Lappin obviously disagrees with those, like Grrenfield and me, who think that the Islamists pose the greater danger. The reason being that the Iranian bloc is more powerful. Yes they are. Especially if Iran gets the bomb, which sooner or later, they will get. But are they more likely to get the bomb with Assad in Syria or gone from Syria. Also he believes that a nuclear armed Iran is an existential threat to Israel whereas the Islamists represent asymmetrical war which is very difficult for Israel to deal with. I am not saying Lappin is wrong. His perspective must be acknowledged. There are many imponderables that could make a difference in the outcome. Ted Belman
Why Israelis See Shi’ite Axis as a Greater Threat Than Syrian Jihadis
By Yaakov Lappin, IPT NEWS
[..]
There is not one uniform view among Israeli defense experts over what outcome would be best for Israel, in light of the fact that no one can know with certainty what will come in Assad’s place.
Most observers agree that from Israel’s perspective, the al-Qaida-affiliated organizations in Syria pose a very real and growing threat, but one which is significantly smaller in scope and more easily contained than the threat posed by a far more powerful axis: Iran, the Assad regime, and Hizballah.
This view is based on the fact that the Syrian regime forms a central component in the Iranian bloc. It is this bloc, on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons, and with access to unconventional weapons and state-sponsored conventional weaponry, that is the No. 1 threat to Israel’s security.
Syria is the bridge connecting Tehran to Hizballah in Lebanon. Bashar Al-Assad has brought Syria closer to Iran and Hizballah, and today relies on them for his survival. Assad is facilitating the transit of advanced Iranian arms to Hizballah, as well as supplying it with Syrian-made weapons.
Syria is viewed by the Iranian regime as its critical forward base and springboard to eventual regional domination.
With Syrian help, Iran has armed Hizballah with 70-80,000 rockets that are pointed at Israeli cities. Hizballah’s firepower has the potential to paralyze the Israeli home front in a future war.
The most critical threat is the Iranian nuclear weapons program, which is edging forward all the time.
If Iran isn’t stopped, Hizballah, and other terrorist semi-states like Hamas in Gaza, could try to attack Israel while enjoying protection from an Iranian nuclear umbrella.
The same pattern can repeat itself on an even larger scale in the future. Iranian-sponsored terrorist networks might attack Western cities with impunity if they are emboldened by a nuclear-armed Iran.
The collapse of the Assad regime would deal a serious blow to Tehran and Hizballah, while significantly improving Israel’s strategic situation.
Furthermore, a Syrian regime that is only weakened by a U.S. strike, yet deterred from deploying a chemical weapon again, could in turn deter the entire Iranian network, and give Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini pause before considering further progress on his nuclear program.
According to former military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin,”Iran has all of the capabilities it needs to decide to create a nuclear weapon. The day of the decision could be tonight, when they might choose to break out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
U.S. influence and deterrence has never been more needed in the region, and it has never been more lacking.
If Iran, the world’s most radical state – whose leaders have publicly declared their desire to see Israel destroyed – gets hold of humanity’s most destructive weapons, the effect on regional security would be devastating.
Sunni Arab countries, made up of Gulf states and secular countries like Jordan and Egypt, are all deeply concerned about the potential of nuclear weapons in the hands of Shi’ite Iran.
It is impossible to divorce Syria’s use of chemical weapons from the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guards Corps is the Syrian army against the rebels, while thousands of Hizballah fighters are in Syria too, fighting alongside Assad’s forces.
The Iranian-led axis views Syria as a battleground where it can experiment with unconventional weapons and push the boundaries on international prohibitions against weapons of mass destruction.
An indecisive response to August’s chemical massacre in Damascus runs the risk of emboldening Iran and its allies. They in turn will continue in their scheme to emerge as leaders of the Muslim Middle East, acquire nuclear weapons, and confront Israel and the moderate Sunni states.
None of these concerns negate the dangers from a revitalized al-Qaida network in Syria.
Estimates vary about the number of radical Islamists among opposition fighters. The fact remains that jihadi groups are growing quickly there. They make up some of the most effective fighting units, and are thriving in the power vacuum and deadly battlegrounds of Syria.
The jihadi presence in Syria has begun infecting neighboring states too, such as Lebanon and Iraq, and is likely to spread to other territories experiencing power vacuums, like Egypt’s troubled Sinai Peninsula, while threatening stable countries such as Jordan. A spillover of terrorists to other lands is inevitable.
While the Sunni radical threat is very real, it is also limited in scope at this time, as far as Israel is concerned.
Small terrorist groups can fire rockets and mortars at Israel, and launch cross-border attacks. But this is a threat the IDF can contain, and for which it has spent many months preparing.
In contrast, a war with the Iranian axis would take on a significantly higher magnitude.
When weighing the extent of the danger presented by pro-al-Qaida groups in Syria, one might also factor in the likelihood that they will be engaged in a power struggle, sectarian warfare, and battles with more moderate elements of the Free Syrian Army for years to come.
This subsequent conflict could hamper their ability to organize serious attacks.
To be sure, the security problem posed by jihadis is no laughing matter. As they continue to raid weapons storehouses once owned by the Syrian army, Israel must think ahead about a scenario involving a raid by al-Qaida on a chemical weapons facility controlled by the Assad regime.
A reality in which al-Qaida is armed with chemical weapons can never be accepted.
But right now, Iran is just a few months away from a working nuclear weapon, should it decide to obtain one. Its ally in Damascus massacred over 1,400 civilians with sarin gas, and its ally in Lebanon stockpiles more rockets and missiles than any arsenal in the hands of most modern militaries.
For all of these reasons, a failure to deter the Iran-Syria-Hizballah axis now could result in a future security deterioration, the outcome of which would be more extensive than any immediate threat posed by jihadis in Syria.
Yaakov Lappin is the Jerusalem Post’s military and national security affairs correspondent, and author of The Virtual Caliphate (Potomac Books), which proposes that jihadis on the internet have established a virtual Islamist state.
I agree with the basic premise of this article that the Shi’ite axis is a greater threat to Israel than Syrian jihadis. However, Yaakov Lappin writes: “If Iran isn’t stopped, Hizballah, and other terrorist semi-states like Hamas in Gaza, could try to attack Israel while enjoying protection from an Iranian nuclear umbrella.”
The problem is that once Iran gets nuclear weapons Iran may, according to renowned scholars of Islam, proceed to use them undeterred. It is Iran, not Hizbollah and Hamas which presents the main threat. Why, just why, is Bernard Lewis’s warning “for people with this mindset, M.A.D. is not a constraint; it is an inducement” being disregarded even by Yaakov Lappin?
Bernard Lewis’s views on MAD
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/05/why-are-bernard-lewiss-views-on-mad.html
@ dove:
Canadian Natiional Anthemn? http://youtu.be/rzIFFKb_tU0
@ honeybee:
Cute HB. I am not as patriotic as I once was. Israel is my destiny. Canadians have grown up on too much U.S. tv and it has rubbed off….
@ dove:
Canada? http://youtu.be/mWQf13B8epw
@ honeybee:
Here’s one of your Texans – very entertaining
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=neUaSTSKFZc
dove Said:
So what!!!!!!!!!!! Tell it to the Rangers!!! Bett yet tell it to the Marines!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@ honeybee:
I don’t. You are in a unique position. Having a gentile Mother and Jewish Father different rules apply.
yamit82 Said:
Don’t you or Dove count ME in that number!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dove Said:
For Dershowitz Liberalism is Judaism.
He admits that if Israel became a truly Jewish State he could not support it. For too many American Jews who do support Israel, the support is conditional.
How Did Liberalism Become Judaism?
Study: Among Muslims, Palestinians Have Most Favorable View of Terrorism
http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/09/11/study-among-muslims-palestinians-have-most-favorable-view-of-terrorism/
Another good reason to move them out
New Olympic chief heads Arab-German trade group set up to boycott Israel
http://www.timesofisrael.com/new-olympic-chief-heads-arab-german-trade-group-set-up-to-boycott-israel/
sign of impending war?
Ted Belman Said:
25% are azeris, then there are the iranian kurds and the sunni baluchis. Add to them the usual foreign sunni jihadis massing in Iraq and syria, add to them the kurds who were supposed to leave Turkey and go fight in these wars. Then add the iranian seculars. Perhaps the plan is softe up iran first, or have an extorted “diplomatic” solution etc.
Ted Belman Said:
there is not only the scenario of winners but also of stalemates, ongoing contained internal conflict, or just weakening Assad and Hezbullah enough to reduce their ability to engage and mitigate blowback from an Iran strike(by who?) I assume there are plan B’s. there are other reasons why Israel might not be operating openly: Israel was asked to stay out like past war situations which required arab coalitions; Israel waiting to see if Obama/GCC first do their part with the jihadis neutralizing assad hezbullah blowback(making deals does not guarantee they will be performed) There is the possibility that Israel was asked to stay out, have peace talks nine months and allow the obama/gcc plan time to work including possible coalition iranian strikes or diplomacy like ghaddafi nukes. They could be told that if the coalition plan does not work then Israel can attack with US/GCC blessing and get the bunker busters. In this case israel waits to see the GCC job against the shias. In any case Israel gets a weakening of syria and hezbullah already in motion.
Ted Belman Said:
this could be the original agreement after the GCC weakens or topples syria/hezbullah or it could be a plan B if they are unable to complete the job and US is politically unable to enter. I get the feeling that they would all be happier for Israel to do the Iranian job to take the political heat and they do all the softening up. Israel would have more justification as being directly threatened by Iran, the syrian wmd danger, wmd falling into hezbulah hands.
All the possible scenarios are subject to change, failure, reneging, falling apart, betrayal, etc. However it sure looks to me like there has been many related events over the past 2 years. I believe that the faux pal state, the jordan confed talk, the GCC renewed peace-offering,egypt leashing of hamas, current negotiations are all related to this same development. I would not be surprised if the GCC realized that the persians hijacked their usual anti israel card and used it to challenge their hegemony and their very existence. these are clans and families who are educated and cavort in london while playing the game of controling their populations. They know that their future is with the west and that their preferred escape route is to the west. They cannot have an enemy of persia and israel at the same time. The oil is running out and investments, especially energy, will be their future income sources. they might be changing their tune and paradigm vs Israel and they have no particular love for the pals. Abbas is getting 4 bill + prisoners to keep relatively quiet over 9 mos. He will still have to make some token noise from time to time just as qatar just did re the settlements.
@ Ted Belman:
Dershowitz comes from the American perspective. He is a true American Defense Lawyer. Being Jewish is second to being American. Don’t forget he defends people who are accused of committing the most heinous of crimes. It is their right to a defense. Nice…but those of us who have been victimized by these heinous people deserve to be defended even more!! Justice. This type of Justice can ONLY be accomplished by G-d. ‘Revenge is mine says the Lord’. Sorry Ted….I know you are secular and probably don’t see what I see but Justice for us (The Jewish people) is a promise we need to claim.
yamit82 Said:
the penny dropped, cat is out of the bag.
yamit82 Said:
from the same article BB says:
@ Ted Belman:
The CIA and their British and French counterparts aided by the GCC instigated the civil war to overthrow Assad just like they did with Gaddafi earlier. To say that “that Obama deserves credit for wading into what he described as a “very complex” situation with respect to Syria’s civil war.” is to ignore the cause and effect of that civil war. Is Dershowitz so ignorant that he believes the opposition arose spontaneously because they wanted freedom and democracy? It was Obama who sent in the death squads from Libya and around the ME to take Assad out. The rebellion began in small border towns along the Turkish/Syrian and Jordanian/Syrian borders where they cold be aided and supplied by the CIA and their partners.
If I know these basic details certainly mr. Genius Dershowitz must as well if not then one should discount everything the jerk says as of no consequence or relevance. If he knows but still holds to his support and belief in Obama then he is brain dead and still should be ignored.
Does he still have any influence and Respect in America??? Serious question.
Ted Belman Said:
Dershowitz sounds like Bush
At the end of their first summit meeting in Slovenia Mr Bush described Mr Putin as a straightforward and trustworthy man.
The Russian leader said he regarded the US as a partner.
“I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy and we had a very good dialogue.”
“I was able to get a sense of his soul.”
Is Dershowitz as stupid as Bush??? Appears so!!
Meotti just wrote, Christians, Alawis and Jews Are to Share the Same Fate reminding us of another fallout from the fall of Assad is the massacre of Christians and Alawis in Syria..
Dershowitz to Newsmax: Israelis Have Lost Trust in America
Is he agreeing with Greenfield?
The article goes on:
How can Dershowitz say Obama doesn’t bluff given his redline bluff?
Mark Langfan agrees with you guys and Lappin. So that makes me odd man out. That’s OK. I am not married to my position. In fact I can make the same arguments as you all do and believe them. I think Bernard is on to something when he mentions the deal made in Gaza. It may well be that if the Sunni Islamists win in Syria, they will next take on Hezbollah and eradicate them. They will try to loosen the Iranian grip on Iraq. Finally they will harass the Iranian government. I doubt they will try to overthrow the regime because the people are all Shiite. All this is good for Israel. I think the GCC will focus on the Shiite enemy rather than on Israel.
So if the case can be made overwhelmingly the Israel would be better off with Assad gone, why isn’t Israel working openly or covertly to bring that about. They seem to be working to maintain the status quo, i.e. that the conflict continue but no weapons allowed to be transferred.
The other message they are stressing is that Iran should be attacked, by Israel alone if necessary. I think that if Israel attacks Iran then Syria and Hezbollah will be duty bound to attack Israel. With Israel retaliation, the Assad regime will be doomed. All this should happen in the next 12 months.
Stay tuned.
@ bernard ross:
http://www.andrewbostom.org/blog/
Please read the article under the link. There is high time for jihad-by-sword. We should not be confused about their intent whatever the umbrella is that we position them under.
monostor Said:
sorry for the confusion. In my case islamists and jihadis are the same meaning fighters under the banner of islam. Islamists can also mean non fighters like clerics who believe in jihad. In any case I believe it is all BS and that the Jihadis are paid mainly by states as proxies. They must be fed, clothed armed, transported and this costs plenty money and organization. IMHO the sunni jihadis(AQ, salafis) are paid by GCC members like saudi and qatar and the shia jihadis primarily hezbullah are paid by Iran. as far as I am concerned there is no “arab spring” there was an activating of “democratic” protesters and I believe that this is used as a template cover, a fig leaf, to bring in the GCC paid foreign mercenaries in libya and syria. I beleive the jihadi organizations are tools and vehicles of state power primarily. My perspective is not the dominant one here.
For pete’s sake, who the heck are the “islamists”? Aren’t we talking about muslims all around, sunni or shia? Aren’t all muslims suppose to perform jihad one way or the other, by word, by pen or by sword?
Ya’alon: Assad Had Better Not Get Us Involved in Syria
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon reiterates that Israel will do whatever it needs to do defend its citizens.
Ya’alon: There Are Consequences to Action, and Inaction
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said that Israel needed to be ready for any scenario that develops in Syria – no matter what the US does
I do not beleive this is a coincidence and I beleive that BB knows this. It is interesting to note that the GCC have been able to assemble large paid jihadist forces next to Israel, but not against Israel. IMHO This is not accidental and was presaged with the gaza cease fire and Israels targeting of the iranian agent Jibari for itself and for the GCC. Everything since then is related to that deal.
Related to my comment #3 in moderation
“‘You Can’t Rely on America’”
Legal expert warns Israel against relying on American support in case of trouble: “Even when they do act, they’re too late.”
‘Obama’s Attitude Towards Pollard Proves His Anti-Semitism’
Attorney Yoram Sheftel: White House announcement that Pollard won’t be released proves Obama is an anti-Semite.
Lebanon and iraq are affected by sunnis attacking Irans shia proxies. Note that the much heralded attacks on jordan do not exist. that is because jordan is a sunni arab monarchy who was invited into the GCC. it is unlikely that GCC paid jihdis will attack jordan as their attacks appear targeted. I would not be surprised to see most of the foreign Sunni jihadis in Sinai to go to Syria and perhaps the Iranian jihadis also. I believe the “spillover” of terrorists will be targeted and specific against hezbullah, shia iraq, iranian proxies in gulf nations and Iran itself. Note that only those have been targeted so far. however, if things don’t go according to plan then the proxies can be left without a rudder, but i doubt that. The author assumes that everything is organic, unrelated, coincidental and without specific plans, purposes and goals.
yamit82 Said:
I agree. Everyone fears the islamists because they envision an islamic terror state on Israels border whereas it is more likely that there would be chaos and even islamists moving on to their next paid job in iraq and Iran for the GCC. There already is an islamist controlled terror state on Israels border which is run by Iran. It is called hezbullah and they have so far proven to be the worst threat. With iran they terrorise jews worldwide, AQ has not yet done this. The state sponsored terror group is able to gain access where small terrorists do not have resources. I agree with you that Israel can deal much better with a fragmented syria with jihadis that do not enjoy state resources.
Netanyahu Links US Response in Syria to Iran
Israeli Politicians Slam America for Hesitation and Hypocrisy
Bayit Yehudi MKs attack President Obama’s decision to postpone an attack on Syria, as “Tehran opens the champagne. If anyone thinks that the President will attack Iran, based on evidence that Iran crossed the red line towards nuclear weapons, is probably hallucinating.”
‘You Can’t Rely on America’
Legal expert warns Israel against relying on American support in case of trouble: “Even when they do act, they’re too late.”
You do not account for the fact that whatever an islamist can do the state can do the same, and more. The states use the jihadis. We have seen hezbullah terrorise jews globally in the synaguogue at the behest of Iran. The syrians and iranians are not adverse to having their proxies use WMD on the Jews. We have shia jihadis in hezbullah and GCC jihadis in the others. So far I see the persian jihdis being the bigger threat. You assume that a state cannot and will not do what islamists will do. This is not an assumption based in historical evidence wrt the jews. a lone jihadi can infiltrate as an individual AND on behalf of a state. Your supposition requires the assumption of moral responsible behavior on the part of the state, based on what?
I’ll cut to the Chase. Lappin is correct and Belman Greenfield and others, Dead Wrong. I say this with certainty. With Assad gone there will be a fight to the death amongst the rats and the total breakup of what is known as Syria. Challenge is to get to the WMD’s and Missiles before anybody else gets em. I want the Russians out of Syria and as far removed from us as possible.
PA Official: Kerry ‘Guaranteed in Writing’ Return to 1967 Borders
Read more at: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/pa-official-kerry-guaranteed-in-writing-return-to-1967-borders/2013/09/11/
Russia Heats Up Cold War with Sale of Iran S-300 Missiles (Video) Iran for years has been trying to get Russia’s advanced S-300 missile system that can down commercial airplanes. Putin, feeling his oats after leading Obama by the nose, is ready to supply the goods. By: Tzvi Ben-Gedalyahu Published: September 11th, 2013 print tell a friend Russia is ready to complete a long-delayed sale to Iran of the sophisticated S-300 missile system that can intercept ballistic missiles and down airplanes. Russia is ready to complete a long-delayed sale to Iran of the sophisticated S-300 missile system that can intercept ballistic missiles and down airplanes.
Read more at: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/russia-heats-up-cold-war-with-threat-to-sell-iran-s-300-missiles/2013/09/11/