Speaking at a private meeting this week, Jordan’s King Abdullah warned that he had “bargaining chips” to use against the Muslim Brotherhood, which he denounced as a “new extremist alliance” in the Arab world. The news siteAI-Monitor today translates a report from al-Hayat, citing sources from the meeting. “Rhe Jordanian monarch was full of reproach for Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, who hails from the Muslim Brotherhood,” al-Hayat wrote. “The king added that the Egyptian leadership had ‘marginalized the Jordanian role during the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to stop the recent aggression on the Gaza Strip.’”
The Muslim Brotherhood has targeted Jordan’s monarchy as the next domino to fall after Egypt. At the Dec. 10 meeting, King Abdullah accused Egypt of economic sabotage.
The king said that “Jordan was severely damaged as a result of frequent interruptions of Egyptian natural gas, which cost the state treasury about 5 billion Jordanian dinars [$7.04 billion],” stressing that the interruption of gas ”is the real reason behind the economic crisis plaguing the country.”
Under previous agreements with the Egyptian authorities, Jordan used to import 80% of its gas needs for the production of electricity, which equates to a daily amount of about 6.8 million cubic meters of imported gas. However, the pipeline which supplies gas to Jordan and Israel was subsequently the target of frequent bombings.
The Jordanian monarch warned that his country would retaliate:
King Abdullah II said that “Amman has bargaining chips through which it can send messages to Cairo, including the fact that 500,000 Egyptians are working in Jordan. Moreover, the kingdom is the only passageway for Egyptian vegetables being exported to Iraq, and tens of thousands of Egyptians working in the Gulf states are using the Nuweiba-Aqaba waterway in their travels.”
…Other official sources talked about the arrest of thousands of Egyptian workers who have breached the conditions of their residency in the past two weeks, as well as the deportation of about 1,900 of them to Egypt, according to Jordanian Minister of Labor Nidal Qatamin. He said his country is not targeting Egyptian laborers, saying that the deportation decisions resulted from “violations of the usual procedures and applicable laws.” Remarkably, according to official sources, of the 500,000 Egyptians working in Jordan, approximately 320,000 have violated the conditions of their residency.
It is unlikely that Jordan would take on Egypt without strong backing from Saudi Arabia. A further 1.7 million Egyptians work in Saudi Arabia and an additional 500,000 in Kuwait. The Egyptian diaspora is the last thing holding up Egypt’s economy. Workers’ remittances stood at $18 billion in 2010, according to the World Bank, or about half of Egypt’s present $36 billion trade deficit. The expulsion of Egyptian workers from the Arab monarchies would have catastrophic impact on the disintegrating Egyptian economy. Two million Egyptians worked in Libya before the civil war, but many fled the country earlier this year.
As it is, President Morsi was forced to postpone negotiations on a proposed $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, after scrapping a proposed tax increase that the IMF considered a condition for the package. With a government budget deficit at 11% of GDP and a trade deficit at 16% of GDP, Egypt must cut expenditures to survive financially. No Egyptian government, though, appears capable of persuading a population half of which lives on less than $2 a day to accept austerity.
GO FOR IT.
@ yamit82:
Sounds like the Tex/Mex border. We use to cross all the time to shop, buy gas,eat and visit, but now much to dangerous,see”No Contry for Old Men?.
As for OHB and F16s [ passive/aggressive] what did you expect from a man who crosses his legs.
@ Dean:
I hope to see the Hope Diamond under the xmas tree!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@ yamit82:
IT IS VERY BELIEVABLE–THE ANTI-SEMITE BARACK OBAMA WOULD ACT TO HARM ISRAEL–AND HE IS GOING TO GET FAR WORSE–AS HE WANTS TO SEE ISRAEL DESTROYED!
yamit82 Said:
His wife a Pali and his son, Blood ties?
Abbas said:
Perhaps the creation at the UN enables this to go forward
yamit82 Said:
They can be under Jordanian control without giving citizenship in Jordan. However, if the king is losing leverage he might be able to gain by alliance with the largest population in his country over time. Things can change and so doe political alliances, you have seen change in Israeli Pal relations. With Abdullahs wife and son “blood ties” there can be a basis for his son to be a future king of the pals in a constitutional monarchy. The Bedouins alone are unlikely to be enough for a future. As you said:
yamit82 Said:
Based on current events what is the most likely course of events that will take place as opposed to what we would like to take place?
@ Bernard Ross:
You have a great imagination but Arabs hate Bedouins and everybody hates the so called Palis. The West Bank Arabs hate the Gazans and visa versa.
The Jordanian Monarchy is kept in power because the Palis so far don’t want his head yet. Even the loyal Bedouins are not so loyal to this King. His mother being a non Arab non Bedouin British subject and his wife being a Pali. Blood ties do matter in this part of the world.
No Pali leader wants a state where he will rule as a mayor or govenor and be responsible for mundane duties like sewers and road repairs, garbage removal etc. The kleptocracy they have created require maintaining the current status quo because once they are deemed to have achieved their stated public aims the world will dump them and they will disintegrate via civil war and conflict with Israel. A third option is also viable and that is they can be taken over by more powerful neighbors like Egypt, a reconstituted Syria with or without Assad and even Iraq down the road.
Here is a picture. Between 67 and 91 except for the first intifada Jews and Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank had pretty good relations and there was real prosperity in the territories including Sinai before we gave it away. I did much of my shopping in Rafiach, Khan Yunis and Gaza City.
I used their mechanics for car repair even used their barbers. We ate in Arab restaurants and employed them. I employed several and had an Arab maid. We paid them a decent wage was invited to their homes and they came to ours and our celebrations. When in Yamit I did some of my reserve duty in Gaza and I drove my own private car to my duty assignment. Not once but many times I would drive around Gaza at midnight even 2am.
The same can be said of our general relationships with local Arabs in the West Bank. When Israel bought Arafat into Gaza everything changed.
Picture the Arab population today is almost 50% under the age of 16. They have been totally radicalized and indoctrinated, they have no fear as their parents had of the IDF or even other Arabs. While the Arabs never loved us they feared us and as long as they prospered they were controllable which is not possible today.
I can see no workable scenario that can leave this Arab population intact under our control and sovereignty. I can say the same about Jordan. The King will never return civil Jordanian rights to the palis and if he does he is dead. Every Arab in the West Bank is armed and an M16 or Ak47 costs them as much as a house.
The Saudis have never met their financial pledges to the Palis and Abbas is totally broke and pleading with his brother Arabs to give big bucks
Abbas urges Arab aid for struggling Palestinians
Associated Press – Sun, Dec 9, 2012
DOHA, Qatar (AP) — The Palestinian president is urging Arab nations to provide major financial assistance to cover a new monthly $100 million budgetary shortfall after U.N. recognition of Palestinian claims to statehood — result of a punitive Israeli measure.
Mahmoud Abbas told Arab League officials Sunday in Qatar that his Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is “collapsing” under financial strain. Abbas faces added pressures after rival Hamas in Gaza received major pledges of aid from Qatar’s emir in October.
Israel halted the tax transfer funds — customs duties collected on behalf of Palestinians — after last month’s U.N. vote to recognize a Palestinian state in territories captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war.
Last week, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad called on Arab countries to send $240 million a month.
Although there were no public promises of funds at the Doha meeting, Palestinian officials said they were encouraged by Arab League plans to create a special committee to help guide future negotiations with Israel. The move appeared as a direct swipe at the failure by the so-called Quartet of Mideast mediators — the U.S., UN, European Union and Russia — to move Israeli-Palestinian peace talks ahead and rein in Israeli plans to expand settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. 🙂
I wonder with his complaints about Egypt’s natural gas if he (the King) is working on getting some of the Tamar gas, which is supposed to come on-line in 3 months.
the JOrdanian egyptian argument may be a street show to condition the gaza and west bank street to separation by appearing to create a fake conflict whereby the 2 pal entities can separate. Hams will move to MB/Egypt & development by Qatar and PA will move to Jordan/Saudi money and development. Perhaps it will be a faux argument whereby Jordan leaves egypt gas in diplomatic huff and gets supplied by Israel or saudi.
Taken together with PA mulling Jordan federation I see the following possibility: Abdullah courts the pals to form a secular base against islamists; Uses wife and son to remain as a constitutional monarchy with pal support; Moves towards enfranchising more Pals in Jordan; reinstates Jordanian citizenship to west banker arabs; OOdles of $$$ pour into Jordan: Jordan is economic magnet for pals; a confederation allows the Pals to give up more territory without Abbas being assassinated; Israel supplies JOrdan natural gas from its fields and helps Jordan develop their shale fields; things happen organically according to level of success. Perhaps the Pal non-state is a bone of pride to soften street anger at weaning off Israel. Egypt/Qatar/Hamas and Saudi/abdullah/PA. (Saudi had asked Jordan to join regional military pact with GCC). This would also explain Israels behavior. Just a thought!
Abbas mulls forming confederation with Jordan
I have mentioned this a number of times: gaza & egypt and Jordan & PA
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=295837
My talkback under moderation. Check the news for what happened in a US classroom. I also included an article about how easily it will be to build a terrifying weapon – by anybody. Even spam filter got freaked out.
An entire class of little children just gunned down in Connecticut. – As the world unravels, with Westerners drugged up, angry, and ignorant, even grandma nextdoor will be able to prepare a nuclear bomb in her kitchen:
Unbelievable!!!
Obama to start sending US F-16 fighter jets to Egypt – on Israel’s election-day
DEBKAfile Special Report December 11, 2012,
The Obama administration took a careful look at the political calendar before announcing that the first four F-16 fighter planes – of the 20 approved in a $1 billion US foreign aid package to Egypt – would be delivered Jan. 22.
The announcement came Tuesday, Dec. 11, as Cairo and other Egyptian towns were set for massive rival demonstrations for and against President Mohamed Morsi’s decision to hold a referendum on a pro-Islamist constitution Saturday. It therefore came in for rising criticism in Washington of the wisdom of sending the jets to an unstable Egypt in the grip of a strong political confrontation. MORE
I really like ‘Spengler’ (Goldman)
Saw this today it’s a year old but still relevant.
David Goldman aka Spengler: Islamic Civilization is Dying
“Does the impending collapse of the nation-states of the Middle East ruled by plutocrats, dictators and mullahs offer an opportunity for the West? Unfortunately not, according to Goldman.
The hard truth is that countries that feel they have no future will take extreme steps because they have nothing to lose. Tehran does not behave rationally, at least not in the Western sense, and poses an existential threat to Israel; it will use its nuclear weapons once they are developed.
Goldman’s advice then is to bomb Iran and take out its nuclear capability, despite the collateral damage that will likely ensue. In countries roiled by the Arab uprisings which are slipping into Islamist hands, hostile to U.S. interests, American policy should be to destabilize them through various measures.”
“The Great Debate: David Goldman vs. Robert Spencer” on The Jamie Glazov
“No Egyptian government, though, appears capable of persuading a population half of which lives on less than $2 a day to accept austerity.”: Well isn’t that the truth. Maybe the arrogant, hairy Muslim Brotherhood leader and his backers from the Obama administration should concentrate on feeding, housing and employing Egyptians rather than spending their time on promoting Islamic-ingrained hate, meddling via support of terrorist groups, anti-Semitism, despotism, totalitarianism, and ideologies straight from the dark ages. What a bunch of fascist a-holes who make up the Muslim Brotherhood (there in Egypt and here in North America) and so is their ardent backer, Obama – I think that Obama is a full fledged member judging by his words and deeds (supplying advanced jets and munitions to Egypt and Turkey, supporting Al Qaeda in Syria and Libya, standing by as his diplomatic staff are slaughtered by terrorists in Libya).