By Ted Belman
I had a conversation today with a highly placed individual in the Israel government and knows whereof he speaks.
He is close friends with Michael Oren and Ron Dermer. Although he hasn’t spoken to either of them in the last few weeks, the impression he got from them is that Obama is not coming here to break Israel’s balls. He believes that the two state solution is not a high priority for the beleaguered Obama or his State Dept.
He also warned not to follow the story lines reported by left wing media here and in the US. They are trying to generate momentum to in furtherance of their agenda.
Besides he says, so what if Obama comes here and makes demands, Bibi will just file them away with his other demands and life will go on. I am not so sanguine.
So then I called up another highly placed individual and he too was not terribly concerned. He thought the most Bibi was prepared to do is to support a few major projects of PM Fayyad in the territories such as an airport near Jericho and the new city he is building east of Ramallah.
He did mention how serious the feud was between Sara Netanyahu and Bennet. Boggy Yaalon wanted Bennet as his Director General and Sara said “Over my dead body”. He thought it was plausible that Bibi wanted to punish the settlers.
@ Canuck Frank:
“I May It Be A Loooooooooooooonatic But You Knew From the Start” Billy Joel
Ted Belman Said:
Maybe both?
@ thomas:
The only way that could happen is if the “$150 million” was not part of the actual Congressional appropriation for last year
— as when the Executive Branch finds ways of screwing around with “discretionary” allocations to implement something else.
Then, presumably the Exec Branch could proceed to cut THAT for the following year.
I doubt it though. Just sounds like the other doom-&-gloom scenarios the White House has been tossing around, to scare the daylights out of the people.
(This time, however, I don’t think they’re gonna bite; BHO has overplayed his hand.)
@ yamit82:
But I like being baited. Really!!!!
@ yamit82:
.
Ilove giving you a buzzzzzzzzzzzz and sting !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now its siesta time at the old ranch house.
Jeffrey Cohen Said:
Israels aid package won’t be effected because it’s paid in a lump sum in January. What will be effected is the supplementary aid for Arrow and Iron Dome. This is an in house (Blue and White) production line including most components, American Industry and workers won’t be affected.
Honey Bee Said:
I wasn’t baiting you but supporting you, really!!!
@ yamit82:
Sugarpie you know your both or you wouldn’t be baiting me.
@ Ted Belman:
Are your refering to Carin or yourself. I don’t back up and I don’t back down,just like my name sake.
@ yamit82:
Cutting aid to Israel will not affect Israel. It will affect the US corporation that Israel will no longer be buying from.
Honey Bee Said:
I understand most of your comments so does that make me either inane or “INSANE”? Ha-Haaa!
@ Honey Bee:Shouldn’t “inane” be spelt “insane”?
@ yamit82:
I write inane responses because the world is iname,and who ever does not believes that Iran and Obama do not mean WHAT THEY SAY, are inane also. That is why I love Mexicans,they have a very juanticed view of the world.
@ Eric R.:
I cannot understand the refusal of the Jewish to face facts. Please believe Obama and Iran MEAN what they say! I thank G-d for my Great-Aunt Annie who ,trough force of will,moved my Grand-mother’s family to the USA. My Grand-father’s family remained in Poland and it became their grave!
@ dweller:
$150 million reduction? http://www.israelnationalnews.com/wap/Item.aspx?type=0&item=165985
@ yamit82:
Nope. Not if that “$3.15 billion” figure was the actual amount explicitly appropriated last year by the USA Congress.
The federal govt NEVER spends less in a given year than the previous year.
This is because Base-Line Budgeting (first implemented in the 70’s) prevents it.
Instead, when “budget cuts” are proposed, they are always cuts from the projected INCREASE for the coming year.
If the govt spends [just to pick a figure:] a “thousand dollars” on something in a given year, and then anticipates that it will want to increase that baseline amount for the FOLLOWING year by, say, “10 percent” — making the consequent anticipated next year’s budget for that item “$1100”
— and if the govt THEN decides to “cut the budget” or “cut spending” by, e.g., “3 percent” — that 3 percent NEVER comes off of the $1000 identical to what was spent in the previous year. That $1000 is untouched for the coming year.
The “3 percent” comes ONLY out of the projected increase: the anticipated ADDITIONAL $100 — so instead of the full additional $100, they pay out only $97 [$100 minus 3 percent] — then scream bloody murder over the “unconscionable budget cuts.”
It’s nutty as fruitcake, but that’s the way the game is played.
Steinitz can relax (if that’s really what’s worying him).
If in fact Congress explicitly appropriated $3.15 Billion for GOI last year — then after the smoke clears,
and the moaning & groaning,
and the shrecking & shrying,
and hissin’ & spittin’
have all subsided,
nothing less than $3.15 Billion will be appropriated to GOI for the coming year.
Wonderful comment! You are genious.
Israel prepares to take aid hit as US enacts budget cuts
A worst-case scenario would be the U.S. cutting $500 million from its $3.15 billion foreign aid to Israel • Finance minister: The economic difficulties in the U.S. worry us. I hope they do not hurt us.
Ted my last comment in moderation, take a look at it.
I suggest Looking at The Big Picture Reality!!
The US is NOT a Superpower Anymore
by Tamar Yonah
The United States of America is no longer a Superpower, it used to be, but it can no longer claim such, and what’s more, the entire world knows it. (Such is the case, even if Americans refuse to admit it; nay, much because Americans are incapable of viewing it.)
(This article is written by guest-blogger, scientist, defense industry expert, and author, Mordechai Ben-Menachem)
23 Adar 5773 (5 March 2013)
The definition of a “Superpower” is a nation that can project power, anywhere in the world, at short notice. To differentiate, the definition of a “Regional Power” is a nation that can project power within its region (the notion of ‘notice’ is one measure of its degree of power within that region, relative to rival powers).
Previously, at least from the time of Eisenhower until the time of George W. Bush, the US was clearly a Superpower, with the Russian Empire (USSR) as a rival power for part of that time. History showed that the US was the superior superpower with the collapse of the USSR and formation of the existing Russian state. Geographic size is not a prime factor, access to resources is. Power takes many forms, not all military, but military power must empower others for affectivity; “… carry a big stick” as international relations’ key.
David Goldman claimed in November, “America is in incipient decline.” I disagree. Decline began either with the first Bush or with Clinton. Obama is reaping the fruits of the incipient decline he inherited, and is taking it further. He desires such, while his predecessors’ orientations were limited their own ego-needs. Clinton’s administration can best be characterized as “eat, drink and have sex; who cares what happens after my term is finished”. I believe Obama genuinely cares about America, but not for America – he desires a humbled America.
The decline takes many forms, from fertility through welfare recipients, through budgets and debts.
By the end of this decade the percentage of population over 60 crosses the 25% threshold. The ‘replacement’ population is both significantly less educated and less motivated – 40% of all births in 2011 were out-of-wedlock. Unemployment for those with a high-school diploma or less stood at 12.2% in 2011 and is growing, rapidly. US overall fertility stands now at 1.6 and continues in rapid decline, including the Hispanic population; the American population pyramid is distinctly top-heavy. What all this means is a smaller workforce, addicted to welfare (why work!), with much lower education (high functional illiteracy) and non-patriotic (in 2012, only 49% of the population considered themselves patriotic). US population rose from 200 to 300 million since 1970, but the number of two-parent families with children remained unchanged 25 million. Today’s labor market is dominated by corporations sourcing labor globally. Corporations neither desire nor need lazy dolts.
America is a nation of takers:
– Entitlements, after inflation and population growth, grew by over 700% in 50 years,
– half of Americans live in a household that receives one or more payments, 18% of all personal income;
– only half the working-age population works.
Americans with a stake in economic growth are a shrinking minority of the population.
The US administration has a policy of extrication from the ME, as it no longer imports significant energy from the region. What does the diminishing role mean for Jordan and other allies?
Vacuums are always filled by other forces – in nature and in politics. “The Libyan fiasco reflects the American policy’s sad reality” reported the official Chinese newspaper, The Global Times. China smells America’s weakness. Libya is a source of NATO-quality small arms and World-class Jihadis, creating havoc throughout Africa and the Middle East. Everyone outside America knows this. Americans do not.; the founders’ vision of “an informed populace” has ceased to exist.
The budget crisis is a result of poor political management of defense spending. “We are facing the prolonged specter of sequestration [$500 billion additional cuts over 10 years], while under a continuing resolution [no budget], while we are just beginning to absorb $478 billion worth of cuts from 2011 and while we’re still fighting and resourcing a war,” US Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs testified. “That’s unprecedented.” Under Eisenhower, the US spent 51% on defense; today, 72% of federal government expenditures are entitlements. Reagan’s 600-ship Navy was down to 285-ships when Obama took office, it is now declining to 230, the smallest level since 1915 (and that number includes at least two carrier flotillas that cannot sail for lack of fuel); the Air Force is loosing 200 more airplanes, according to General Philip Breedlove, the Air Force vice chief of staff. According to Breedlove, the average fighter age is 22 years and tankers average 47 years. There is a gross shortage and obsolescence of parts. We mention unemployment above. Nearly a million persons are expected to loose their jobs in the defense sector from sequestration; while US enemies are increasing efforts to develop advanced capabilities. Timely recovery will not be a viable option, even if funding is somehow restored.
If the Government of the United States decided that it wishes to attack Iran, to destroy or seriously inhibit, that nation’s nuclear aspirations, the military capability for such a prolonged air strike no longer exists, neither from land-based or carrier-based aircraft. Global power projection is no longer an option, and such an option cannot be restored within a foreseeable timeframe.
The United States of America is no longer a Superpower. The US of A is going down in the annals of history as the world’s shortest-lived empire. This is here, now, not a long-range prediction.
I discern, with admittedly wry amusement, that ever since I wrote in depth about my work for the late Rav Meir Kahane as one of his North American Kach insiders, my comments all appear to be subject to “awaiting moderation”.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Ted, take care that your newly-growing degree of sanguinity, regarding Israel’s dealings with Obama or his state and defense departments, do not curdle into outright complacency. This situation, dismal as it is, shall continue until Israel develops a much large power base relative to the new and decaying 21st century Roman Empire, which tends to interfere everywhere at the same rate that its capabilities to police the world decays.
In short, Israel needs truly defensible borders around a greatly expanded land area and a quadrupled population of the Jewish nation to fill its new cities, grow its economy, and swell the ranks of its national army when needed. Last but never least, Israel needs strong friendships with other powers such as China, Russia, India, Japan and local powers such as Brazil, Argentina, Germany and others that may arise. Israel can never again afford total dependence on the USA, even if Canada were added into the mix.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Bernard Ross Said:
the only argument I can see for giving the Pals the unpopulated areas of C would have to do with giving them a “viable” state in shape size etc. However, giving the pals a “viable” state is not Israels responsibility and there was no prior viable pal state. Perhaps the proposed confed with Jordan is a way to make the viable state issue moot. If there is an interim agreement with borders left for a final agreement, and we see the confed proposal re-emerging as it recently did, it might be the way of making the “viability” of shape and contiguity a non issue and Israel getting more of C.
I wonder if BB will recognise a pal state immediately with borders subject to negotiation and final agreement and recognition of a jewish state. I wonder what the situation would be if 2 UN states disagree over borders . I expect if it remains unresolved then the defacto possession obtains. It would be difficult to evoke occupation “atrocities” over an area which is unpopulated especially if you can’t bus your “oppressed” pals from ramallah to the unpopulated areas of C. I am wondering if the approach could be to end with a defacto situation giving them some parts of C over time (as already being discussed in gestures)with Jordan later taking responsibility for security under a confed(similar to security arrangements developing with egypt and gaza) and agreements negotiated under the current treaty with Jordan. This would give the pals their state but would leave them with no chance of getting part of Jerusalem, a formal link to gaza,refugees into Israel, etc. They could only sue Israel in international court claiming parts of unpopulated C; but then what possible legal basis would their new state have over that unpopulated area which is not in their possession, has few arabs, has a continuing trail of law supporting jewish settlement. I am just surmising that they may have a strategy based on the final decision not to desire or annex the populated arab areas. Perhaps an interim agreement is made with the idea that there will be no final agreement.
@ Bernard Ross:
I don’t get it either but the Sasson Report standing, the Levy Report buried and the Supreme Court Ruling that renders all such lands “Palestinian Arab” might have something to do with it!
My view is that presidential trips are pre planned to omit any surprises to either party; especially one which is volatile. A President travels to look good and make announcements which make him look good without problems. A President does not travel to a country to commit an unexpected hostile act mainly because he can end up looking like doo doo. Therefore any announcements of change to be made will be pre agreed and known beforehand. This leaves out any unknown, un pre planned threat or demand. If there is any “surprise” it will be no surprise to BB. there might be gestures, etc but it has been pre arranged. The visit should be an indication of the future direction.
Something I do not generally understand: Those that wish to give away the unpopulated areas of Area C. I understand the argument of unwillingness to transfer arabs and not wanting to govern the arabs but why give more than the currently populated areas. At the very least the unpopulated areas should be reserved for the only people with a legal basis. There is no legal basis for those who do not currently live there to have any sovereignty there other than the Jews for which the unpopulated areas have been reserved for settlement under international law. Jordan relinquished sovereignty so why assume the arabs who live in ramallah have sovereignty over areas in which they do not even reside? At the very least the unpopulated areas of C should be annexed. Why have I never heard this mentioned? It appears to be assumed that unpopulated land belongs to the arabs but this would mean that the Jews have no claim or connection at all(not even a dispute ove territory)? This contradicts international law and treaty and also brings into question the right of any Jew to live in Tel Aviv. Actually these claims are already being made in Europe. How can the GOI support this position?
Ted,
Stop drinking the kool-aid. We have an Islamo-Marxist as President. He will accept a second Shoah, even if a Samson Option kills a billion people.