Peloni: As Hezbollah is caught in a state of dissembling chaos, it was left to the Mullahs to either respond on their own or not at all. They chose to launch a vast ballistic missile assault on Israel, providing Israel with an inarguable basis for dealing with the Mullahs directly. Of course, it can not be known what the context might have been which brought Iran’s leadership to make such a decision, but they will come to find in due time that no matter the basis for doing so, this was an extraordinary mistake.
Iran has assumed for too long that it can wreak havoc without retribution – that needs to change.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN | OCTOBER 1, 2024
A person uses a phone on the ground, on the day Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, near Tel Aviv, Israel, October 1, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Ammar Awad TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1 is part of the Tehran regime’s attempt to make these types of attacks a new normal. They carried out a large attack in April and threatened another attack in August. This has led Israel into crisis each time as people must be prepared to go to shelters, and activities are canceled.
We have become too used to the idea that hundreds of Iranian missiles can fly through the sky of Israel. Because Israel has air defenses, these kinds of unprecedented attacks, which would usually mark the beginning of a major war, are portrayed as acceptable. Media abroad portrays them as Iran trying to “retaliate” or “even the score” or “deter” Israel. This is a false attempt to downplay the Iranian threat.
Iran has shown in its recent attack that it can launch 180 ballistic missiles. The previous time, in April, it used more drones than missiles. Now, it is relying on the missiles, and it has also shown it can target certain areas of Israel with them. This is a major threat to the region. It cannot go unanswered. What that means is that Iran has for too long assumed a kind of privilege where it expected to be appeased. It expects that there will be no response. Iran’s regime assumes it can send millions of Israelis to shelters and that life in Tehran will continue as normal.
Iran has been doing this for years. It attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq energy facility in 2019 using drones and cruise missiles. It also carried out ballistic missile attacks on Erbil and other areas in the Kurdistan region of Iraq over the last several years. Iran has also launched ballistic missiles at Syria and Pakistan in January. It also attacked US forces at the Asad base in Iraq using ballistic missiles in 2020. Notice the pattern.
Why not Iran?
Iran has been doing this more and more, and it always gets away with it. No one launches ballistic missiles at Iran. Iranians don’t have to flee to shelters. Iran’s regime leaders don’t have to go to a bunker. Iran feels complete privilege to do whatever it wants. It has attacked ships in the Persian Gulf; it has encouraged Hamas’ genocidal attack on October 7; it has armed Hezbollah; and it has flooded Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon with arms for proxy militias. The regime is a threat to the region and the world.
Iran’s attack on Israel illustrates its growing threat. This is not an acceptable trend. I saw the attack from my balcony while my family sheltered. I had to rush home when Israel’s Home Front Command said that there was a security threat. The threat caused the whole country to go to shelters.
From my balcony, I could see the ballistic missiles flying over Jerusalem. Many seemed headed to the South. Some were intercepted. Sirens sounded across Jerusalem, those haunting sirens that cause us all anxiety. While it seems the missile threat did not cause much damage and didn’t harm many people, it is still an unacceptable way to live.
The theory that Israel should “take the win” and not respond simply because no one was injured is a false way to examine this threat. It’s like saying that since no one was injured in a mass shooting, that therefore it’s acceptable to have mass shootings. It’s a false perception that simply because a bullet hits a bullet-proof vest that therefore the person who fired the bullet should be released immediately.
We don’t view crimes that way. We don’t argue that if no one was injured, then the crime of shooting at a crowd of people didn’t happen. We don’t “take the win” and shrug our shoulders in those cases. Just because Israel has good defenses and Iran’s missiles failed to reach their targets in most cases, doesn’t mean there is no threat. People had to shelter and sit in fear. Children are traumatized.
It’s obvious that if the situation was reversed, and Israel launched 200 missiles at Iran and millions of Iranians had to seek shelter, that it would not be portrayed as acceptable. Iran is trying to create a new normal of massive ballistic missile attacks on Israel. Iran is testing Israel’s defenses. Iran is also preparing to develop a nuclear bomb. Iran is using its attacks across the region to hone its capabilities. The attacks in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan were not in a vacuum. They were preparations for the attacks on Israel. The fact that Iran was appeased and not stopped earlier has emboldened it.
One must try to think like an Iranian Mullah or IRGC general. They have been telling everyone in the Middle East, Israeli is weak and they are Omnipotent.
Israel killed Nassrallah (their number one ally) plus Hannieh in Tehran plus an IRGC general in Beirut. They lost face and prestige and looked weak in the eyes of the Middle East.
So westerners would say and do it makes no sense for Iran to attack Israel because that gives them carte blanche to hit them back and harder. Yes it is not logical in western eyes. These are Iranian fanatics and they have their own way of thinking.
Israel must hit them not per the proportional logic of westerners but per the logic of the middle east were Israel lives plus pure actual logic.
Israel must blast the nuclear sites and oil and gas facilities at a minimum. Even further if they can knock off Ali Khameni and some of the top IRGC officials that will gravy and could lead to regime change .