By
There is a struggle going on in Iran right now between the newly-elected President Masoud Pezeshkian and his allies on one side, and the IRGC generals on the other. Pezeshkian believes that a direct attack by Iran on Israel, unless carefully limited, and without causing civilian casualties, will lead to a potentially catastrophic response that will destroy the Iranian economy, after Israel has, to take one example, bombed to smithereens the oil terminals at Kharg Island, where 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow out to customers world-wide. The IDF has also been able in the past to hit petrochemical plants and other industrial infrastructure deep inside Iran without the Iranians being able to mount a defense. There is no reason to believe that Iranian defenses against Israeli airstrikes are better now.
Pezeshkian believes this economic damage could so impoverish the Iranian people that their widespread disaffection could lead to the downfall of the regime. Pezeshkian has suggested that instead of hitting Israel directly, the Iranians should attack Mossad bases in neighboring Arab countries, in the expectation that such attacks will not trigger that “catastrophic response” and those “unforeseen consequences” of an Israeli counter-attack that the American government has been warning Iran about.
While the news out of Iran about a direct attack on Israel appears to be continually in a state of flux, with first the presidential side, and then the IRGC side, appearing to have won the debate before the only audience that matters: the audience that consists of one man, Ayatollah Khamenei. As of August 11, Israeli intelligence has concluded that Khamenei has made his decision; the IRGC has won the debate, and the Israelis are now bracing for a direct attack on the Jewish state within a few days.
More on this conclusion can be found here: “Israeli intel believes Iran will attack directly within days,” Jerusalem Post, August 11, 2024:
Iran might carry out an attack on Israel in the coming days, potentially even before the upcoming Thursday summit on the hostage deal negotiations, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
This represents a shift from recent assessments, which suggested that international pressure was restraining Iran from launching a direct attack against Israel.
The most recent evaluation by the Israeli intelligence community, formed within the past 24 hours, indicates that Iran has decided to directly target Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh.
The updated assessment of the Israeli intelligence community is that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh & may do within days, even before the August 15 hostage deal talks, according to 2 sources….
The Israelis are of course keenly monitoring the news from inside Iran. They are fortifying the northern front. They are readying weapons that they have never yet had to use, that not even the Americans may be aware of, and that will be an unpleasant surprise for the IRGC. In the end, they may not wait for Iran to strike, but instead engage in a pre-emptive strike themselves, beginning with the destruction of Kharg Island’s infrastructure. As they showed in early June of 1967, when in a pre-emptive strike on the Egyptian Air Force the Israelis destroyed 338 aircraft and killed 100 Egyptian pilots, Israel’s wars can be won quickly in a few hours, if the IDF has the element of surprise.
The Talmudic injunction must surely be on the minds of IDF generals right now, as they wait, and wait, and prepare their response to an Iranian strike that their intelligence services now think is almost certain. They must be thinking that it might be better to strike first, despite the predictable reaction of much of the world that has shown such a palpable want of sympathy for the Jewish state in its fight against Hamas in Gaza. That injunction is this: “If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill him first.”
Whoever wrote that was on to something.
There will be little left of Iran.