While Iron Dome shows its holes, another war is being fought between Israel’s economists and the Finance Ministry
Missiles from Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system destroy incoming rockets fired at Israel from Gaza, Ashkelon, Israel, November 13, 2018.AFP
To people in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, and certainly in the Galilee, the mini-war with Hamas seems like someone else’s business. As of Tuesday afternoon, around 400 rockets had been fired from Gaza on the Negev, claiming two lives and injuring 85. But if not for the news alerts coming over their smartphones, the rest of Israel would be oblivious to the whole thing.
They shouldn’t be. As I’ve said before, the missile threat is growing rapidly, as just one day of fighting this week demonstrated.
In 2006 Hezbollah hurled some 4,000 missiles at Israel over the 34-day Second Lebanon War (averaging 117 a day). Eight years later a much more lightly armed Hamas launched 3,360 projectiles in 50 days during Operation Protective Edge (averaging 67 a day).
This time around, in less than one day, the army estimates that Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired 370 rockets and mortars at Israel, from an arsenal it puts at 20,000.
Iron Dome and the other anti-missile systems are supposed to be Israel’s insurance policy, and the statistics so far have been encouraging.
In 2006, before Iron Dome, 53 Israelis were killed, a third of the country had to take cover in bomb shelters and 30,000 insurance claims were filed; in 2014, with Iron Dome, just two were killed and only 2,400 claims for damage were filed.
But, as justifiably lauded as the Iron Dome system is, it isn’t perfect. We’ve seen that on more than one occasion, even when it wasn’t coping with a barrage.
Holes in the Iron Dome
Over the first day of fighting this week, the IDF says it intercepted 100 of 370 projectiles. The others were mostly headed for open areas that didn’t require intervention, but Iron Dome failed to stop several homes from being hit.
Imagine a scenario where Hezbollah launches a war. By one recent count, it now has an arsenal of 130,000 rockets and missiles, nine times the number it has in the Second Lebanon War. They are more powerful and have a longer range than 12 years ago. Hamas, similarly has more firepower. Iron Dome won’t be able to cope.
Thus, the assumption that Israel and the economy will bounce back quickly from the next missile war is dangerous.
Plausibly, business will grind to a halt, the tourism industry will implode, and investors will start taking the security situation into account and hesitate. The cost of reconstruction will also run high.
Given the predictably high cost in material and human lives, I hazard to guess that is one reason why Netanyahu has been so loathe to entangle Israel in a full-fledged conflict.
Here and there we have seen hints at what could be in store. Take for instance the brief halt of international flights to and from Ben-Gurion International Airport in 2014, during Operation Protective Edge, which was far from being a full-blown war.
But wait…
Meanwhile, there’s another war being fought, this one between the Finance Ministry and the country’s economists. Like the one in Gaza, it seems pretty distant, if not downright, irrelevant to the majority of Israelis who are enjoying the fruits of a seemingly unstoppable economy.
You might even say it’s boring and unintelligible, but (as American TV hawkers used to say), “but wait …”
Last week, the treasury reported that the budget deficit in the 12 months through October had ballooned to 3.9% of gross domestic product. It is headingfar above the target set in the 2018 budget.
That is a seemingly obscure statistic. In reality, it is a measure of how well the government is controlling its spending.
Fiscal restraint was a key reason Israel weathered the Great Recession in 2008, why its credit rating is so high, and why foreign investors are willing to ignore our problematic security situation. But Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon has been playing a dangerous game with fiscal policy, cutting taxes and increasing spending on and off the books, and counting on one-off tax windfalls.
He and his aides say their critics are too focused on one number (that pesky deficit), but when you look at the big picture, everything looks okay.
Quite to the contrary, when you look at the big picture, things look worrying. The government has taken on long-term spending commitments, and Netanyahu wants to increase the defense budget. It seems like the era of tax-revenue windfalls is over. Elections are on the horizon, which isn’t a time when politicians like to undertake unpopular austerity policies.
The fiscal chickens are coming home to roost and at an inauspicious moment. The world economy is looking shakier in part thanks to Trump’s trade wars. In Israel, after 15 years of virtually non-stop growth, time for the economy is no longer on our side – the odds of a downturn are growing.
Israel is walking into this period of uncertainty with a problematic fiscal position and a rising security threat. We’re seeing the warning signs now, and that should have the attention of people in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as much as in the Negev.
It is this remark of yours, Ber, that made me feel that you sought to detach yourself from the plight on the Gaza ‘envelope” population.
As to what you can do, here are some suggestions:
Bmobard politicians, other office-holders and Israeli newspapers with letters demanding action against the terrorists.
Organize noisy, raucus demonstrations outside the offices and even homes of the government officials who are doing nothing about the terror offensive over th epast nine months, demanding that they act.
Join a political party that demands firm military action and actively campaign for it in the coming elections. (Possibly Zehut or one of the other so-called “far right” or ‘pro-settler” groups).
Urge the leaders of these parties to unite so that they can win some seats in the next Knesset elections.
Donate money to organizations that are campaigning for military action against the terrorists.
Best of all launch a campaign to change Israel’s Basic Laws to deprive the unelected judges, prosecutors, other government lawyers, bureaucrats and even appeasement-oriented senior military officers of the power that they now have to obstruct the army and government from taking firm actions of the terrorists.
See my four past articles in Israpundit where I advocate for this program. I am hoping to write another article soon eleaborating on my proposed action plan for ordinary Israelis to change the appeasement-orinted passive policies of their government.
I believe that you and many other “ordinary” Israelis can find the time to do these things, even with your heavy work, study and family responsibilities.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Again, what makes you think that we don’t take this threat seriously? And, again, what exactly would you suggest we each do as individuals to better show we take it seriously?
People in Tel Aviv and the Dan region need to take seriously the threat to the Jewish communities in the Gaza “envelope.” After all, they are only a few miles from the Dan region, and the “contagion” of rockets will inevitably spread north.
The Jews in the Gaza “envelope” are in effect shields and guards for the Jews living in the densely populated area a few miles to the North of them. If the people there are forced to evacuate, that shield will be gone, and the Dan cities will come under massive direct attack. Also, if Jews don’t show solidarity with each other when under armed attack, none of them are likely to survive. c@ Ber:
Much as I dislike Haaraetz, this article does make sense, at least with respect to the security threat facing Israel. I am no expert on economics, and therefore can’t comment on the alleged ooming economic crisis in Israel or elsewhere. However, Israel must as a very minimum end its transfers of money to Gaza and the PLO, its allowing in of aid from Qatar and Iran to the Gaza terrorists, its allowing Israeli currency to be used as Gaza’s currency, its trade with Gaza. Obviously, though, when military force must be used, it will have to place an emphasis on destroying Hamas’s military, communications and economic infrastructure, (all inimately interconnected as in all modern states during wartime), even at the cost of killing the civilians who serve as the terrorists’ human shields.
ionism and support for the Palestinian “national” movement. Even the most senior military officers are committed to this leftist ideology. This is the reason that no vigorous military response has been undertaken to Hamas Fatah and the other terrorist groups armed aggression, and why no such response will be undertaken in the forseeable future–unless and untilsome way is found to remove all these deeply entrenched disloyal fifth-columnists and appeasers from office id found and carried out. A profoundly difficult situation. The Israeli ‘right” must someday realize the need to drive these people from office, probably requiring major changes in Israel’s basic laws, before Israel will once again defend itself from the aggressors.