Israel should refuse to discuss the day after and she shouldn’t agree to a ceasefire.This applied in Dec of last year and still applies.
By Ted Belman, AM THINKER Dec 29/23
At first glance, Israel appears to have no choice but to buckle under US pressure. After all she needs the resupply of munitions and the protection of the US veto at the UNSC.
The NYT reports The U.S. wants Israel to use elite forces to rescue hostages and kill Hamas leaders.
“Mr. Biden wants Israel to switch to more precise tactics within three weeks, or soon thereafter. The officials asked for anonymity to discuss the president’s thinking.
“The new phase that the Americans envision would involve smaller groups of elite forces that would move in and out of population centers in Gaza, carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said.”
But I submit they do have a choice. Time is on her side. Let us assume that Israel switches to the tactics demanded by Biden but takes her time in finishing off Hamas. In the meantime, Israel should agree to nothing. She should refuse to discuss the day after and she shouldn’t agree to a ceasefire.
If so, it is Biden who is left with few choices. Since Israel is abiding by Biden’s demands but slow walking the war, Biden has no option but to wait for the destruction of Hamas however long it takes. The destruction of Hamas is central to Biden’s plans to advance the Two-State Solution. Since Israel would be following Biden’s demands, Biden will have to continue to veto any calls for a ceasefire. To my mind, Biden would be stymied. His dreams of advancing the TSS on the back of the Gaza War or reforming the PA would be put on hold until Hamas is destroyed which could take a year, particularly, if Israel takes it real slow in the name of protecting her soldiers.
Thus, all Biden’s plans would be for naught. He would find himself in six months in the election season which will cause him to restrain himself, not Israel. Also, Israel could look forward to discussing the day after with a Trump administration.
On the other hand, Caroline Glick reports:
“They (Biden admin) do not seek the eradication of Hamas and the return of the hostages. They seek the end of the war and the return of the hostages. And at the end of the war, they want to rebuild Gaza. They want to use the war’s end as a means to compel Israel into a “peace process.” The goal of that process is to establish a Palestinian state in Gaza, and Judea and Samaria, led by terrorists from the Palestinian Authority which, like Hamas, seeks the annihilation of the Jewish state.”
Assuming that is the case, Israel should still not agree to a ceasefire. Instead, she should follow Biden’s advice:
“The new phase that the Americans envision would involve smaller groups of elite forces that would move in and out of population centers in Gaza, carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said.”
In addition, following such tactics would reduce Israel’s need for resupply and that would render her more immune to US pressure.
If Israel does not agree to a ceasefire, Gaza cannot be rebuilt and the Gazans can not return to their destroyed homes. They will be refugees or, at a minimum, displaced persons. Israel should not cooperate with rebuilding Gaza or humanitarian efforts. She can argue, rightly so, that Hamas is not yet destroyed.
Israel’s lack of cooperation would put the ball back in the court of the UN. It will be responsible for Gaza and the Gazans before the conflict is over. This will put them in a bind.
Wikipedia reports
“On 26 February 2016, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2268 that demanded all parties to comply with the terms[4] of a U.S.-Russian deal on a “cessation of hostilities“.[5] The cease-fire started on 27 February 2016 at 00:00 (Damascus time).[6] The ceasefire does not include attacks on UN-designated terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and the al-Nusra Front.[7][8]”
Similarly here, any ceasefire the UNSC wishes to pass, could exclude attacks on Hamas.
During this time, Israel could demobilize much of her army and thus return her economy to normal. Of course, the IDF would remain on the northern border. Such a policy would further deter Hezbollah. It may even make it possible for many northern residents to return to their homes.
And she could search the world for munitions and set up munitions production in Israel. With every passing month, Israel would be stronger and Biden weaker.
In fact, the search has already begun. Glick noted that YNET recently reported:
“According to the report, the Defense Ministry is launching a crash program with Israel’s military industries and major industrialists to make Israel independent in everything related to ordnance. In the initial phase, Israel will begin producing bombs for its aircraft. Jerusalem also intends to expand its production of tank and artillery shells, as well as assault rifles and bullets. Separately, there is increased discussion regarding the establishment of a missile force as an independent arm of the IDF. The force would reduce reliance on the air force and develop more versatile, more easily defended missile launch platforms and massively expand Israel’s missile and drone arsenals.”
Nir Barkat, a potential successor to Netanyahu, recently said:
“It is unthinkable that we would endanger our soldiers, and send them exposed
in all kinds of buildings, without having bombed them beforehand.
“Surrendering to any external pressure, even if it is from our best friends,
is a grave mistake for which we pay heavy prices.
“Our role as the government of Israel is, first and foremost, to take care of
the vital interests of the State of Israel.”
“You must not give up because of any pressure.”
Netanyahu said, on the morning of Dec 24th,
“Last night, I spoke again with President Biden. I appreciate the steadfast US position – which supports our war effort – in the UN Security Council. I told President Biden yesterday that we will fight until absolute victory – however long that takes. The US understands this,”
He dismissed reports that the Biden Administration has been handicapping Israel’s efforts to prosecute the war:
“I have seen erroneous reports to the effect that the US prevented, and is preventing, us from operational actions in the region; this is incorrect. Israel is a sovereign state. Our decisions in the war are based on our operational considerations, and I will not expand further. They are not dictated by external pressure. The decision on how to use our forces is an independent decision of the IDF and nobody else.”
Almost all of Israel agrees.
And Edward Luttwak, a strategist and historian known for his works on grand strategy, geoeconomics, military history, and international relations. wrote Why Israel can’t accept a ceasefire
“But the unavoidable reality is that Israel cannot end its offensive, nor even accept protracted ceasefires in exchange for hostages.”
There you have it, Israel, hang tight.
I agree with Mr. Zorn. Great perspective of the issues and situation, Mr. Ted. As per earlier comments this war isn’t over yet.
@Peloni we will find out what is occurring.
@Bear
The JPOST article cited by Ted describes a draw down to numbers which are “much closer to the pre-war levels (though not all the way back down.)” This is neither troop rotations nor redploments, but a significant reduction in Israel’s deployed armed forces, according to the JPOST. I also read over the weekend, I think it was yesterday, that Bibi referenced sending troops home in the coming weeks.
The soldiers need to be rotated to stay fresh for one and second the northern front is liable to explode!
Reports today indicate that what I suggested is actually happening. Troops are being withdrawn and the conflict is de-intensifying. There is talk of it lasting for the rest of the year.
Is Israel’s shift in Gaza war due to global pressure?
Well said, Ted Belman. A good contribution.
Biden watches to many action movies
Arutz Sheva alos published this article today.
Perceptive insight. Great article, Ted.
It is worth reviewing the US – Israel balance in the 50’s when Israel was a lot poorer, smaller and using left overs from WW II and 1st generation French jets.
Israel was leaned on to withdraw from Sinai in Jan ’49 almost instantly but got recognition of a sort by agreement to armstice talks in Rhodes. However at the time she was an unkown quantiity and no makeweight for any great power.
In 1957 it took the US three months to lever Israel out of Sinai because already Israel had oil from Venzuela (?) and, “possession is nine points of the law” and the IDF had done a model demo of a campaign in Oct ’56. Eisenhower was proving to the USSR he was the paramount chief of the West and did not wish to be too close to the Soviet ally Egypt,
In ’67 Israel could lean on the Cold War to its advantage quite apart from being ever stronger and pointing to the previous two above withdrawals NOT having led to peace agreements.
Most of the article makes sense but eventually both the Pals and Israel have to make a peace and Israel would do well to tell the powers, the UN and the press to lean a bit on the Pals – by cutting out UNWRA by transferring its estate and employees to the local municipalities.
Further cut the aid till the Pals comply as Eisenhower threatened to cut US Jews’ charity in ’56. The US at least does not need Arab oil.
Lean on the UN to cut the committees on Palestine by withholding subs and by obstruction even as the OIC and Pals indulges obstruction for Palestine. The US does not need Arab oil and the tankers can go round Africa to Rotterdam.
And planes and helicopters!
https://youtu.be/DlnOcZK892E
@Ted
Great article Ted. Israel must seek out her own destiny, provide for her own security, and provide for her own people. Biden wants this war ended soon, but Israel has made it clear, crystal clear, that this war will continue for months and more likely years. This will be made all the more certain given the parameters which Washington is claiming they never made, while few will be so gullible as to believe that they did not. Given these constraints, Israel must play the hand she has been dealt, at least til the next card is handed to her. Hopefully it will be a Trump card.
Agreed. We must do as originally decided. Pnly do so using all means applicable for a harsh conclusion