By Lt Col Howard
It must be emphasized to the world and to all Israelis that Israel is at war and that Israel is fighting for its very survival.
Although the Iron Dome anti-rocket shield was successful in largely protecting the major Israeli cities, there were tragic casualties and regrettably more are likely when hostilities continue . The high cost of Iron Dome ($40,000 per missile?) and it’s limited number make it a ineffective weapon against a low-cost missile saturated attack. Also, if a sufficient quantity of Iron Dome missiles are not held in reserve ,then later when long-range missiles are fired against Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, etc., they will go unchallenged. Iron Dome is not an effective long-range strategy. Defense rarely is an effective long-range strategy.
THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ISRAEL’S SURVIVAL is a nuclear armed Iran. (The recent attack on Israel by Irani’s proxy in Gaza, Hamas ,should disabuse anyone who hopes for the “rationality” of the Islamists.) Thus, Israel must maintain a capability to attack Iran’s nuclear program if and when it deems it to be in Israel’s interest to do so. Even a few years delay in Iran’s nuclear progress might change the situation radically in the Middle East .To have as free a hand as possible ,interference from Hamas, Hezbollah or any other pro-Iranian entity must be squelched..
A 2ND IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE is to effectively convince Hezbollah that any attack on Israel (including kidnappings, over the border raids, explosive tunnels, missile and rocket assaults, etc. )would exact a catastrophic price from Hezbollah and from the Lebanese infrastructure. The expected retaliation should be so severe that the clear message to Hezbollah is: “don’t even think of it”. This will free Israel’s hands for action against Iran and for action against Hamas and Hezbollah
A 3RD IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE was to stop the current Hamas’ missile attacks and to make sure that Hamas never again attacks Israel (through rockets and missiles, raids, kidnappings, explosive tunnels, etc.)
Anything less than accomplishing the 3 objectives (identified above) will be an Israeli defeat.
In any active combat situation, Israel has a limited time window. The US administration nearly always threatens to slow down Israel’s resupply chain.{ The US administration contacted Israel to “warn” Israel against conducting a ground offensive. Interestingly, certain military analysts believe that a ground offensive is the only way of halting current and future missile attacks against Israel.} Soon the world demands an end to Israel’s military efforts. Whatever Israel does not accomplish during these brief periods of time will remain a sword hanging over Israel’s head which will be exercised by her enemies in the future.
Israel must recognize and clearly explain to the United States and to the rest of the world that in every cease-fire to date the terrorists have continued accumulating more effective and lethal weapons to employ against Israel (as well as against the United States and against the rest of the world).
Israel must therefore resist calls for a cease-fire until such time as their enemies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and various elements in the Palestinian Authority undertake to cease their aggression.
There must be a clear understanding (by Israel, by Hamas, by Hezbollah, by the United States, by England, and by the rest of the world) that any breach will result in harsh “disproportionate” Israeli responses including the targeted killings of those responsible for initiating attacks. In the absence of such a clear understanding
an enforced cease fire will be perceived as a major victory for Hamas and Israel’s citizens will (sooner or later) return to the life of terror they endured since the first Kassams were launched a decade ago.
Israel should announce that it’s retaliation/prevention policy is “ strictly proportional”. Just keep announcing it and then the media will repeat it.
The PUBLIC logic is simple. You are obligating yourself to do enough but no more (AND NO LESS) than is necessary. And, If Hamas , Hezbollah, etc. again attack Israel ,then by definition, you have not exercised sufficient force. Therefore, under the doctrine of “proportionality” Israel must increase the intensity of the Israeli attacks until Hamas, Hezbollah, etc. cease all of their offensive actions.
Hamas is no longer a terrorist faction. It is in every respect an independent state the majority of whose citizens enthusiastically support the terrorist initiatives and missile launches initiated by its leaders committed to Israel’s annihilation. Hezbollah is a significant and possibly dominating factor in the Lebanese government.
Bargaining theory is useful. In poker one objective is to force your opponent to abandon the game (or to lose all of his assets to you.). Gradual escalation sucks both you and him in deeper. Usually deeper then you have to go, if stead of escalating gradually, you escalate dramatically. In poker you would say “ I see your dollar and I raise you $10,000.” Israel must raise the price so high that the message is clear to Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.: “don’t even think about firing more missiles since our “proportionate response” would be immediate, fierce and very costly to you and to the population that you represent.
In the immediate response to the 1st attack, Israel should begin systematically destroying obvious and essential infrastructure. Examples include bridges over bodies of water. Key intersections. Shopping malls. Electrical and water grids., commercial properties ,manufacturing properties ,etc.
IN THE SHORT RUN THIS APPROACH MIGHT INCREASE PALESTINIAN OR LEBANESE CASUALTIES. ……
HOWEVER …..IN THE LONG RUN IT WILL REDUCE TOTAL CASUALTIES SINCE IT WILL END THE ATTACKS SOONER AND PREVENT FUTURE ATTACKS.
“LT COL HOWARD” is a military analyst .
He has been a White House adviser under both Democratic and Republican administrations. He has been stationed at the Pentagon and with field units. He has advised the national Security Council , the State Department, the CIA and numerous “think tanks” . He has served on military advisory groups assisting Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. And he has participated on joint projects involving health and economic development with the Palestinian authorities.
Originally he was hopeful of a “2 state solution.Now,based on his first-hand experience, he is fearful for the survival of Israel.
Very nice to hear from Lt Col Howard.
My priorities are elsewhere. Cut off all electricity and imports from Israel into Gaza. Retake the border between Gaza and Egypt. Speed up all construction in J&S. Complete the E-1 area ASAP so there is no more discussion of the “2 state solution”.
I came to the same conclusion regarding the Iron Dome. while it has its benefits for defense, defense only does not win wars!! The idea that Israel should separate from the US by refusing the credits or other assistance that limits its ability of action is a good idea. Ironically, this would be better for both countries. America would get an ally in the Middle East who would be acting much more independently and be better able to serve as a bulwhark against Islamic terrorists which would make both countries more safe and secure.
Lt Colonel Howard; I agree with everything you have said. You obviously have a very good grasp of strategy and your thinking clearly indicates you are truly a professional. I served in the US Army in the medical command but have always enjoyed being an “armchair general” and love military history. Well known, successful military leaders such as Napoleon in the past have recognized a thorough knowledge of military history is essential to being a successful strategist. I believe a good historical analogy to the situation both Israel and the US face today is the Pacific War in WWII. This is because the leadership of Moslem nations such as Iran is similar to the military leadership of Japan in WWII in their intense level of fanaticism and willingness to allow their countries to suffer incredibly amounts of civilian casualties. I felt when OIF and OEF were initiated to truly be victorious it would probably be necessary to inflict similar levels of destruction on the major Muslim supremacist nations especially Iran the US had to inflict on Japan including, if necessary the use of nuclear weapons. Almost nothing was accomplished after more than 10 years of OIF and OEF, in part due to the malignant effect of the World’s Mainstream Media. Colonel (retired) Ralph Peters who in my opinion seems to have a good grasp of military strategy, stated a major requirement for victory by the US was a news blackout to allow the US military to inflict whatever destruction and civilian casualties were necessary to finish off (convince) the Muslim supremacists that they could never defeat the West especially the US. Now especially after Obama became President, the opposite situation prevails. Countries such as Iran have absolutely no fear of the US and regard the US as a paper tiger. I agree with your thesis that for Israel to finally end the 60 plus years of continuous war it has had to fight to survive , they must inflict on its’ enemies whatever level of destruction is necessary to convince them they will never be able to destroy Israel. Israel has been partially successful in my opinion but as you said it was not allowed to finish off its’ enemies and now is being prevented from even attacking Iran. One partial success was surprisingly the 2006 war in Lebanon which all the ignorant, clueless journalists pronounced as a victory by Hezbollah. But although Hezbollah is much better equipped and trained than Hamas, to my knowledge they have not fired any rockets at Israel since that war while the much weaker Hamas fires rockets on a daily basis. Another partial success was the defeat of Egypt in 1973. I had expected Morsi and the Muslim brotherhood to tear up the treaty with Israel immediately upon seizing power. But Morsi while being somewhat hostile towards Israel, doesn’t appear very enthusiast about having another war with Israel. Egyptian general officers, despite all their nonsensical statements that they achieved victory in 73 realized even when equipped with better weapons than Israel and having enough tanks to fight battles which matched the Battle of Kursk, still suffered a terrible defeat. Only The threat of Soviet intervention prevented the annihilation of Egyptian 3rd army which constituted most of their best equipped divisions. For Israel to carry out your excellent plan there are several requirements in my opinion. Israel must end acceptance of the $2-3 billion/year of military credits to purchase American made weapons (25% can be spent outside the US). They certain must continue to carry out joint ventures such as the development of Arrow 3 and accept some monetary aid such as that offered for the purchase of more Iron Dome batteries. But the several billion dollars in mostly credits every year allows politicians such as Obama to veto legitimate defensive actions by Israel such as dealing with Iran. A second requirement is as much as possible follow Colonel Peter’s very intelligent suggestion of a news blackout. They can’t stop reporters from reporting from Arab countries but can ban them from Israel and muzzle Israeli media outlets such as Haaretz. The media has been the enemy of both the US military (since Vietnam) as well as the enemy of Israel with their insanely biased reporting. The media has been the Arab’s best general in conflicts with Israel.
When Israel stops being the puppet of the US (by refusing the yearly aid and credits) they will be treated hopefully more like an ally. Not having the US veto Israeli defense contractors from trading with countries such as China would allow an expansion of Israeli defense industries and thus allow it to meet another requirement which is to expand their domestic defense industrial sector in order to not be dependent on any foreign nation to the point where another nation can stop Israel from defending themselves. A perfect example of their current predicament was being prevented from invading Gaza by the Obama administration. A larger overseas market will allow Israeli defense companies to enjoy greater economy of scale. Once these conditions are met Israel can, as you suggest, better resist the inevitable efforts by the usual suspects to stop Israel from destroying their enemies .Especially concerning Iran, Israel may need to inflict a level of destruction similar to that inflicted by the US on Japan. The leaderships of both WWII Japan and present day Iran are similar. However, Japan despite their insane fanaticism had their “breaking point”. Israel must create , in my opinion, the conditions necessary to inflict enough destruction on its’ enemies like Iran so the someone with some sanity (if they have any sane leaders) will conclude as the Emperor of Japan concluded the amount of suffering especially by civilians reached an unacceptable level.