Peloni: The war in Ukraine has always been the physical manifestation of the dueling interests of a sovereign Russia with that of the US power elites, the US Deep State &, to a far less relevant degree, those of Europe as well, even while the actual fighting remained between Ukraine & Russia. Similarly, the peace will be largely fashioned around the interests of the US and Russia, and Ukraine will come to either deal with the conclusion of these decisions or will ultimately be consumed as a result of being led by a comic with less regard for his nation’s survival than for the support among the European and American Democratic autocrats whom it appears he is still serving.
Stephen Bryen | Weapons & Strategy | Mar 18, 2025
In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, emergency services personnel work to extinguish a fire following a Russian rocket attack in Poltava
A preliminary readout of the Trump-Putin telephone call says that the two leaders agreed on a limited ceasefire arrangement covering energy facilities in Ukraine and Russia. It is questionable if Ukraine will accept the deal.
“The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.”
The Kremlin said “It was emphasized [presumably by President Putin] that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.”
The negotiations will take place in “a bilateral mode” meaning no Ukrainians and no Europeans. The sides agreed on “experts groups” to work out the terms of a possible agreement to settle the Ukraine conflict. The “bilateral mode” separates the US and Russia from immediately having to deal with Ukraine. The deal between Putin and Trump also clearly displaces the Europeans, particularly the EU and NATO, where Washington no longer finds either the EU or NATO helpful or constructive.
It appears this means the Russians will stop its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and Ukraine will stop long range attacks targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. In Ukraine’s case this would mean Ukraine won’t attack refineries, oil and gas transit hubs, pipelines and fuel storage sites. Russia will stop attacking power plants, electricity distribution systems, and other parts of Ukraine’s energy distribution system.
There is a good chance Ukraine will not honor the Trump-Putin agreement.
The limited ceasefire is likely to be set for 30 days, but probably could be extended if the parties agree.
The talks covered other bilateral issues beyond Ukraine.
The US Embassy in Moscow also reported: “The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.”
The US Moscow embassy also noted “The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.”
There are many questions going forward including Ukrainian resistance to the limited ceasefire and the upcoming talks “in the Middle East.” However, Ukraine does not have much room for maneuver, since the US has now discounted Europe’s involvement, taking away the political support Ukraine is trying to leverage.
The Russians must be taught that the nuclear threat against the Jews is real. This can be done by an argument based on the most recent discoveries
The cheapest way is the clean and green way. Nuclear for energy is now way down. It is not taken seriously.
And the fossil fuels MUST remain in the ground
Wind and solar is way up in Texas of all.places
Can Trump make that argument? He is intelligent. And Musk is totally convinced about Global Warming
@fquigley
All that you say is true, but we have to ask ourselves if either Russia or the US are going to remake the Ukrainian state into something other than what it is today, and sadly I would argue that the answer is that they will not. While Russia has the interest to do so, they lack the capability, and while the US has the capability, I would argue they lack the interest to do so.
Reform in Ukraine will need to come from within Ukraine, and the role and power which is held by many Nazis in that failed state will not wane overnight. So should a peace candidate be chosen, the question remains whether the Ukrainian people, what’s left of them, will come to support their choice of peace beyond casting a ballot on election day, if and when elections are once again resumed. Indeed, they failed to do so in 2014 and again in 2019-20 when their peace candidates were deterred from completing the promises made during their respective campaigns. So it will be important to see if the suffering endured across all of Ukraine will lead the public to be more warry of war or more supportive of it. Either way, I don’t foresee the political change in Ukraine being forced upon them by either the US or Russia, as explained above.
Peloni
What they have done is massive. That was the key fact that all this evil of Stepan Bandera hid behind. Right back as early as 1917 these national forces were always ogling for a prop and they ALWAYS took the most evil people to attach themselves to.
@Felix
Look now.
This is massive. And it is most serious that Peloni does not offer to the readers of israpundit any word of analysis