Stratfor.
Dec 07, 2007
Summary
The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program was not well received in Israel to say the least. Though Israel recognizes the long-term benefit of a U.S.-Iranian meeting of minds for its own national security, it is not at all convinced that these negotiations are going to leave the neighborhood worry-free from a nuclear Iran. And so begins the spoiler process.
Analysis
Israel has invited chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen to Israel for a one-day visit Dec. 9 with Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
This will not be a very pleasant meeting.
The Dec. 4 release of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has effectively blindsided Israeli policymakers. Whether you believe the NIE was the outcome of a nasty bureaucratic spat between the intelligence community and the Bush administration or a politicized realignment of U.S. policy designed to coax Iran into fruitful negotiations over Iraq (and Stratfor believes the latter), the implications are indisputable. Simply put, the United States no longer can make a viable case for military action against Iran. The United States is still pressing on the sanctions front to have a stick to use in negotiations, but Washington’s war-mongering campaign has lost its credibility.
As a result, U.S.-Iranian talks over Iraq have been kicked into high gear, and have a real chance of culminating in a solid deal. The Iranian Foreign Ministry recently announced that the fourth round of U.S.-Iranian public negotiations will be held in early January 2008. That announcement came against a backdrop of significant deal precursors taking place in Iraq. These include the Shiite-led Iraqi government’s work on a long-term bilateral pact with Washington likely to include plans for permanent military bases and on a plan to reintegrate Sunni patrols into the formal security apparatus.
Israel understands that a U.S.-Iranian meeting of the minds will be a step in the right direction as far as Israel’s ability to soothe its relations with Tehran, but Israel is not convinced these negotiations will result in a deal under which the Iranians would surrender their nuclear ambitions entirely in exchange for political concessions in Iraq. On the contrary, Iran aims to retain some level of an enrichment program as part of any deal it strikes on Iraq — something that simply hits too close to home for Israel to cope with.
Israel can, and likely will, play the spoiler card in Washington’s negotiations with Iran. When Israel presents its own assessment of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the intent will be to reshape U.S. perceptions, particularly within defense circles, on the Iranian nuclear threat. And meeting Mullen, who falls in the anti-U.S.-Iranian war camp, is a logical place for Israel to start.
The more divisions that can be sown in Washington over how to deal with Iran, the greater Israel’s chances of scuttling the negotiation process and sustaining military pressure on Iran. At the same time, Israel can interfere with Washington’s Annapolis agenda for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute by dragging its feet in the negotiations and approving new settlement expansions to coincide with U.S. diplomatic visits to the region.
Left unchecked, the BBC, al-Guardian, Reuters and the rest of the anti-Semitic stable of propagandists who vilify the Jews of Israel and the settlement communities will continue with their libelous stories and agenda-driven reporting.
Israel should immediately take at least three steps to mitigate the damage done by the Peace Now/B’Tselem/British Press tag team.
1) Officially station all foreign press in Sderot. Let the reporters sleep where the rockets fall and see if it doesn’t alter their POV.
2) Make it illegal for all Israeli NGOs to receive funding from abroad. Peace Now and B’Tselem will starve without their Swiss and British sugar daddies.
3) Support the creation of a private domestic watchdog tasked with immediately filing suit against any organization which slanders a Fund, Charity, NGO, or Jewish community as in this case.
Bankrupting nefarious organizations is a tried and true method for ending their immoral activities.
It is about time – I am tired of the lies generated and originating from left wing groups and used by academics, churches and other groups to boycott and scorn Israel and circulating lies that makes Jew hate even more acceptable.
This case, the al-Dura case and anything that corrects false information about Israel are all kept silent by the press and this silence works in favor of the Israel-bashers.
Thanks to Israpundit for bringing out the truth and fighting the false and malicious lies that flow so recklessly and hatefully from the leftists’ tongues and pens.
I agree with Laura on this the was a report tailor made for Bush and THE BLACK PLAGUE(condi)! The double cross was in all the time and America is just beginning to show its cards Israel Already folded!
Packer you can’t separate the two. Israeli military Leadership is the Army for our purpose of discussion. and you can’t separate confidence in IDF from the Political Echelon!.New Army leadership is essentially the old Army leadership with minor adjustments. Army is now un proven commodity? Barak wanted DM portfolio to use for political enhancement and his numbers are falling!A few short years ago the IDF was polling in the 90s range for public confidence and now just over 50% and holding.
Randy Bolton is being loyal to Bush and the republicans and for Stat: PAYBACK TIME AS FAR AS HE IS CONCERNED>
I had suspected that the administration made some deal with Iran to quiet things down in Iraq in exchange for the U.S. to let up over Iran’s nukes. So Randy don’t be so sure the intelligence community was attempting to undermine Bush, though I’m sure that is what Bush would like conservatives to believe. However it just may be the Bush administration’s own policy decision to ease up on Iran. With the presidential election less than a year away, the administration needs for Iraq to be stabilized to help the GOP, hence the above negotiations taking place with Iran regarding Iraq combined with the release of the NIE report.
Comments one and two are both correct. There is a lack of confidence, however, that could change abruptly with the right leadership taking power. This will eventually happen but the longer it takes the deeper the hole Israel is digging for itself. To make matters worse, the other nations who say they support Israel’s rights as a nation are in hole with their shovels. It boggles the mind that so many Israelis don’t understand or see what actions they must take if they are to survive.
As for the NIE report. You must realize that there are hostile leftist forces in the US State Dept. and intelligence community. The report was fabricated and released by “doves” who are driven by the fear of a US attack on Iran by the Administration. They probably believe Iran’s program is at a stage where there is still time to stall until the election next year when Bush will leave office, and a new president which will workout a diplomatic solution will take power.
John Bolton understands this and has already come out calling the report ‘a quasi-coup against the president.’
“Too much of the intelligence community is engaging in policy formulation rather than “intelligence” analysis, and too many in Congress and the media are happy about it,” Bolton said Thursday in an article published in the Washington Post.
The EU is lost; the US is paralyzed by political polarization; Israel is alone and without leadership. I pray I am wrong, but it appears that the situation may deteriorate until a large scale of death and destruction presents itself. There then may be a strong surge of self defense but by that point the situation will be very critical. Why are the black looming clouds always disregarded in mass before the storm?
I think you are mistaken in your comment, the public in Israel has no doubt in the ability of Israel to defend itself. The loss of confidence is in the political leadership and in the army General Staff at the time of the second Lebanese war. Part of that confidence has been renewed since the shake up of the General Staff and I see a glint of new hope with the renewed army leadership.
The rank and file is still as motivated and professional as ever when it comes to defense of the State.
TOO LATE FOR SANCTIONS AND NEGOTIATIONS! THERE WAS NEVER A CHANCE FOR IT IN THE REAL WORLD! Due to fiasco of last Lebanon war the general public here has lost its confidence in IDF and latest POLLS show this decline in confidence.
Without American support and assistance, and even though the public understands the nature and results of the existential threat a NUKE armed Iran poses to Israel, they say no to Israel going it alone! This is first time in my memory that the General Public is caught between a rock and a hard place.