Israel Braces For The Iranian Rain Of Fire

Strategy Page

November 5, 2010: The head of Israeli military intelligence warned his political superiors that the next major war Israel encountered would likely result in much higher Israeli casualties, especially to civilians. There is also growing concern about Russia selling advanced anti-aircraft systems to Syria, which could pass them on to Iran.

All this could be traced back to preparations Iran has been making for over a decade. Using their oil wealth, and weapons smuggling network, Iran has armed Syria, Hezbollah (the Shia militia in southern Lebanon) and Hamas (the Palestinian terrorist group that runs Gaza) with over 50,000 rockets, plus numerous other weapons. Most of the rockets are short range (about 10 kilometers), but several thousand have a much longer reach, and can hit targets throughout Israel.

The Iranian master plan is for Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran to simultaneously fire as many missiles and rockets into Israel as they can. Even if there are no ground forces to follow up such an attack, the casualties (civilian and military) in Israel would be seen as a great Islamic victory, and would demoralize the Israelis. While Israeli defensive moves could do great damage to Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, Iran considers it a reasonable plan. Hezbollah, Syria and Hamas are not so sure, but Iran already has all the rockets and missiles in place.

Israeli military planners have seen this coming. Over the last three years, Israel has been revising its civil defense plans, and how to deal with the growing arsenal of rockets and ballistic missiles aimed at it. The latest change is the announcement that the military is dispersing its stocks of supplies, equipment and spare parts to a larger number of (better protected) locations.

The basic defense plan assumes a future war with Syria, and gives the local officials an idea of what to expect. Currently, the Israelis estimate that there would be as many as 3,300 Israeli casualties (including up to 200 dead) if Syria tried to use its long range missiles against Israel. If the Syrians used chemical warheads, Israeli casualties could be as high as 16,000. Over 200,000 Israelis would be left homeless, and it’s believed about a 100,000 would seek to leave the country.

Israel now assumes that Iran would also fire some of its ballistic missiles as well, armed with conventional warheads. But the big danger is Syria, which is a client state of Iran. Syria has underground storage and launch facilities for its arsenal of over a thousand SCUD missiles. Armed with half ton high explosive and cluster bomb warheads, the missiles have ranges of 500-700 kilometers. Syria also has some 90 older Russian Frog-7 missiles (70 kilometer range, half ton warhead) and 210 more modern Russian SS-21 missiles (120 kilometer range, half ton warhead) operating with mobile launchers. There are also 60 mobile SCUD launchers. The Syrians have a large network of camouflaged launching sites for the mobile launchers. Iran and North Korea have helped Syria build underground SCUD manufacturing and maintenance facilities. The Syrian missiles are meant to hit Israeli airfields, missile launching sites and nuclear weapons sites, as well as population centers. Syria hopes to do enough damage with a missile strike to cripple Israeli combat capability.

Israel has long been aware of the Syrian capabilities and any war with Syria would probably result in some interesting attacks on the Syrian missile network. The SCUD is a liquid fuel missile and takes half an hour or more to fuel and ready for launch. So underground facilities are a major defensive measure against an alert and astute opponent like Israel.

But Syria has been adding a lot of solid fuel ballistic missiles to its inventory, and recently transferred some of these to Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Hezbollah and Syria would likely coordinate an attack on Israel. Hamas, in Gaza, is a semi-client of Iran, and might be persuaded to join in as well.

No unclassified government planning documents have discussed what Israel would do in response to such an attack, but in the past, Israel has threatened to use nukes against anyone who fired chemical weapons at Israel (which does not have any chemical weapons). But current plans appear to try and keep it non-nuclear for as long as possible.

Barry Chamish paints the war in vivid colours.

Israel commentator Emanuel Winston is panicking already:

“They will target Israeli cities with a saturation missile attack. Therefore, Israel has no valid reason to follow any rules of retrained warfare…
Consequently, Israel’s rules of engagement should first authorize preemptive attacks to hit all Arab/Muslim cities – including the small towns where Hezb’Allah has implanted missile launchers among their civilians, to strike every military base and, specifically, to take out key leaders hidden in their bunkers. This should be done with tactical nukes, air fuel bombs, sub-munition bomblets, EMP (Electro-Magnetic-Pulse) explosives that disable every computer-driven vehicle or gadget – in addition to every conventional weapon available. “

And well he should panic. What Israel’s military leaders are now saying publicly is merely a hint, not the likely gruesome assessments for the actual Arab master plan going into effect. Summarized one would read:

The plan was to prevent Israel from getting organized by defeating it immediately in an assault of 80,000 missiles in one night. Israel has no defense against even one missile and would collapse quickly in the face of a torrent of rocket fire.

The attack began at 11 PM on a Friday night. Half the army was at home on Shabbat leaves, and in Tel Aviv thousands of young soldiers were in dance clubs. Tel Aviv was the city targeted with 10,000 missiles, many accurate to within a few meters. At 11:04 the missiles landed on the clubs. Dancing was exchanged for death in an instant. Sirens throughout the country alerted the citizenry of the attack but already it was too late for hundreds of victims. Missiles successfully struck the Reading and Hadera power plants and the coast went black. Attacks on the Paz Junction fuel depot caused a huge fireball that spread the flames through North Tel Aviv as far as Herzlia. Those trapped in rubble or fire had no one to extricate them. Even if rescue teams and ambulances could make it through the rutted streets, the searing heat, the encompassing darkness punctuated by the outlines of buildings engulfed in fire, it would have made no difference. Hospitals like Ichilov and Sheba were on their way to becoming gutted ruins.

In concert with Tel Aviv in deadly chaos, waves of missiles attacked airbases, especially Tel Nof and Nir David. Runways were unusable and crews were too overwhelmed to be effective. A combination of Russian surface to air missiles and deep bunkers would have made missions to neutralize the missile sites daunting in any case. With the Air Force barely functioning, the barrage was enjoying unforeseen freedom to continue with all its aims. Learning the lessons of the ’06 war, the Israeli Navy was subjected to vicious land to sea missile attacks. Damage to the Dimona Nuclear Power Reactor threatens to become uncontrollable.

Jerusalem was barely targeted, but the destruction of the Knesset and the Israel Museum were deemed justifiable targets. The Dead Sea Scrolls are presumed to have charred beyond recognition in this attack of 70 pinpoint missiles.

Hizbullah and Hamas fifth columns in Israel carried out precise attacks on roads, blowing deep pits in them at locations which could not be bypassed. The army could not reach endangered villages. A 5000 man Hizbullah force has broken through to Metulla and is conducting door to door operations. Even the city’s leftists who caused the growing tragedy by appeasing the Islam of permanent war, were not spared.

On the Judean Hills, settlers watched an orange glow on the horizon, interrupted only by missiles landing or gas pipes exploding. Tel Aviv was dying. Those Tel Avivans who could, escaped to the Negev where local tribes and Gazans, who poured into the desert looking for easy pickings, found them. At Hebron, an IDF radio plea to save the Jews there was most telling. “We need reinforcements. We’re almost out of ammunition and we are surrounded by a hundred thousand Arabs.” The reply was curt and distressing. “All roads are impassible. You’re on your own.”

What happened there is illustrative of the mass execution of Israelis throughout the new nation of Palestine. Gangs would barge into homes, keep the parents alive long enough to see their children raped, tortured and murdered. Then the husband would be forced to watch his wife slowly screaming in agony while mutilated and raped. The husband, who until recently had a slogan, “Never Again,” now knows Never is back bigger and faster than ever. If he’s lucky, he’ll be kept alive for only and hour or two of violent Islamic justice.

As for God, He didn’t show up. We assume He’s out of miracles.