T. Belman. Nashe points out that the with the deal with the US who in turn made a deal with Lebanon, for ownership of a small gas field that belonged to Israel Also included a promise by Lebanon to rein in Hezbollah which they have yet to do. Israel is now threateing to cancel the deal if Lebanon does deal with Hezbollah.
TOM NASH REPORT
It appears Nash is wrong about the deal.
The Lebanon-Israel gas deal: What both sides have to gain – explainer
The gas field is an opening but not a major victory. Lebanon has NO control over Hezbollah which de facto dictates how the country is run. To have Lebanon support reining in Hezbollah is a plus but only a PR plus.
However it gives (Theoretically) the Sovereign State of Lebanon the right to ask for outside international aid to remove Hezbollah from it’s territory.
And the only way to do that is by military means, which will be 1982 all over again, but THIS time, when Hezbollah is destroyed or captured and exiled, it will NOT be allowed to return and regain hegemony as before.
The most desirable outcome is that War should occur and Hezbollah defanged completely, and exiled permanently. Those that survive. Except for the name they are the same Islamic Jew haters like Gamas and the PA we all have had experience with. And bankrolled by Iran.
No OSLO for THEM..
Note: Lebanon, is still in a state of war with Israel, never having signed any peace agreement like Jordan and Egypt.
This would be the first time that Israel actually made good on a broken international agreement. It should become a template for the application of other agreements. The fact that Israel signed an agreement doesn’t mean that the other signers can break it with impunity while Israel continues to hold up its agreed part.
This is an interesting perspective. If true, it implies that Israel has made a very creative move vis a vis Lebanon. Instead of Israel just taking a passive position, instead of just simply defending Israel from Hezbollah attacks, this is an assertive option.
It is not clear to me that Lebanon has the ability to prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel. It appears as if Lebanon is a failed state, and Hezbollah has freedom of action because there is no Lebanese military power that can stand up to Hezbollah.
But it still is an assertive move on Israel’s part. It opens up the possibility that some Lebanese who care about Lebanon might want to create daylight between Lebanon and Hezbollah. This would give Lebanon something to fight for, i.e., the economic gains of the gas fields if there are any Lebanese agents with the power to act on this.
Yet even if there are no forces in Lebanon who can stand up to Hezbollah, it may give Hezbollah something to think about. Now they have to start thinking about who in Lebanon might want to work with Israel to end their hegemony over Lebanon.
Still will have to defund iran