Is Ukraine Going Rogue Or Did It Attack Russia’s Early Warning Systems With American Approval?

E. Rowell:  This action, whether initiated by Kiev or Washington DC, puts the world in uncharted territory.  No country has ever done this to another country before.  It is one more sign that those making these decisions are high functioning psychopaths with a desire for personal gain that overrides all other considerations, such as the future of human life on this planet.  It is one thing to want to end Communist subversion of our country.  It is another thing to chance a nuclear war in hopes of destroying Russia.

Russia’s answer to this question will determine its response to any conventional NATO intervention in Ukraine.

By ANDREW KORYBKO’S NEWSLETTER    31 May 2024

Russian-US relations deteriorated further than ever in late May as a result of three developments. First, the US set the ball rolling by more openly allowing Ukraine to use its arms to strike targets inside of Russia, then Poland said that the US will hit all of Russia’s forces in the special operation zone if Moscow uses nukes, and finally, President Putin signaled that he expects NATO to majorly escalate the conflict by sometime this summer. All of this is bad enough, but it’s made even worse by what Ukraine just did.

Russia confirmed that Ukraine hit at least one of its early nuclear warning systems, while Kiev claims to have targeted a second one deeper inside its opponent’s hinterland that hasn’t (yet?) been confirmed. These structures detect incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles of the sort that could be launched by the US in the scenario of a first strike, thus enabling Russia to prepare for an inevitable second strike. They have nothing to do with the Ukrainian Conflict and everything to do with strategic stability.

Both reportedly remain operable, but this nevertheless represents an unprecedented development since never before has any country ever targeted another’s such systems, which could partially blind them to a first strike in the worst-case scenario and thus give the attacking party a huge edge in that event. The further deterioration of Russian-US relations that occurred independently of this development raised tensions to their highest level since the Cuban Missile Crisis so this couldn’t have come at a worse time.

The most important question in the world right now is whether Ukraine is going rogue, perhaps to provoke a crisis like the aforesaid one in the expectation that it could force Russia to withdraw from at least some of the territory that Kiev claims as its own, or if this was done with American approval. The Washington Post’s report about how US officials are concerned about what Ukraine just did lends credence to the first view, but that might just be disinformation for plausible deniability purposes.

At the same time, however, it’s worth remembering how Ukraine defied the US’ public demands not to target Russian oil refineries. The Biden Administration doesn’t want that commodity’s price to spike ahead of the November elections, yet Zelensky still ordered his forces to hit refineries anyhow. That also came amidst the Congressional deadlock over more Ukraine aid that was resolved shortly after those strikes became problematic. It therefore wouldn’t be unprecedented for Ukraine to go rogue yet again.

On top of that, the Financial Times reported that “some Ukrainian officials say (ties with the US) have hit their lowest ebb” due to the above mentioned restrictions on targeting Russian oil refineries and Zelensky’s “paranoia” (as one of their alleged Ukrainian insiders described it) of the US’ intentions. He’s also offended that Biden won’t participate in the upcoming Swiss “peace talks” after snubbing them for a fundraiser, which reportedly prompted him to send a memo ordering officials to criticize the US leader.

Nevertheless, the best approach would arguably be for Russia to assume that America at the very least tacitly approved Ukraine’s strikes on its early warning system(s) since this train of thought aligns with the escalatory trend of the past week. After all, if NATO as a whole or at least a “coalition of the willing” from that bloc commence a conventional intervention in Ukraine, then it could prompt Russia to use tactical nukes in self-defense to stop this invasion force if it crosses the Dnieper and threatens its new regions.

In that event, the US might either conventionally strike all of Russia’s forces in the special operation zone like Poland claimed that it would do, or just cut to the chase by launching a first nuclear strike that could be facilitated by its Ukrainian proxy carrying out more attacks against its early warning systems. There’s also the chance that more such attacks could simply precede a first nuclear strike by the US before any conventional NATO intervention if decision makers conclude that an exchange would then be inevitable.

It therefore can’t be ruled out that Ukraine was probing the security of Russia’s early warning systems at the behest of its American patron in preparation of that worst-case scenario, hence the wisdom of Dmitry Suslov’s advice for his country to carry out a “demonstrative” nuclear test. This influential expert from the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy had his policy proposal translated and republished at RT here, which brought it to global attention with the intent of signaling to the US.

Readers might also remember that RT published the proposal by Suslov’s colleague Sergey Karaganov last June where he explained why Russia should nuke Europe in order to deter the US in Ukraine. This latest proposal is much more practical and carries with it no risk of sparking World War III, plus it could represent a fitting finale to Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons exercises that were just carried out. Those were ordered to deter the US, but given its continued escalations, a stronger signal might be needed.

Russia’s answer to the question of whether Ukraine went rogue when attacking its early warning system(s) or if this was done at America’s behest will determine its response to any conventional NATO intervention in Ukraine. The first could see Russia wait until a large-scale force crosses the Dnieper to use tactical nukes, while the second might push it to launch a nuclear first strike against the US before that intervention begins so as to preempt the nuclear first strike that Russia might believe the US is planning.

 

May 31, 2024 | 24 Comments »

Leave a Reply

24 Comments / 24 Comments

  1. @Adam

    I can’t prove this right now. But I have seen many such over-4oo-word posts in Israpundit in 2023 and 2024.

    The 400 word limit has been set in place since before I began posting on this forum. The limit was set by Ted and is enforced by an automated system of software coding.

    I explained how you can avoid the system’s automated settings, and that is by working within the guidelines, which again were set by Ted long ago.

    Notably, while you may not recall it, this matter has been noted previously in years past. Here are two examples of Ted explaining this limit, HERE and HERE – the later of these two was addressed to you back in 2019.

    The following “abstract” waws published as a comment on another article that was published in this week’s Israpundit. Does it meet the 400-word limit?

    If by this, you are referencing the article posted here:
    https://www.israpundit.org/revealed-the-sars-cov-2-sequencing-sham/

    This is not a comment, but a posted article. Also, the four comments which follow that article are all well within the guidelines which I described previously.

  2. @Adam

    I realize that Mr. Korybko lives in a country that is not for the present at war with the United States.

    Thank you for making this point so I don’t have to.

    But it is also a country that has threatened the U.S. with war but with a nuclear attack that could kill millions of Americans.

    Russia has threatened that it will respond with a nuclear attack as needed to preserve their national sovereignty, something which any rational country should be expected to raise while their nation is at war.

    I therefore believe it is reasonable to question Korybko’s loyalty to the United States, as well well as the legality of his pro-Russian propaganda directed to American audiences.

    You can question his loyalty as best you can, but such questions still do not address the fundamental accuracy or fallacy carried within the arguments he has raised.

    At the very least, he is an unregistetred foreign agant. Which is a crime.

    This seems very far afield from the matter at hand. If you think Koryboko is a foreign agent or not is still irrelevant to the issues he raised in the articles he writes.

    You seem somewhat reluctant to address Korybko’s arguments, which of course is your right to do, but I felt it was not like you to side step the issue while relying on what are rather tangential arguments to disqualify Koryko personally, rather than explaining to us why you think his arguments are actually invalid. And no, I would argue that the location of his residence is not powerful enough of a basis to ignore his words, just as an argument raised by someone living in the US should not be deemed to accurate simply because they are domestically situated. Ideas, not personalities, are what I am addressing, even as you seem to prefer to do otherwise. While we might argue about Korybko’s loyalty or foreign agent status instead, I don’t personally feel qualified or even interested in doing either, which is why I keep trying to bring the conversation back to the article which he wrote.

  3. This 400 word thing. Oh come off it Peloni. This supposed word limit has never been enforced when someone posts something that agrees with the views of the senior leadership of Israpundit. I can’t prove this right now. But I have seen many such over-4oo-word posts in Israpundit in 2023 and 2024.

  4. I realize that Mr. Korybko lives in a country that is not for the present at war with the United States. But it is also a country that has threatened the U.S. with war but with a nuclear attack that could kill millions of Americans. I therefore believe it is reasonable to question Korybko’s loyalty to the United States, as well well as the legality of his pro-Russian propaganda directed to American audiences. At the very least, he is an unregistetred foreign agant. Which is a crime.

  5. @peloni. In the not too distant past it has had great significance to the USG and American public opinion when American citizens chose to live abroad in countries that many Americans perceived as enemy countries. That was particularly true when the broadcast or disseminated informational materials and.or made radio broadcasts advocating support for the actions and policies of countries that were at war with the U.S., and urged Ameericans to make peace with those countries on their terms. During World War Two, about a dozen American citizens who made broadcasts from Radio Berlin , Radio Rome or Torkyo radio, defending the actions of these countries and urging Americans to make peace with them on their terms, were indicted for treason. After the war, charges against some of them were dismissed for “lack of evidence.” But some of these “traiters” served long prison terms, and two died in prison. Thus when an American citizen chooses to live in a country that most Americans view as a hostile country, and from there disseminates propaganda to Americans advocating the policy goals of their adopted country, even when these run counter to American interests and policy goals, the matter should not be taken lightly. Nor should the location from which this propaganda is ent be regarded as unimportant.

  6. I would appreciate, if everyone here would just calm down. After all, we have a REAL crisis before us: it appears likely that the Deep State is about to plunge the US into full authoritarian mode. What difference does it make, what happens in Ukraine?

    The US and other NATO countries have been supplying Ukraine with weapons for several years now: This is no secret. Once those weapons have been given to Ukraine, they become UKRAINIAN weapons; and what Ukraine does with them is Ukraine’s business.

    This talk about nuclear war (in the context of Ukraine) is borderline madness.

  7. @Adam
    Your suggestion that your post was blocked due to its content is very much in error. There is a 400 word limit on th posts which has no sense of any content posted. The article you posted far exceeds the limit, which is why it was held back. If you were to share a shorter summary and a link to the full article you are sharing, your post will not be sent to moderation.

  8. Ted, I realize that you disagree stronly with the views of the “anti-propaganda” site that I exerpted in my most recent post. However, I wish you will publish in spite of how much you disagree with it. There are some serious and generally well-informed internet sources who believe that Andrew Korybko is not a reliable source of information about the U.S., Ukraine, or the West generally. I think it is fair that Israpundit know that there these sceptical commentatators on the internet

  9. One world, one author, one chain of command: meet another Russian disinformation outlet

    BY
    EU EAST STRATCOM TASK FORCE
    03/12/2019
    3 MINUTE READ
    One World Global Think Tank
    One world, one author, one chain of command: meet another Russian disinformation outlet

    Edited by: Yuri Zoria
    The “One World Global Think Tank” is a new addition to the pantheon of Moscow-based disinformation outlets, publishing material in English. EU vs Disinformation has presented The Strategic Culture Foundation, New Eastern Outlook, and South Front. News Front has also featured on EU vs Disinfo’s website.
    One World is just like all the above-mentioned registered and managed from Russia. A whois search shows that the site is registered with the RU-CENTER registrar. The content of the site is loyally following the Kremlin line on issues like MH17, Syria or Greta Thunberg. A unique feature of the site is its strong coverage of the Indian subcontinent. We can also note an affiliation with Pakistani resources. The site is very small: in fact, too small for the web analysis tool Similar Web to produce traffic data. But despite its lack of weight, it certainly has influence.

    Most of the content of the site is provided by an Andrew Korybko. He presents himself as a “Moscow-based political analyst” on his Twitter account. Andrew Korybko is also a frequent contributor to other English-language, Russia-based outlets: Katehon.com, Sputnik, Geopolitica.ru and Oriental Review. As we can see from the presentation on Sputnik, Mr. Korybko is also affiliated with the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecast of the Moscow Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. Mr. Korybko is as Andrei Korybko, in Russian ?????? ???????, member of the Institute’s expert council. This ties Mr. Korybko to Russian state structures.

    The US-based writer Andrei Raevsky, known under his nom-de-guerre The Saker, has published an interview with Mr. Korybko where he explains his background. Born in the US in a family with Slovenian-Polish roots. After studies in Poland, he enrolled with the prestigious Moscow Institute of International Relations:

    I’m attracted to Russia not only because of my familial connection with the country, but actually mostly because it’s the only state that has the capability of firmly standing up to the US and supporting the ideas that I believe in, particularly multipolarity. As a Slav, I sensed in Russia the spirits of resistance, independence, and wisdom, and I knew that one day it would rise from its knees to push back against the US’ unipolar chaos.

    We have established that Mr. Korybko is connected to Russian state structures – the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia in Moscow. We can note that he is a frequent contributor to Kremlin disinformation outlets: Sputnik, RT, Geopolitica.ru, etc.

    But we can also, searching on Mr. Korybko’s name, track the reach of Kremlin disinformation, following his appearances outside Russia. Several sites outside Russia list Mr. Korybko as an author, for instance:

    Command Eleven, Pakistan
    Global Research, Canada
    The Nation, Pakistan
    Regional Rapport, Pakistan
    Reseau International, United States
    Returning to the One World site, we can see that Korybko is describing events in Bolivia as the result of “hybrid war,” waged by the US against Latin American states. An article of the 12 November 2019 on One World is reproduced at Canadian Global Research the same day, US-registered, French language Reseau International on the 13th. Korybko’s posts on Bolivia appear on blogs and news aggregators, spreading virally.

    The One World site has a section on “partner blogs”, allowing further mapping of the reach of the site:

  10. @Adam
    There is nothing specific about geography which changes the arguments put forth by Korybko or any other American based over seas, or even for any non-American based in the US. Indeed, it is the market place of ideas rather than a person’s home address which should gain our critique, and sway us one way or another. Indeed, the reason that the Cold War was won was because Western ideas, combined with Soviet economic failings, led the Russian people and the Soviet hierarchy (which should be recalled to include the Russians but also the Ukrainians and others), to cast off their Soviet teachings.

    So beyond noting Korybko’s change of address, do you have any other comment to share which might actually address the topics he raised? Indubitably, if he is rendered so completely illegitimate as a source due to his choice of residency such that we should not post his writings, it would seem that it would be a simple task for someone such as yourself to completely unravel the arguments which he raised. I mean you no ridicule in this statement as you are well known to me to be capable of significant research and empowered with a keen intellect.

    The very first Russian source I ever read, which was about 35 years ago, was actually quite earth shaking in its clarity and brilliance. I am quite pleased that I was not so limited in my scope as to recede from considering the challenging views put forward in that paper due to its geographical sourcing. While I am not comparing Korybko to this other author, which had nothing to do with politics, I would suggest that many things might be gained if we but accept the challenge in accepting that not all good or great viewpoints originate in Washington DC or even in America or even in the West. In fact, only by considering and weighing other views beyond the input of their geographical origin might we actually assess that our ideas might be better ideas or even to hold a more accurate view of the world.

  11. @Adam your point about the American Andrew Korybko who has taken the pro Russian position literally is spot on except you actually where wrong when you said Israpundit had hit a new low. This is actually just the continuation of what sadly has been going on for years now on Israpundit.

    Only saving grace on Israpundit it still backs Israel versus Hamas, Hezis and Iran.
    Somehow Israpundit management is not fully grasping that Russia is the ally who arms our biggest enemies plus provides them intelligence.

  12. Andrew Korybko is an American political analyst based in Moscow. The Valdai Club recognizes him as: “specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s Belt & Road Initiative, and Hybrid Warfare”.[1] His other areas of focus include tactics of regime change, color revolutions and unconventional warfare used across the world.[2][3]

    He is a regular contributor to several online journals,[4][5] and a member of the expert council for the Institute of Strategic Studies and Predictions at the People’s Friendship University of Russia, where he specializes in Russian affairs and geopolitics, specifically the US strategy in Eurasia.[6][7]

    If he is an American, why is he “based in Moscow? And why is he an “expert council at the People’s Friendship University of Russia?” Why can’t he argue for a pro-Russian policy by the USG on a website based in the Unitesd States, as dozens of other bloggers do? This guy certainly appears to be a Kremlin stooge. Again in my opinion, by publishing an article by a “Moscow based” jounalist, Israpundit’s reporting on the Russo-Ukraine war has hit a new low.

  13. If Ukraine badly damages Russia further and does curtail its military advance that will help eastern European places Russia is likely to further attack to try and conquer under their Russian Imperialistic Agenda.

    So Ukraine is also fighting for Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia…………… and anywhere else Putin and the Russian Nationalists have their greedy bloody eyes on.

  14. Hi, Bear. You spoke with utmost clarity — no need for “spelling it out”:

    Ukraine is fighting for its survival from the Russian aggressors who are trying to destroy Ukraine and have been for years now. The only way Ukraine will salvage its country in the long run is hit the Russians so hard they will actual want to stop fighting because Ukraine has and is inflicting serious pain on them.

    What I said is essentially what you said, but with fewwer words. Anyone but a Homer Simpson, or perhaps one or two others, could see that. Thank you for your support.

    https://static.simpsonswiki.com/images/thumb/c/c3/D%27oh.jpg/200px-D%27oh.jpg

  15. Vivarto

    Well said. That point has been made to them thousands of times.

    We cannot get through. They should have been booted off.

    The enemy of humanity is lodged inside of Israpundit and thanks to especially Peloni we can do not a thing about it.

  16. I should have spelled out what Michael said, thinking you could read

    He said

    Quote

    “This is about the dumbest question I’ve seen in quite a while. What the author is really asking, is,

    ARE THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA AT WAR?

    Answer: YES.”

    This is a reply not just to Eve who introduced the Korybo analysis but also to Korybo analysis

    I would say that that is the majority on Israpundit.

    They do not care if the earth is hit by thermonuclear war.

    Anything, they are saying, is worth it such is their hatred of Russia.

    They are truly Psychos

  17. @Bear Klein

    @Bear Klein

    Ukraine was held back in this war against Russia by the US and NATO partners not providing them with offensive weapons including fighter jets.

    It is not a war between Ukraine and Russia. If it was, it would have ended 2 years ago with Ukraine’s defeat.
    This is the war of America and it’s European vassals against Russia. Ukraine only supplies cannon fodder.
    Now that Ukraine is running out of the cannot fodder, the situation is getting dangerous.

  18. Klein

    From what Michael said he deserved it and more…as you and Laura and Edgar and Adam do, actually a majority here

    In fact the problem with Israpundit is that since Peloni arrived on this site, without the slightest introduction, he has sought total control. From that moment there was the makings not of full democracy but of something else.

    The deal with dangerous Russian haters was on.

    Strange as it may seem to some Peloni is to me definitely in with the many Russian haters on the site which is the notable form of racism in the ranks of traditional Jews. I see it also in Irish Jews in their effective leader Alan Shatter who has been a member of the Irish Cabinet. It was also a feature of Caroline Glick when she embedded herself with the American Army in war to overthrow Saddam Hussein. And she is the most popular voice in Zionism today. It is ideology against socialism and becomes racist against Russia.

    As regards Klein’s criticism of Peloni it is very false. He takes him up on trivia and excludes the main…they form the clique in Israpundit and are in alliance with Pelonis on the main… prepared to make nuclear war on Russia (in their minds on Communism)

    As it stands Israpundit has become all of that.

    I exclude Eve in that assessment because she made the above correct analysis.

  19. @Peloni you were censoring Laura’s words as an attack. Take a look at Felix attacking Michael verbally. Do you think that is appropriate?

  20. In war just playing defense does not win the war. If fact it is a lousy defense.

    The best defense is a strong offense. So one should strive to hurt the enemies logistics, weapons storage, fuel deports and their rear military reserves plus their defenses.

    Ukraine was held back in this war against Russia by the USA & NATO partners not giving them offensive weapons including fighter jets.

    Ukraine is fighting for its survival from the Russian aggressors who are trying to destroy Ukraine and have been for years now. The only way Ukraine will salvage its country in the long run is hit the Russians so hard they will actual want to stop fighting because Ukraine has and is inflicting serious pain on them.

  21. Michael’s remark there is beneath contempt. He doesn’t seem to care. Even the smallest chance of nuclear war worries any normal human .
    He is not human. The disease of extreme religion with no imagination with feeling.

    The preview was extremely well weighted.