It is absolutely crucial that Israel change the message it is sending out to its foes in the three arenas endangering the Jewish State.
The last few months have been characterized by a slow but steady heightening of security tensions in areas adjacent to three of Israel’s borders, in contrast to the more geographically distant additional threat posed by Iran.
The three areas in question are: 1. Gaza, 2. Judea and Samaria to whose issues one must add knifings and ramming attacks and 3. Lebanon, Syria and the developments involving Hezbollah, Iran and Russia.
The clear and present danger presented by the escalating tension in those areas makes it imperative for Israel to raise its level of response, because continuing to retaliate on the response level of the past years does nothing to deter Israel’s neighbors nor does it restore tranquility and security to Israel’s population.
Gaza and the tunnel industry
On Sunday, March 18, Israelis awoke to the voice of the IDF Spokesperson announcing that Israel had destroyed two more Hamas-built terror tunnels aiming to reach into Israeli territory. Israel blew up the tunnels, seizing the opportunity to retaliate for the explosion of four roadside bombs placed near the border fence by Hamas the previous week. At first glance this seems like another case of Israeli cleverness and a calculated risk. Hamas hides bombs and Israel blows up tunnels in a legitimate response to aggression, careful to be sure there is no one in the tunnels, so that those who employ the diggers will not have an excuse to raise the level of violence in the area.
The decision to employ this course of action is a result of the Islamic Jihad tunnel destruction Israel carried out in October 2017, in which 15 Jihadists were killed, some in the tunnel and others while trying to rescue those trapped inside. Since then, the IDF and political echelons are wary of a Gazan revenge operation, so in order not to give the terrorist organizations an excuse to heat up the volatile region, they have elected to try to avoid injuring those digging the tunnels, especially if the tunnel has not yet encroached on Israeli territory. I imagine the IDF’s ever-present legal experts had a hand in the decision.
With all due respect to those who make the decisions in the IDF, their superiors and their plethora of legal advisers, this kind of behavior is totally wrong and sends a very problematic message to Gaza’s terror organizations. These murderers are now well aware of Israel’s fear of escalating violence and its concerns about the fury of the organizations digging the tunnels. They are experts at taking advantage of the fear projected by Israel.
In my opinion, Israel must begin to act in a diametrically opposed fashion. It has to declare that all the tunnels, including those that have not yet crossed the border into Israel, are to be considered aggression against Israel. This means that Israel has both the right and the duty to destroy them at any moment in time in order to defend itself. This is already the case when Israel hits Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria without waiting for provocations, and the situations are, in effect, exactly the same. Israel must announce in clear and unequivocal tones that the very act of digging a tunnel anywhere, even within the Gaza Strip, is an aggressive act that justifies an attack even if it eliminates those digging or those who happen to be inside the tunnel by chance.
Israel must create a situation in which anyone entering a tunnel in Gaza, Rafiah or Khan Younis, in order to continue digging it, deliver supplies or ready it for action, is liable to end his life inside it – as is anyone who enters the tunnel to try to rescue hm. In order to destroy the tunnel infrastructure, Israel must create a situation where anyone entering a tunnel fears for his life every second he is in it.
This may not deter all the willing diggers, but it will considerably raise the salaries demanded by the organizations taking part in building the tunnels, and might delay or even bring the work to a standstill.
Judea and Samaria, paying a price for stabbing and car ramming
Stabbing and ramming terror attacks are becoming much too popular lately. They require no technical or organizational infrastructure, the murder weapons – a car or a knife – can be obtained legally by a terrorist acting on his own, while successful prevention of both types of attack is limited. Perpetrators are treated like heroes in their social surroundings, songs of praise are heaped upon their heads, and even if Israel does destroy their homes, they are sure to be rebuilt by the terrorist’s extended family. Meanwhile, his nuclear family will receive generous official financial support from the PA, whether he has been eliminated or apprehended and imprisoned by security forces.
The economic and social benefits reaped by the families of those who carry out terror attacks automatically grants them the status of collaborators, whether or not family members helped in planning the attack. The increase in the number of knifings and ramming attacks forces Israel to raise the level of punishment to include the terrorist’s family. One of the sanctions to be considered is exiling the terrorist’s immediate family – at least his parents – to Gaza. Uprooting the family from its natural social surroundings is proportionate and non-extreme punishment, but it may cause a potential terrorist to think twice about his plans.
At the same time, Israel must work towards a permanent solution – that is, the Palestinian Emirate plan for the cities of Judea and Samaria, based on local families instead of the must-be-dissolved Palestinian Authority, before that entity turns into a terror state under the protection of the world and the UN. Mahmoud Abbas’ approaching disappearance from the scene is an opportunity Israel must take advantage of in order to establish the only possible solution that works, the Emirate Plan.
Syria and Lebanon – Iran and Hezbollah
In contrast to the other two areas in which Israel has to deal with Arab residents of Israel, Syria and Lebanon are an international issue, involving at least four nations: Syria, Lebanon, Iran and Russia. Israel must keep each of these protagonists’ expected reactions in mind when it decides to act in any way. The US is another country involved in what is happening in Syria and Israel has to coordinate its every move with America.
The Syria-Lebanon arena is extremely dynamic, with the situation on the ground constantly changing. Hezbollah and Iran’s presence in territories that Israel sees as a threat to its security is also in flux. What this means is that a situation Israel has learned to live with one day turns into something unacceptable overnight. In the background is the concern that the entire northern front can go up in flames, leading to a wide-ranging war against Hezbollah and Iran.
This concern became real on Saturday, February 10, the day an Iranian drone was intercepted, Iranian and Syrian targets were bombed and an Israeli F-16 downed . A day of battles of this nature could easily have deteriorated into a regional war – and in fact, the tense atmosphere prevailing between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran may actually cause a large scale war to break out.
Israel can repeat over and over that it is doing everything to prevent war, that it is executing “precise surgical operatons” so as not to give Assad, Nasrallah and Khamenei an excuse to initiate an all-out war against it.
This is the wrong kind of message to be sending because it reflects fear of dealing with Iran and Hezbollah. Cowardice heightens the chances of war, because our northern neighbors believe that if Israel does not want a war, it means that Israel thinks it will be the loser in that war, and that it is afraid of the high price in blood and destruction it would have to pay. Israeli fear only encourages Hezbollah and Iran to continue provocations aimed at dragging Israel into a war which they are sure it will lose.
It is crucial for Israel to change that message and the operations accompanying that message. Israel must declare that what is happening in Syria and Lebanon – that is, the increased Iranian presence and Hezbollah’s acquisition of advanced weapons, is seen as aggression against Israel, that Israel is prepared to fight a defensive war, is planning it and will begin it at whatever time it sees fit in response to this aggression. A declaration of this kind will gain the attention of a world which has not taken seriously the growing strength of Iran in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Will an Israeli declaration of its plans for a preventive war in Syria and Lebanon improve Israel’s position? I think it will, because as time passes, Iran is gaining a larger and larger foothold in Syria while Hezbollah stockpiles more and more weapons in addition to establishing arms-producing factories. That leads to the conclusion that the longer the war in the north is put off, the worse it will be and the higher the price Israel pays in blood and damage is going to be.
It is in Israel’s interest, therefore, to wage a preventive war soon, at a time that is more convenient for Israel than for its enemies. Postponing the war will only lead to a stronger, better armed, more organized and dangerous Lebanese and Iranian front arrayed against the Jewish State.
Simultaneous war on three fronts
Israel must take into account that war in the north will lead to escalation in Gaza, due to Iranian influence on Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Increased terror attacks in Judea and Samaria are also to be expected. Unquestionably, the next war will be a complex and far from simple test for Israel’s military, civilian and political systems, but every Israeli must take into account the critical regional situation in which Israel strives to maintain its very life, a region where the weak find it hard to survive.
Only a country which is militarily and economically strong, based on a unified society which believes in the justice of its cause, can deal with the Middle East’s challenges – challenges whose tragic results we see in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. Only a nation that poses a clear threat to its enemies is left alone in this region, while weakness and fear encourage its enemies to see that those fears are realized and come to pass.
In the Middle East, self control is seen as weakness, even if there are some naïve and war weary people in our midst who believe the opposite is true. Egregious security policies are a psychological state in which one side, the foolish one, acts in accordance with its own culture, conceptual framework and rationale, ignoring the culture, conceptual framework and rationale of the other side. To our eternal sorrow and detriment, Israeli decision-makers have been taking steps that absolutely suit our culture, concepts and worldview, while they ignore the fact that our neighbors behave in line with totally different and often completely opposite considerations in mind. The high price for foolish security policies is being paid by the unfortunate people living in the various areas of conflagration in our vicinity.
It’s about time our decision makers begin to react to the Middle East in the ways to which it is accustomed and by which it operates.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar is a senior lecturer in the Department of Arabic at Bar-Ilan University. He served in IDF Military Intelligence for 25 years, specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena. Thoroughly familiar with Arab media in real time, he is frequently interviewed on the various news programs in Israel.
Written for Arutz Sheva, translated by Rochel Sylvetsky, Senior Consultant and Op-ed Editor.
I suspect Lauder is the latest casualty of fear-based politics. He was recently detained by the police in a phishing probe of Netanyahu.And now, he comes out with this craven stuff, which is new for him. Imagine the leader of an international Jewish organization based in America having reason to be afraid of being detained at the airport by Israeli Police and then interrogated? I’m sure it’s having a lasting effect on him.
The Left must be ejected from the legal and security system somehow. It’s crucial. That’s where Shaked comes in.
Another brilliant recent move by her has been to refer most cases to lower courts, as in America.
@ Edgar G.: There is some. I am also talking about Sherman’s plan to financial incentivize Arabs to leave the country.
I am aware some Arab tried to swindle you. You are correct other Arabs would try the same thing. Truth is no one knows how many Arabs in Area C the numbers are all over the place as you say. There are squatters and the EU is helping them squat illegally. Israel needs to annex this area get a population registry. Evict the squaters. Facilitatate the Arabs to leave.
If no one facilitates the Arabs to leave the problem just continues.
@ Edgar G.:
No, it’s you who don’t get it. My point, once again, is that as long as soldiers, politicians and officials are afraid of prosecution if they do the right thing, all the hot air in the world about the wrong-headededness of this or that policy, strategy or tactical decision won’t have any effect. It’s the elephant in the room.
@ Bear Klein:
Area C has gone from almost no Arab population, other than infiltrators, to -a variety of opinions -ranging from 50,000 to 250,000. I recall when Bennett first began talking about Area C, he said there were about 20-30,000 Arabs there who should not be there.
So where do you get the idea that there is Arab property to be purchased. How did THEY get it-other than by just camping there, Where did they get their Title Deeds from. I’m talking about LEGAL Deeds not the products of “While You Wait” Title Deed companies who have all been doing great business for years-at least 58 years that I am sure of. . I’ve actually seen some of those fake deeds, and although I have SOME experience with very old documents, at casual first glance, I was completely fooled. In those days I hadn’t realised the depths of chicanery, and outright lying that is a part of every Arab’s persona.
@ Ted Belman:
I think you are correct that a new reality is emerging. The PA is void of any current real champions to go to bat for it with real power. The EU is perhaps their best friend but are getting toothless. The Arab states are worried about themselves and are not going out on the limb for Abbas and his PA. The USA under Trump and the Gulf States are ready for a new situation and not concerned about the future of the arrogrant corrupt terror supporting PLO/PA.
The PA is about to implode or explode in the near future. The question is what will happen after it has expired. Will Israel take over the territories? Will a version of the Emirates plan (was somewhat tried in 80s with Mayor’s plan) be attempted.
Hopefully Israel will annex Area C and finance an NGO to buy the Arab privately owned properties in Area C and help the humanitarian assistance of the Arabs from Area C & Jerusalem (first) to relocate to Jordan or elsewhere of their choice. Facilitate the moving of these Arabs. If this works in Area C, then try the “humanitarian solution” in specific locations in Area A or B. When the PA implodes or explodes Israel will need to round and dispose of all known terrorists and destroy and terror infastructure ASAP.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Do you not think this “commitment” is beginning to unravel at the seams, with the Hamas/PA on again-off again rapprochement in the dust-and even if revived, could certainly collapse again in moments.. Also, the Taylor Force Bill is passed, and other US moves to de-fund UNRWA and the kleptocratic Arab non-state are in the process of being acted on..
The “Plan” proposers -like Trump- must be well aware that they are just going through the motions for political purposes, with not a hope that any of them would be accepted and installed. They all have huge flaws that make any promulgation, unworkable.
Trump very quickly, after seeing the smoke, dropped his “Deal” on the spot, in that abrupt, quick manner that characterises his whole working life. Works it out, tries it for a while, sees it won’t do, and then reverses himself.
The EU have more problems, with the invasions of the “wicked|” than they so-far can’t cope with, This will need ALL their best endeavours. The so-called 2SS will fall into the background, as it already is with some EU states. There may be a Cultural/Civil War soon, not in every country, but in a solid number. And, even if peace settles, the EU will be no more. They won’t have the will or the money, to take up the burden of cash and other support withdrawals of the US.
They KNOW that a “Palestinian” State would be “failed’ as soon as it’s doors open, and would require permanent total financial and military support. If they tried to interfere with it’s internal politics =, even in a helpful way, they would speedily become “enemies”. After all these are Arabs who cannot understand the meaning of Democracy.
adamdalgliesh Said:
You are so wrong and too fixed in your beliefs to accept the new reality of which I speak. I am not talking through my hat. I know what I am talking about.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
Ar LAST…you’ve GOT IT. Your off-the-point pinpricks are irrelevant and without point, therefore have NO effect. took you a long time….to see the point (forgive my poor puns)
The Emirates plan, like Martin Sherman’s “humanitarian” plan and Ted Belman’s Mudar plan, is a pipe dreams. The “international community,” even the United States, would never tolerate any of these “solutions,” even for a minute. They are all committed to Abbas’ “State of Palestine,” to which they donate several billion dollars a year. It is also unrealistic to talk about preventing the establishment of a Palestinian “terror state,” since this terror state, the “State of Palestine,” already exists and has received widespread diplomatic recognition. It already has an army, trained and armed by the U.S. The Israeli “hawks” waste their time feuding among themselves about which of their fantasy “solutions” is the right one, instead of developing a realistic, doable plan. The only realistic plan is a) replace the present system of government, in which the Supreme Court and government lawyers run the government, and the “political echelon,” including the Prime Minister, has no power, with one in which elected officials appoint all major civilian and military decision-makers, and the “legal advisors” have no say, b) refuse to withdraw from even one inch more of territory, c) institute a counter-propaganda program that is not only in the hands of true Israeli patriots, and well-funded, but also is sophisticated and tuned in to the arguments and information that will make a favorable impression on the “international community” and gradually persuade it to abandon its anti-Israel bias. At present, the Israeli “right” has absolutely no idea how to do this, while the “left” is not willing to do it. d) settling in to a long siege, and preparing the Israeli public to deal with it. There will be no “peace now,” and no “security now,” or “solution now.” France took 100 years to win its war against the English invaders in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. Israel must be prepared for a two hundred year war, in which occasional periods in which the enemy is thrust back are followed by years, even decades, of stalemate. Not a pretty picture, but reality. “Through endurance we triumph.”
@ Edgar G.:
pointless.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
You’re very keen on insisting that “again, I miss the point”…..Not I…..”and what point”? You mentioned a whole quote from a Honeinu advocate..right and proper, but you criticised my comment based on it, and in the next breath you agreed with me…..Sebastien…calm down.
What do you mean by pointing out…as if I didn’t know..that Shaked got 3 out of 4 Judges appointed. I wasn’t referring to that small victory. I pointed out a FACT, that there are 6 “possibly conservative” judges on the panel with 9 others, who all represent the legal fraternity, appointed by them and the self-perpetuating judges themselves. A FACT.
And I pointed out another FACT, that unless there are 2 conservative judges sitting on a 3 judge panel, her efforts will not have the effect she -and we- hope(s) for. You seem to think that I am against Shaked’s efforts……Why do you think that…?? I shouldn’t even ask, you’re wrong anyway.
So what is all your talk about…what point were you trying to shove down my throat…I don’t know..I’m just a simple guy from Ireland.
We seem to have become antagonists lately……????
@ Edgar G.:
Again, you miss the point. I simply cited Honenu as evidence of the problem not its solution.
And again, I said it might help. Then, again, it may be a drop in the bucket, but what she is attempting is necessary for solving the problem because it’s obviously not just about mistaken policy decision-making but about fear of being prosecuted!, which is the point I was making. Explicitly. literally. in so many words.
And, she got not two but three judges out of four new ones.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-supreme-court-judges-tapped-as-right-looks-to-shift-bench/
@ Sebastien Zorn:
That’s all very well to have something like Honenu, which I see frequently at work. But think of the amount of time and money wasted in that 1000 actions, not tomention the apprehensions and traumatic feelings that go along with being marked out as a victim.
Shaked’s reforms will help…yes, but only if there are 2 of the 6 presumed conservative Judges sitting on a 3 judge court. Otherwise it will be no help at all. In a major 15 judge court, it would be NO CONTEST. She needs to keep up her pressure for more changes, and not sit back and bask in glory yet awhile.
@ Edgar G.:
I think Shaked’s reforms of the Supreme Court will help. Soldier and officials live in fear of prosecution at home and abroad.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/MK-Tzipi-Livni-threatened-with-arrest-if-she-lands-in-Brussels-479106
“Honenu is an Israeli Zionist legal aid organization which offers legal assistance to our people to protect and preserve their rights to receive a fair judicial process. We provide legal services to approximately 1000 arrestees a year. Soldiers and civilians who find themselves in legal entanglements due to defending themselves against Arab aggression, or due to their love for Israel, have an organization that will come to their aid 24 hours a day. In the Arab-Jewish conflict in Israel there are dozens of foreign funded organizations helping our enemies. We are there for those loyal to the Jewish people…”
http://honenu.org/
I really believe that Dr. Kedar has been reading my posts…… Just joking, but I have been writing the exact same things for a long time, and just yesterday held conversations with Bear Klein and adamdalgleish, on the matters dealt with in #1 and #3. They coincide exactly with my sentiments freely expressed in the most open (and truculent) terms.
The IDF plans are wrong. They are placatory for the International Community, and are retaliatory and containing (all wrong, should be strongly punitive, not retaliatory) operations, seemingly run by the Supreme Court. What the hell difference if there are some terrorists caught in the tunnels when being blown up. THIS IS THE SINGLE MOST STUPID and COWARDLY ACT I’ve read about since the AIPAC President’s 2 State speech attacking Israel in The New York Times.
All the tunnels should be packed solid with terrorists and THEN blown up, to cause them the most trauma and cutting down their available manpower. They are bloodthirsty permanent enemies, Jew-haters to the core.
Is this a WAR for SURVIVAL or a Chanukah party…… Meshuggenas,
As for the Northern Front, the same applies. Every new bomb emplacement and a gradually widening surround, should be blasted from existence, and it should have begun when they saw the first signs, many years ago. To have allowed it to build up to become a powerful enemy in it’s own right, was sheer madness, or supine displays of soft-headedness of the IDF Chiefs of Staff and the Defence Ministers…Ya’alon for much of that time.
As has been pointed out to me in posts, Israel is much better prepared now than ever. But what response will there be with 1000 rockets a day raining down all over the country. with chaos in the streets, with MDA and other help unable to get to survivors because of mounds of rubble, with people trapped under them…etc.etc
It paints a gloomy picture..yes, but that’s what can reasonably be expected to happen….UNLESS Israel suddenly, initiates a massive preventive aerial attack, with ground troops poised and ready to invade and smash down any surviving resistance, and occupy the whole area for the next indefinite period, assuming the locals will have fled or been cleared out for their safety, maybe for ever., That area below the Litani was part of the original Mandated Israel anyway.
And keep the damned lawyers in their place….not out of it, but away from it comes to interpreting what is permissible and what not, In total war for survival of the whole People, the means and ends should match one another..
“And if not now…when…”??