Peloni: Mike explains to Gadi that all that we have been told about the pre-emptive attack does not fit with the facts that we know. He and Gadi discuss what Mike finds to be a more reasonable hypothesis beginning at 20:44 and lasts for about twenty minutes. I was listening to a live Twitter Space while the attack took place, and it was remarked at the time that the limited casualties which were reported during Israel’s preemptive attack, about a half dozen, did not make sense and that this number should be expected to significantly increase after the fog of war dissipated. Well, that number didn’t change, which draws Mike to consider other potential realities than the narrative which is being reported in the press and is being put forward by Israel’s leadership.
@Peloni many of the Hezis launchers are set off remotely is one plausible explanation. Also who did the casualty count on Hezi deaths (Nasrallah)? You think the counts are accurate based on what information?
A USA general I trust very much had a very analysis of the situation as I do (during a FoxNews interview).
Suggest you read the following JPost article on the subject. It provides a good overview.
The IDF intelligence and IAF did a great job! Sometimes we have to accept that we do have successes and this was a battle won!!!
@Bear
Take what you just described and try to make sense of Hezbollah only losing 7 people. In a massive, preemptive strike on missile launchers which had missiles and fuel on the ground, just minutes before launch time, and only 7 people died at a combined 150 strike targets. I would argue that this is quite a neat trick.
The only reality in which Israel could kill only 7 people while destroying the missiles as they were being prepped for launch is if someone is lying about either hitting the missiles while they were being launched or the number of dead who died. Recall that we are told that some 150 launchers were taken out simultaneously without killing so many people as Hezbollah killed when they hit a soccer field of children with a single missile. It does sound somewhat fantastical to believe this. And let us not forget that the rocket experts who are responsible for manning and loading, aiming and handling the rockets were themselves an important asset to target as well. Hence it wouldn’t even be useful for Israel to kill so few people even if they could control such an outcome, which of course they could not.
The primary explosions should have set-off secondary explosions from the rockets and fuel, making it nearly impossible to believe that only 7 people were killed. So either Hezbollah is uniquely in a state of extensive self denial about the hundreds (if not more) of missile dead technicians, or some deal was struck via the Americans as Mike contends.
Or perhaps you or someone else has an alternate explanation?
Preventive Israeli strike showed what they can do when they put 100 planes in the air simultaneously.
Each plane has 10 missiles that can hit 10 different targets or 1000 different targets at once. IAF did that and seriously degraded the Hezi attack and damaged military targets.
Within about a week or so, tops 2 weeks Israel could set Lebanon back to the
pre-industrial age. They the Hezis recognized that and backed off.
To finish the job the IDF would have to go in the ground which politically is difficult given the Biden Administration position on that.
My guess is that the Biden adminisration orchestrated the stand down for all.
So Iran attacks Israel with lots of missiles that are conveyed up front. Israel shoots most of them down with some providential help from 3 UNSC members. Then Israel takes out launchers which have not been loaded in Lebanon. It sounds like the same old, same old pounding sand.
The mere fact that Israel didn’t follow up with more attacks tells you what you want to know. Israel doesn’t want to escalate at this time.
So why has Hezbollah taken some steps back?
So why has Hrzbollah taken some steps back?