Peloni: Is there any greater statement of Western betrayal of Ukraine’s ‘sovereignty’ than for the West to contemplate with fork and knife in hand as they look to carve their own slice of Ukraine, sardonically some distance from the front lines. Of course, despite the calls to save Ukraine’s ‘sovereignty’, the spoils of Ukraine have always played a factor in the West’s new found obsession over the borders of this Russian border state-let.
Partition Remains a Possible Option, Just Not Kellogg’s Version
Stephen Bryen | Weapons and Strategy | Apr 14, 2025
President Trump and General Keith Kellogg, special envoy on Ukraine and Russia
Is a partition plan a realistic outcome for ending the Ukraine war. General Keith Kellogg’s proposal appears to have already encountered difficulties. However, that does not mean that some type of partition is out of the question.
Kellogg’s “plan” would carve up Ukraine into four zones. British, French, and Ukrainian troops, with the potential for others to join, would make up the first zone, western Ukraine. That zone would stretch from the Polish border to the Dnieper river. The second zone. East of the Dnieper would be under Ukrainian control, defended by Ukraine’s army. A third zone would be a buffer area with a depth of 18 miles. A fourth zone would include the Russian “occupied areas” including Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaphorize, Kherson and Crimea. The Kellogg plan does not address the actual boundaries.
The Russians have already said, referring to General Kellogg’s plan, that putting NATO or NATO-state soldiers in Ukraine is unacceptable. The Kellogg plan leaves the juridical status of the areas with Russian troops unclear and it leaves Ukraine’s army at full strength. One implication of the plan is that the war could re-start at any time.
Taking a step back, it is worth asking what Russia’s end game may be and the likelihood they will achieve it.
The first and clearly the most important point is that the Russians are attempting to restore their relationship with Washington and want to persuade President Trump to support the immediate Russian goal of legitimizing those territories Kellogg puts into the fourth zone. Were President Trump to accede to Russia’s territorial objectives, essentially granting de jure legitimacy status to the Russian territorial gains in the war, it would be highly controversial in Congress. Trump will face censure for acquiescing in an illegal invasion of Ukraine. This is more problematic than Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, where the US just left by pulling out its forces. While the Taliban took over as the pro-US Afghan government disintegrated, the US did not recognize the new government or offer any overt concessions to them. Today, the US maintains an Afghan affairs office in Doha, Qatar, but has no diplomatic relations with Afghanistan.
The Kellogg plan is not, despite his statements, like the Berlin agreement. People remember that at the end of World War II, the Allies divided Germany into four zones—the US, UK, France, and Russia. Similarly, the Allies split Berlin, Germany’s capital within the Soviet zone, into four sectors (though the US, British, and French sectors later merged).
The background of the German partitioning came about because of serious disagreements among the allies over Germany’s future, and a shift in the outlook of the US and UK who saw Germany as a geopolitical asset and the USSR as a threat.
For Ukraine, officially the conflict is between Ukraine and Russia, with third parties (especially NATO) supporting Ukraine with arms, advisers, technical support, training, supplies, financial aid and intelligence. Unlike Ukraine, the Russians have been mostly on their own, although China has helped them under the table, as has North Korea, even supplying a few thousand soldiers. Russia’s major advantage is a significant military-industrial base and a large recruitment pool for soldiers. Ukraine, on its own, would have long since disappeared: it is entirely a creature of NATO from a support and resources point of view.
Some kind of partitioning of Ukrainian territory is, however, not out of the question in the future. In fact, it could be an outcome under some circumstances that are not far-fetched by any means.
Looked at along a timeline where the negotiations either fail or drag out without resolution (which may be convenient for the United States and for the Russians, especially if Trump and Putin can’t find a mutually acceptable formula and the Zelensky government continues to act in the mode of enfant terrible), the Russians may be successful in defeating Ukraine’s army on the battlefield or, short of that dramatic result, destroy a significant part of the Ukrainian army in the field, precipitating a real crisis in Kiev. Zelensky, who cannot really negotiate with Russia (assuming he actually wanted to do so), would face an enormous risk keeping his government in Kiev. The prospect of being captured by the Russians or facing replacement by extreme nationalists in the army and intelligence services, Zelensky may find it convenient to retreat to the west, potentially establishing a Ukrainian government in Lvov, which is far enough away from Russia to be considered more or less secure. With a new government in Kiev, likely pro-Russian, Ukraine would be practically partitioned — essentially Kellogg’s Zone 1 would become the Zelensky-led Ukraine headquartered in Lvov, and Russia would control everything west of the Dnieper, even possibly Odesa, a city founded by Catherine the Great which Russia considers as Russian. If this scenario plays out, then some sort of European rescue army could plant itself in Zone 1, avoiding a total defeat for Europe, the EU and NATO.
There are many downsides to this scenario. NATO will probably remain in a part of Ukraine, and Russia will not get international recognition for its military conquests. This would reduce the US and NATO burden of militarily, economically, and politically supporting Ukraine. The US would be free to focus its attention elsewhere, mainly Asia and China, and rebuild stockpiles of weapons depleted during the Ukraine war. Europe could boast it stood by Ukraine, but without the consequence of the war spreading outside Ukraine’s borders. NATO would not lose face, nor would Washington.
There is already talk in Europe about reopening Europe (especially Germany and France) to “cheap” Russian energy. That’s a signal that the endgame is in sight. Europe cannot afford an economic collapse that would create upheaval on the continent, stimulate social revolution, and purge the ruling elites responsible for the mess. Even Europe, despite all the war talk, will have to face the necessity of adjusting its vision or face chaos.
@fquigley
Yes, I agree. It’s one thing to say that Ukraine needs to get rid of nazism, and quite another to actually do it. How do you change the hearts and minds of people? If WWII, or even the US Civil War, are any example, the country needs to be decimated, and the people (emotionally) crushed, so that they will see what their pet ideology has gotten them. Changing people’s hearts and minds is the most difficult thing.
@fquigley The Muslim Brotherhood was founded by Hassan al Banna in 1928 in Egypt, not Husseini, who was still organizing terror against Jews in the Palestine Mandate as Grand Mufti. Arafat was Husseini’s nephew and protegee in Egypt where Husseini fled after the war. Husseini was instrumental in the formation of Fatah. During the War, he was an SS General in Bosnia, Yugoslavia, not the Ukraine. He played a role in the death camps, as well, and made radio broadcasts to the Middle East.
“AI Overview
Haj Amin al-Husseini, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, had connections and interactions with the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organization. Here’s a summary of their relationship:
Early Interactions:
Al-Husseini, a prominent Arab nationalist and Muslim leader, engaged with various groups in the Middle East, including the Muslim Brotherhood, which was founded in Egypt.
In 1935, the Muslim Brotherhood sent representatives to Palestine, where they met with al-Husseini, who welcomed their support in the fight against Jewish immigration to Palestine.
World War II and Nazi Collaboration:
During World War II, al-Husseini sought support for the Arab cause from the Axis powers and collaborated with Nazi Germany.
He spent time in Nazi Germany and Italy and engaged in propaganda and recruitment activities for the German war effort, including attempts to recruit Bosnian Muslims for the Waffen-SS.
Post-War Relationship:
After escaping custody in France following the war, al-Husseini found refuge in Cairo, where he was welcomed by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Some sources suggest the Muslim Brotherhood saw al-Husseini as a powerful ally in spreading Islamic Jihadism after World War II.
It is alleged that the Brotherhood assisted al-Husseini in his escape to Egypt.
Al-Husseini’s association with the Muslim Brotherhood continued after the war, and some argue that his ideology had a lasting influence on the group.
In 1973, al-Husseini established the Islamic Congress in Gaza to expand the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. He was also among the founders of the Islamic University of Gaza in 1978.
Points of contention and controversy:
Al-Husseini’s collaboration with the Nazis, including his support for their anti-Jewish policies, is a deeply controversial aspect of his legacy.
Some scholars argue that al-Husseini’s collaboration with the Nazis and the Muslim Brotherhood’s embrace of him after the war demonstrate a shared anti-Jewish sentiment and a willingness to employ violence to achieve their goals.
Others downplay or dispute the extent and nature of the relationship between al-Husseini and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The connection between Al-Husseini’s collaboration with Nazi Germany and the Muslim Brotherhood continues to be a contentious and debated topic, particularly concerning its influence on later Islamist and Palestinian movements. “
Sebastien Zorn
You misunderstand completely my point which is also the method, or way of approaching or interpretation of these issues, that it is bound to lead to lies
I ask the most basic of questions.
What is Hamas in Gaza?
It is the branch of the Muslim Brotherhood which was actually founded by Haj Amin el Husseini who joined Hitler in Berlin to carry through the Holocaust.
What about the Ukraine Neonazis? They have a long history and I have detailed it often here. They directly joined the Nazis in the Holocaust.
As a Trotskyist I defend Israel against Hamas. As a Trotskyist I defend Russia in its war against the Neonazis in Ukraine
Both positions go together. Both positions are inseparable.
Both positions are under the independent flag of Trotskyism and our independence is unbending.
Both positions in no way imply liquidation of our Trotskyist programme.
In contrast your opportunism and inability to be principled like I am only serves to make my brain sick.
So spread your poison not at me.
All of those you have quoted are supporting the Neonazis in Ukraine.
Actually not a lot more to say on this.
@fquigley That’s just Don Quixote talk.
Sebastien Zorn
You misunderstand, I think unwittingly, every single thing I write especially on this issue
It has nothing to do, in its heart, with Putin or any leadership at present in Russia
Or in Israel.
It has everything to do with the historical reality of Trotsky and Lenin whose role was to create new scientific leadership in the world.
Do not even attempt to throw confusion on my trotskyist analysis and political message. Hamas is Nazi. As is Zelensky and the Ukrainian Fascists.
Your only role left to you Zorn is to hide that reality
Unlike you I hide nothing. If you want to discuss here the role of Putin in the world then you will have to be discussing at the same time…the role of Stalinism
And Trotskyism.
Actually you disgust me. Because you are disgusting.
You even are seeking to use this great woman fighter against the Zelensky dictatorship into your mind games against Leon Trotsky.
And you are now on the side of Hamas Antisemites obscuring truth
What a disgusting end.
https://www.algemeiner.com/2025/01/02/why-russia-has-skewed-its-population-against-israel/
“How Russia uses the Israel-Gaza Crisis in its disinformation campaign against the West”
https://icct.nl/publication/how-russia-uses-israel-gaza-crisis-its-disinformation-campaign-against-west
08 Dec 2023
Short Read by Maria Shamrai
I agree with Peloni and Raphael’s comments here, have reposted fquigley’s post of Ukrainian journalist about Zelensky’s dictatorship on FB and liked it on Israpundit but disagree with fquigley’s romanticization of Russia. Russia is not an ally of Israel though on a few occasions their national interests have intersected. America is, albeit a flawed one. I disagree with any attempt to connect the two arenas of war or to pit Israel against the U.S. except to strive for self-sufficiency and an equal partnership. If nothing else, the U.S. is Israel’s shield in the U.N. 99 percent of the time. Where is Israel getting its arms, even before Trump? But, this was interesting
“Israel joined the United States and Russia in voting against a United Nations General Assembly resolution condeming the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” March 2025
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/israels-un-vote-signals-shift-toward-russia
Russia also helped Bibi torpedo one of Obama’s parting shots at Israel but that was also exceptional. Russia and before it the Soviet Union and before it the Russian Empire have been hostile to Zionism for most of their history and supportive of Israel’s Arab Muslim enemies except for a moment here and there. Russia also alowed the IDF to take out Iranian bases in Syria and didn’t fire S400 anti-aircraft batteries in Iran. There was a hotline to coordinate and Israel lobbied the U.S. to keep its bases instead of Turkey. 20 years ago, Putin made an emotional, supportive visit to Israel. But, these were just blips. Exceptions to the rule.
And of course, WWII and 1948.
Why do you think most of the Jews left? Most of the Jews in the world lived there.
“AI Overview
+6
The Jewish population in the former Soviet Union has undergone significant changes, particularly due to post-Soviet emigration. In 1989, there were approximately 1,480,000 Jews remaining in the region, according to a Harvard University study. By 1994, this number had dropped below 800,000, notes The YIVO Encyclopedia. Mass emigration, particularly to Israel, the United States, and Germany, was the primary factor in this decline. ”
“AI Overview
+2
Approximately 80% of the world’s Jews live in Israel and the United States combined. Israel accounts for 46% of the world’s Jews, and the US accounts for 41%. Specifically, Israel has around 7.2 million Jews, and the US has about 6.3 million.
Here’s a more detailed breakdown:
Israel:
7.2 million Jews, representing approximately 46% of the global Jewish population.
United States:
6.3 million Jews, representing approximately 41% of the global Jewish population.
AI Overview
In 2020, Russia’s Jewish population was estimated at 155,000. This makes it the seventh-largest Jewish community in the world. Estimates using different criteria can range, with one estimate including a core population of 123,000, a population with Jewish parents of 189,430, and an enlarged population of 255,840
AI Overview
+4
The Jewish population in Ukraine is estimated to be around 40,000-45,000 in 2023. This represents a significant decline from its historical high, with the Jewish community being once the largest in Europe. Ukraine is now home to the fourth-largest Jewish community in Europe and the 11th-largest globally. ”
Ukraine has never voted for Israel, mostly against.
They need to leave, as well.
The moral of the tale: “Don’t crap where you sleep.”
Raphael
I agree with your plan.
But you are not explicit on the need for Russia and Putin to be victorious against Nazism.
Or how to in general defeat Fascism…on that despite the lessons from Trotsky nothing at all… lessons of the Kiev Nazis Coup
So your plan is a little wishful.
To learn from Trotsky when Hitler invaded in 1941 Trotsky had been assassinated by the Stalinists and also Trotsky had warned about the Nazi danger to Russia and the danger of Fascism
After his crimes Stalin unlike Hitler settled down to taking the direction of his Generals.
I maintain we are back to those great lessons of history
Peloni
I am thinking about what you wrote above
“Peloni: Is there any greater statement of Western betrayal of Ukraine’s ‘sovereignty’ than for the West to contemplate with fork and knife in hand as they look to carve their own slice of Ukraine, sardonically some distance from the front lines. Of course, despite the calls to save Ukraine’s ‘sovereignty’, the spoils of Ukraine have always played a factor in the West’s new found obsession over the borders of this Russian border state-let. ”
Yes that’s been the essence of the system of capitalism/Imperialism since it came on earth, as Marx and Lenin taught.
By now I take THAT for granted
But the ISSUE is the issue of Fascism in Ukraine and how it has MESHED with the capitalist pathways in (can I say the west) especially of most of Europe and the Democrats.
Trump to me appears INDECISIVE and is betraying Vladimir Putin and the Russian army youth.
McGregor emphasis on his indecisive nature. He is correct.
This is the same issue as Hamas though, which is also why I am very critical of McGregor too and all of those many voices on the internet.
The main thing that my personal Trotskyist Marxist view is that the Fascism in Ukraine is in its essence the same as that of Islam of Iran and Hamas.
What I have stated there leads me into conflict with the leftist Antisemitism
As well as the capitalism you alluded to which we see in front of us which the MAGA movement tried to oppose, but are dependent on the inadequate Trump
Of course my difference with you on Climate are unresolved
I am so sick of morons and warmongers trying to rearrange the world to their own liking, with no regard for the rights of indigenous groups and the moral necessity of preventing future wars.
That said, here is how the Ukraine war should be resolved:
1. The areas of Ukraine with Russian speaking populations should be re-patriated to Russia. That would include the four areas of Ukraine that are currently contested, plus a bit more territory. Ukraine has been subjugating and oppressing these people long enough.
2. Zelensky must go. Peace is not possible while he, and his faction, remain in power. They will not negotiate, or if they do, they have already shown that they cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith.
3. The Bandera movement in Ukraine must be repudiated and prevented from having any political influence in post-war Ukraine.
4. Ukraine must constitutionally commit to neutrality and disarmament, vowing to never develop or allow the deployment of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction on its territory.
5. NATO must commit, as part of its charter, not to deploy offensive weapons in any country that borders the Russia or Belarus.
I suspect that these conditions will in fact be realized when the war is over. If not, Ukraine will continue to be a hot spot, and “cold war” will once again return to Europe, at their behest, not the Russians.
This is directly linked to the survival of Israel
Zelensky has been used by the Neonazis as a figure head saying that since Zelensky is Jewish then , they say, how could these Ukrainian Nazis possibly be involved in the Holocaust.
Mossad should have put Zelensky out of commission and should have made clear to the world why that was a necessary step to defend the Jewish nation
That is step 1.
Next step is for Israel and Jews to be celebrating every gain that Russia makes on the battlefield.
Trump needs to come off the fence. It follows that all on israpundit top down must reassess urgently!
Silence on that is not an option.