Peloni: It must be recalled that Europe, not America, will feel the greater effects of the NATO overreach in Ukraine. The faux threat from Russia on the eve of the Ukraine war was always avoidable, even after the war began, yet the very real slaughter which came as a result of NATO pursuing its bad faith negotiations crafted in the guise of the Minsk Accords will have longstanding implications for the NATO members, with its American member now being even less charmed with its oversized role in the alliance and thus likely leaving its European members with a very real potential of facing any real threat in the future on their own.
No negotiations, no peace, but what about NATO?
Kamala HarrisPresidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris says she will not talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
Ukraine’s war, which is NATO’s war, is going badly. NATO’s future is in doubt.
Meanwhile Zelensky, who was just forced to cancel a forthcoming “peace summit” (officially postponed to a future time) because no one wanted to come, has made it clear he will not negotiate with Moscow under any circumstances.
Zelensky understands that any concession he might make to Russia would be fatal for him. As his army is beginning to disintegrate, Zelensky is relying on neo-Nazi elite brigades for his protection.
Because Zelensky is unlikely to move, various “peace formulas” being floated in Europe won’t change anything or influence the outcome.
Last “Peace Summit”
The basic Euro-idea is to try and freeze the conflict, concede that Russia will continue to occupy parts of Ukraine for now, and bring Ukraine into NATO or, if that isn’t possible, some sort of security guarantees for the future. Under this approach, Ukraine could rebuild its military, gets its economy back on track, and confront the Russians some years in the future when the prospects are better.
The Russians don’t have to reject the latest idea because, thanks to Zelensky, it is DOA (Dead on Arrival). Of course that won’t stop Europe and some in Washington for pushing the proposal anyway, while shoveling more arms to Ukraine, hoping the Ukrainians can hold out until well after the US elections. Should Ukraine go belly up before the end of October, it would be chaos for the Democrats in the US and also would likely collapse the German government, perhaps even the shaky French regime.
Most experts don’t think that will happen. But most experts often are wrong.
Meanwhile, for their part the Russians won’t accept a cease fire in place since it offers them nothing. The Russians clearly want Ukraine to be demilitarized and neutral, and probably won’t accept NATO-led security guarantees (although Russian public statements are ambiguous). Officially Russia wants Luhansk, Donbas, Zaphorize, and the Crimea recognized (all have been annexed to Russia), and it demands protection of Russian-speakers in Ukraine.
There is little or no prospect that Russia’s demands will be met, neither by the current Ukrainian government or by most NATO countries. For that reason, the Zelensky hard line, so long as it lasts, assures that Russia’s real goal will be to replace Ukraine’s government altogether with one favorable to Russia and willing to agree to Moscow’s claims.
If the Russians can pull it off, then NATO will have to retrench, something it must do anyway if the alliance is to retain any credibility. Unfortunately, despite a lot of bravado talk, the chance to revitalize NATO as a military alliance, does not look promising.
There are profound reasons why NATO is floundering, despite appearances. The biggest reason of all is that NATO has been expanding without paying attention to its need to be a credible defensive alliance.
Ukraine is part of that expansion, and under US and EU pressure, the expansion is spreading to Central Asia, as far as Armenia.
A greater NATO is an alliance without defensible borders, as is increasingly obvious. That is why Ukraine is getting chewed up, despite emptying western arsenals to try and save it. The Russians won’t neglect Central Asia or Armenia when the time comes.
It is regrettable that NATO has talked itself into this mess. NATO today is about expansion, not defense. When it comes to defense, NATO is utterly reliant on the United States, and America’s commitment to send its army, air force and Navy to defend NATO expansion.
NATO expansion as a policy requires vast military commitments by America’s allies. That won’t happen. It is fair to ask, what does the US gain by supporting an expansionist NATO policy? There is growing unease in the United States about the hundreds of billions wasted on Ukraine, with no settlement now possible. At some point that policy will result in a major walk-back from the NATO alliance, and from any commitment to defend Europe when it really does little to defend itself.
@Reader
Interesting comment.
I have raised this point before, but to be honest, Zelensky’s fate is of little interest to me, and whether he lives or dies, he will live or die as an immensely wealthy individual while maintaining his role of despot over the poorest nation in Europe. What does concern me, is the consequence of Zelensky’s skulldugery will have upon the Jewish community which is in Ukraine. Afterall, this is Ukraine which we are speaking about.
It’s pretty clear, Peloni: Putin expressly wants a, as in ONE world order, not many. The only thing he wants different from what we have now, is who the dominant players are — and he specifically wants to ensure that Israel is NOT one of them.
He’s been clear, and I’ve been clear. Putin simlply doesn’t like Israel, and doesn’t like me; and since you are part of both groups, it’s strange that you continue to fawn after him.
@Adam D
NATO doesn’t want Ukraine because historically the role assigned to Ukraine by the West is to be a battering ram against Russia and then to die together with Russia and Belarus.
Ukraine is a dying country and its land is being bought up by the Western corporations.
Historically, Ukraine doesn’t do well without Russia – it ends up with violence, anarchy, and being conquered by one country after another.
The fools in Ukraine don’t realize that the West thinks of them as Untermenschen whose lives are expendable.
Basically, this is a continuation of WWII which had 2 aims – to kill all the Jews and to conquer “Eurasia”.
If and when the Ukrainians realize the facts stated here, Zelensky may end up like Mussolini.
I have to agree, the ship of state is headed for the rocks. when I was a child, we feared the Russians were going to destroy USA. It seems to me the Biden Harris regime and the U.S. congress is going to do it before the Russians get a Wack at us. Maybe, the Russians will come help us / save us from our own government?
@Michael
This is not what Putin said, and if you read the quote you cited you will see that this is true. He calls for an end of American Hegemony and for the creation of a multipolar world, something which was made both necessary and possible for Russia to achieve due to the American overreach in Ukraine. In fact, in an attempt to forestall the demise of American hegemony, the feckless rule of the authoritarians in Washington have accelerated the move towards multipolarity and the increasing demise of the American Empire system. Notably, Russia should have been embraced by the US in a pan-European security arrangement which included them rather than being the focus of a NATO led security arrangement which isolated them. Hence, the consequences for both the US and Israel are importantly affected by the policy blunders of the past 30yrs emanating from an ever more hawkish Washington view of Russia, and we are experiencing the consequences of these blunders today. How bad these consequences might be and how permanent will be determined if Trump is elected, but failing this, the Americans ship of state is being sailed across the cliffs of insanity and the outcome of such poor governance will have a devastating effect on both the US and all who might still amusingly rely upon her as a source of world stability.
I agree with your tenor, Adam. For my part, I think the opposite of Occam’s Razer is Putin policy. He takes a paragraph to express a morsel of facts, because every fact is embellished with a hundred lies.
Peloni and others, before I get dragged once again down a rabbit trail of accusations, I have run out of sympathy for the Ukraine pundits (such as the Times of London). They have flown their Globalist colors too much, and insulted Donald Trump and MAGA too much. That said, Putin’s rap sheet is plain to see:
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2024/10/11/putin-reaffirms-russias-commitment-iran-against-israel/
Note that Putin is not against the New World Order; he’s just opposed to Israelis and Americans being part of it.
These statements are not only false, but the exact reverse of the truth.
Russia invaded Ukraine. NATO did not invade Russia. Zelensky says that he does want a negotiated settlement of the conflict. As a result, his domestic opponents within Ukraine accuse him of being an appeaser. NATO never conducted an aggressive expansion policy, but only reluctantly agreed to admit several East European countries into the alliance after their governments threatened to impose trade embargoes on the Western members of the alliance unless they were admitted to it. That could have severely damaged the economy of Western Europe, since the eastern European countries produce some of the mineral and agricultural resources that Western Europe needs. Several years went by between the admission of each new state to the alliance as the Western European members did everything they could to stall the admission of new states.
It has been the consistent policy of the alliance, since 1991, that there is no possibility of the Ukraine being admitted as a NATO member in the foreseeable future. This is still the position of the entire NATO alliance. The head of the NATO central organization (the one just appointed a few weeks ago) says that Ukraine cannot even be considered as a member until it has a stable constitution that is obeyed by the government,, holds genuinely free and fair elections on a regular basis, and above all, cleans up corruption. Zelensky and all of the major political leaders in Ukraine, whether supporters of the Zelensky government or in opposition, have publicly admitted that Ukraine is a long way from achieving these goals. So has Zelensky himself. It is true that the Ukrainian government has repeatedly applied for membership in NATO, including only a few weeks ago. But Zelensky has publicly admitted in his speeches to the Ukrainian people that he does not expect Ukraine’s application to accepted in the foreseeable future.