The chorus of reports that Israelis voted for a national unity government belies the continued right-wing predominance among the electorate.
Rabbi Dov Fischer, ISRAEL HAYOM 2019-09-22 12:16
A myth is being spread that Israelis voted on Sept. 17 for a national unity government under Blue and White leader Benny Gantz. That is apocryphal. In a world where, as per an old American aphorism, “figures don’t lie, but liars can figure,” no data could be more revealing than the true numbers of votes cast. Israelis did not vote on Tuesday for a national unity government.
Some 26% voted for the Blue and White party, which promised to end Benjamin Netanyahu’s record-long premiership. Some 5% voted for a near-defunct socialist Labor party that once was the powerhouse of Israeli politics. A bit more than 4% voted for an even more leftist Democratic Union – Meretz with an expanded troika that includes Labor import Stav Shaffir and perhaps the most incompetent and disastrous prime minister in Israel’s history, Ehud Barak. These three parties, comprising the Zionist Center-Left, are what 35% of Israelis wanted.
Substantially more Jews voted for a decidedly right-wing government. Some 25% voted for a Likud that campaigned unequivocally on a right-wing platform including right-wing and even libertarian economics and promised to extend sovereignty to Jewish communities throughout Judea and Samaria. It was the most right-wing platform that Likud has ever proffered. Just under 6% voted for the more right-wing Yamina, led by Ayelet Shaked. Another 6% voted for United Torah Judaism, the Ashkenazi haredi party that, for the first time in its history, pledged that it would oppose any land concessions. More than 7% voted for the Sephardi haredi equivalent, Shas, which also endorsed the Likud leader for prime minister. Thus, around 44% of voters cast ballots for a Likud-led right-wing government.
Beyond that, Avigdor Lieberman’s party, Yisrael Beytenu, drew 7% of the vote. Lieberman, whose base historically has depended on right-wing older constituents from the former Soviet Union, expanded his core by attracting secularists who support reducing haredi influence in the public sphere. Lieberman, Netanyahu’s former director general who later rose to be his foreign minister and then his defense minister, is decidedly right-wing, despite cynical Likud efforts to portray him otherwise. Indeed, Lieberman just reiterated: “We won’t sit [in a coalition] with the Arabs, that’s absurd.” Lieberman’s voters may oppose Netanyahu but they predominantly affiliate right-wing.
When viewed objectively, the chorus of reports that Israelis voted for a national unity government belies the continued strength of right-wing predominance among the electorate. Voters’ opinions differ on whether Netanyahu should continue as prime minister and on the role of ultra-Orthodox influence, but Jewish Israelis remain decidedly right-wing, even discounting the 2% of votes wasted on the extreme-right Otzma Yehudit party. As always when that party runs alone, it again failed to secure the 3.25% threshold of votes needed to qualify for the Knesset.
Otzma Yehudit’s self-sabotage of the right-wing cause compares to American third parties that, over the years, have notoriously yet inadvertently sabotaged their own agendas by running hapless extreme campaigns that drew pointless votes away from stronger, less extreme parties near their ideologies, thereby empowering opposing views to take power. Thus, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader almost certainly cost the Democrat Al Gore Florida’s crucial electoral votes in 2000, handing the presidency to Republican George W. Bush. Nader won the votes of 97,488 Floridians, overwhelmingly from the Left; Bush edged out Gore in Florida by a mere 537 votes. And the Green Party’s Jill Stein possibly cost Hillary Clinton victories in critical Midwestern states whose electoral votes proved crucial to Donald Trump in 2016. For example, in Wisconsin, where Clinton trailed Trump by 22,748 votes, Stein won 31,072 votes.
Similarly, Otzma Yehudit’s failure derived from Israel’s legislative effort to stabilize an electoral system that again saw dozens of separate slates contending.
Overall, nearly 3% of votes were wasted on 20 parties that failed to reach the 3.25% electoral threshold.
Recognizing that nearly 11% percent of Israelis voted for the Joint Arab List, which has its own agenda repugnant to a national unity government, the data reflect unequivocally that little really changed in September from the core preferences expressed in April’s election. Five months ago, the right-wing came within a whisker of forming a stable coalition. It amassed 60 seats, one shy of a coalition majority – even without Liberman – and the New Right party drew 3.22% of the ballots cast, just 0.03% under the 3.25% vote threshold needed to enter the Knesset. But for those few votes lacking – 1,454 to be exact, it would have entered with four seats and the right-wing would have comprised an easy majority coalition, even without Lieberman.
Five months later, some externals changed a bit. Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party merged into Likud, as did Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu. The New Right replaced Naftali Bennett with Shaked as its nominal head and aligned this time with Habayit Hayehudi and the National Union, while Otzma Yehudit ran alone. But the end result once again reflected a majority for a conservative, right-wing direction – not for a unity government under Gantz. At its core, the main split was whether Netanyahu or someone else on the Right should be prime minister.
Enormous pressure is now being exerted by the media and President Reuven Rivlin to force a national unity government. It is imperative that right-wing figures unravel the mess produced by the Sept. 17 vote and complicated by the idiosyncrasies of Israel’s fragmented electoral system. But they should not capitulate to the fabrication that Israelis voted for a national unity government under Benny Gantz. The numbers are irrefutable: The Israeli electorate in general, and particularly the 75% who are Jews, voted unequivocally for continuing the country’s abandonment of socialism and alignment with right-wing solutions.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Yes Adam, I also believe that Levin is an honest man…as far as any politician can be.. It could be that you are right about the tip. But not from a reporter, who are notoriously poor sources, judging by what they write. A colleague would be more apt. We must wait and see what happens. If Ted is correct, there could be a rapprochement brewing between Lieberman and Netanyahu which would solve the present impasse. Let’s hope so. Lieberman is such an unreliable opportunist that anything could eventuate.
What we really know is…that we know we don’t know….!!
@ Edgar G.: Edgar, I think it is possible that Levin received a “tip” from a source he considers reliable (such as a reporter, or maybe a parliamentary colleague from Blue-White or even the Joint List) that such an agreements exists, but this source had been unable to learn the contents of the agreement. I am just speculating. But Levin strikes me as an honest man, and if he claims to know that such an agreement exists, I am inclined to believe he has some rational basis for believing this to be the case..
This is from a column by someone named Eiton Orkibi in Israel Hayom. Ably summarizes the reasons why the inclusion of the Jooint List in the government is a trojan horse.
News Item
This is huge. It means that Liberman is willing to join Likud’s coalition providing he get’s some of what he wants. This meeting must take place and UTJ and Shas should bend over badckwards to accomodate him at least in part.
Arutz Sheva has published this report from an interview that Ahmed Tibi gave to Israeli television. Clear evidence that the Joint List supports terrorism against Israelis. Also reveals Tibi’s absolute confidence that the Joint List will have great influence over the Gantz government. Gantz or someone working for him must given him that impression. Note his euphoric, expansive mood. The fact that Gantz requested a meeting with the Joint List immediaely after the election, and then did meet with them shortly thereafter, is proof of this.
This article is by Liel Liebowitz of Tablet magazine. She seems to be one of the few commentators who understands what a disaster it is that the Israeli establishment has admitted this Trojan Horse into the government. THe background information on the joint List parties backing of the Palestinian terrrorists is invaluable for understanding what Israel is in for.
***
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Well Adam.. if he has a secret agreement, as Yariv Levin states so positively, why doesn’t he reveal what it is… I think that he is speculating, because of Gantz;s approach to the Arabs, and their sudden affection for him. .
He has already, in several ways, shown himself “manifestly incompetent” (perfect phrase to describe him) Yet, those who voted for him, and all the other left wingers, plus the Arabs, seem as keen s mustard to leap over the precipice with their eyes closed, hoping to land on deep polyurethane sponge mattresses..
There was an article in Arutz 7, by Netanyahu’s brother-in-law Prof. Ben Artzi, which I came across about an hour after I’d posted above, which almost duplicated my comments about Gantz and PM rotating. But in more “professorial” language of course. You should read it.
I often tend to believe that the Israeli people only read the headlines, skimming -speed-reading at that- over them, without assimilating what they’re reading. It’s much the same on this site, unless a post hits deeply at someone’s convictions (like “Prof” Al Gore’s global warming “mantra”.) or if someone with more perception spots the contents as being meaningful. You likely will be the only one to comment on my post.
I can’t see a single thing of any good coming from PM rotating with Gantz. Except of course, that the comparison between he and Netanyahu, will be shown to be chasmic. (And we already know that) In the meantime, let’s hope that Israel’s wonderful progress under Netanyahu, is affected only the way a huge liner coming to a stop is…and he can pick up the reins again in time. You’ll know what I mean.
Liberman says Bibi and Gantz should flip a coin to see who will be first as Prime Minister in a rotation. Now that really seems a most boring a way to pick a PM.
Okay elections did not do it.
Needs a skill competition or a series of skills competitions:
Both too old for anything physical. Likely Gantz wound win anyway especially if it was a one on one basketball game. Arm wrestling for the PMs job??
Chess Match – ?? Maybe
Contest of who knows more about certain subjects my guess is Gantz would not want to compete with Bibi when it comes to knowledge on most subjects.
Anyone have any ideas of what contest should decide who goes first in a PM rotation.
Can you image a televised competition to see who is PM of Israel. What a reality show the ratings would be off the charts!
@ Edgar G.: Hello, Edgar. I hope you are right about Gantz. If he is that much of a turtle, his government may qiuckly collapse. No one will feel comfortable serving in a government with someone who is manifestly incompetent. Pressure will develop quickly to replace him as Prime Minister.
But I have begun to fear that he may be something of an evil genius underneath a dull, colorless facade. He seems to have moved skillfully to firm up his alliance with the PLO and Hamas representatives. As Yariv Levin has pointed out , he has a secret agreement with them that he has not disclosed. Perhaps he is simply extremely secretive and tight-lipped so that no one will know the depth of his plotting and betrayal of Israel, while appearing colorless and stupid to throw off everyone’s suspicion. It is of great help to a schemer to be understimated by his prosepctive partners, or even to allow them to think they are or will be able to control him.
We shall see. But whether he is a criminal mastermind, or a tool of some shadowy cabal of criminal masterminds, the appalling results might be the same.
********************************A SCENARIO—by Edgar G.********************************
Israel, in it’s public, never ceases to astonish and disgust me. With more geniuses per sq inch than anywhere else on the globe, it’s political activities are still barely out of the Middle Ages.
This proposed, and likely (I hope not) Unity Govt with rotating PMs (to satisfy Gantz’s (and Netanyahu haters’ vanity). can be a disaster. This is what we have and will have. “Rotating PMs are ONLY safe, when there are two leaders of roughly equal skills in leading a country.” I repeat this IN CAPITALS. Such a patent truth is right under our noses and we don’t even acknowledge that it exists…
Assuming a rotating PM, we will have Netanyahu, doing what he does, for the first 2-3 years, than Gantz….Gantz, whose followers compare him to a “Turtle”….. who has hidden his “charms” from any view of the voters….because he hasn’t any. He is a figurehead whose strings have been pulled by some cabal of inferior, failed politicians, or a shadowy guru, as yet unrevealed.
It places Netanyahu in the situation of having to be a teacher, giving a class of “PMship 101″… OR, if the arrangement allows for the PMs to also rotate as Deputy PMs, to be there to put the pieces of Gantz’s negative ability to carry on the budding and developed policies of Netanyahu back in place. Can anyone see Gantz dealing with assurance and success with any of the world leaders…Trudeau could make mincemeat of him. Putin would “chew him up and spit him out”, even with Liberman behind him..
Even though meetings of world leaders are often pre-arranged and the results decided BEFORE the meetings, it is more than likely that Gantz, if he opens his mouth at all, will damage what has been already prepared for success.
I’ve seen just such happen in court. We had a case many years ago, where a wealthy pub owner, was charged with receiving stolen goods. Everything was going wonderfully well, our witnesses, had all given their very convincing false evidence, and only a formality remained that the man charged, should enter the box, and when asked, state that the items had been in his family for a generation….The damned fool…overcome by nerves, said he’d never seen the items before and they’d been “planted by the police”. He got 5 years. (And almost gave us nervous breakdowns…)
A lesson here somewhere…not neccessary moral, but instructive, nevertheless.
It Will Be A MESS….. And Rivlin, who hates the PM, is pushing hard for this… I hope, that for a change, there ar some posts which support, deny, or dissect this postultion I’ve just made. .I would appreciate other, perhaps more discerning viewpoints on this.
Bibi now says it will take a broad unity government to form a coalition.
He says the first two given chances by Rivlin will fail and this will take months. He says that the third try will succeed. He believes that will be him. That is his projection.
I say he is correct that the third try will succeed but Rivlin will task another MK such as Gideon Saar to form a coalition and not him since he already had failed in back to back elections.
https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Netanyahu-says-5780-should-be-year-of-unity-602582