Macron on the wrong side of history

The election of Donald Trump and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria will compel a recalibration of recalibration of France’s past policies. Opinion.

Martin Sherman | Dec 13, 2024

Emmanuel Macron   Reuters

Often a man’s perfidy will rebound on himself –Jean de La Fontaine

French President, Emmanuel Macron is facing trying times, and recent pronouncements by French officials appear only to exacerbate his unenviable situation.

As will be recalled, last week, the French government fell with a resounding thud that could well reverberate across Europe.

This week, the French came out with an astounding rebuke of Israel’s military action in Syria, to prevent strategic armaments from falling into the hands of the militant Sunni Islamist rebels—invoking an Israeli-Syrian disengagement agreement signed half a century ago on which to base their censure. In a perverse reprimand, the French foreign ministry grumbled: any military deployment in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria is a violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement which must be respected by its signatories, Israel and Syria.” ”

One can only puzzle over how Macron and his government would relate to a reality in which such a strategic stockpile was at the disposal of groups with close affiliation with ISIS and A-Qaeda in the not-too-distant past.

The shortest serving PM ever

Of course, last week, a successful vote of no confidence triggered the collapse of the French government, and Prime Minister Michel Barnier submitted his resignation, adding to the political turmoil in which the country is embroiled.

In response to an attempt to railroad through legislation relating to the annual budget, Left-leaning lawmakers called a no-confidence motion, which passed with the support of the Right-wing National Rally.

Thus, the Barnier government became the first French government to be defeated in a no-confidence motion since 1962, making Barnier himself France’s shortest-serving prime minister in history.

With the collapse of the government, calls for Macron himself to resign began to pour in from his opponents, with some suggesting that the president’s resignation could break the deadlock.

Thus far, however, Macron has resisted such calls, vowing to serve out his elected term (ending in 2027). However, there have been suggestions that the current crisis could herald the onset of the twilight of Macron’s political career.

Biblical justice?

In Israel, few will view Macron’s tribulations with great sorrow. To the contrary, many might see it as poetic—even; biblical—justice.

After all, Frances’s recent behavior toward the Jewish state has hardly been that of a firm friend or amicable ally.

Indeed, I recently posted several articles detailing the unscrupulous nature of Macron’s foreign policy in the Middle East including a growing alignment with Iran on certain issues and a disturbing coziness with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with Paris willing to turn a blind eye to the brutal activities of the Iranian proxy terror group in return for a lucrative Beirut construction contract with a close Macron associate.

Moreover, not only has Paris encouraged an arms embargo against Israel, berated it for “sowing barbarism” in Gaza, and barred Israel firms from participating in prestigious arms exhibitions in France, but it also initially declared that France would honor the scandalous ICC warrants issued for the arrest of both Israel’s Prime Minister and Defense Minister—supposedly to respect the “independence” of the ICC and uphold France’s “international obligations”

Thus, even PM Barnier pontificated pompously that France “will rigorously apply the obligations incumbent upon it” in terms of international law—an ostensibly high-minded position that Paris soon abandoned.

France flip-flops

Yet despite this blatant bias against Israel, France still expressed the wish to participate in the multi-nation committee monitoring the newly brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s initial response was to oppose French membership in the monitoring committee, however, it later dropped its opposition to France’s participation following Paris’s recanting—or at least fudging—its initial position on the ICC warrants—asserting that the provisions for immunity from ICC prosecution apply to Netanyahu and, thus, neither he nor any other Israeli leader charged by the ICC would be arrested by France.

This hasty reversal underscored once again the unprincipled and cynical nature of French foreign policy and its willingness to trade alleged moral values for political influence and material gain. Indeed, Israel may yet rue its decision to permit French participation in the monitoring mechanism. Thus, within days of the signing of the November 27 ceasefire agreement, France reported dozens of alleged Israeli violations when the IDF reacted to Hezbollah breaches without going through the channels laid out in the agreement—which prime facie, appear too time-consuming to facilitate an effective IDF response to unfolding Hezbollah threats (such as a crew preparing to launch rockets into Israel).

A new sheriff in town

Given past French anti-Israel animus—and covert commitments of leniency toward Hezbollah—it is more than likely that, should the ceasefire breakdown, France will rush to lay the blame at Israel’s door, regardless of any role Hezbollah might have had in precipitating the collapse.

Two recent developments, however, may result in a future very different from the recent past, with Macron finding himself—and France—very firmly on the wrong side of history.

The one is the election of Donald Trump to the White House. In his first term in office, Trump demonstrated that he is unequivocally predisposed toward Israel—recognizing Israeli sovereignty of the Golan, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, and calling out the malfeasance of UNRWA. Indeed, if anything, indications are that he is likely to be even more pro-Israel in his second term—given the team he has appointed to key positions in his administration, which could hardly be more supportive of the Jewish state.

Moreover, Trump and Macron are liable to find themselves at loggerheads not only on matters of substance where Macron seems closer to the perversely pro-Hamas woke opponents of Trump than to the President-elect himself, but also on matters of style where Macon’s manipulative sophistry is likely to clash with Trump’s earthy down-to-earth common sense.

Backing a losing horse?

The second major development is the collapse of the pro-Hezbollah Assad regime. The loss of its Syrian prop and in particular the conduit for arms from an increasingly beleaguered Iran is likely to make the Shia terror organization a considerably less formidable specter, and accelerate its dwindling popularity with the Lebanese population.

Accordingly, the changing Mid-East fortunes are liable to leave the French President backing a losing horse and facing the bitterness of a population long held hostage by his favored—but now vanquished—accomplices.

Dr. Martin Sherman is the founder and CEO of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies.