Israel’s New Strategy of Bringing Peace: Targeted Killing

T. Belman.  Mudar Zahran was right on the money in his article Why did the Islamic Jihad agree to a Ceasefire so quickly? which I published 5 days earlier. He also wrote Who Will Succeed Mahmoud Abbas as the Palestinian President?

On intelligence matters, he is way ahead of the curve.

JAFAJ 15.8.22

1. Summary: On August 5, 2022, Israel stepped into the ring and delivered a one-two punch to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Gaza killing both of its two top military leaders, leaving the terror group leaderless in the middle of a confrontation with Israel. This led to a rapid ceasefire. A day after, Israel stepped up operations by killing three militants in Nablus in the West Bank belonging to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, a Fattah-PLO faction. This escalation of targeted killing is a translation of Israel’s new strategy of targeting terror leaders as pre-emptive countermeasures for the excepted regional unrest, such as potential military confrontations with either Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iran or a regime change in either Jordan or the Palestinian Authority or both.

Unprecedented Brazenness

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2. Israel has recently stepped up its operations against Palestinian militant leaders. Their actions started on August 5, 2022, with the targeted killing of Tayesser Al-Rajabi, the most senior militant commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and “Commander of the Northern District”. This resulted in immediate confrontations between PIJ and Israel. As an added surprise, within 48 hours after the start of the fighting, Israel killed PIJ’s second in command – Khaled Mansour. This one-two punch left the PIJ leaderless and rudderless in the middle of serious fighting with no active military commander in charge, and their political leaders operating as mere spokespersons. This forced a rapid ceasefire. In related actions, Israel stepped up operations by killing three Palestinian militants in the city of Nablus within 24 hours of the ceasefire taking effect. One of those killed was Ibrahim Al-Nabulsi, one of the most effective and vicious field commanders of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (AMB).

3. The common denominator between Israel’s twin actions in Gaza and the West Bank is that they all came as a surprise. Israel has always been very conservative with its use of targeted killing(s) and limiting it to very active terrorists or to conflict times. This policy has been sustained in the name of keeping the peace and not provoking the terror groups further and also because of the overriding fear that killed terror leaders may (will) be replaced by even more radical leaders and more bloodshed will ensue.

4. In addition, Israel historically carries out targeted killing amid a war or in reaction to terror attacks. Israel seldom carries those out unprovoked. In the cases presented here, Israel was not in an ongoing military engagement with either the PIJ or the AMB. Further, the AMB is a part of the PLO which dominates the Palestinian Authority and is known for closely cooperating with Israel on security issues and countering terrorism, which has made Israel’s actions more questionable in the eyes of many.

5. Israel’s brazen actions may sound like “newfound courage” by the current Israeli Prime Minister Lapid. Nonetheless, JaFaJ intelligence has confirmed that Israel took these actions upon solid information that a major series of changes will begin to sweep the area in the foreseen future. An American intelligence source informed JaFaJ: “The Israelis are preparing for what’s coming, the tide is high, and changes shall not spare Jordan, Lebanon or the West Bank and may go as far as Iran.”

A New Strategy, Not Just Tactic
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6. JaFaJ intelligence sources have confirmed that Israel’s latest attacks were the “launch of a new strategy of pre-emptive strikes”. The source continued by saying that they have “been promoted by changes expected in the foreseen future”. A senior Israeli source explained to JaFaJ, “Our region is rapidly changing, and we see four potential changes as our most alarming challenges. They are:

1. another confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon;
2. a strike made on Iran by either us or the Americans which will send shocks across the regions;
3. a regime change in Jordan; and/or
4. a regime change in the [Palestinian] territories”.
5. The source added, “We have confirmed that all four challenges might happen in the foreseen future, and we have to prepare and leave zero margins for luck”.

7. An Egyptian intelligence asset told JaFaJ, “Israel wants to avoid trouble in the future”. The source added, “Iran is likely to get hit one way or another, and Israel cannot afford to have the Islamic Jihad in Gaza launching a proxy war on Israel”. The source continued by saying that “the minute Tayseer Al-Jabaari and his follower Mansour were killed, Iran came to us [Egyptians] begging for a solution, before this, the Iranians were arrogant and refused to listen.” [COMMENT: The Islamic Jihad is considered Iran’s militant faction in Gaza, and is smaller in personnel and equipment than Hamas. Hamas has been committed to a truce with Israel since June 2021 and has been distancing itself from Iran thanks to pressure from Hamas’s key benefactor – Qatar. END COMMENT]

8. A Jordanian military intelligence general reported to JaFaJ that, “Israel is getting rid of the key trouble makers in the West Bank, and instead of launching wars and confrontations, they are going after the leading bad actors.” The source added, “to be honest, this is what we would do if we were in the Israelis’ shoes, and they should have done this long ago, instead of destroying their image with checkpoints and multiple wars in which many civilians were killed”.

9. The Jordanian general added that Ibrahim Nabulsi, the militant killed by Israel, was “a very bad actor and a lead trouble maker”. The general added that “Even though he was a member of Fattah, he was also connected to Hamas and ideologically aligned with them. That is because the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade is not made up strictly of Fattah members – there are militants from all factions in their ranks”. The general continued by saying, “Al-Nabulsi has become a major trouble maker. The young man twice escaped an Israeli assassination, and never quit showing off. He was so brazen that he appeared at weddings and public events, even going as far as to randomly shoot at Israeli soldiers and settlers”. The source added that “he was a mastermind, a leader, an organizer and, in the opinion of our psychological profilers, a psychopath that leads and manipulates others”. [COMMENT: The Jordanian intelligence was one of the first Arab security agencies to adopt the profiling methods developed by the FBI, several Jordanian intelligence officers received training on profiling in the United States in the early to mid-1990s. END COMMENT]

10. The Jordanian source then explained what he believed Israel’s biggest fears are, and started with the largest: “The creation of a power vacuum in the West Bank after [Palestinian] President Abbas passes away”. When asked if Israel was also afraid of a regime change in Jordan, the general responded, “Everyone is afraid of what’s simmering and not being discussed in the region, and the region’s situation cannot continue on any longer, and Jordan is no exception.” He added: “The higher ups in America and Israel keep postponing these matters into the future, when they believe they will have time to take care of them; they will face reality sooner or later but by the time they wake up, may not have time to fix the situation here [in Jordan] or in Israel”.

Targeted Killing Policy to Expand
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11. JaFaJ intelligence confirms that the Israeli strategy of “terrorist extermination” is here to stay. A Western source who is engaged in a direct working relationship with the Israeli military reported to JaFaJ, that “The Israelis have an extended list of targets, and that they will be eliminated in phases. The first phase is not yet completed, and a top Mossad official has confirmed that Israel was now treating the cause of the disease, not the symptoms”.

12. The implications of potential and substantive changes in the Middle East are more likely to send ripples throughout the region. The most likely countries to be impacted are Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Egypt and Kuwait. Because of the changes and shifting alliances, Israel is changing its strategy, especially in the way they target terrorists in neighbouring countries and territories. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that the Israeli strikes on terrorists are likely to increase and will soon be expanded beyond the borders of the Jewish state.