By Ted Belman
Although Liberman is pushing for a Unity Government without the “messianic right”, what he campaigned on was the need for a new social contract between the religious and the secular. His demands were reasonable rather than outrageous. He repeated from time to time.
“We will not concede on passing the ultra-Orthodox conscription law, in its original format,” he wrote. “We will not concede on [the demand to] repeal the mini-markets law. We will not concede on [demands for] public transportation on Shabbat. We will not concede on [demands for] civil marriage, and we will demand the inclusion of core curriculum studies in the ultra-Orthodox education system. These are our preconditions, and until we hear words in this spirit, there is nothing to talk about.”
On the other hand Netanyahu’s wish list is that 1) he be the next PM, 2) that the government passes an immunity bill to protect him.
The solution to this impasse is that both sides should concede what the other wants.
Yes UTJ and Shas are the stumbling blocks but what choice do they have. Neither they, nor Netanyahu, believe that a third election will change anything for the better. Thus they should cut the best deal they can and give in to most of Liberman’s demands. Whatever it takes. If they are excluded from the government, they will fare even worse.
Haaretz reports:
“The high ultra-Orthodox birthrate will have major implications for Israel’s future. Haredim currently constitute about 12% of the country’s population, the Central Bureau of Statistics says, but the statistics agency projects that by 2065, they will be 32% of the population. Israel’s future is therefore closely tied to the future of Israeli Haredim, for better or worse. Unfortunately, if the current trend persists, it would be mostly for the worse. That’s because of the highly destructive phenomenon in which most ultra-Orthodox Israeli men don’t study core academic subjects, don’t serve in the army and are not part of the modern workforce, instead devoting their time to religious study.”
As their numbers grow, they will be called upon, even more so, to join the IDF and the workforce in greater numbers. There will be no political stability until they do.
As for Netanyahu’s legal woes, chances are that he won’t be indicted on all the cases. Some will be dropped and some will be lessened. Besides, there is no Israeli law that says that he must resign if indicted. Remember, in law, an accused is innocent until proven guilty.
Thursday Netanyahu reached out to Liberman and suggested that they meet on Sunday. Let’s hope.
Well, Tel Aviv is launching a free shabbat bus program, anyway. Shaked said she has something up her sleeve but it will be ruined if she talks about it so let’s just wait and see..
So the latest handicapping of what is happening in the Israeli process of trying to form a government as presented by Channel 13 News in Israel.
1. Liberman said in a public statement, “That a minority government would be a disaster”. They showed a clip of this.
2. He would be shuttling between Gantz and Bibi trying to forge a unity government.
The analyst’s view was the mostly likely outcome was new elections, with a chance for a unity government and a chance for a right-wing government.
@ Bear Klein: Gantz won’t agree to the direct election of the Prime Minister. Certainly not before he forms his “minority” government. He can become Prime minister over the next few days without the direct election of a Prime Minister. Why should he put that at risk?
https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/11/17/netanyahu-to-gantz-stop-the-madness-of-arab-backed-minority-govt-unite-with-likud/
Yaalon and Ashkenazi have said they will not back a minority government if Liberman is not in the government.
So a minority backed government may be a mirage or a political Bluff. If it was ever to occur it lasting more than a very short time is even a more fleeting idea for anyone who understands Israeli politics and the players in it.
I think that Lahav Harkov and the Jerusalem Post’s staff are wrong in their assessment of the political situation. Since Gantz and Leiberman announced that they intended to form a government with Arab support, I haven’t read that a single member of the left bloc has said publicly that he won’t support such a government. And what choice do they have but to go along, once Gantz, the leader of the left-of-center coalition, has made it clear his mind is made up? In Israel, a politician without a party is like a ship without a sail. There is no guarantee that if any Blue-White MK defects from the coalition, the Likud or any other party will welcome them in. If they form an independent faction, there is no guarantee that they will be able to win Knesset seats if they force new elections in March. Building a political party takes time. And the electorate won’t be especially grateful to them for forcing a new election. Their chances of remaining in the Knesset would be small, and their chances of gaining any ministerial positions even smaller.
If Gantz can get the 12 Arab anti-Zionist MKs to vote for him in a vote of confidence (and I think he can if he really needs their support), then there would have to be ten Jewish delegates who would defect from the Gantz coalition to prevent a simple majority for Gantz as Prime minister. That is extremely unlikely. So none of the Blue-White or Labor people wil desert Gantz when the vote of confidence comes up.
So I think they will all go along with Gantz decision to form a government with the backing of the anti-Zionist parties, even though reluctantly in some cases.
Does the following mean Bibi is ready to abandon the Haredi parties (UTJ & Shas plus Jewish Home)? If gets his way on being PM, I think he will possibly dump the Haredi.
This is why he pulled the New Right into a single faction with Likud partly and gave Bennett the Defense Minister position (which he hated doing) They would have 36 votes and Blue/White 35 in a unity coalition.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/477957
The threat of a minority government needed to appear real for Bibi to seriously consider doing this. The Blue/White and Liberman have certainly convinced some that the threat is real. If it is not real is now a very good political bluff. Bibi has been trying to blow it up but has not been successful.
I don’t think passing a budget will be a problem for Gantz. For one thing, I believe there is some provision in Israeli law (please correct me, Bear or anyone, if I am wrong about this) which permits the President to call an emergency session of the knesset, even outside the regulat budget time, and ask the Knesset to provide emergency funds for the government. If two thirds of the Knesset approves the President’s request, the funds are appropriated. I can’t see Rivlin failing to do this, given the government’s financial emergency, and I can’t see why at least two-thirds of the Knesset won’t approve such a request. All the parties, including even the anti-Zionist ones, want government support for one government program or another. And of course nearly all Jewis MKs want the IDF to continue to be funded, so it will be able to continue to exist and function as a military force.
The same considerations will apply when the regular budget request comes up in March. And only a majority will be necessary to approve a budget then. There will of course be bickering about how much to approve for each program and department, but that happens whenever a budget comes up for a vote. I think is is very likely, however, that whatever budget will be passed will need Gantz’s approval in his capacity as Prime Minister.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/477965
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
If you do not pass a budget with 61 MKs minimum that automatically means the government failed and new elections are required by law.
Anyway, we will see what happens. I am getting a little bored of this dialog for now so have fun with your crystal ball.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:So are saying still the Joint List will be part of coalition with Blue/White & Liberman?
Is that correct?
@ Bear Klein: I does seem unlikely that Gantz will give them any formal executive positions, although we can’t absolutely rule that out. More likely, he will make some informal arrangement with them, whereby he will consult with them in advance about any decisions he has to make that concern Arab interests, including PLO and Hamas interests, and the “peace process,” and won’t do anything in these areas without their permission, or at least quiet acquiescence.
I think that Gantz will follow this policy not because he absolutely needs Arab support to stay in office–the way Israeli law is written, it is very difficult to oust a government once it is installed–but because he believes he needs them to help with the peace process with the Palestinians that he wants to revive. That has been the real reason behind his frequent conferences with the Israeli Arab leaders, and his willingness to give them some sort of role in his government.
I think that Netanyahu and his fellow Likudniks don’t think they would have any real influence in a Blue-White government and that they would lack the power to stop his “peace” policies from going forward. All the less so because of his penchant for operating in secret and not telling people much about what he is up to. They don’t want to alienate their traditional allies among the religious parties, both national-religious and haredi, because they believe they will need their support forming a government the next time the “right” wins a majority in an election (whenever that happens). They are convinced that they can play a more useful role over the next four (or perhaps less) years in the opposition, where they will be free to criticize government policies and ask tough questions of Gantz’s ministers. on the Knesset floor.
@ Adam,
Forming a government requires only a majority of those present for the vote.
However, to pass a budget requires a majority of Knesset members in other words 61. If a minority government were in place it is highly unlikely a majority could be found to pass the required budget in March so new elections would be needed again.
I do not believe there will be Arabs sitting in the government now or back to whenever you are referring. The Arabs in the Knesset are not candidates for partners. There have been Druze MKs and Ministers who I found a positive addition. Including one Likud member whose name escapes me now.
I am not sure now that how many if any would provide blocking support to a minority to Gantz. They may temporarily to get of Bibi as PM who they hate.
I saw an interview with one of the Arab MKs on Israeli TV about 2 or 3 days ago. He said he would be interested in being in a government but that would have to be something in it for him and the Arabs and nothing like that has occurred.
@ Bear Klein: I think the law only requires that there must be a government that gets a majority vote of confidence (not including abstentions) for the Knesset to pass legislation and appropriate funds. And the latest news stories coming out of Israel indicates that Gantz has the necessary votes lined up to get a vote of confidence, without Likud or other right-wing parties. I have never thought that Gantz was interested in including Likud or any other right-wing parties in the government. Nor do I think that any of the Likud MKs were ever interested in serving in a government led by Gantz. Likud and Blue-White, as parties and not just specific individuals in them, dislike and distrust each. A unity government can only come about when there is mutual trust. And there is no mutual trust between the Right bloc and the Left bloc of parties.
For example, Donald Trump will not form a national unity government with the Democrats. And if Nancy Pelosi becomes President (a possibility the way things are going in Washington), she will certainly not form a national unity government with Republicans. Israeli politics is not allthat different from American politics. Coalition governments in Israel with parties with radically divergent agendas have not proven workable in the past. The parties in these coalitions with agendas in conflict with the Prime Minister have tried to undermine him, even with foreign governments. But the Prime Minister, whoever he was, usually got his way in spite of this. I don’t think the present crop of MKs, any of them, want such an unstable arrangement. Instead, they want a government with clearly defined policies–either dovish(Blue-White) or hawkish(Likud).
I hope you are right, Bear, that a government that gives the anti-Zionist parties a say in policy-making will arouse a lot of anger from the electorate. But I think most supporters of the Blue-White and leftist parties won’t be all that angry. When the Jerusalem Post proposed that the Arab anti-Zionist parties be included in the next government, shortly before the September election, there was no great outcry against the editors of the Post. If I recall correctly, you raised no objections, Bear. When Gantz began his intensive negotiations with the Arab parties immediately after the election, there was no outcry from the Left. And there has been no outcry, except from Netanyahu, since Gantz announced his intention to form a government with Arab support if negotiations for a unity government (on his and Leiberman’s terms) failed. As a result, I think an Arab-supported Gantz government has a good chance of lasting four years. But Israel’s security will be severely damaged by the end of those four years, if not sooner.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel/israeli-arabs/netanyahu-in-emergency-shabbat-call-gantz-going-for-arab-supported-minority-government/2019/11/16/
If no Unity Government is formed will this current Knesset Body pass a resolution to keep the Knesset in tact but have a direct election for Prime Minister?
In recent polls Bibi beats Gantz by a few points but it is much closer than in the past. Would this not be the most democratic way to break the impasse? Is Bibi willing to go along with Deri’s (of Shas) idea. Would the Blue/White and/or Liberman go along.
Seems to me a better idea than the game of chicken Blue/White and Bibi are playing over will their be a minority government. If such a cursed thing were ever to occur it would be the shortest live government ever. So there would be new elections again and the wrath of voters could very likely be felt by those going along with such a BS scheme which was devised to make Bibi break up his block.
Certainly from Bibi’s perspective this might be a better idea than another Likudnik taking over and getting 60 other voters to back them as Prime Minister.
From today’s Jewish Press (New York):
Lieberman crowned king maker. Next stop ramallalah.
This report, just in from Arutz Sheva, completely confirms my prediction that Israel will soon have a government that either officially or unofficially includes the anti-Zionist, pro-Palestinian MKs and completely excludes the Right parties.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
But, as Glick noted in her article, Lieberman keeps shifting his position so that they can’t give him what he says he wants. Ganz is doing that, too. I think this may be an international stance on the part of the “Progressive” camp. They can’t win so they want to play the part of the heroic resistance, making what Trotsky called, “transitional” demands, demands which appear reasonable under the existing order but which are impossible to meet and therefore undermine existing society. It’s a crazy approach, but then it’s no accident that no Trotskist regime has ever come to power, anywhere. But, that’s what’s popular. Trotsky and Gramscii, which emphasizes the cultural. Look at the so-called, “Green New Deal” in the U.S. Israel is actually doing it in a practical way, but, as formulated — in a weekend — the American version would banrupt the country.
Sebastien, that’s a fascinating explanation that I never even thought of. Yes, perhaps Israel’s generals and civilian Defense ministry officials are trying to please or appease secret contacts in the Arab world, who have provided them with useful information over the years, but have demanded concessions to Arab positions in return. I can’t remember his name, but there is a son of a major Hamas leader who worked for Israeli intelligence for years, but asked the Israelis to make certain concessions to Arab demands in return. I can’t remember his name, but he calls himself “Son of Hamas,” and now lives in the United States, where he was granted asylum. However, he still appears from time to time on Egyptian TV shows, where he claims he has always been serving the Palestinians’ best interests even as when collaborated with Israel
@ Sebastien Zorn: The drafting of haredi men is another area where the haredim are willing to make concessions. There is some pressure on them “from below” from young haredi men who want to serve, partly because they are patriotic like most young Israelis, but mainly because they are aware that military service is a major route to future gainful employment in Israel. Many young haredim want to have regular jobs in the secular, and especially the tech sector. Many of the haredi rabbis(not al) have gradually eased their hostility to secular employments for haredim, because they realize that state subsidies alone won’t be enough to support the burgeoning population.
But Leiberman’s “not a comma” demand was a deal-breaker, since after all no law has ever been passed by the Knesset without extensive debates both in committee and in the plenum, and without amendments, even if minor ones, being voted on and in some instances adopted. That’s just the way the Knesset and most legislatures around the world work. So yes, I think Caroline is right that Leiberman didn’t really want a deal.
Since the April election, he has introduced even greater deal-breakers into his list of demands,most significantly the demand that the haredimaccept civil marriage and divorce. This demand the haredi parties view as “anti-Torah” and hence utterly unacceptable.
I doubt, though, that personal animosity to Bibi is the reason for Leiberman’s strage behavior. He is an extremely enigmatic politician.
Perhaps he has always felt strongly about the need to secularize Israeli society. Perhaps he has personal friends in the Russian-Jewish community who have been denied a religious marriage, and badly want the validation of a civil marriage. For years, Leiberman worked with the haredi representatives in successive governments on a cordial basis, and did not insist on getting his way on religion-and-state issues. That is why not only Bibi, but the haredi MKs now feel personally betrayed by him. However at seventy (my age, too) “Yvette” has perhaps become concerned about his “legacy, ” and as a result wants to leave behind him a major change in Israeli society that he has always desired. Concern for “legacy,” meaning a major achievement that will outlast his death, has always been a concern for many politicians when they are either approaching the time when they can no longer hold office (i.e. American Presidents), or when they have reached the age where they have to think about what they will “leave behind” when they die. My guess is that it is this thought, not hatred for Bibi, that is motivating Leiberman’s hard line on synagogue vs. state issues.
@ Bear Klein: Excellent selection from an article, Bear. And very much to the point. The haredi parties believe that “Yvette’s” proposals are contrary to Torah. That’s the ultimate no-no in haredi-talk.
Ted, I agree it would be common sense that Liberman and Netanyahu cut a deal. But common sense is largely lacking in Israeli political circles. Stubbornly held positions on the issues, questions of loyalty to traditional allies, and personal animosities, all conspire to defeat common sense.
Likud, not only Bibi but nearly all Likud MKs and most Likud voters, will never accept Netanyahu’s deserting the religious parties, who have been loyal allies of Likud ever since Menechem Begin, of blessed memory, brought them into his coalition in 1977. By contrast, Likudniks see Leiberman as outrageously disloyal, because of his turnaround in April-May and subsequently. I believe that loyalty is a important value in the Likud subculture. That’s why most Likudniks are very reluctant to desert Bibi, and also very reluctant to desert the religious parties. In addition, turning their back on the religious does not seem like good politics to most Likudniks. They expect that there will be future elections, either in four months or four years, and alienating their allies won’t help Likud to return to power. Last but not least, most Likudniks agree that Orthodox Judaism should remain the official religion of the Jewish state. Not only are a fairly large number of Likudniks Orthodox themselves, but even those who are not believe that the Orthodox rabbinical establishment plays a key role in preserving Jewish religious traditions that are also national traditions (the Jewish holidays and the stories connected with them, the sabbath, etc), in preserving Jewish identity and inculcating it in the young, and in discouraging intermarriage, which most right-of-center Israelis believes is a threat to Jewish identification and continuity. On the other hand, many in the left-of-center parties, as well as the Leiberman group, want Israel to be a purely secular society with complete separation of church and state. All this makes a deal between Netanyahu and Leiberman all but impossible.
As for the religious parties submitting to Leiberman
s demands because they have no alternative, they will never agreee to these demands, because they would destroy their civil authority over some matters, (marriage-, divorce, conversion, and burial), and that would violate their core political principles, and those of their electorate. Hence they won’t agree to Leiberman’s demands. It would also involve complete humiliation for them to agree to renounce their most central political principles, and people have to be incredibly desperate and have absolutely no choice (say, at the point of a gun), before they agree to be humiliated. The religious parties would much prefer to spend some years in the political wilderness than to give their consent to measures that they all believe are unacceptable, even sacrilegious.
Finally, tthe religious parties have an ace in the hole no one has noticed. The Arab anti-Zionist parties support they haredi’s demands for state support and control over some aspects of Jews’ life, because they want their own Muslim and Christian clergy to have the same powers over their own community. They also appreciate the non-Zionist ideological stance of the haredim, which make their views at least somewhat closer to those of Israeli Arabs than those of thesecular Jewish majority. Ironically, then, the 12 anti-Zionist Arab delegates are unlikely to support the removal of all civil authority from the Jewish rabbinate. And without Arab votes, such proposals are unlikely to be adopted by the Knesset.
The result of all this: Bibi and Leiberman won’t make a deal with each other. Lieberman won’t make a deal with the haredim. Blue-White will lead the next government with a coalition including Leiberman, the leftist parties, and the anti-Zionist parties, but with no right wing representatives.
UTJ is almost non-bending everything is a matter of religion or principle not negotiable to their Torah Sages. That is why there was no coalition last time. Here is their view in the following interview:
At a time when Israel is facing the greatest peril to its continued existence never before faced with a threat like that from Iran and a nuclear war, Israelis have lost their love for their Rights to the land, fought for with blood and sweat, sacrifieced by the best among the nation’s Young, and Brave IDF soldiers.
Haredim — in great part enemies of the future of the state –are concerned with the budget that benefits them without service to the land. Elected officials are in a power struggle. All of them are overlooking the crucial danger the state of Israel is facing, to its security, which Bibi — like him or not — is the only leader with the capacity, the wherewithal, experience and vision, that is needed to provide at these very dangerious times.
C’mon folks, come to your senses. Time to form a strong united government. And to stand up the Israel’s Legal Rights!
no edit feature: https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2019/05/29/caroline-glick-avigdor-liberman-israels-one-man-wrecking-ball/
I think Caroline Glick is right. It’s a personal grudge.
@ Frank Adam:
It’s not just Bibi. Ganz and Lieberman have demanded the dismantling of the 55 seat — (just 5 seats from being able to form a government, and more than Blue and White has) rightist bloc. There are principled differences here, aside from Ganz’s proven. Bibi has their solid political support. What you are advocating is simply that the right surrender to the left. I presume you are on the left?
It is Netanyahu who should try to be a gentleman by resigning to let B&W, Likud and Lieberman get on with government. That will put the egg on their faces.
BB should then go to court pay his fines or prison time if guilty, and do a Deri come back act and if not become a “national treasure” by writing his memoirs annd going on the lecture circuit. .
They are afraid that their young people will leave their cult if they are exposed to the general culture.
So the want to isolate their young people from other young people.
This shows the worthlessness of their “religion”.
If their religion was valuable, their young people would never want to leave it. They would look at other young people and feel no attraction because they have something better.
The Heredi are acting exactly like the North Koreans, or former East Germans. If any group needs to guard their society from defections, they thereby prove their inferiority.
By the way the same is the case with the Muslims, they too are deeply inferior, they know that their young people are attracted to Western culture and Western values, they try their best to “protect them”.
What the Haredi are most concerned about is assimilation to main stream Israeli culture. Some of the Shas leaders have served in the IDF and certainly even more their voters have served in the IDF. Only lately are they becoming more like the Ashkenazi Haredim and shirking IDF service.
They should find some compromise as the right likely will lose more votes if there was another election.
Trouble is especially part of the UTJ is completely uncompromising. Shas has given great indicators they are open to compromise. Shas is most interested in the budget that flows down to them.