyalties are to tribe, clan, or extended family. This is an extremely “territorial” loyalty. The tribe or clan claims a certain area of land for itself, but will not let anyone else, not even fellow Arabs or fellow Muslims, live on their turf, except perhaps as slaves. “Concentric rings” of loyalty may extend to a nation-state or a larger ethnic-religious grouping (such as Suni or Shiite Arabs). But this extended loyalty only extends to support for them in a conflict with people regarded as “the other,” such as non-Muslims, or perhaps non-Arab Muslims such as Kurds. THe Arab will support people who are considered relatively close to them ethnically and religiously against groups that are considered entirely “foreign,” and outside the pale of any feelings of solidarity, such as Jews or Western Christians. But their loyalty to other Arabs or Muslims does not extend to a willingness to share one’s land with them, if they do not belong to your tribe or clan. This explains why Saudi Arabia expelled two million people it classified as Yemenis, even though most were born in Saudi Arabia, because they were not descended from the “original” tribes of what became the Saudi kingdom who were settled in this territory as of 1903. All future “immigrants are “foreigner, even if three or four generation residents, with no rights to the land. The Arab states apply the same reasoning to the Palestinians; they will support them to the hilt in a war with the Jews, but they will never welcome them as citizens or permanent residents of the Arab countries, with full citizenship rights. They do not belong to any of the tribes or clans that were established in the Arab countries as of 1947-48, when the Palestinian ‘exodus” or “diaspora” began.
@ yamit82:All valid points
Futuristic Map Based on the Torah
“To your descendants I have given this land, from the Egyptian River as far as the great river, the Euphrates.”
Bereshit (Genesis) 15:18
Maps
“‘Beware of what I command you Today: Behold, I will drive out before you the Amorite, the Canaanite, the Hittite, the Perizzite, the Hivvite, and the Jebusite. Be vigilant not to seal a covenant with the inhabitants of the Land to which you are coming, since they will be a fatal trap for you.'” (Exodus 34:11-12)
“HaShem spoke to Moses in the plains of Moab, by the Jordan [River], at Jericho, saying, ‘Speak to the Children of Israel and say to them, “When you cross the Jordan [River] to the Land of Canaan, you shall drive out all the inhabitants of the Land from before you; and you shall destroy all their prostration stones; all their molten images shall you destroy; and all their high places shall you demolish. You shall possess the Land, and you shall settle in it; for, to you have I given the Land to possess it. … But if you do not drive out the inhabitants of the Land from before you, those of them whom you leave shall be pins in your eyes and thorns in your sides, and they will harass you upon the Land in which you dwell. And it shall be that what I had meant to do to them, I shall do to you.”‘” (Numbers 33:50-56)
“They [Children of Israel] provoked Me with a non-god, angered Me with their vanities; so shall I provoke them with a non-people, with a vile nation shall I anger them.” (Deuteronomy 32:21)
@ Ted Belman:
Who is going to pay for all your grandiose and very expensive plans??? Don’t think Israelis will be willing or able to foot the bill nor should we.
Who needs a piece plan?
Let’s see first your Mudar Zahran.Guy take over power in Jordan without our help
Can you or Mudar confirm with real evidence that the Jordanian Army (Bedouin) and Jordanian security establishment will support Mudar? Jordanian Beduin? Palestinian Jordanians? Westbank Palestinians? Gazans’?
Since it appears you have placed all your eggs in one basket (Mudar & Trump) I would like to see some real evidence that he has widespread support in the groups I mentioned above.
Ted, you have never given us any specifics about what you have accomplished so far, or what your sources of information are about these accomplishments. No names, no dates, no photo ops, no quotations from people in high office to back up your claims that your man is about to come into power in Jordan. Or that he will accomplish all the miracles that you say he will. It is always just “trust me.”
I have searched the web sites of several U.S. government agencies, and several several U.S. web sites that monitor U.S. foreign policy, without finding any references in either of them to Mudar Zahran. I also searched the data bases of three Israeli web sites that regularly monitor events in the Middle East, including Jordan. All three are staffed by people with backgrounds in Israeli intelligence. Only a handful of references to Mr. Zahran are to be found in the files of these sites, and none at all that he is likely to take power in Jordan.
It isn’t reasonable to expect us to take all this purely on trust without providing us with substantive evidence to back up your claims.
No, I don’t think you are lying. I am sure you believe every word you say. But you are like a hasid who believes everything his rebbe tells him, and would believe his rebbe even if he told his followers that the sun rises in the west, because his rabbi is a “gadol.” Or like the hasidim who are absolutely certain that the Moshiach will come within a week, and then when a week passes without any evidence of this, assume they were just one week off. Several of these people are part of my personal “crowd;” I never for a moment doubt their integrity, But I think they are living in a world of pleasant fantasies and wish fulfillment.
@ adamdalgliesh:
How can you call it a fantasy when you know knowing about what we have accomplished so far?
Do you think I am misrepresenting the facts or worse, lying?
Why do you think I keep making reference to the Jordan Option for no good reason?
Ted, all fantasies based on the belief that the Arabs will help to solve the Palesestinian problem through resettlement. The Arabs will never do this because they wish to preserve the Palestinian problem to advance their long-term goal of getting rid of Israel. The allegedly homeless and impoverished Palestinians provide the Arab world with the rationale for continuing the conflict. The Arabs are not intereted in helping Israel-not the Egyptians, not the Jordanians. THey may work with Israel address mutual security threats, like Iran or even Hamas. But they won’t help free Israel of the Palestinians.
The only circumstance in which the Arabs would agree to resettle the Palestinians would be if Issrael walloped them so severely in a war, with at least the passive cooperation of the great powers, that they had no choice but to submit at gunpoint. This is unlikely to happen in the near future. It might happen someday if Israel can survive many years of blood and s—t under the bridge.
Edgar G. Said:
I agree the gas legally belongs to Israel and no sane country gives away vital natural resources to anyone especially enemies and yes Egypt is an enemy that may have some mutual interests at this time with Israel but those interest can change on a dime and cannot be relied up except from day to day and under clear thinking politically…..
I still maintain that long term Egypt is our most dangerous existential threat and we have fought 5 wars with Egypt since ’48. Iran 0 wars. Egypt also has a well-developed Nuke program as well as a highly developed chemical and biowarfare infrastructure. Large modern American supplied and trained military and have no existential enemy to justify the size and expense of their military.
We need at least two more combat divisions along the Egyptian border and the election of MB Morsi should have caused Israel to draw the proper conclusions. The scare was short lived with the coup of Egyptian military but that regime’s days are numbered because the economy of Egypt is impossible to fix and is getting worse by the year. The MB will be back in the saddle sooner than later.
Israel already provides hundreds of millions of liters of water yearly from the Kinneret much above the amt. agreed upon in the peace agreement with Jordan. The Israeli taxpayer foots the bill with not only with higher consumer water tariffs but agriculture suffers as does the environment in general.
We owe the jordanians nothing (zip. nada). Let them starve and go thirsty and many will leave for other parts thereby making jordan inhospitable and depopulated. It will topple the monarchy leading to violent attacks against Israel from Jordan. That would give Israel a green light to invade Jordan and drive the population into Iraq….. From the Nile to the Euphrates then might not seem so much like a myth Haaaaa
Jewish proverb “Rejoice not at thine enemy’s fall – but don’t rush to pick him up either …”
I Rejoice as well LOL
Most of the refugees and descendants in Gaza originate from Israel within the so-called Green line….. They are not the same blood as the Arabs in Gaza with Egyptian origins and there is no love lost between them. The refugees are the same ones always pictured with keys to their long non-existent homes in Israel. They are the most radical and all consider Israel an enemy and all wish to return to their lost homes in Israel.
Thousands of Gazans find ways of emigrating from Gaza each year without help from Jews and tens of thousands would find their own ways of leaving each year if Israel ceases to support them with vital help and basic sustenance. Stop feeding them and like all animals, they will seek greener pastures and sources for their own survival. Those that leave and have left already will send for family members once they get settled wherever they wind up… within 10-20 years we would have a mostly depopulated Gaza…
Egyptians Hate Palis Gazans even more than they do Jews and Israel… The Arab Palestinians hate the Gazans and Gazans hate the West Bank so-called Palestinians and all hate the Palis refugees in so-called Camps in Lebanon and Syria. Anyone thinking they can solve any conflict in the ME is a utopian fool.
@ Ted Belman:
Good.! I was thinking of that when I posted, but was not sure that was what you meant. They are doing a lot of that these days. read some time ago that they had put up a 9 storey building in 5 days, in Australia. Built around a sold concrete core.
Anton Weber is noted for this kind of work,.
@ Edgar G.:
We are planning on stacking them so that they are part of a housing complex of 5 stories high. They have already been designed as such.
@ Ted Belman:
I neglected your remark about the $20,000 prefabs. I assume that they will be single family dwellings on their own foundations, which will be part of the cost. My understanding of the Jordanian and Egyptian homes, was that they would be apartments and therefore actually rather more expensive that those of your friend, assuming the inclusion of the foundations… which are a large part of the cost. Also each would have it’s own roof unlike apartment block homes.
It means far more land required, and the lengthened utilities and other services-like roads- would naturally be at greater cost. But Jordan has lots of space..78% of the British Mandate (for Jews-supposedly)
@ Ted Belman:
I recall more than once I read that a Gaza family called El-Musri said that HE himself had counted over 35 different unconnected families in Gaza with the same El-Musr or Musri name.
@ Edgar G.:
According to our research about 25% of the Gazans are Egyptians and they would want to go back there.
An Israeli friend of mine is able to build prefabricated homes at a cost of $20,000 per home.
Egypt has to be persuaded to take in the refugees. They represent a threat to Egypt. So we are looking for ways to reward them for doing so.
Mudar is happy to take in the bedouin. That’s why are researching how we can increase both agricultural land and grazing land.
Essentially we are in agreement.
TED- I don’t want to clutter up your private email inbox. A few suggesitons… which you may already have taken into account, but were not mentioned in the above article.
1)…EMPHASIZE that the “Gazans” are largely Egyptian, and came from there. in recent historical memory. Their roots are there, and THERE is where they should go. Repatriated..
2) the 15 Billion for Jordanian housing…… (thoroughly examined during a deep discussion here last year) Jordanian family apts. cost $40,000 each, and Egyptian equivalents $22,000 each. SO the arithmetic can be slightly revised. In quantity, they might cost less in both countries.
3) I am against offering the benefits of Gaza gas to Egypt . It belongs to Israel’s real estate, and the fewer “claims” in perpetua,,,,that naturally antagonistic others with “rights” to mulct Israel, the better. Besides, this is a game where all major cards are not laid on the table beforehand. I’m sure you’ve taken that into account, but just a reminder.
4) Some way to include the Bedouin, who are completely out of control of the flaccid hands of Israel authorities. They are taking over the country, and are not pro-Israel. The suggested (endless) new grazing lands in Jordan might be an inducement.
I hope at least a word or two may be helpful.
@ Michael S:
…ditto for any other concessions by Israel…
If Israel pumps fresh water into the Dead Sea, will it become the “Grateful Dead” Sea? I doubt it.