T. Belman. Bennett is hoping to achieve “goodwill and the understanding that not all issues that have divided left and right for over 70 years have to be resolved right now.” so he is asking for very little, policy or ideology wise. So what is the point of having such a government for 4 years. Better to roll the dice again and see what Bibi can pull out of the hat.
I want a right wing government, with or without Netanyahu
The prospective new heads of an unprecedentedly diverse and divided ‘unity coalition’ have an uphill battle ahead of them, and Netanyahu is busy laying traps
By HAVIV RETTIG GUR, TOI Today, 11:37 am
File: Then-finance minister Yair Lapid (left) and then-economy minister Naftali Bennett at the Manufacturers Association of Israel annual general assembly at the David Intercontinental Hotel in Tel Aviv, February 26, 2014. (Yossi Zeliger/Flash 90.)
On Wednesday, Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, received the mandate from the president granting him 28 days to try to form a government.
By Thursday, Lapid had met with Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, the potential next prime minister in a rotation pact between them. On Friday afternoon, the two men met with the leaders of New Hope, Labor, Meretz and Yisrael Beytenu.
And on Sunday Lapid and Bennett were meeting with the most sensitive potential coalition partner: Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra’am party.
Things are moving with breakneck speed, a fact that has made some Yamina and Yesh Atid officials upbeat about the new government’s prospects.
Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett (left) and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid during the swearing-in ceremony of the 24th Knesset, at the Knesset building in Jerusalem, April 6, 2021. (Marc Israel Sellem/Pool)
Yet, ironically, that speed is a function not of ease, but of desperation.
“What we don’t get done fast, won’t get done at all,” goes the refrain since Wednesday from those in the know.
A problem of numbers
A Lapid-Bennett government would straddle fault lines no government has ever before had to manage in quite the same way.
The proposed coalition has the same problem that Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu has encountered four times now in his fight across four elections to piece together a rightist coalition. Namely, without a dramatic leap of one party or another across the divide or, alternatively, the unprecedented support of Arab non-Zionist (or in some cases actively anti-Zionist) parties, the numbers just aren’t there.
Yamina MK Amichai Chikli seen at the Knesset on April 5, 2021. (Olivier Fitousi/Flash90)
Yesh Atid, Blue and White, Yamina, Labor, Yisrael Beytenu, New Hope and Meretz have 58 seats between them, three short of the narrowest of Knesset majorities. That’s before Yamina’s Amichai Chikli declared last week he wouldn’t support such a coalition.
Remove Chikli and add the four-seat Ra’am to the mix and you reach precisely 61, with not a vote to spare.
It’s a terribly difficult puzzle to piece together. Each new part Lapid or Bennett might try to add seems to compromise another.
Some in New Hope and Yamina are working hard to bring Haredi parties on board in a bid to stabilize the government and, no less important for Bennett and New Hope’s Gideon Sa’ar, strengthen its conservative wing.
But Haredi support (Shas’s nine seats and/or United Torah Judaism’s seven) would almost certainly mean the loss of Yisrael Beytenu’s seven and likely also progressive Meretz’s six.
Haredi party leaders Aryeh Deri of Shas, center, and Yaakov Litzman, left, and Moshe Gafni of United Torah Judaism, at a press conference at the Knesset in Jerusalem, May 6, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
The Arab Joint List quietly suggested to Lapid last week to drop right-wing Bennett (six seats without Chikli) and toss out the rotation idea in exchange for the support of their six seats. But without Bennett, Lapid loses Sa’ar’s six seats as well.
And therein lies the rub. It’s not at all clear that what Bennett and Lapid are trying to do is actually possible. Nothing quite like it has ever been done in Israeli politics.
In a Facebook post on Friday responding to a growing campaign of angry criticism from the right, Bennett acknowledged the delicacy of what he is trying to do.
“It’s an experiment,” he wrote, adding, “I don’t know if it’s possible…. The atmosphere is positive, but the gaps aren’t easy to bridge.”
New Hope party leader Gideon Sa’ar, center, alongside party candidates Yifat Shasha Biton, left, and Sharren Haskel, in red, at an election tour at Hatikva market in Tel Aviv on March 17, 2021. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)
Netanyahu will have his say
Of course, Netanyahu is not neutralized by Lapid receiving the mandate. Protesters have rallied outside the homes of Yamina MKs. Netanyahu, Religious Zionist leader Betzalel Smotrich and MKs from across the right are mounting an intense campaign in every media outlet and social network they can access with one simple message: Bennett is betraying the right and betraying his voters.
It’s a campaign intended to frighten Yamina and its MKs into pulling back from the unity government.
For the moment, it seems to have had the opposite effect: reminding Bennett and his colleagues what awaits them on the campaign trail should the new government fail to materialize.
Or as Bennett put it delicately on Friday, “I’m willing to go far and pay a personal political price with my ‘base’ — as long as it ends with a government.”
It’s why he’s asking for relatively little from that government — at least where policy is concerned; in terms of positions, he’s asking for no less than the premiership. “[That government’s] organizing principle will be simple,” Bennett wrote on Friday, “goodwill and the understanding that not all issues that have divided left and right for over 70 years have to be resolved right now.”
Yet the right-wing drumbeat about Bennett’s “treason” continues, and for sound tactical reasons.
If Lapid fails to form a coalition in the next 24 days, Netanyahu may have a second chance. For the 21 days that follow Lapid’s failure, the Knesset as a whole will have the mandate. Any MK who manages to obtain 61 votes can then form a coalition.
If no one manages to do so, the Knesset must by law dissolve to new elections.
Netanyahu is betting that there, at the precipice, desperate New Hope and Yamina lawmakers, watching their political careers dangling by a thread, may jump ship to him. Two or three would be enough.
Clockwise from top: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud, Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin of Likud, Interior Minister Aryeh Deri oh Shas, Housing Minister Yaakov Litzman of United Torah Judaism and UTJ MK Moshe Gafni meet on May 6, 2021. (Likud)
That’s why Bennett and Lapid believe they must work fast. Netanyahu is skilled at mobilizing the base against wayward right-wingers. There will come a point, sooner rather than later, where the personal political interests of several Yamina and New Hope MKs diverge from those of their party leaders — and all concerned are watching Netanyahu gear up to take full advantage of that moment.
Reports from sources close to Netanyahu say his political team is already hard at work on the problem, having “mapped out” so-called “paths of influence” to MKs deemed turnable at that last-minute stage of the game. Those “maps” are lists of rabbis, family members, business associates and so on, anyone who might be convinced to speak to the MKs, anyone who can turn the political pressure into closer-to-home social pressure on the MKs to save the country from a fifth election or a possible left-wing government.
Such a last-minute Netanyahu government would not mark a sudden victory or fundamental change of rules from the baseline deadlock that has afflicted Israeli politics for over two years now. It would be a narrow and exceedingly unmanageable coalition of at least six parties, possibly seven (depending in this scenario on how New Hope fragments, whether Ra’am is in, whether Religious Zionism supports the government in whole or only in part, etc.).
But it wouldn’t have to last long from Netanyahu’s perspective.
The very act of swearing it in carries one overwhelming advantage for him: it cancels the rotation agreement he signed as part of last spring’s coalition accord with Benny Gantz, under which the Blue and White leader would become prime minister in November. The new government wouldn’t need to govern, only to clear that rotation deal from the calendar, removing the sword of Damocles that hangs from Likud’s vantage point over the prospect of a fifth election.
@ peloni1986:
Read the article you linked and basically some ballots arrived late and some had to recounted.
I see no issue here that anywhere supports believing the election count was rigged or in error.
@ Bear Klein:
Perhaps my conclusions here are in error, Bear, but given the proximity of a similar practice employed in the US. I think I am correct. I have both theories and evidence, but you can let me know what your thoughts are on it, I am curious. The election results of 300 ballot boxes were ‘many hours late’ for delivery of the vote. It was claimed that the election workers at 180 polling booths ‘accidentally’ removed the top copy of their protocol pages and had to be recreated and recounted. I am assuming the protocol pages refers to a portion of the chain of custody receipt documentation, but please correct me here if I am incorrect. It does seem a very great coincidence that 180 of these polling booths just happen to make an error, and all 180 made the same error resulting in thousands of votes arriving many hours late – something my uncle would refer to as being too regularly irregular to be routine. Maybe it is a great coincidence but one I find too large to accept without greater explanation. So they started counting these ‘late arrival’ ballots at noon and by 5pm it is declared that the Muslim Brotherhood passed the threshold. And of course, the Muslim Brotherhood were not expected to place at all prior to surging ahead with these late arriving, and I would interject, very suspicious votes. The exit polling had supported the conclusion that was arrived at with the on time votes – namely, that Raam would not place – but this needed to be corrected due to these suspicious late arriving votes. [Just for clarity sake, I am not suggesting the exit polling is an accurate count, but I can not help that this is supportive of where my speculation would have taken in any case.] And where would they get the nerve to pull it off again, well the US Dems, of course. And who would the US Dems prefer to see surge into passing the threshold to enter the Knessett? That is right, the Muslim Brotherhood. All too neatly arranged, I would suggest. It is not conclusive, mind you, but these days, conclusive doesn’t count even if you have it on video tape. I should like to mention that this was first brought to my attention when Adam reported it here on Israpundit and I am most thankful for him noting this and sharing it. So, I do stand by my belief that this was rigged point in the election, but do let me know if you know more about this situation.
Here is the citation
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/SyYqSeFE00
@ Reader:
Debt is a terrible burden for anyone to deal with, having to earn twice a daily wage to only buy back one day’s losses. Such a burden, though difficult, is carried by many people. And as difficult as it is for people, it is intolerable for a country, for as a man must make up his own losses, a state will simply burden its public with greater dispossession, i.e taxes . But as with people, though it is not done without great difficulty and destructive consequences, as you noted, it is in fact done by many countries, though I would not wish this condition upon Israel to any degree, and my sarcastic comment should not be taken to suggest this is my meaning. Your comment of the US debt, of course, is correct, but only, I believe, because you used the adverb ‘currently’. Though the US holds, currently as you say, the worlds currency and has considerable power in doing so, England once held this position and lost it due to the over burdening of her economy with a terrible war, a crumbing empire and a burdensome healthcare. In any case, the US could recover from their mountain of debt, but it would take very severe economic measures to reduce it by even a measurable fraction from where it has now grown. And it grows daily still. But as with any debtor whose economy is too far beyond their means, a day of reckoning may be approaching. Many well positioned economists and financial experts(whatever that is) have heralded that the potential consequence of these unbridled spending sprees is fast approaching. I suspect, in fact, that this is another facet of the plot to destroy the US from within that has been unleashed by the Dems and their China-Class allies upon the US.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
What about their almost 50 billion $$ budget deficit which is 11-12% of their GDP (their goal is 3%)?
Are they setting themselves up for another US “loan guarantees” blackmail?
@ peloni1986:
NOT TRUE!
Currently, only the US can do this (still, not without economic consequences) because the dollar is still the world’s currency.
Any other country will get tremendous inflation and will ruin its economy.
@ greenrobot:
You can’t ask of the voters more than they can give, especially considering the manner in which (at least some) politicians and their followers (currently the “right wing” ones) act., i.e., using lies in their heavy propaganda, picketing the politicians’ houses, scaring their kids to death, issuing death threats (with impunity, I understand).
I am very much disappointed in Likud, personally.
So, I looked it up and they have the money but they just extend the last year’s budget and transfer it from whatever pocket it’s in to where it’s needed. There idea of a stable government is the ability to scratch their itch to plan everything to death, which is undoubtedly why it takes years for approved Jewish housing construction, not to mention things like street lights and plumbing to go with it, to actually happen. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/2021-defense-budget/
I’m reminded of a story from when I was about 19 and a kind of anarcho-syndicalist. I was dating an apolitical girl and trying to convince her how wonderful the future I envisioned for the country and the world be. She heard me out and then cried out, “But, I don’t wanna go to meetings all the time!”
@ Sebastien Zorn:
The great thing about a gov’t in any country, is that if they don’t have enough they will print it and charge you later…
Bear Klein Said:
Are they running out of money?
So, the election granted an overwhelming victory to the right. It, however, empowered many players committed to not sit in the same sandbox together. It is true that Netanyahu could have quit and this would have alleviated much of the silliness in this child’s drama, but surrender by Saar or Lieberman would have been just as productive in this matter and each of them received but a trifle of support that Netanyahu garnered at the polls. I believe it is unfair to assert that these moves are or Netanyahu’s doing or his fault. The electorate chose, by a very wide margin, Netanyahu to lead on the right, but it was not enough. They failed to provide him a Saar-Lieberman proof majority. There were many roads to this easy victory on the right and all three of these men could have taken us there. But of all the players acting against the interests of the Right in this matter, it is Bennett’s recklessness here that is most significant and most glaringly dangerous. And again any one of Lieberman, Saar, or Netanyahu could have stopped this dire move and they each should have. But Bennett, who Glick claims has “significant leverage against Sa’ar” chose to spurn the fight for direct elections of PM and instead to move to find a path to his own premiership with the Left – with Saar and Lieberman and Abbass. But it is Netanyahu who is responsible for this because he forced all of these men to this reckless move? I dare say that if a right wing government is the most important thing for the country and these men, why are they about to start sipping champagne with the Left and the Muslim Brotherhood as they sit across from the Right wing that they have abandoned? You can blame Netanyahu, but he stands with the Right and it is they who have moved their allegiance to Lapid and Michaeli and Horowitz. It will be telling to see how little these separatists from the right trade against their claimed ideology just to finally satiate their adolescent repulsion of Netanyahu.
As far as Lieberman’s statement as to where the guilt for this nonsense lies, he should recognize that everything the right cared to legislate was within their grasp – all of it – and while Trump was in the White House. So much could have been accomplished – such an opportunity may never come again. And the only reason that this opportunity was abandoned and why we are at this moment now will be Lieberman’s only legacy and all due to his hatred of the haredim. His generous opinion on this or really any matter, influences me less than his anti-semetic anti-heredim campaign ads which I find loathsome.
If a right wing government is the most important thing for the country one thing would have ensured a government of at least 65 right wing seats if not more without rotation.
Bibi if he would be looking for the best interests of the country would have let another Likud leader take over and become Prime Minister (Nir Barkat best choice in my view). I know that there will loyal first to Bibi supporters (Bibi over Israel supporters) who will have arguments from many angles why this not right or should not happen.
Full article at https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/305799
@ peloni1986:
Wrong country. The elections are too many but no large scale ballot stuffing has ever been shown or proven in the last elections. If you have more than theories or allegations kindly provide the proof. There some occasional irregularities but the elections have reflected the voters preferences in the last elections.
Who knows if the current media reports are correct there will a government of “Unity” and hopefully the electoral reforms will be about more than getting rid of Bibi. If they get rid of Bibi and the unity government falls apart after this it may indirectly lead to a right wing government without Bibi in a fifth election.
@ Bear Klein:
You may be correct in this, Bear, but I suspect that, if the ballot stuffers don’t play a larger role than they have in the last election, some things may change in this next election, should fortune allow such an opportunity to come about. Many of these players acting as top dog in their respective packs have chased bones of chance that will, perhaps, spoil their political outlook in a rematch. This and the obvious nature of your statement on the need of a gov’t may change some of the puzzling and arbitrary choices that the electorate has chosen to empower in each of these past elections. But I don’t downplay the need of a gov’t as it is not just desirable but quite necessary as you have suggested in your comment. But a stable gov’t that will achieve no right wing desires and is likely to be limited in its actions on both Left and Right to any benefit to the state by that exalted new political Svengali created in the well rounded personage of the Muslim Brotherhood is a greatly discomforting image to behold. Personally, I believe these moves are reckless and should not have been attempted and hopefully will fail.
Additionally, the election reform you write of will not be passed by these men who will hold the controls on legislative decisions. Should Bennett’s proposed moves with the Leftist and Non-Statist elements bear fruit, what would be their motivation in election reform. Let us imagine for just a moment the behemoth being proposed here as it is no product of the Left. It seems it will require the acquiescence of Lapid bound to the intractability of Sa’ar and coupled with the rashness of Bennett while likely being held tightly together by the toxic glue of support from the Muslim Brotherhood. Election reform is necessary but for the good of the state, but these reforms will not benefit the stability of this proposed abomination whose only success might be the stability generated by the reluctance of each of these groups to seek tacit input from the electorate for their actions. To begin with the very goal of election reform would be to stabilize the state and this is on the non-goal list for the Muslim Brotherhood. But, beyond this chubby dentists desires to hold the Jewish nation at some disadvantage, such reform would castrate a repeat of the very effort that has brought these parties the power they hold today. This broken electoral system is solely responsible for creating the loophole in the Left’s electoral failures which Saar and Bennett have seen fit to hold open as a giddy Abbass carries the Left over the victory line. This broken system will be the only way the left can hope to maintain any input into what appears to be the ever right-ward moves of the electorate. Any gov’t born from such a charming breakdown in routine adherence to the public will would be loathe to replace such a possible advantage just for the good of the nation… Or, at least, this is how I see things likely playing out if Bennett should be ruinously successful here.
Israel is in a political quagmire. Ted, just like you, I prefer a right-wing government. However, unless Bibi steps aside for another Likud leader this is not going to happen as 4 elections have proven.
So as unlikely as it is to come to actuality, a Unity government could accomplish the following things Israel needs badly:
1. Budgets for all the important areas such as Defense, Health Care, Housing
2. Election Reform (if properly done the country could return to poltical stability)
A fifth election is unlikely to solve anything and just deepen the quagmire.
The problem isn’t 5th elections. It is the voters who have the power to fix this and they don’t . They keep voting in the same people from the same parties. When the voters make up their mind to have a government they will get one. Until then it is just politicians fighting for scraps.