Israel Must Preempt Hezbollah

When I was resident in northern Iraq in the summer of 2019, an Iranian acquaintance told me that in understanding the regional strategy of his country, I should bear in mind that while “other nations will kill you with iron, the Iranians will kill you with cotton.” The phrase stayed with me. I later learned that it is a famous Persian expression. In the context in which we discussed it, my friend wanted me to grasp the subtle, patient and slow moving nature of Iranian strategy in the Middle East. He also wanted me not to confuse patience with an absence of lethal seriousness of purpose.

At present, this patient approach is delivering dividends for the Islamic Republic across the Middle East. Over the last 30 years, as a signal example of its approach, Tehran has seeded two semi-regular Islamist insurgent armies on Israel’s borders. These are Hamas in Gaza, and the more powerful and consequential Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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Jonathan Spyer is director of research at the Middle East Forum and director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. He is author of Days of the Fall: A Reporter’s Journey in the Syria and Iraq Wars (2018).