Eldad is right on in his assessment but is wrong to say “Israel should be prepared for the day after the king is deposed.”. Israel must get involved today and work to make certain that when the King abdicates, that forces favourable to Israel will come to power.Ted Belman
The world’s attention, and Israel’s as well, is riveted on Syria. Media outlets and analysts are having a field day with a plethora of stories: The massacre of civilians, Bashar and Asma al-Assad’s shopping sprees, the cynical politics of Russia and China, the West’s refusal to intervene militarily or extend economic or military assistance, and the benefits that would accrue to Israel and the West of an end to the Syrian-Iranian axis, along with the fear of massive amounts of arms reaching Hizbullah.
Meanwhile, in Jordan, dramatic events are quietly occurring under the radar of the world’s media. The Hashemite regime is in trouble, and not only because the Palestinians, who comprise 70-80 percent of Jordan’s population, are waiting for an opportunity to join the “Arab Spring” and throw off the yoke of autocratic rule in order to enjoy true democracy. The Beduin are the traditional power base of the royal family, especially the Beduin of the cities of Karak and Salt, and they too are threatening to revolt, and for the first time calling to overthrow the monarchy.
King Abdullah understands that his turn will come after Assad’s. Perhaps this is why he has prevented the Saudis from transferring arms to the Syrian rebels via Jordan. Al-Jazeera reported that five Palestinians have been arrested and charged with attempting to undermine Hashemite rule. Undoubtedly many arrests have not been brought to the attention of Al-Jazeera.
A Palestinian blogger who dared criticize the monarchy was stabbed and seriously wounded. The monarchy has tried to insinuate the attack stemmed from “immoral behavior” on her part but demonstrations swept through the local refugee camps, where angry Palestinians are sure the government tried to silence her.
Compared to what is happening in Syria, this really is not much of a news story. But compared to what was happening in Jordan even just one year ago, it is the equivalent of an earthquake.
Abdullah is no Assad, and the Jordanians know he will not massacre his own citizens; when the riots begin, he is more likely to flee to London. (The Palestinians do fear a civil war in which the armed-to-the-teeth Beduin minority tries to defeat the unarmed Palestinian majority which is unprepared for battle.) A growing number of Palestinians see this as their big chance. An independent Palestinian state in Jordan is within reach. Many will not make do with that, they view it as a first stage in the establishment of a “Greater Palestine” stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Saudi desert. Yet the number of voices in Jordan and in the Palestinian- Jordanian community abroad, mostly in London, calling to adopt a “Jordan is Palestine” plan is steadily increasing.
They see it as a way out of the dead end in which the Palestinians are trapped. They understand that faced with the Palestinian Authority’s internal problems and the never-ending postponement of local elections, along with the ever-present and openly stated threat to dismantle the Authority – they are not likely to establish a Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria and Gaza with its capital in Jerusalem.
In Israel, even the Hashemite monarchy’s greatest supporters and even those who view Jordan as a strategic asset for Israel know a regime change there may bring an anti-Israel government to power. Historically, Israel’s alliance with the Hashemites rested on the mutual knowledge that the Palestinians were the dangerous enemy of both. When the circumstances change, our strategy will have to change, too.
Israel should be prepared for the day after the king is deposed. If we do not, but just sit on the sidelines and watch, Jordan may become another “Hamastan” taking up arms in the unsolved Arab-Israeli conflict. Only if Israel readies itself for the day a Palestinian state is established in Jordan will we be able to adapt to the change and turn it into an opportunity for all the sides involved.
The writer is a member of Israel’s Knesset for the National Union party.
@ Jordanian:
As I recall, there were quite a few MORE than just a “very few” (Fatah, PFLP, DFLP, etc) who fled across the River to escape the Jordanian military forces after the attempt on Hussein’s life — Sept. 1, 1970, on the way to Amman airport — brought on the Black September crackdown of 2 weeks later, as well as a series of comparable incidents over the following year.
Those who made it across the River were, in most cases, permitted by IDF troops to continue to the heartland [“west bank”] provinces.
A lot of those who didn’t escape, or die in combat, died in Jordanian prisons — under torture.
And by “torture,” I don’t mean “water-boarding” — I mean torture.
@ bernard ross:
strong>The Israel Restraint Forces
by Dr. Israel Eldad
Sulam #19 (1951)
Read more:
@ BB Melman:
BB Melman Said:
I agree that I was impolite.
I don’t agree that it was not appropriate.
Jordan is not Palestine anymore than is Gaza or Y&S. It is occupied by Arabs temporarily. In the interim the residents can call themselves whatever they choose. The Name is for us inconsequential. That there are Arabs that don’t like their little King and his big family is nothing new. Most Arabs hate Bedouins especially those who rule over non Bedouins. They are the ME version of European Gypsies. I have lived with Arabs long enough to know that there will never be a peaceful accommodation with them.
I have had second thoughts about Jordan as Palestine and I believe it is not in our national interest for it to become a Pali State and for the time being the Monarchy is the best we got. We do need to Transfer our Arab citizen and those in Y&S away but not to Jordan. Anywhere else is preferable. The value of Jordan as it is to us is that we protect and guarantee the monarchy from outside threats so they are dependent on us and they in turn acting as a buffer become an asset. A Pali state in Jordan would become an existential potential threat to us as Jordan has a small but well trained American and British equipped military including an air-force. They can make treaties with anyone they choose like Iran, Egypt, Russia and China etc. The best thing for us is disunity in the countries bordering Israel.
I think one of the reasons we are hearing Pali discontent with the monarchy is that like Israel Jordan has a lot of shale oil; Shell is doing the exploration and building a pilot plant. The Palis smell money and know the monarchy won’t share.
Although I like history, history tails are often formulated in a tricky way. Each party has his own tail of history which i believe that is rarely accurate or at least does not tells the whole story from all aspects and perspectives. However, history tails explain a historical position made by one party. that’s fine, but I don’t think it is important to explain early positions. I believe we need to find a human solution for us all now and in future. Therefore, I would like to emphasis about few facts about current situation:
1- There is absolutely no seriousness in the willingness of the elimination of Israel at least by Arabs. Although we have no freedom of speech, we are free to speech openly and loudly about the necessary of the elimination of your country. This is promoted by the dictators and the rules of the Arabic world to show you that their people are monsters and the existence of these dictators will guarantee your safety.
2- Almost all Palestinians (refugees in Jordan) has no intention to return where they or their grand parents come from 40 or 60 years ago. There are very few cases who where desperate of the situation in Jordan and moved to settle in the west bank (back home as they though). but they were surprised that they were always treated as foreigners and felt so while never did feel foreigners before they moved to the WB. The slogan of ‘the right to return’ is also promoted by the regimes and their instruments and Arab dictators in order to find for themselves a role or to benefit financially.
3- In the past 10 years, a lot of life obstacles and financial restrictions were put on the Jordanians with Palestinian origins in order to transform them into a real thread to Israel. This was practiced by the regime in Jordan to further justify their importance and to make trade.
4- Regarding the attitude to Israel, people are just unhappy with the treaty not because it is a treaty but because of the content of the treaty. For example, Jordan has serious water problems and everyone is aware how the treaty legitimatized the unfair distribution of water. People want to be part of this partnership and to be dictated to them by their dictator, which draws a real peace between Jordan and Israel which is easily extended to the other neighbors of Israel.
You should establish the dialogue with the people of the region by their real representative in order to establish strong security and eliminate your fear from Arabs. So, Jordan is Palestine!!! don’t be fouled and pay a penny on that, simply because Jordan is really Palestine right now. All you need to do is just promote equality and democracy in Jordan.
Jordanian Said:
this is a good indication of the best that Israel could expect from the “palestinians” east of the river. There is no mention that Jordans occupation of 77% of the former palestine mandate territory, and its JEW FREE creation and maintenance, defacto makes it the JEW FREE “palestinians” state. It makes no mention that the transfer of jews from the arab nations resulting from the 48 war is a precedent for the transfer of muslims from the remaining 23% west of the river. It fails to mention that the JEW FREE status of all areas of the former palestine mandate currently controlled by the muslims is a precedent for a muslim free status in Jewish controlled areas. As jews awaken to the swindles and slaughters of jews and the financing thereof they will seek less to have peace with the jew killers and swindlers. It is unlikely that a fair, peaceful or just solution to jordan is the only “palestinian” home will occur. In a future paradigm the jews may cease the paradigm of a defense strategy and embrace an offense strategy for survival and self interest. Many Jews believe that Jordan is part of Israel and the unwillingness of the muslims to reach real peace may bring about a different future than that envisioned by Israels enemies
@ dweller:
Stanley, switch to decaf.
(Do it gradually, of course, but start now.)
In time, you’ll thank me for it.
@ Stanley:
Stanley, switch to decaf.
(Do it gradually, of course, but start now.)
In time, you’ll thank me for it.
@ yamit82:
You will do nothing of the kind without the full approval of the NEW WORLD ORDER and the BILDERBERGERS. Those folks are still the sole rulers of the world today.
Dear Yamit82,
I think that your response to Jordanian was somewhat impolite and inappropriate. This is not the way to talk to someone who is clearly open to the idea of Jordan being Palestine. Your words were insulting and hurtful, building resentment, and thus serve to work against the idea of an eventual true universal peace, which is a fundamental tenet of Judaism.
@ Jordanian:
I have a better idea. Why don’t we kick your sorry asses all the way back to Iraq and Saudi Arabia where most of you came from to begin with?
Water you stupid AH, we are supplying you with over 50 million cm of our water and depriving our own citizens of water charging them over 200% more than we would need to if we were not giving Jordan our scarce resource, water needed by ourselves. We are actually paying for the agreement with Jordan and I hope you break it. Then we will break you. You could drink the water from the Dead Sea? 🙂
Israel should be sure that the type of Monarchy Jordan has is among the worst five in the whole world. This can not last for longer than a year or two. At status quo, Jordanians’ problem is mostly with the corrupted comprehensive monarchy, and partly with the relation with israel. Jordanian will not accept continuation of such rediculous relation. They want their water back and be free from any bad inflence of this relation that was initialed with the monarchy for the benifit of the monachy and israel. Jordanian will not have a problem with israel if they get a fair and just relation with israel to both Jordan and the palestinians west of the river. All Jordanians still consider the palestinians as their first family. People have nothing to loose in the region. As long as our palestian brothers ok and treated well by you, you will be ok too.
So, the only safe and most ethical measure that Israel should do is to be prepared to accept amendments of curerent peace treaty which will be approved by the people of both countries. Most importantly, it should draw the last fixed border line between israel and Jordan.