Israel is trading land to avoid isolation

Not only did Bibi release the prisoners he also agreed to accept ’67 lines plus swaps. As I said in my earlier post to fight for a little more land was not worth the isolation. Also, the cabinet has yet to vote on whether to release Arab Israeli prisoners. Ted belman

Decision to release prisoners legitimate. Israel’s increased isolation, Iranian nuclear threat left PM with no choice but to accept Palestinian demands

By Ben Yishai, YNET

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to release Palestinian prisoners stems from strategic and security-related considerations. There is no doubt that the increase in the number of prisoners slated for release and the inclusion of Arab Israelis in the group constitutes a capitulation to American pressure and Palestinian obstinacy. This is why it is so hard to accept Netanyahu’s decision.

But the opposition to such a move is not merely emotional. The decision to release murderers who are citizens of the State of Israel and allow them to return to their homes causes severe damage to Israeli sovereignty and the justice system the country is so proud of. The argument can be made that a precedent has already been set and that the murderers of Israeli civilians have been released in past prisoner exchange deals, but this time it is being done while surrendering to pressure applied by the Palestinian Authority, not by a terror organization, as was the case in the past.

The PA is becoming the representative body of the Arab Israelis – both legally and diplomatically. But a look at the overall picture, while considering all of the options rationally, leads to the conclusion that the prime minister, with the support of the defense minister, made the right decision, for two main reasons.

The first and most important reason has to do with the Iranian nuclear program. Over the next few months, apparently by next spring, Iran will have the capability to produce a nuclear weapon, on all its components, and will become a country on the brink of weapons capability. During this time Israel will be able to stop the Iranian nuclear program, should it receive support and legitimacy from the West, and mainly from the US.

The release of Palestinian prisoners is a reasonable price to pay for something that is so crucial for the State of Israel, at least according to Netanyahu’s security doctrine.

The second reason is Israel’s diplomatic isolation, which has intensified over the past few months and has become a real strategic threat to the State’s economy and the morale of its citizens.

Israel’s increased isolation is the result of the Palestinians’ successful propaganda campaign in the UN’s institutions, coupled with semi-violent unrest in the West Bank. A clear indication that this isolation is becoming an economic and diplomatic threat is the EU’s recent decision regarding the settlements, and there are a number of other similar measures the Palestinians are ready to pursue. Some of these measures relate not only to the European arena, but even to far off Australia.

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Protest outside PMO against release of prisoners (Photo: Gil Yohanan)

The opening of negotiations with the Palestinians is supposed to stop this process – mainly the Palestinian protest maneuvers in the UN – and give Israel some breathing space.

Israeli government officials who took part in the discussions on the release of Palestinian prisoners confirmed that Netanyahu’s decision was based on these two assumptions. But it is safe to assume that the PM had another reason for his decision to release the prisoners: Preventing a violent third intifada in the territories.

Both the IDF and Shin Bet have detected a sharp rise over the past year and a half in the number of incidents involving the throwing of stones and firebombs in the West Bank. For now it appears that the PA is able to contain the violence, but the army and internal security service estimate that an intifada will erupt unless progress is made on the diplomatic front.

In this regard, it is important to note that revolts are taking place in all Arab countries, with varying levels of violence. The Palestinian Authority and Gaza are the exception, and Israel has an interest in preserving this situation, at least for another nine months – at which point the peace negotiations, as well as the release of prisoners, are expected to conclude.

Preventing or delaying an intifada in the territories will obviously help Israel focus on the Iranian threat.

Therefore, the decision regarding the Palestinian prisoners was difficult yet reasonable in light of all the strategic advantages it gives Israel. Plus, as I’ve mentioned, a precedent has been set. Israel has released terrorists on a number of occasions due to external pressure. At least this time around it is being done as a gesture to a man who publicly supports a non-violent struggle.

July 29, 2013 | 106 Comments »

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50 Comments / 106 Comments

  1. @ bernard ross:

    I would have difficulty sending my son to fight for the cause of such an immoral nation of people.

    From chamish:

    The fight is a civil war, make no mistake about it, and the IDF is using its arsenal of repression to win and that includes provocateurs planted within the youths to create outrages aimed at putting the worst face on the rebels.
    But the young rebels are the heroes of Israel today even if they don’t fully understand the whole picture of what they are fighting against. In too short a time, my children will be drafted into the IDF. When that time comes I will be sending the following notice to the IDF’s office of recruitment:
    Sir,
    I proudly served in the IDF for 13 years as a regular and
    reserve soldier. During my service, I did not complain when asked to serve in high-risk operations, including the Lebanon War. So, it is with great sorrow that I inform you that I will not permit my children to serve in this army if they are to be responsible, directly or by proxy, for the removal of my fellow Israelis from their homes, wherever they may be. If you cannot assure me of that, I will take whatever measures are necessary to prevent their recruitment, including sending them out of the country.
    While the heroes of Hebron are standing tall to protect the holy land of their ancestors, my beef runs much deeper. The IDF is being used to protect the interests of outsiders determined to dismember Israel, and the deep criminality of those they installed in power to rule Israel while it lasts. Those who do so rule us are murderers and my children will not defend them.

  2. yamit82 Said:

    2 years ago they had mass demonstrations for better government attention to the middle class, students and to some extent the poor as reflected in government priorities and policies.

    weren’t those considered leftist demos. I had the impression it was whipped up against BB from the outside and didn’t have the support of a broad spectrum of the population. This release issue, if the numbers are real, goes right across the spectrum of political parties and appears to be a massive majority. I should think that is quite a different issue. if over 80% of the population protesting on the street can’t force the PM or govt to step back or resign then I can’t imagine what could?
    yamit82 Said:

    BB gave a little slowly to shut them up which they did

    In this case for a single issue and much greater protest, he would likely respond.
    yamit82 Said:

    Low popularity numbers while holding office

    low popularity generally is not unusual and is not the same as a galvanized super majority protesting in the streets.
    however, there is a situation where a great majority can be polled to disagree and then do nothing:
    when it’s not an important issue to them

  3. honeybee Said:

    Now you can rest with thoughts of barn swallows fliting the blue.

    Thanks for the suggestion, now I can fantasize of barn swallows instead my usual nightly…..!!!!

  4. @ dove:

    Americans are so self-absorbed and culturally insulated they believe everybody loves them or should. Can’t understand why they don’t?

  5. @ honeybee:

    honeybee said – Don’t worrry Dove were not coming for you,except for oil shale you don’t have much and what you have [ oll] your are more then willing to sell.

    Actually you are not up to speed. We have your future life in our hands OIL AND WATER

    It is American arrogance that will be your downfall.

  6. dove Said:

    Not only is the military well armed but so are the people

    Don’t worrry Dove were not coming for you,except for oil shale you don’t have much and what you have [ oll] your are more then willing to sell.

  7. @ yamit82:

    Yamit said Or bombed!!!

    And don’t we know it! Not only is the military well armed but so are the people. England has stepped up to the plate and if it ever came down to that would definitely send in forces to help Canada. It was announced that the new prince that was born may someday be the future King of Canada. How so? If Canada was under threat by the U.S. Canada would go back into the hands of the commonwealth as they have a stake and SAY in Canadas future. Not sure how that would play out in the end with the E.U. Wouldn’t want Canada to be forced either way into a wrong regime. David and Goliath here we go….

  8. @ yamit82:

    more good thoughts. We have a lot of rain and now the sky is filled with barn swallows catching mosquitos,the a marvelous to watch, they dip and twist and turn on a dime.
    A zoomie flew over the place two day ago, you can hear them like rolling thunder in the sky, hearding north west, the sun glinting off its wings.
    Now you can rest with thoughts of barn swallows fliting the blue.

  9. Comment in moderation. I hate to say it Ted but your spam filter is even more intrusive since your return.

    That’s about 7 comments blocked in the last hour.

  10. LtCol Howard Said:

    Secrecy is Tzpi Livini’s secret weapon. Behind closed doors she has urged tough love for Israel.

    There will be leaks if not from Livni than from the Arabs. There always are.

    As soon as some of the Israeli giveaways are made public there will be new elections soon afterwards. BB will have lost his party but will run on the elections in place of referendum then if they win they will push through legislation cancelling the referendum law. BB will probably join Livni and every othe MK who believes they will be not reelected and do a Sharon (and a Livni) Even Lapid who will be trounced in the next elections will combine to form a large centrist core supported by the left in the giveaways.

    The Likud and the right will have been outmaneuvered again Unless they begin to organize today and coalesce behind the most charismatic leader they can find. BB Lapid and livni electorally will be a formidable combination.

    The only one I can see who might pull it off is Lieberman. But he still needs to get through his trial unscathed.

  11. @ yamit82:

    Thank you Sweatheart,now another question,Iam painging a very vicious wolf on attack!!!!!!! In the style of Fritz Shoulder! How do say wolf in Hebrew? Or blue wolf. I can alway call it Yamit 82,con su primiso,Ducito. Tex gave ,e a big wet kiss today, he said, this is from Yamit. He says you inspire him. Just a laugh in a difficult time.

  12. @ yamit82:

    Yamit said – Is there a better candidate or potential candidate that would be better suited to protect the interests of the USA?

    I am not an American so that question would be better suited to the Americans. I am very well aware of protecting personal interests as living in Canada we also feel the heat from the American admin – and not just this current admin. Their administrations always uses bully type tactics if they think a country wouldn’t be able to defend itself without their help. Not exactly the friendliest ally. Canada has better friends than that. They come from the perspective of join em or you will be beat.

  13. @ bernard ross:

    Bernard ross said –
    However, where you have over 80% of the population against release then you must wonder that there is no protest in the street from those 80%+ and the govt is not under much pressure from party, members or electorate

    True. As Jews we are sometimes a little slow to respond – just like showing up late at shul and thinking nothing of it. I am giving the benefit of the doubt and hoping that there will be a public outcry. Ted, Yamit, Shy, any word on the ground??

  14. @ bernard ross:

    Been there and done that. Never worked in the past and no reason to believe it would work today. 2 years ago they had mass demonstrations for better government attention to the middle class, students and to some extent the poor as reflected in government priorities and policies. BB gave a little slowly to shut them up which they did and then did not implement most of his promises.

    What he did implement added to the big budget deficit we are struggling with today.

    Only a serious threat to toppling him can illicit any move to change.

    Low popularity numbers while holding office here is meaningless if the PM has the faction and knesset votes. Nobody politically in Israel feels accountable to the public as they are not directly elected by the people.

    In Israel a PM can call new elections, be deposed by the party he represents and someone else taking over as PM (has never happened), or he can be brought down by a vote of no confidence. (today very difficult).

  15. @ honeybee:

    “The Obama administration earlier this year expanded its secret war in Somalia, stepping up assistance for federal and regional Somali intelligence agencies that are allied against the country’s Islamist insurgency. It’s a move that’s not only violating the terms of an international arms embargo, according to U.N. investigators. The escalation also could be a signal that Washington’s signature victory against al-Qaeda’s most powerful African ally may be in danger of unraveling.”

  16. @ honeybee:

    Is the U.S. Ramping Up a Secret War in Somalia?
    Islamists in East Africa were supposed to be on the run. But the raids and spy flights keep increasing.

    The Obama administration earlier this year expanded its secret war in Somalia, stepping up assistance for federal and regional Somali intelligence agencies that are allied against the country’s Islamist insurgency. It’s a move that’s not only violating the terms of an international arms embargo, according to U.N. investigators. The escalation also could be a signal that Washington’s signature victory against al-Qaeda’s most powerful African ally may be in danger of unraveling.

  17. dove Said:

    BERNARD SAID IN my view Israel is plagued with short shortsightedness and blinded by tactical details

    I agree with you.

  18. dove Said:

    Does BB really think that this is a smart move?? Is there not another candidate that would be better suited to protect the BEST interests of Israel??

    Is there a better candidate or potential candidate that would be better suited to protect the interests of the USA? At least Obama got well over 50% of the popular vote. The Likud with BB got less than 20% and with Lieberman got less than 30%. Today BB’s personal popularity is probably less than 20% but his numbers are inflated by support from the Arabs and the left.

  19. dove Said:

    BERNARD SAID IN my view Israel is plagued with short shortsightedness and blinded by tactical details
    I disagree. It is not Israelis per se.

    Notice that I said Israel and not Israelis. i agree that most of the fault is the successive govts, which I regularly write. However, where you have over 80% of the population against release then you must wonder that there is no protest in the street from those 80%+ and the govt is not under much pressure from party, members or electorate..

  20. I used to have respect for Israels senior military analyst: Ron ben Yeshai.

    He used to supply independent analysis usually based on real facts.

    What we have above are regurgitation of BB’s and other media talking heads regurgitation of spin put out by BB and his flunkies.

    There will not and cannot be an intifada unless the security establishment in Israel and our politicians allow it.

    Here too Israels moves seem to be micro managed by Washington. Even if the release of prisoners diffused a potential intifada? What will happen when the talks break down? Calm in the territories? Accepting this stupid argument pre-assumes if it happens it will be as bad as the last or that we will be helpless in defending ourselves and that an Intifada is worse for Israel than all of the negatives of releasing the worst murderers in our prisons for nothing in return.

    It never occurred to spoon-fed idiots like Ron Ben Yishai, that an intifada could be for Israel heaven sent if we know how to take advantage of it. Problem is he is an atheist Labor party socialist hack and an Oslo Groupie. He used to be able to separate his personal politics from factual analysis. look what old age has done to him? He should now be retired not so much because of age but because he no longer is relevant.

  21. Secrecy is Tzpi Livini’s secret weapon. Behind closed doors she has urged tough love for Israel.

    She cannot be trusted. She is a sellout.

    Her game plan is simple. Make commitments and then there is no withdrawal for Israel ,even when the Palestinians fail to complete their agreed-upon steps.

    Remember the deal with Hezbollah….. No enforcement. Remember Obama’s statement the use of poison gas by Syria would be a red line. …No follow through. And there are many, many, many more.

    Israel is outnumbered at the table. Then, after the deal is nearly struck, Obama moves in with additional pressure on Israel to “achieve lasting peace”.

    Israel, you have lived this horror before. Welcome Israel to Oslo 2.

  22. @ Laura:

    Laura did you watch the video I sent to Barnard and Yamit 82? I think you should ,especially your people immigrated from Poland.

  23. So bibi and his cohorts chose humiliation over isolation! What a bad joke.
    So now we are the laughing stock of the entire world.
    And kerry/obama ride high and victorious. They won the battle, and now they can do with Israel as they please.
    And Israelis sit around instead of Rising up against this outrage!
    In fact, all Jewry should be rising up, as the land of Israel was bestowed on the Jewish people world wide, as the “National home for the Jewish People” by the Balfour Declaration.

  24. @ yamit82:

    Yamit said BB stopped it because the micro war conflicted with the coming elections some 2 months hence.

    Does BB really think that this is a smart move?? Is there not another candidate that would be better suited to protect the BEST interests of Israel??

  25. @ dove:

    BB stopped it because the micro war conflicted with the coming elections some 2 months hence. You can’t have successful elections with missiles falling on your cities and people and expect good results at the polls. Ordering in the troops might have cause many Israeli casualties and nothing pisses Israelis off more than dead soldiers, especially from a government that is unwilling to use sufficient force to end it quickly and with minimum casualties on our side.

    In those those 3 weeks Israel continued to supply Hamas and Gaza all that they needed to sustain themselves. We even gave them a half billion dollars. Israel recognized Hamas in concluding a deal with them, essentially cancelled or lightened the embargo that caused all the uproar with Turkey and the UN and is perceived by everyone in and out of the ME to have lost another encounter with terrorists.

    Now why would BB and Lieberman want to go to elections with that on the public’s mind . As it is the Likud and Lieberman lost 13-15 seats in the Knesset largely due to their mishandling of that micro conflict. In the end Hamas and their Iranian advisers figured out how to defeat Iron Dome and that was by overloading it. Shooting more missiles simultaneously than the system could defend against.

  26. @ bernard ross:
    BERNARD SAID IN my view Israel is plagued with short shortsightedness and blinded by tactical details

    I disagree. It is not Israelis per se. It is THE GOVERNMENT. During the last uprising when Hamas was firing rockets into Israel the IDF did a good job at disabling them. They were on a roll and would have kept going….problem is that they were too successful and the ‘CRY BABY POLITICIANS’ put a stop to it. Same thing happened during the last Israeli/Palestinian conflict. MOST of the support for Israel was ‘Get er done’. It was disappointing that the IDF was stopped. Rediculous!! Get ready for another world war.

  27. Muslim Brotherhood set for million man march
    Why cant the Israeli right organize the same thing?
    Where is this majority of electorate and party I keep hearing about?
    all I see is the repeated specter of actions defying majorities and majorities accepting the swindle.
    If Israelis cannot protest on what over 80% want then what possible hope is there on contentious and close issues?
    the writing is on the wall.

  28. reply 2 to Yamit in moderation (second one in mod) I now have 47 on last page and 2 on this page in moderation

  29. yamit82 Said:

    Pro-settlement hawk Ze’ev Elkin

    My solution was that the right needs to think about hasbara and diplomatic activism.

    so, what is his diplomatic activism as he is in the foregin miniters position? apparently voting and giving interviews is all there is. Why is he not coming up with detailed plans and organizing their execution. As a pro settlement hawk what is he actually doing to improve the latest attack on the settlers from the EU. I think I could do a much better job of organizing specific and detailed plans of action in aid of YS and the settlers. I would not consider my job done because I made a vote or gave an interview touting my narrative with no action.

    By rights, said Elkin, he ought to have been a minister in the government. When it became clear that there was no room for him, he said, he was offered the deputy ministerial post of his choice, and chose foreign.

    that statement says a lot.
    Why aren’t likud, HY, eldad, feiglin,etc organizing NGO’s to raise funds and come up with specific detailed plans in diplomatic activity and lawfare? why aren’t all thes people on the right uniting in some way, even in NGO’s, to take real action and not just giving interviews and visiting the Mount?