Is Israel-Iran War Inevitable

By  Mordechai Ben-Menachem    7  December 2021

The Biden Mal-Administration is occupied to foment war in the Horn of Africa.  They also press to foment war between Morocco and Algeria.  And most important to them, the Maladroit team has been assiduously working to cause war between Israel and Iran. 

What is going on, really?

The Biden Team is as inefficient at fomenting conflict as they have been in managing the economy and Covid-19.

Bizarre days: the US and the EU sound concern at human rights abuses yet allow Iran, the world’s leading terrorist state unspeakable atrocities, while the Ayatollah-Government openly laughs at the erstwhile US ‘super-power’.  The blinkin’ fool Blinken makes faces at Teheran’s stalling, with illegal enriched uranium production and providing the regime with multi-dimensions sanctions’ relief.

Hyperbole mixed with hypocrisy or simple basic management ignorance?

Israel is, or was until Biden, a central ally of America; yet the Vienna ‘Team’ claims “ambiguity” to Israel’s concerns, which are the concerns of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordon, Egypt, Sudan etcetera.

Does anyone on Planet Earth still trust the US Government?

American Agenda

What drives “America”? Eisenhower, in his farewell address, immortalized the idea of the “Military-Industrial Complex.”

Is this concept still valid?

The Trump presidency saw a small group of technological companies, of ‘mythological’ size, garner unprecedented power over US citizenry public awareness.

The Covid crisis saw large pharmaceutical companies garner obscene profits on human suffering and death, while promoting and controlling vaccine access.  It is well-understood that the “omicron variant” (and speciously future variants) result from selective distribution – Africa, as usual, received the worst distribution statistics.  Disease eradication only occurs when eradicated equally over the entire globe, or not at all.  Viruses and bacteria evolve and mutate away from preventative drugs.  If these are given in one geography and not in another (or significantly less) evolution occurs rather than eradication.  Decisions were based solely upon maximum monetary gain, not logic.

The issue for us here is not this ‘vaccination’ or that ‘social media platform’ but the issue of controls, controlees and controllers.

Does the Democratic Party control media and social-media companies, the military firms and the pharmaceuticals?  Or, alternatively, do these organisations control – in whole or in part – the Democratic Party?

Does this article promote a theory that there exists some “over-riding conspiracy” of all these companies together, perhaps meeting regularly to decide on plans of action?  Certainly NOT!  However that also does not preclude goals being sufficiently similar to ‘cooperate’ for ‘the greater good’ as they perceive it.

As things stand, a great deal of historical evidence and precedent indicates that the twenty first century Democratic Party is at least highly dependent upon large firms’ long-term goodwill and their senior management.

Is this “America’s Agenda?”
It is quite clear that this is and was the Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden agenda.  Obama also made an effort to enable and empower the Muslim Brotherhood, the progenitor of all Islamic Terrorist organisations – as anyone growing up in Islamic Indonesia certainly knows well.  Obama’s efforts to accommodate the Iranian regime are also highly suspect.

It was clearly not the agenda of Reagan, Bush & Bush nor Trump.  The division appears to be along party lines.

Iranian Initiative

Iran is planning to strike Israel from every possible direction: Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, as well as internally via Arabs in Judea and Samaria and possibly the Negev.  Much here depends upon future Hashemite regime survival prospects in Jordon, which appears to be increasingly wobbly.

Iran built Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Houthi’s and more.  Iran fights wars using others – the Ayatollahs are great at egging on others to fight wars they are too cowardly to take on themselves.  Mad dogs must be taken down before they do too much damage.  The mad dog Tim in chapter ten of To Kill a Mockingbird symbolises racism just as the mad-dog-regime in Teheran is racist – this is a disease.  A disease that Europe has always been very comfortable with, so they make a point of supporting the Ayatollah regime.

The imitation talks in Vienna do not tell the right story, if indeed they tell any story at all.  The issue at stake is not whether Iran will acquire nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction – many of which Europe has already freely supplied them.  (Germany, while talking about their historical debt to Israel, sold – and continues to sell – Iran chemical weapons and chemical precursors (as shown in my 2011 book “History is Now!”.)

Is Europe’s motivation “only” about more sales to Iran?  They also sold the same services and chattels to Nasser’s Egypt, Qaddafi’s Libya and Saddam’s Iraq – but not to countries like Morocco.  What are the differences between the first group and these ‘others” – they had no real, active quarrel with Israel.  Iran, per se, is not the object.  Europeans have never liked Iran or the Persians – from 1917 through 1919 Britain murdered by induced famine some eight million Persians.

Is Iran a kind of “European proxy” in Europe’s age-old War against Judaism and the Jewish People and withal, the “Coming Destruction of Israel” (a book published in 1970)?  Or alternatively, ought it to be contended that Europe still dreams of world domination, for its own agenda – “you will own nothing and you will be happy!”  Or thirdly, can one describe this as Euro-dreams of “One World Government”?

Obviously, without access to certain “meetings” an agenda cannot be definitively quoted, though certain issues can be inferred.  At ‘least’ part of the European agenda is blatantly anti-Israel.  France, Britain and Germany have stated many times “commitment to Israel’s security” while selling the most horrible poison gases to anyone willing and eager to use them against Israel and voting for every UN anti-Israel act. And we must not forget financing many anti-Israel NGO’s and illegal Arab construction in Area C.

Coincidence?  Unlikely!

Possibility is not inevitability, but it helps

For the past year+, the IDF has prepared plans and trained for implementation.  The Israel Air Force and intelligence services have ramped up activities vis-à-vis Iran.  The Navy and Special Forces operational teams are also active; billions have been invested.

Publically, the focus has been on the airstrike; public attention has been directed at the Air Force and its F-35 fighters.  It is not clear how much is “for public consumption” and Public Relations and how much is actually parts of the plans.

Israel has many strike options.  Thinking ‘only’ in terms of airplanes is an error; an underestimation of capabilities.  Israel can just as easily strike using sea launched cruise missiles, either from on or undersea.  Israel also possesses Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles.  It is not known if Israel possesses capability to also strike from satellite-based weaponry.  Striking at Bushehr reactor is simplest from the sea.

In the past, both Operation Opera (Iraqi reactor) and Operation Outside-the-Box (Syrian reactor) were conducted from geographic Israel.  Strikes do not need to geographically originate from Israel.  We know, from public media sources, that the Israel Air Force examined originating a strike from such as Azerbaijan.  With Iran now fomenting war with Azerbaijan, this option is more real.

Israel has additional allies, some more openly and some less potentially including India.  A strike from its East would be ‘interesting’.  The possibility should not be dismissed lightly.

A single sortie of Airplanes is far from sufficient to significantly downgrade Iranian Nuclear capabilities.

Iran has geographically-dispersed nuclear facilities, many deep underground; Fordo has Iran’s latest uranium enrichment centrifuge cascades.

The US has large “bunker-buster” bombs, such as the GBU-57 (13,700 kilograms); these have not been supplied to Israel because (the excuse) Israel does not possess bombers capable of delivering it – albeit a Boeing could be relatively easily re-purposed.

Iran has invested heavily in air defence systems – home-grown and Russian.  Israel has repeatedly shown it knows how to obviate or defeat such systems.

Aftermath

If  Israel strikes Iran there is a consensus expectation Hezbollah retaliation – again, Iran has no problem fighting to the last Lebanese.  Hezbollah has missiles that can strike Europe as would be highly likely.  Hezbollah has more missiles than all EU armies, combined.

In 2018 Iran sent a drone, which Israel shot down, to deliver explosives to terror cells in Samaria.  A war with Iran in which Iran succeeded in forcing operational status of Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and groups within Israel to operate in coordination would be a difficult task for the IDF; particularly if these included precision guided munitions (PGM).

Arab states are also very concerned with PGM – for instance, Houthi’s have used such against targets in Saudi Arabia, both infrastructure targets and population.

The Biden-Team ‘negotiators’ refuse to discuss any of this, in a meaningful manner, because they are desperate for a “deal at any price.” Laughably, they still insist that Iran “could still return to negotiations and ‘evolve’ into a responsible international ME stakeholder.  Iran is gleefully taking advantage of this stance by making maximalist demands at every point, including reneging (they are very good at that) at every item agreed upon previously.

Israel has stated clearly and in absolutely no uncertain terms that it is not a partner to these false negotiation and will not be bound by them.  Americans and Europeans seem to presume that Israel will not have a choice but to accept whatever bones they cast in Israel’s direction.  There is very little chance that Israel will accept any ‘bones’ and any kind.

Israel is the only country in the world bound by “Never Again” – the genocides in Rwanda and Xinjian prove Europe’s lack of sincerity, and lack of trust-worthiness.

As part of the concept of “Aftermath” one must be acutely aware of the Iranian People – a People that does not exist and never has been.  About fifty percent of Iranians are Persian.  The remainder are a hodgepodge of various peoples and tribes, all of which are viciously controlled by Teheran – the issue of human rights has been mentioned above.

Conclusion

Sanctions against Iran are formally in place; some of them (far from all) are also enforced.  The Biden Mal-Administration has ceased enforcement of many of them and has even provided active sanctions’ relief to the tune of several billions of dollars.  Teheran views this as more signs of weakness and acts accordingly.  Iran is even now wringing increased concessions from the US government.

One reason for this utter failure in every negotiation with Iran is the monumental arrogance of the United States, the Democratic Party and the vast majority of the European Union.

It must be stated clearly, these Vienna Negotiations are a bad solution to the wrong problem.  The ‘West’ still insists that antisemitism is simply part of “human nature” and talking about it will “solve” it.  This is, of course, utter nonsense.

Being wholly secular today, they are incapable of comprehending that for most of the world Religious zealotry is very real.  They still try to “de-radicalize” what they choose to call “Islamic Extremists” – both concepts are nonsense.  Life is not a cheap Hollywood movie.

Those Muslims who make themselves into human missiles sincerely believe in what they are doing; they sincerely believe those that send them to maximise human life-taking.

Iran and its government truly believe that by fomenting a major war, in which perhaps 10 million Iranian citizens will surely die. Is truly the way, the best method, to bring the Mahdi – their version of the Messiah.

As Melanie Phillips recently said, “America and the west ignore the reality about Iran or the Palestinians or the Muslim Brotherhood because they take refuge in the fantasy that the world is shaped in their own image.”

It may be Israel’s task to wake these people up before it is too late for them to awaken.  If that truly turns out to be the case, it will be most unfortunate.  The ‘West’ as it was known, will not recover and will cease to exist in any recognisable manner.  Russia and China are both aware of this and are waiting.  Empires generally destroy themselves from internal weaknesses.  America will be no different.

The author is former lecturer at Ben Gurion University, with over 80 published books and more than 400 published papers, in science, history, and world events…