Latest ABC News Presidential Poll Oversampled Democrats by 9%

18 Comments / 18 Comments

1. “poll flagging” techniques:

   “Barrage with high frequency recent polls, if countered with pro Trump polls counter with friendy (538) averages. Avoid Brexit arguments. If target is hooked move to swing states (Fl/Pa) and declare election over. see poll elasticity folders for further statistics”

   https://twitter.com/S_Cooper0404/status/790267489552855040/photo/1

   Is this a coincidence?
   How would they know that 538 poll averages would be friendly?

2. Polling Data Real Clear Politics 10/25/2016
   Poll Date Sample MoE
   Clinton (D)

   Trump (R)

   Johnson (L)

   Stein (G)
   Spread
   RCP Average 10/13 – 10/24 — — 45.3 39.9 6.0 2.2 Clinton +5.4
   Rasmussen Reports 10/20 – 10/24 1500 LV 2.5 43 42 5 2 Clinton +1
   IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/19 – 10/24 815 LV 3.6 42 41 8 3 Clinton +1
   CNN/ORC 10/20 – 10/23 779 LV 3.5 49 44 3 2 Clinton +5
   ABC News Tracking 10/20 – 10/23 611 LV 4.5 50 38 5 2 Clinton +12
   NBC News/SM 10/17 – 10/23 32225 LV 1.0 46 41 7 3 Clinton +5
   Quinnipiac 10/17 – 10/18 1007 LV 3.1 47 40 7 1 Clinton +7
   Economist/YouGov 10/15 – 10/18 925 RV 3.9 42 38 6 1 Clinton +4
   FOX News 10/15 – 10/17 912 LV 3.0 45 39 5 3 Clinton +6
   Bloomberg 10/14 – 10/17 1006 LV 3.1 47 38 8 3 Clinton +9
   Reuters/Ipsos 10/13 – 10/17 1190 LV 3.3 42 38 6 2 Clinton +4

3. As the Dick Morris video indicates it is a matter of turnout. It always is. Some of the polls are skewing with too many Dems as he said and maybe the turnout will be less youth and African Americans.

   That is Trumps hope. Turnout machine Dems have 80% more workers on the ground to get out the vote. They also have more money for last minute advertisement.

4. Rigging the Election – Video III: Creamer Confirms Hillary Clinton Involvement
   http://projectveritasaction.com/video/rigging-election-video-iii-creamer-confirms-hillary-clinton-involvement

   note that the GOP never uses their congressional clout to get these folks indicted

5. Justice Department Extorts Companies to Fund Left-Wing Activists
   The report notes that while community organizing groups have been using aggressive, “terrorist” tactics for decades to force banks to provide funding for their operations, the Obama administration has brought the power of the federal government to bear on their behalf. Banks are threatened with lawsuits for racial discrimination based on the controversial “disparate impact” theory, and offered incentives to settle by paying left-wing groups directly, beyond the review or oversight of Congress.
   http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/10/24/report-justice-department-extorts-companies-to-fund-left-wing-activists/

   So the GOP oppostition just gave them this in return for the visas and the TPP?

6. WSJ: Terry McAuliffe Sent Big Bucks to Wife of FBI Official Involved in Clinton Email Case
   http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/10/24/wsj-terry-mcauliffe-fbi-jill-mccabe-clinton-emails/

7. Bear Klein Said:

   the biggest story to come out of the debate will be Trump’s irresponsible refusal to say whether he would accept the results of the election if he does not win.

   see how your writer propagates the dem narrative with the use of the adjective “irresponsible”? The GOP and the dem narrative are ONE. Thats the real story.

8. Bear Klein Said:

   GOP & Conservative political scientist

   the same collective that backstabbed Trump and collaborated with Obama

   your analysis states that GOP states are now leaning to the dems which is how I said Trump can lose. The GOP have sabotaged Trump with their own electorate, telling them to vote for hillary and GOP downline candidates. Like I said before the GOP can keep their TPP and continue to fire american workers with hillary as they were with Boehner and Ryan. They have been trying to sabotage trump from the beginning and they have done it on the ground in their own states according to your article. their agenda is the same as the dems, keep out Trump. Thats why Rubio told the GOP to ignore wiki leaks dumps on Clinton.

9. Concern Grows Over Soros-Linked Voting Machines

   Sixteen states will use balloting equipment provided by a company tied to the leftist billionaire

   Smartmatic had claimed it provided machines to Arizona, California, Colorado, Washington, D.C., Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin — it has since pulled that information off its website.

   Note: This story has been updated to reflect that Smartmatic removed information on its equipment’s use in U.S. elections from its website, as well as to reflect comment from the National Association of Secretaries of State that Smartmatic is not on a list of firms that provide federally-certified election systems to states.

   http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/concern-grows-over-soros-linked-voting-machines/

   I wonder why soros is investing in voter machines…. perhaps he is signaling a boom in voting machine sales?

   this story is behind…. the soros machines are all through NY known as imagecast now owned by Dominion a private corp in Canada…. it is obviously much bigger than protrayed here. One can go to state election websites and look at the counties… I did it in NYS and found that they are proliferated but now hidden as owned by dominion. They keep making transfers to avoid investigation. its rigged.

10. GOP & Conservative political scientist from the Univ. of Virginia wrote the following article analyzing the Presidential Race:

    With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than Ever
    Arizona leans HRC; McMullin rises in the west; dark red states take on lighter hue

    Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball October 20th, 2016
    facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestmail

    The mist is lifting from the map of the United States and the moment of clarity for the 2016 general election campaign has arrived. Yes, there is still uncertainty about some states in the Electoral College. But nearly all of it comes in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012 or a couple of Barack Obama states that Hillary Clinton doesn’t need to win.

    With less than three weeks to go, and all of the debates blessedly in the rearview mirror, Clinton is in a commanding position in the contest to become the 45th president.

    Clinton has taken a significant lead in national polling and is now up by about six to eight points in two-way and four-way presidential matchups in both the HuffPost Pollster and RealClearPolitics averages. Her leads in the key states that would get her to 270 votes are in some instances smaller than that, but she has a healthy advantage in more than enough states to get her to an Electoral College majority, and smaller leads in states that she doesn’t need but Trump does, including big, typically Republican-leaning prizes like Florida and North Carolina. A few Obama states seem more tenuous for Clinton, including Iowa and Ohio (the latter of which we still lean to her), but if Clinton is up by a fair amount nationally these states get harder for Trump. Clinton’s embarrassment of Electoral College riches may well produce poverty for America’s presidential billionaire.

    We doubt the third debate will change all that much. The first part unfolded along predictable partisan lines on the Supreme Court, abortion, and other topics, leading to exchanges that reinforced differences between the parties. Based on the breaking news alerts that came out from several news outlets as soon as he said it, we suspect that the biggest story to come out of the debate will be Trump’s irresponsible refusal to say whether he would accept the results of the election if he does not win. If that’s what happens, the coverage will be negative and will be just another distraction Trump can hardly afford with less than three weeks to go until Election Day.

    Our conclusion is simple. As we reassess our Electoral College ratings, we don’t think any new states are moving toward Trump at this point, and there are some surprising conservative places where he is registering very thin, soft support.

    A striking development in recent days has been the smattering of polling showing Trump with weak leads in some reliably Republican states. He’s barely ahead in some polls of Alaska, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas — states that shouldn’t be close in any competitive election. We still guess Trump will win all of them, but by significantly reduced margins from Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance. All of these states move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. The Clinton campaign is set to spend money on Indiana and Missouri, probably as more of an effort to help Democrats Evan Bayh and Jason Kander, respectively, in their Toss-up Senate races.

    But perhaps most fascinating of all is Utah, where independent conservative Evan McMullin is dedicating much time and energy. After the release of the Trump/Billy Bush video and the mass rejection of Trump by Republican leaders in the Beehive State, we moved Utah all the way from Safe Republican to Leans Republican. Since then, polls have shown a close three-way race among McMullin, Trump, and Clinton. In a state where neither major-party candidate is spending much time or money, McMullin’s cultivation of Utah (he’s a Mormon who went to Brigham Young University) could bear fruit, and he may have the most room to grow in a state where Clinton and Trump are very unpopular.

    Therefore, we have moved Utah to Toss-up. Seriously, did you ever even for a second think Utah would be a Toss-up in late October? If McMullin won Utah and secured its six electoral votes, he would be the first non-Democrat or non-Republican to win any state since the segregationist George Wallace won a handful of states and received 46 electoral votes in 1968.

    Utah is about 60% Mormon, and Trump is not the favorite of Mormons in any state, as far as we can tell. McMullin is only on the ballot in 11 states, but among those is heavily Republican Idaho, which has the nation’s second-highest percentage of Mormons (the state is about a quarter Mormon). The only recent poll there did not include McMullin, but it showed Trump at only a weak 40% of the vote, up 10 points on Clinton. McMullin is moving into Idaho as well, holding two well-attended rallies in the state over the weekend. We’re pushing Idaho from Safe Republican to Likely Republican just as a way to flag that the McMullin conservative insurgency has spread there as well. Trump is a much clearer favorite there than he is in Utah, however.

    While some typically Republican states are getting closer, the big red-state prize for Clinton is Arizona. Polls there have been close for the entire general election cycle yet Trump has generally held onto a small, persistent lead. Now, though, a few new surveys show Clinton with a small lead, and Trump may be stuck because he doesn’t have the resources to match the firepower Clinton is directing to the state. Later on Thursday, First Lady Michelle Obama is holding an Arizona event. This is deployment of arguably the campaign’s top surrogate, and Team Clinton is targeting the state in other ways.

    The Trump campaign’s Arizona crisis reminds us in some ways of how John McCain’s 2008 campaign ended up losing Indiana. Because McCain was at a resource disadvantage against Obama — just like Trump is now outmanned against Clinton — the 2008 nominee could hardly spare any resources to protect Indiana, a typically red state where Obama vastly out-organized and out-spent him. Obama was able to very narrowly flip the state. Four years later, Obama didn’t bother competing for the state, and it reverted to its Republican roots (Mitt Romney won it by about 10 points). Could Arizona work out the same way?

    This is something of a leap of faith, but we’re moving Arizona all the way from Leans Republican to Leans Democratic. If we were basing this just on polls, Toss-up would be the designation, but we’re trying to project a little bit here. We just don’t see Trump making a dramatic recovery nationally, and he may not be able to fight off the Clinton ambush in a Latino-rich state where he should be solidly ahead. Of all the states that voted for both McCain and Romney, Arizona appears to be the most vulnerable for Trump.

    We’re also moving Iowa and Maine’s Second Congressional District from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Polls aren’t necessarily driving the movement here — Trump still leads in survey averages in both places, although there is scant recent polling. But we believe that if Clinton is truly up half a dozen or more points nationally, then probably Trump no longer has an advantage in Iowa and ME-2, even though both places are demographically favorable to him (they are filled with the white, blue collar voters with whom Trump has the potential to over-perform). Ohio, too, has a lot of these voters, and public polling there has persistently shown Trump doing well (he leads by less than a point in Ohio in the RealClearPolitics average, while Clinton is up by less than two in HuffPost Pollster). As we’ve previously noted, Trump will do better in Ohio — and likely Iowa and ME-2 as well, for similar reasons — than he does nationally, but our sense is that Clinton remains a small favorite in Ohio, and most of our sources agree. Aside from Arizona, Ohio is the most tenuous Leans Democratic state on our map. If Trump recovers to some degree, these may be the first dominoes that fall to him, along with Iowa and ME-2.

    Finally, Clinton’s seeming recovery in ME-2 means that Maine’s two statewide electoral votes go from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. At the very least, we believe that Clinton’s margin in Maine’s Safe Democratic First Congressional District will be bigger than whatever the margin is in ME-2, which means she’s in a good position to carry the state overall even if Trump grabs the northern district and its electoral vote.

    Today’s changes push Clinton to 352 electoral votes, the highest we’ve had her in the whole election cycle (her previous high water-mark was 348 electoral votes).
    Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings changes
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/KDK2016101901-table1.png

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

11. New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through “Oversamples”
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

    I wonder if any of those averaged polls were doing this, if they were could this affect the averaged result?
    Is it possible for the IDB poll of a tie and the RCP average of Clinton +5.8 to both be correct, I understand the IDB got the last 3 Presidential General elections correct? they both cannot be accurate at the same time, can they?

12. PROFESSOR WHO PREDICTED LAST FIVE ELECTIONS SAYS TRUMP HAS 87% CHANCE OF WINNING

    Many Trump supporters are now claiming that the media narrative that the election result is a foregone conclusion is a trick designed to convince potential Trump voters to stay home on November 8.

    http://www.infowars.com/professor-who-predicted-last-five-elections-says-trump-has-87-chance-of-winning/

    can polls be manipulated, is there any reason for them to be manipulated, are the large media houses manipulated to which many polls are tied? Are the massive anti Israel “facts” emanating from the large media houses manipulated, or are they true, enquiring minds want to know?

    Who to beleive, can the monmouth poll of clinton +12 and the rasmussen poll of Trump +2 both be right? At least one must be wrong. Does averaging 2 wrongs make a right, or averaging a wrong and a right?

    according to the polls it is futile and I should just stay home

13. As of 9:15 AM EST 10/24/2-16
    538.com forecasting the race

    Electoral votes

    Hillary Clinton

    327.7

    Donald Trump

    209.5

    Evan McMullin

    0.7

    Gary Johnson

    0.1
    Popular vote

    Hillary Clinton

    49.1%

    Donald Trump

    43.7%

    Gary Johnson

    5.6%

    Other

    1.5%

14. Most pollsters now say Dem & Dem leaning are about 6% more than GOP leaning. Most Recent RCP polls plus average.

    RCP Average 10/13 – 10/23 — — 45.0 39.2 6.1 2.3 Clinton +5.8
    Rasmussen Reports 10/19 – 10/23 1500 LV 2.5 41 43 5 3 Trump +2
    IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/18 – 10/23 815 LV 3.6 41 41 8 4 Tie
    ABC News Tracking 10/20 – 10/22 874 LV 3.5 50 38 5 2 Clinton +12
    Quinnipiac 10/17 – 10/18 1007 LV 3.1 47 40 7 1 Clinton +7
    Economist/YouGov 10/15 – 10/18 925 RV 3.9 42 38 6 1 Clinton +4
    FOX News 10/15 – 10/17 912 LV 3.0 45 39 5 3 Clinton +6
    Bloomberg 10/14 – 10/17 1006 LV 3.1 47 38 8 3 Clinton +9
    Reuters/Ipsos 10/13 – 10/17 1190 LV 3.3 42 38 6 2 Clinton +4
    Monmouth 10/14 – 10/16 726 LV 3.6 50 38 5 2 Clinton +12

15. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent’s point. The term was popularised in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
    Lies, damned lies, and statistics – Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statisticsWikipedia

16. ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Disaster Haunts Pollsters – latimes
    articles.latimes.com › Collections
    Nov 1, 1998 – ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Disaster Haunts Pollsters. … Fifty years ago this month, all major polls predicted victory for New York Gov. Thomas Dewey over Harry Truman, the incumbent president. Reasons for that mistake are still a cause of debate.
    http://articles.latimes.com/1998/nov/01/news/mn-38174

17. Mr. Podesta cut his ties with Joule when he returned to the White House in 2014, “transferred the entirety of his holdings to his adult children” and “recused himself from all matters pertaining to Joule for the duration of his time at the White House.”

    But WikiLeaks also shows Mr. Podesta receiving a bill for legal expenses related to Leonidio’s incorporation in Delaware. We wonder how often people pay the bills to create corporations in which they have no interest.
    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/10/23/wsj-john-podesta-russians-stop-business/

    LOL, LOCK HIM UP….. I want to see Trump form a special branch to put them all in jail… no bail for traitors.

18. Now, for all of you out there who still aren’t convinced that the polls are rigged, we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in startling detail, exactly how to rig them. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on “oversamples for polling” in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.”

    I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
    The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples