Iraq’s Importance To The Survival Of Iran’s Regime And Economy Following U.S. Sanctions

By: A. Savyon, MEMRI

Introduction

As the impact of the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s economy increases, after even countries that oppose U.S. policy are complying with them, Iraq’s importance to the survival of Iran’s regime and economy also increases.

Underlining Iraq’s importance to Iran, Sadollah Zarei, who is on the editorial board of the regime mouthpiece Kayhan, wrote in a January 23, 2019 article: “America imagines that it will weaken the government of Iraq, and particularly the situation of [Iraqi Prime Minister] Adil Abdul-Mahdi, with military pressure in northern and southern Iraq, to the point where it [Iraq] will be unable to carry the burden of the warm and extensive Baghdad-Tehran relations. On the other hand, [the U.S.] will [also] create insecurity for the Iranian regime in two areas of Iranian investment. America knows that Iran has made important investments in the last 15 years in [Iraq’s] provinces of Sulaymaniyah, Erbil, Basra, Nasiriyah, and others, and that it [Iran] has become an important partner of Iraq, particularly in the energy sector.

“From the Americans’ point of view, if Iran reaches energy agreements with even one or two of its neighbors, the American sanctions will not be able to block Iran’s energy [export] route. Therefore, severing Iraq’s relations with Iran is a strategic need for Washington.”[1]

It appears that the Iranian regime is pursuing this path because Iranian hegemony over Iraq will allow Iran to export oil via Iraq, and to obtain goods in exchange, with no need for banks or dollars – thus circumventing the U.S. sanctions. In this way, Iran’s regime can continue to exist, as can its expansion in the region. This is the context in which Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s recent special visit to Iraq must be understood.

Bringing Iraq into the Iran-led Shi’ite resistance axis is an important political and economic aim for the Iranian regime, as noted by Sayed Hadi Afaqhi, an Iranian expert on the region who writes commentary and analysis of events for websites identified with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). In a January 18, 2019 interview with the Mehr news agency, Afaqhi analyzed Zarif’s Iraq visit, saying: “Iraq is considered a very important country for Iran in many areas, and it can strengthen the resistance front in the region. This is why we are sensitive towards Iraq, and therefore we must not allow control of this country to be in the hands of America, the Zionist regime, and some of the reactionary Arab [states] of the region [hinting at Saudi Arabia]. Unfortunately, our economic activity in Iraq is weak, but Iran’s advisory activity, [as part of which] we hastened to help the Iraqi military forces so that they could fight the terrorists at the time when there was a terrorist-group presence on Iraqi soil, was positive. In order to establish strategic trade agreements with Iraq, we must first set out a strategic plan and document. Iran should be [the country that is] at least second, after Russia, in rebuilding Syria, especially in light of Iraq’s current situation, as it advances in its own rehabilitation towards stability and security. But for us, Iraq is [even] more important than Syria, and this is because of the long Iran-Iraq border.”[2]

Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif To Islamic Resistance Groups In Iraq: The American Era Is Over; “We Are Enamored Of Iraq’s Rehabilitation; As We Fought Alongside Al-Hashd Al-Sha’bi And The Iraqi Armed Forces, So Are We Willing To Participate In Rebuilding Iraq”

On January 13, 2019, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in Iraq at the head of a large political and economic delegation for a five-day visit, a few days after a visit there by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. During his visit, Zarif met with Iraqi officials from the political, economic, and religious sectors, including Shi’ites, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkmens, and others. The meetings took place in the capital Baghdad, in the Kurdish cities of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq, and in the Shi’ite cities of Najaf and Karbala in the south. The aim of the visit, according to the Iranian news agencies Mehr and Tasnim, was, inter alia, to discuss Iranian investments in Iraq, Iran’s participation in rebuilding Iraq, and strengthening Iran-Iraq economic cooperation, in light of Iran’s increasing economic difficulties due in particular to the U.S. sanctions against it.[3]

On January 16, in a speech to representatives of Islamic resistance groups in Karbala, Zarif underlined the Iran-Iraq partnership as well as the anti-U.S. and anti-West Iranian revolutionary Islamic ideology that he said Iraq too should take upon itself in order for it to rebuild itself economically and politically.

 In statements in Karbala to representatives of resistance groups, Zarif, who is perceived by the West as a moderate figure in the Iranian regime along with President Hassan Rohani, underlined how very important Iran considers exporting the Islamic revolution to Iraq, harnessing Iraq’s economy for the needs of Iran’s struggling economy, and expanding Iran’s political influence in the region. He acknowledged that Iranian forces had fought alongside the pro-Iran Iraqi militias against the Islamic State (ISIS) despite Iranian regime officials’ vehement denials that Iranian fighters were involved in fighting in other countries and their claims that only Iranian advisors were in those countries. Another important element of his statements was the common struggle against those he perceives as the enemies of Islam – the U.S. and the West.

The following are Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif’s statements in Karbala to representatives of resistance groups:

“What took place in Iraq in the last three or four years is another sign that if we rely on God, and on our capability, there is a possibility that, under the direction of a first-degree cleric [a reference to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei], we can overcome every problem. The secret of America’s pressure on Iran and Iraq in this era is that we and you are acting on this fact, and America greatly fears this and our internalization of it.

“Everyone has perhaps heard of the well-known story of the naked emperor. This emperor had no clothes on, and everyone told [him], despite reality, that he was dressed. The emperor accepted this, contrary to reality, until one day a little boy told him that he was naked.  This truth shook the pillars of heaven… America wants us to believe that the emperor is clothed even though he is in fact naked, and when someone utters the truth, [America] pressures him so that he ends up agreeing that the emperor is indeed not naked.

“The truth is that the era in which America sat in God’s place is over. But few dare to talk about this or to act on it. As long as no one dares to speak out against this, America can control the world without using any force at all, because this method is the cheapest for it. But if someone in this era wants to challenge this illusion, he will be pressured until he accepts America’s might and false control.

“American President [Trump] said that [the U.S.] has spent $7 trillion in Iraq with no achievements. In the end, he was forced to arrive at and leave the American air force base in the dead of night. His friends had to turn around when they were only half way to Iraq. All this is evidence of the real [state] of America.

Zarif. Source: Tasnim, Iran, January 16, 2018.

“Our transgression, and yours – the Iraqi nation’s – is that we are saying that the emperor is naked. We must be prepared to come under pressure for uttering this truth. Whatever the pressure may be, it will not change the truth.

“The Americans claim that they defeated ISIS. But we know, and you know, that they never fought to vanquish anyone, and that if America ever did anything in that war, it either helped ISIS or transferred the ISIS men, after they were defeated in Iraq and Syria, to Afghanistan… Therefore, we and you are under pressure to say the opposite of the truth – that the emperor is not naked, or that we think he is clothed – [but] if we [actually] believe this, we will also have to obey America. My dears, the truth is that America’s time is over. This does not mean that America will fall, but that it will no longer be able to lead the world.

“My dears! We must see the reality as it is so that we can act on it. Perhaps a century ago all the important events in the world took place in the West; perhaps 20 years ago, the West led or directed everything that happened. But today everything that happens certainly does not happen in the West, and is not directed by it. The obvious example of this is that the American and Russian foreign ministers both announced, in September 2016, a ceasefire in Syria, but two weeks later, the fighting in Syria began again. That is, not everything that America and Russia decide actually takes place. Three months later, Iran, Russia, and Turkey decided that there would be a ceasefire in Syria, and for two years there has been a ceasefire in Syria.[4]America is pressuring the UN to declare that the Astana process has failed, because this process reveals that the emperor is naked.

“We, before anyone else, must accept and internalize the truth that America is no longer a superpower that can control [others]. As of today, there is only one superpower in the world, and that is God and those who believe in Him.

“This, today, is the truth in the world. Three years ago, I wrote, as a university lecturer, a book titled Transition in International Relations of the Post-Western World. The claim [made in the title] is not mere words, but is scientific reality. In fact, you, the Iraqi people, have proven that it is not America that vanquished ISIS, but [the pro-Iran Iraqi Shi’ite militia] Al-Hashd Al-Sha’bi, the resistance groups, and the Iraqi armed forces. It is funny that they say that America defeated ISIS with [only] 20 [bombing] sorties. The truth is that the regime of America today is a regime that exists [only] in the mind  – that is, the world thinks that America still has the glory and the rule. The same truth applies to industry and economy. Where is the world that America rebuilt after World War II, besides Europe? And now it wants to rebuild Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

“Any American or even European company that wants to come to Iraq will spend more on security than it will on the [rehabilitation] project. But any Iranian company that wants to work in Iraq will not only see its maximum outlay fall, but it will be working out of love for the Imam Hossein.[5]

“We are enamored of Iraq’s rehabilitation. As we fought alongside Al-Hashd Al-Shabi and the Iraqi armed forces, so are we willing to participate in rebuilding Iraq. The truth is that Iraq’s entire upper echelon is committed to expanding [Iraq-]Iran cooperation, [and therefore] the minor officials in Iraq must internalize this truth. Our problem in Iraq is that the upper echelon has a good grasp of reality, but in the middle and lower ranks, fear of America’s might creates problems for developing [Iran-Iraq] relations.”[6]

Zarif is received in Erbil by Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG) Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani. Source: Tasnimnews.com, January 15, 2019.

[1] Kayhan (Iran), January 23, 2019.

[2] Mehrnews.com, January 18, 2019.

[3] Mehrnews.com, January 15, 2019; Tasnimnews.com, January 17, 2019.

[4] In fact, there has been no ceasefire in Syria since Syrian, Iranian, and Russian forces violated it, and battles are continuing.

[5] The Imam Hossein, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, the third imam in Twelver Shi’a and the founder of the Shi’a. He was murdered at the Battle of Karbala, circa 680 CE, by followers of Yazid bin Mu’awiya, founder of the Sunna.

[6] Tasnimnews.com, January 16, 2019.

January 31, 2019 | 6 Comments »

Leave a Reply

6 Comments / 6 Comments

  1. Seth Franzman’s latest report about the extremely “difficult” and chaotic situation in Iraq as well as Syria. Franzman thinks the U.S. may pull out of Iraq as well as Syria.

    What happens after US withdrawal from Syria?
    Anti-ISIS coalition meets in Washington amid shadow of uncertainty.

    SYRIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES and US troops are seen during a patrol near Turkish border in Hasakah.
    SYRIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES and US troops are seen during a patrol near Turkish border in Hasakah, Syria, in November.. (photo credit: RODI SAID / REUTERS)
    WASHINGTON – Six weeks after US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, the US-led coalition of 79 partner countries and organizations gathered in Washington on Thursday to assess the fight against ISIS and the situation in eastern Syria.

    At the meeting, held the day after his State of the Union address, Trump praised the Coalition’s partners and the Syrian Democratic Forces for liberating “virtually all the territory previously held by ISIS.”

    The confab took place as ISIS is largely defeated, having lost 99.5% of its territory, according to recent Defense Department estimates. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said 110,000 sq. km. of territory had been liberated and seven million people freed from ISIS control in the last four and a half years. He laid out the coalition’s strategy going forward, saying the US is committed to Iraq’s security forces, and to preventing ISIS threats to the partner countries. He encouraged every one of the 79 members to “put our money where our mouth is.”

    This would include investing in “civilian stabilization assistance,” the programs that would return areas liberated from ISIS to functioning and safe parts of their respective countries. “Our final objective is to promote justice for victims.”

    Attendees included: Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, who posted a photo with Yazidi genocide survivor Nadia Murad; and Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, who said that coordination was needed to prevent the resurgence of ISIS. “It takes addressing the root causes of this scourge effectively and avoidance of the repetition of past mistakes.”

    Hanging over the generalizations and self-congratulatory remarks was the US decision to quit Syria. The US, which stressed the need for stabilization, did not lay out its plans for the future in eastern Syria or how its withdrawal would be managed. Germany’s foreign office noted before the meeting that while ISIS had been “pushed back” in Iraq and large parts of Syria, the threat has “by no means been averted.” Turkey stressed that Trump’s decision to withdraw, announced in December 2018, was not the end of the conflict. “It simply represents a new stage in an old fight.”

    The US has not articulated how it will manage or coordinate its Syria withdrawal. This has led to constant rumors about how it may play out. Reports last month indicated the US might remain at its base in al-Tanf in eastern Syria’s desert.

    Turkey and the US have been discussing a “buffer” or “safe” zone that might extend up to 30 km. in Syria. Turkey wants this zone to be free of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish group that it asserts is part of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), but which is also part of the SDF, the main partner of the coalition. This has raised fears of a new conflict in Syria once the US withdraws.

    The co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), Ilham Ahmad, has been in Washington for two weeks giving talks and holding discussions aimed at slowing a US withdrawal and shoring up support for the SDF, of which her SDC is the political wing. She has met with groups across the political spectrum, including Democrat Tulsi Gabbard, who is running for President in 2020. According to Al-Monitor, she received an invite to the State of the Union address from Gabbard. Gabbard has been critical of US Syria policy, especially regarding the Assad regime, asserting Assad is not an enemy of the US.

    This leaves many question marks about the withdrawal. The SDF fears a quick withdrawal might lead to escalation in tension with Turkey which would force them to seek out a deal in which the Syrian regime might return to the border in eastern Syria, or Russia might broker some kind of deal. But they prefer the US partners they have worked with for four years to defeat ISIS.

    After more than 10,000 casualties fighting ISIS, the SDF and its constituent groups want peace. But the US hasn’t provided clarity on what comes next, according to meetings held in Washington with individuals knowledgeable of the current discussions.

    At the same time, the US has hosted representatives of Egypt, France, Germany, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UK to discuss the situation in Syria. They emphasized the need for a political solution to end the conflict, but did not provide details.

    Turkey’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sedat Onal, also was in Washington on February 5 and met with US officials to launch several working groups on bilateral relations, including “bilateral cooperation on Syria.” As with the Coalition meeting and the other high level meetings held this week, no concrete plan for what comes next was made public.

    It appears that more than a month and a half after Trump made his withdrawal from Syria announcement, much remains to be ironed out. There has been pushback and recognition of the sacrifices the SDF made fighting ISIS.

    But the US has not yet made the SDF part of the larger discussions about the withdrawal, and the meeting of the coalition did not provide clarity on that move.

    The coalition’s twitter account rarely seems to mention areas in eastern Syria which were liberated by the coalition. Instead, it mentions projects in Aleppo, Azaz, Souran in Hama province and UN programs directed to other areas of Syria.

    While the coalition said in December 2018 that “many stabilization projects had started in Iraq and Syria,” and that humanitarian efforts will continue in 2019, it is no longer spotlighting those efforts. The online withdrawal seems to have already begun, even if the physical withdrawal is at an impasse.

  2. Te human rights situation in Iraq is truly awful, due at least in part to Iranian influence. A pro-Jewish Iraqi Muslim writer who was also critical of Iran was just assassinated yesterday. From the Jerusalem Post:

    Chronicler of Iraq’s Jewish history murdered in Karbala
    Alaa Mashzoub was an Iraqi writer and intellectual. He was shot 13 times while riding his bicycle.

    Karbala, Iraq
    Karbala, Iraq. (photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)
    Alaa Mashzoub told the tale of how Iraq once was. He wrote about the country’s historic Jewish community. He told stories about Karbala and wrote novels. On Saturday, he was gunned down while riding his bicycle. His loss is mourned among Iraqis at home and in the diaspora, and appears to be an example of the continuing wave of assassinations that plague the country.

    According to The Baghdad Post, Mashzoub was born in 1968 and graduated from the University of Baghdad in 1993. He was a journalist and intellectual who wrote novels, including a book about Jewish history in Iraq, published in 2017. A journalist in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, he suffered along with many Iraqis from the privations of the blockade in the 1990s following the Gulf War. After the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003, he became more prolific.

    His novel on the Jews in Iraq, called Hamam al-Yahud (The Jewish Bath), takes place in 1918 and looks at a period of coexistence when the Jewish community was thriving. It received praise online in Arabic. According to an obituary published at Raseef22.com in Arabic, the book tells the story of a Jewish man who settled in Karbala, the Shi’ite holy city in Iraq. He opens a shop and builds a public bath, or hamam. The book highlights pluralism and coexistence.

    The article asks why was he killed, and notes that the police have launched a special investigation and cautions against assigning blame. However, some pointed out that he was a critic of extremist elements in Iran and had critiqued the Islamic Revolution that swept Iran in 1979. It is the 40th anniversary of that revolution.

    His murder is one of several high-profile killings in Iraq in recent years. Tara Fares, a beauty queen, was murdered in October, and other women involved in the fashion industry have been killed as well. A 2013 article from Al Jazeera noted that more than 500 Iraqi academics and intellectuals had been victims of targeted assassinations since 2003. In 2017, a wave of assassinations targeted doctors, becoming an “almost daily” occurrence according to locals.

    This makes me doubt whether the U.S. should be giving any military aid at all to Iraq.

  4. There have apparently been extensive semi-secret contacts between high-ranking Iraqis and Israel. This from Jan. 7 Arutz Sheva:

    Secret delegations from Iraq visit Israel
    Three delegations from Iraq have visited Israel in recent months, according to TV report.

    Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
    Three delegations from Iraq visited Israel in recent months, the last of which arrived in Israel within the last month, Hadashot TV reported on Sunday.

    The delegations included a total of 15 influential people from Iraq, including local religious leaders, both Sunnis and Shiites.

    According to the Hadashot TV report, the delegation met with Israeli officials, visited the Yad Vashem Museum and met with academics and organizations related to Iraqi Jewry.

    The visits were made possible in part because, compared to the generally hostile Arab world, Iraq has a relatively favorable attitude toward Israel.

    Last month, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu attended a conference of Israeli ambassadors at the Foreign Ministry, and told the diplomats, “When I meet with Arab leaders, they say to me, ‘We have security and economic interests, and we also want to enjoy the fruits of progress, and we will not mortgage our normalization with the State of Israel to the whims of the Palestinians.'”

    Netanyahu added at the time, “This does not mean peace agreements yet, but it certainly says that a situation could be created in which our progress toward normalization and peace, instead of what we always thought, peace with the Palestinians to the Arab world, could actually be the reverse. It would be good if there was an agreement with the Palestinians, but it cannot be the condition. We are not conditioning our cohesion with the Arab world – normalization, on peace with the Palestinians.”

  5. There is some evidence that some Iraqis are not enthusistic about Iranian diminance of their contrite, and that they have begun to see Israel as a prospective ally in their struggle to keep Iraq from becoming a colony of Iran. Thid from Elder:

    Iraqi newspaper praises Israel
    An Iraqi columnist asks why Iraq can’t be more like Israel.

    Khudair Tahir writes:

    The State of Israel has achieved a political miracle at all levels to the point where it has exported to Europe and America its technology and shares military plans with them.

    The miracle of Israel was achieved thanks to honest politicians and heroes who loved their country and sacrificed for it, and presented creative ideas for it and did everything for the purpose of progress.

    In 1924, 24 years before the declaration of the establishment of the State of Israel, the Jewish community established a university and a research institute in the present Land of Israel, it established an army and various institutions and it was ready at the moment of the declaration of the establishment of the State of Israel. …

    In Israel, they have achieved a miracle within a miracle. The community has achieved the highest degree of success in teamwork. You find Jewish institutions operating in different parts of the world….We don’t hear about disagreements and struggles for leadership and theft of public money.

    Another miracle is the Israeli patriotism, which blended religion with politics and employed it to serve the interests of the country. The Israeli reached the peak of feeling of national belonging and sacrifice, imagining the Jews leaving their work and original homeland in Europe and America and joining the army to perform military service and then returning to their native country.

    By the way, the daughter of US President Trump is Jewish and persuaded his wife to change her Christian religion to Judaism. Although he is a US citizen, he has traveled to Israel to serve in Israel. He serves as president’s adviser several times a day.

    The question is: Why did not Iraq produce sovereign national politicians like Israeli politicians?
    My personal opinion after seeing the failure of the Iraqis and Arabs residing in Europe, America, Canada and Australia to absorb and digest the civilization …. they have a lack of respect for the law and democracy and public freedoms and their lack of values ??of sincerity and honor of belonging to these countries to credit them …

  6. Excellent analysis, filled with documentation from Iranian sources. Yet another brilliant job from MEMRI.

    Iran’s stranglehold on Iraq does threaten to enable Iran to evade sanctions, and increases its hold on the entire “Shi’ite Corridor.” Very bad news/