Ted Belman: Let’s hope.The Min of Defense is in charge of managing Judea and Samaria through COGAT. Just as Yaalon, as Min of Defense, had the ability to let the EU back building by Arabs in area C, Bennett in the same position will be able to greatly affect Israel’s policies there.
Analysis: only one politician has an interest in these elections, and his fingerprints are all over it. Enter the next defense minister.
Bennett stands to gain because, according to every single poll, his party is the only one that can be expected to grow by 50% or more in the ballots. Presently, Jewish Home has 12 MKs. The polls predict 17, 19, maybe more. These numbers are commensurate with those Bennett had in the polls in late 2012, before an extremely hurtful – and self-injuring – Likud election campaign reduced his public support.
Bennett is now the likely candidate for minister of defense, come April. Since defense is Bennett’s forte – although finances are certainly not a point of weakness for the all-Israeli hi-tech superstar economics minister – this is without a doubt the position he is angling for. The public is not ready for Bennett as prime minister, and people close to him, like Minister Uri Orbach, say so too. But a successful and dominant defense minister who brings security back to the Israeli streets, and possibly spearheads a strike on Iran’s nuclear industry, later in his term, is a shoo-in to replace Binyamin Netanyahu at the country’s helm, when the time comes.
Leaks from Netanyahu and Bennett’s immediate surroundings confirm that Bennett has been talking to Netanyahu about the position of defense minister, post-elections, and that Netanyahu has come to accept that Bennett will be his most senior partner in the next government. Bennett confirmed as much – most likely intentionally – when he scolded Minister Uri Ariel the other day, and told him that his insistence on taking up more space on the Jewish Home list than Bennett is willing to give him will cost the party the defense minister’s position.
The Yisrael Hayom bill
When analyzing what led Netanyahu to confront rogue ministers Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni in a way that made these elections inevitable, many point to the “Yisrael Hayom bill” as psychological point of no return. Netanyahu, the manwho has withstood thousands of backstabbing knives and poisoned political barbs without wincing, was apparently truly hurt by the bill. He could be seen muttering to himself, “shame, shame,” as the bill passed on the Knesset floor, in the preliminary reading. The possibility that the bill would turn into law was a nightmare to him, it seems – since after all, Yisrael Hayom has provided him with an invaluable counterweight to the leftist press’s hate machine.
Bennett may not have voted for the bill on the Knesset floor – but he originally co-authored it. Technically, it was MK Ayelet Shaked, his loyal number two person, who co-signed the bill, but this makes no difference. Bennett was behind the bill from the get-go, causing no small amount of consternation among his loyal followers, who could not figure out why he appeared to be helping out Israel’s leftist stiflers. The mystery now appears to have been solved: Bennett wanted to put Netanyahu in a dark corner, and then offer him the way out. This is precisely what happened.
After all, it was only Netanyahu’s prejudice against Bennett that kept him from offering the Jewish Home a more senior partnership in the present, dissolving government. Because of bad blood between Bennett and Binyamin Netanyahu – or more precisely, Binyamin and Sarah Netanyahu, as many claim – Bennett had good cause to fear that Netanyahu would use him as a pawn in the post-election haggling and eventually kick him out of the coalition, or offer him an insulting position inside it. Bennett countered with a classic move – an unlikely “pact of brothers” with Yair Lapid – that forced Netanyahu to give him the political respect he felt he deserved.
Bennett now says that this pact was a mistake, but of course, it was not a mistake for him at the time it was made. He can afford to call it a gaffe now that his goal has been attained, and Netanyahu has come to depend on his support, in a way that squeezes out the bad blood of personal rivalry between the men, and replaces it with the untainted blood of political allies.
Pushing out Yaalon
If things go as Bennett want them to, this election will mean that his nemesis, Tzipi Livni, and her cohort Lapid, are expelled from the coalition, and Bennett replaces Moshe Yaalon at the helm of the defense establishment. De facto if not de jure, Bennett was obviously vying with Yaalon for that position anyway, as the Gaza campaign showed. It was he who pushed for an operation against the lethal Hamas terror tunnels, while Yaalon preferred to shut his eyes and pretend the tunnels would just go away. Bennett’s hyperactive involvement in the nuts and bolts of the operation saved the day, as has been confirmed by people likeex-Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, and left-leaning investigative reporters, who have no reason to give Bennett undeserved compliments. It also infuriated Yaalon, who called it “anarchy.”
The threats to Israel are multiplying exponentially, and Bennett’s instinct tells him that Israel needs him as close to the helm as possible. The threat of Hezbollah tunnels in the northern border prompted justifiably fearful local leaders to threaten independent action to locate the tunnels, on Tuesday. Parts of Jerusalem are war zones, and every day brings news of a new stabbing or car terror attack. Iran is hurtling toward nukes.
Bennett wants to be minister of defense, and Israel will apparently be better off for it. He may well have been trying to tell us that, when he raised eyebrows by stating several weeks ago that his own government has no right to exist if it fails to go on the offensive against terror.
Several months of venomous campaigning lie ahead, but most of the poison appears to be headed in Netanyahu’s direction, not Bennett’s. The most likely outcome of the elections is a return to the traditional coalition of Likud and the religious right, with an extremely talented – if somewhat Machiavellian – political leader as minister of defense. While expensive and unnecessary in the eyes of the public, and Hamas “victory” claims aside, the election and its results may prove to be extremely bad news for Israel’s enemies in the long run.
NormanF Said:
Miracle, now that is a funny choice of words. Much better chance Bennet becomes PM than the moshiach putting in a personal appearance, with all due respect to our friends at Chabad. The problem as I see it with Bennet as PM is, and I agree with you I would love it too, but so would the so-called eurotrash, who would scream bloody murder that Bennet is the reincarnation of Mussolini or worse and would push for withdrawal of their ambassadors and immediate moves to place sanctions on Israel. Better to let Bennet spend some time as Minister of Defense first and then with the experience gained, could morte easily and naturally transition into the PM’s seat. I think Netanyahu may help Bennet and take him under his wing, believe it or not as chosen successor at the appropriate time. Bibi does not wish to be defeated. Also, I predict Netanyahu intends to re-define himself to compete with Bennet in the near term for the hearts and minds of The Israeli Right. The proof is the firing of the two numbskulls and the calling of new elections plus he may make additional controversial moves to prove his bona fides . Netanyahu and Bennet could make an excellent partnership assuming Netanyahu is resolute on a hardcore reset of his previously stated support for a “pal” state in favor of the orginal goal as enunciated by PM Begin aka autonomy.
NormanF Said:
No it won’t. It will just take the filthy Jew-hating scum of the world to keep doing over the next three months what they have been doing for 2000 years.
Its already happening and world hostility to Israel will intensify – because both the Eurotrash and the present US Administration recognize Israel is never going to accede to a Palestinian Arab state.
I would love to see Bennett become PM but that would take a miracle. We’ll have to see what happens over the next few months.
Bear Klein Said:
Over the next three months, we can expect to see the Euronazis endorse and recognize a Palestinian state, the UN do the same (with the help of the Muslim sympathizer in the White House), and increased sanctions and boycotts of Israel, plus Israel being brought to the ICC.
Every single one of these events will push the Israeli electorate farther and farther to the right. Therefore, ignore the polls now. I bet that come March, world events show enough hostility to Israel and Jews that Bennett comes out on top.
You heard it here. Bennett will be the next PM.
Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast by Army Radio by on Dec 3 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [18] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [15] Labor
09 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [–] New Kachlon Party
07 [06] Meretz
10 [11] Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad, Hadash
00 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
84 [61] Right-Religious
36 [59] Center-Left-Arab
@ Eric R.:
Bennett, provided his party stays together with all their current factions and keeps growing may someday become Prime Minister. If they are the second largest party and need the Likud to be part of the coalition to have a majority will not be the “King” but “kingmakers”.
I am not opposed to Bennett (actually he is my favorite politician) but if current polls are more or less accurate will be the number one partner to the Likud.
The Likud will try and have Bennett become Finance Minister but Bennett if plays his cards correctly will become Defense Minister.
I have a question — why should we assume Bennett would settle for being Defense Minister — doesn’t he think that his party, combined with religious parties, can outflank Likud, and thus he can become Prime Minister?
I bet that we will see a surprise here like in 1977 when Begin won. I hope Obama is ready to deal with PRIME Minister Bennett.
Hopefully Uri Ariel will not screw up the climb of the Bayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home) party. Less surprising
things have happened in Israeli politics (where personal ambition overtakes the greater good).
The Arabs if they band into one party will perhaps grow their seat count. If they do not band together they will loose seat count. Hopefully Livni does not make the minimum 3.5% vote count (it will be close) to have a party in the Knesset.
I agree with the aforegoing take on how this came about – Netanyahu and Bennett have not been on good terms for years but they have gradually grown to respect each other. The election is likely to invigorate Israel’s Right. And its going to disappoint those in the EU and the US counting on a more compliant Israeli government to make unilateral concessions to the Arabs.
The big losers of the early election are the Arabs and the Israeli Left.