01 July 2022
Tanks are pictured at an Israeli military post near the Israeli-Syrian border on March 9, 2022, (Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images)
Recently, this writer attended a dinner at which the keynote speaker was Yossi Cohen, the former director of Mossad, Israel’s external intelligence service.
The focus of Cohen’s address was the impact of global events on Israel’s strategic security.
No One Came to Save a Single Infant . . .
Although he touched only briefly on the ongoing war in Ukraine, what he said was perhaps more policy-relevant than his observations on topics to which he devoted most of his time— Iran, the Arab world, the Russian deployment in Syria, and the United States.
After giving a brief tour d’horizon of the combined military might of NATO, he pointed out poignantly, that despite this potentially awesome prowess, “no one came to save even one Ukrainian baby.”
Indeed, for Ukrainians, the situation must be particularly galling.
After all, it was barely 20 years ago that the Budapest Memorandum was signed, in which Russia, the U.S., and the UK pledged to refrain from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine and undertook to respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing (1994) borders.
Clearly, there have since been blatant Russian violations of the Memorandum
Western Democracies are Unreliable
In a caustic review of Ukraine’s fate — and the chain of events that led up to it — Erielle Davidson of George Mason University berates the “stark failure of the Budapest Memorandum.”
She writes, ” . . . Western democracies are unreliable and fickle. International agreements involving the abdication of strategic assets in exchange for vague ‘assurances’ of undefined future support are not worth the paper they are written on.”
Extending the scope of her analysis of Ukraine’s experience, Davidson continues”: “Ukraine is not the only country the U.S. and European countries have insisted make dangerous concessions for paper peace with an undemocratic, bellicose neighbor.”
Demanding Jerusalem Repeat Kiev’s mistakes?
She then goes on to trace the pertinence of the events in Ukraine for the situation Israel is facing in the conflict with Palestinian-Arabs and the wider Arab world.
She observes: ” . . . this has been the entire blueprint of Western democracies’ approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: push the Israelis to cede strategic territorial depth in the hopes that governments run by terrorists will behave. In exchange, Israel would ride a brief wave of Western plaudits and vague assurances of assistance, if the Palestinians were to seek to destabilize or attack the smaller Israel.”
According to Davidson, “An Israeli deal with the Palestinians would surely be met, like the Budapest Memorandum, with fanfare and goodwill in the short term. The world, supposedly, would have become a more peaceful place.”
However, as she asserts: ” . . . Ukraine’s concessions in the 1990s are hardly remembered today . . . the Ukrainian war . . . represents the failure of a Western peace process — a failure that our ally Israel should certainly remember when an unchastened American and European foreign policy establishment inevitably asks Jerusalem to repeat Kiev’s mistakes.”
Israel: The Failure of International Guarantees
Indeed, in a paper entitled When International Agreements Utterly Failed, David Makovsky, distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute, analyzes the events that led to the 1967 Six-Day War, which erupted after Egypt closed the Tiran Straits to Israeli navigation.
This comprised a critical blow to Israel, which at the time relied on strategic oil imports from Iran supplied via the Straits.
Israel dispatched then-Foreign Minister Abba Eban on an urgent trip to urge the international community to re-open the Straits and avert war. However, Eban encountered an apathetic and cynical international response.
Thus, even though the then-French president, Gen. Charles De Gaulle conceded that a commitment had been made to Israel to keep the Tiran Straits open, he curtly dismissed the pledge, declaring, “that was 1957 . . .now [is] 1967.”
No Guarantee Can Guarantee a Guarantee
Accordingly, Israel’s strenuous diplomatic efforts to persuade the western powers to pressure Cairo to reopen the Straits proved to no avail.
Along with the closure of the straits, Egypt began mobilizing forces along Israel’s southern border — thus triggering Israel’s preemptive strikes against Egyptian positions and airfields that heralded the outbreak of the Six-Day War.
In his paper on failed international guarantees, Makovsky remarks: “we should not forget . . . cannot be based on abstract international guarantees about the future”; and laments: “When the political context changed . . .the guarantees evaporated.”
Indeed, as the late Menachem Begin reportedly once remarked to then-U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance a decade later, ” . . . there is no guarantee that can guarantee a guarantee.”
No One Will Come . . .
For Israel, the message is starkly unequivocal.
It must be remembered that should it cede vitally important strategic territory at the behest of foreign governments, this could well tempt its adversaries to launch a deadly assault on it.
Moreover, it should remember it can expect scant support from other countries, unwilling to come to its aid.
For, as Yossi Cohen warned in his address, if Israel is attacked, it must assume that “no one will come.”
Martin Sherman is the founder and executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies and served for seven years in operational capacities in Israel’s intelligence community. Sherman lectured for 20 years at Tel Aviv University in Political Science, International Relations and Strategic Studies. He holds several university degrees — B.Sc. (Physics and Geology), MBA (Finance) and Ph.D. in Political Science/International Relations. He was the first academic director of the internationally renowned Herzliya Conference and has authored two books as well as numerous articles and policy papers on a wide range of political, diplomatic and security issues. He was born in South Africa and has lived in Israel since 1971. Read Martin Sherman’s Reports — More Here.
I am often struck by the many voices who often speak of violations of the Budapest Memorandum and next choose to selectively cite only the Russian occupation of Crimea. When discussing the violations to this accord, the preceding activities that took place in Kiev should not be overlook, as the Russian action in Crimea could not possibly be responsible for causing the events that came in the hours and days before the Russian occupation.
Indeed, anyone who has not read the 6 very short, easily comprehended statements that formulate the Budapest Memorandum, should really take the time to read it. Dr. Martin summarizes the document well enough as a
Here is a link for the download of this very short document:
https://policymemos.hks.harvard.edu/files/policymemos/files/2-23-22_ukraine-the_budapest_memo.pdf?m=1645824948
Hence, upon reading the Budapest Memorandum, it becomes immediately clear that there was no single violation of the agreement, but rather there were multiple violations, several of which preceded Russia’s occupation were directly associated with the actions of the US coup.
To begin with, the American coup disrespected the sovereignty of Ukraine , employed coercive actions against the political independence of Ukraine, and subordinated the economic interests of Ukraine to that of the EU, and thereby violated the provisions 1, 2 and 3 of the Bucharest Memorandum, respectively, and, these actions, each of which preceded Russia’s invasion of Crimea, actually triggered Russia’s occupation of the peninsula.
So, the Russians certainly did occupy the Crimea, but this was also certainly not the first action taken to violate the Budapest Memorandum.
Why are people who understand international guarantees are garbage not understanding that confederation is just another international guarantee?
The key word is “insisted”. The US “insists” that others obey it, because it has the clout to do so. And Israel does what the US insists, because it wants to be protected by that clout.
President Biden has been insisting things without the cover of real clout. The American people have that clout, but he has been ignoring some 85% of them; and they will not back him up.
Did Russia promise to fulfill all these pledges even if Ukraine became its bitter enemy and colluded with other countries to threaten Russia’s security and even its existence?
A nice little low key hit piece against Russia.
This from Newsmax which is run by Chrisopher Ruddy.
Ruddy went to School of Finance in the City of London Financial District.This is the same school that George Soros attended……Ukraine is a political creature of the Bankers in the ‘City’ & the EU & NATO.NewsMax feature whole pages of stories about the poor Ukraine,where Stephan Bandera’s ghost comes out at parades.
There was mention of some agreement made in Budapest about non-Aggression in Ukraine by Russia,but no mention of what NATO did to Yugoslavia!
The Russians are doing what they need to do with the EU Puppet to protect themselves from the EU Globalists NATO organization!
My opinion,Israel is better off staying close to Putin & Russia & BRICS than to fawn on the EU Globalists who have funded the terrorists who attack Jews.Israel should look east into Asia for it’s future rather than the Jew Hating Europeans.
P.S.Citizens of Israel with Russian Background make up 15% of Israel’s population 2022!
What Israel doen’t know or understand is at this time when things are looking grim in international assistance is that is what God wants Israel to know that we are in a time when nobody is going to come to Israel’s assistance but God Himself to finally show the world what He can do for His chosen country and His people to put an end of all the fears and speculation. Covid was a preperation for this great event and all He wants is for His people to trust in Him alone, but we will see who is willing to do this in the end when things look impossible.
Of course Martin Sherman is right that the international guarantees are garbage. Countries will do whatever they deem is best for them in the given moment.
However in every other respect, comparing Israel to Ukraine is highly inappropriate.
Russia has every moral and historical right to both Crimea, Donbass and Kherson Oblast.
Palestinians have ZERO right to Judea and Samaria.
Current Russian invasion of Ukraine was fully justified by aggressive actions of Ukrainian side.
On the other hand, Israel did nothing to provoke Egypt’s closure of Tiran Straits.
Russian claim to Crimea and South Eastern Ukraine is every bit as justified as Israeli claim to Judea, Samaria and Gaza.
Also, Ukraine receives tens of billions dollars / euro financial and military support from America and Europe. Israel got no support in 1967.
America and Europe do everything in their power to crash russia economically, no such pressure was put on the Arabs in 1967.
On the contrary, the West put a huge pressure on Israel to give back the historical Israeli land liberated from Arab occupation as well as strategic Sinai desert conquered in 1967.
Wish writer would have stuck with reporting what Yiossi Cohen said, I’m curious. Ukraine vowed as Israel does, we don’t want your soldiers just the means to fight= weapons, support. Reason why Iran nuclear saga continues without any intervention and stumbling “talks” is that the only country Iran vows to utterly destroy is Israel. Did Israel receive any credit for pulling out of Gaza and handing it to Hamas?. We will be condemned if we fight Hamas or Hezbollah in Lebanon. Of course Samaria & Judea will turn into Gaza overnight if Israel withdrew. Needed for defense, water, sewer, peace. IDF must be able to entere at will. Not so any longer w Gaza.