By Monica Showalter | December 6, 2024
The strongman is surrounded by multiple rebel factions, all of which have blocked his route out of the city off.
He’s losing city after city in rapid succession, domino-style:
And they’re getting stronger:
According to Syria-watcher Saul Sadka, who seems to be from Israel:
If the rebels capture the Homs area, it is all over for Assad. His Alawite coastal heartland and all the ports (circled in pink) will be cut off from the capital Damascus. Iran would lose access to all but two border crossings into Lebanon (mountain passes that Israel can, and routinely does, control via airstrikes. The Kurds are also pushing into Deir Az Zor (circled in yellow), and if they succeed, Iran will lose its primary supply route to Hezbollah (they will be forced to run the gauntlet across the Syrian desert, within easy reach of US bases).
The best case for Assad is that his poorly paid troops can hold Homs, allowing him to keep a rump state (the blue circled area). If he can’t, expect huge bloodletting as the hated Alawites reap the whirlwind of their 50 years of oppression of all the other groups.
Assad’s head from a statue is being dragged through one city’s streets:
Some reports have it that Assad and his family have fled.
China and Russia have ordered their diplomats and nationals out:
Iraq has asked its nationals to prove they are Iraqi by registering at their Damascus embassy, or they aren’t getting into Iraq:
Iran’s mullahs seem helpless:
The Kurds are on the march, taking city after city:
Assad’s side is going the Baghdad Bob route, saying all’s fine:
Longtime foreign correspondents say it’s starting to feel like Kabul, circa 2021 again.
None of these players are good guys — they’re either terrorists, Iran proxies, Russian stooges, Turkish janissaries, or something else anti-American.
Some are predicting a bloodbath:
It’s too soon to tell what is and will be happening. But three things are likely:
One: Whoever got this going knew that President Trump was coming to office and therefore the time to act was now, while weak-horse Joe Biden was still in the saddle and Biden’s men seem asleep at the wheel. That’s a terrible ending note to Joe Biden’s miserable presidency.
Two: Iran’s mullahs, and maybe even Vladimir Putin know they may be next, and will probably respond accordingly.
Three: the refugees (real ones) will flow westward — or to any place they can find.
Image: Screen shot from X video.
@Reader
No, it is not.
Israel will face a threat from the Sunni Axis in Syria which will replace the more sophisticated and far more capable Iranian threat in Syria.
What is more is that Iran’s loss of Syria will sever its land bridge to Lebanon, even while Israel alone commands full control of the arial approach to Lebanon. Additionally, the loss of the coordinated threat across the Northern aspect of the Iranian crescent with the loss of Syria will significantly diminished the nature of the threat emanating from Israel’s North.
Furthermore, Iran has the financial depth and technical skills about which Turkey can only pretend to dream.
Hence, the diminished threat replacing that of Iran in Syria will itself be a force multiplying victory for Israel, in and of itself, even if the Jihadi Conquerors in Syria make the mistake of not learning the lesson which cost Iran its control over Syria.
Is an Islamic terrorist state in Syria better for Israel than Assad?
I think it will open another front for Israel to fight on.
Israel also had an agreement with the Russians (who will now have to leave) in Syria.
Very likely that Assad is getting of Damascus very soon and no part of Syria will be run by his Alwaites and his Iranian and Russian allies will also have to flee Syria.
Here’s a recent situation map, showing Kurdish movements. I don’t know the complete back story, but it looks as though the Kurds are moving toward US (Biden) – cintrolled territory (for escape?) , in case the Turks bear down on them.
It’s difficult to figure out what this article is offering. Half the lines are missing and the remaing lines don’t add up.
@Adam
Showalter makes this exact point in her concluding statements.
This being stated, it appears that this is no longer accurate.
OSINTdefender
We should not count our chickens before they hatch. Iran can defeat the insurgency if it decides to by sending in a large force of Revolutionary Guards. That would be a risky move for the mullah’s regime. But when someone knows he is in deep s__t no matter what he does, he will do anything that might improve his situation, no matter how risky.