Liberman decided to reboot to regain the mantle of a hawk or strongman

T. Belman. Liberman has more in common with Bennett and Lapid than with Netanyahu. Bib’s decision to embrace Shas and UTJ alienated Lapid, Liberman and Bennett. Together they hold 25 seats. Bib made this mistake because he wanted a more docile government. It backfired.

Many writers are lambasting Bennett for being too greedy. Bennett had every right to make the demands he made because Bibi tried to screw him. Had Bibi not stampeded Bennett’s support to himself,in the last week before the elections, Bennett would have had 12 seats and would have gotten more than he got in this deal. What goes around, comes around.

By Alex Maistrovoy

In opposition, Lieberman hopes to rebrand himself as a “hawk” and a supporter of social equality.

Lieberman’s decision not to join the coalition was a surprise to many Israelis. What prompted the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu to take such step?

1. Joining the coalition would have silenced him. During his campaign, Lieberman strongly opposed funding ultra-orthodoxy Jews. He was opposed to canceling the bill, which seeks a more equitable sharing of the burden of military service in Israel, and the reform of conversion (giur).

Bibi agreed to fulfill all demands of the Haredim and thus Lieberman lost room for maneuvering. He would became a loser from point of view of his voters. Especially in situation when Bibi refused to allocate funds for the needs of “Russian” pensioners i.e., increase construction of social housing and pensions.

2. It is much easier and more convenient to criticize the government and Bibi from the opposition. Lieberman will use every opportunity to criticize every concession of Bibi like,
– caving to pressure from Obama and EU,
– making “steps of good will” i.e., gestures, to the Palestinians,
– weakness and hesitancy in war against Hamas.

Criticizing Bibi, Lieberman can win support of the right wing, who demand a strong government.

3. Lieberman is experienced and crafty player. He wants to take revenge for the failure in last elections. And he wants to do it as fast as possible, because staying in opposition too long could weaken his party. He knows that a government based on 61 mandate is very shake, especially under the inevitable strong pressure from Obama.

Thus, Lieberman will do all he can to bring bring the government down. He will be, in such case, in a good position as defender of “Russian case”, strong supporter of equal burden-sharing with the ultra-Orthodox, and most importantly, uncompromising opponent of any political concessions.

He called his own decision, “restart”.

This plan would be risky if the government is stable and successful. But Lieberman is sure it won’t happen. Any concessions or an unsuccessful campaign in Gaza or Southern Lebanon will undermine support for Bibi and Likud. In such an event Liberman would present himself as a hawk or strongman and Bibi as a wimp.

The author was an adviser to Liberman during the election campaign and during negotiations.