By: Yigal Carmon and S. Ali*, MEMRI
Figure 1: Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi presents his cabinet in parliament, May 6, 2020 (Gds.gov, May 6, 2020)
Iraq’s national recovery has been brewing internally over nearly seven months of political unrest, ignited by protesters who took to the streets in October 2019 to demonstrate against the country’s endemic corruption and lack of basic services, and against Iran’s increasing meddling in Iraq’s internal affairs.
Iran’s attempt to silence protesters by force using its Iraqi militias failed when the protesters forced the Tehran-backed prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, to resign in November 2019, after only one year of his four-year tenure. Abdul Mahdi’s resignation signaled the beginning of the shattering of Iran’s grip over Iraq’s political system.
During the odyssey of the political attempts to replace Abdul Mahdi, Tehran failed to reinstate him as prime minister, and also failed to secure the path to this office for any of its proxies in Iraq.
The only time that Iran managed to score a win, albeit short-lived, was when it obstructed the designation of pro-U.S. MP Adnan Al-Zurfi as prime minister. But it was forced to accept the pro-U.S. intelligence chief Mustafa Al-Kadhimi as prime minister-designate, yet hoped that its proxies would prevent him from fulfilling his assignment to form a cabinet by May 9, the constitutional deadline for submitting his cabinet to parliament for approval.
However, on May 6, Iraqi lawmakers defied the odds and approved Al-Kadhimi as Iraq’s new prime minister, and also approved two-thirds of his proposed cabinet. His appointment is a major step that ushers in the start of Iraq’s independence from a decade of Iranian hegemony.
What Brought About Iraq’s National Recovery From Iranian Hegemony?
Iran’s current political decline in Iraq is inextricably linked to the bold U.S. airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force together with Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) deputy commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis. Both men had built and nurtured Iran’s network of Shi’ite militias in Iraq that were consolidated under the umbrella of the Iraqi government-funded PMU.
To avenge these killings, the PMU sponsored a parliamentary resolution in January to expel U.S troops from Iraq, and it was approved by Iraqi lawmakers. Yet four months later, and following an anti-U.S. one-million-man march staged by Iranian stooges, and despite minor rocket attacks launched by Iran-backed militias against Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, the latter maintain a strong presence in the country.
In April, another heavy blow was dealt to Iran and its leaderless PMU, by Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. Al-Sistani ordered his factions to withdraw from the PMU and merge with the Iraqi security apparatus, giving the green light for the dismantling of the PMU. By withdrawing these factions, Al-Sistani stripped the PMU of the cover of legitimacy that it had leveraged when he issued his June 2014 fatwa allowing all Iraqis capable of bearing arms to join the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS).
A major factor in Iran’s declining power has been the shrinking of its budget, due to the U.S. sanctions, along with the COVID-19 crisis and its impact on oil prices and on Iran’s economy in general. All these factors further exacerbated the collapse of Iran’s economy, and impacted Iran’s activity via its regional military arms in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. They also created new conditions that paved the way for Al-Kadhimi’s emergence as a prime minister who could gradually assert Iraq’s national recovery from Iran in the coming months of his tenure.
Reactions By Iran And By Its Iraqi Network Of Shi’ite Militias
Despite these dramatic events, Iran’s reaction was a thundering silence. None of the Iranian military or political leaders expressed any objections to the emerging reversal in Iraqi politics. This highlights their inability to obstruct and stop the Iraqi political process as they had in the past. Moreover, the official reactions of Iranian President Hassan Rohani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif were acceptance and willingness to fully cooperate with Al-Kadhimi –who was being accused by the Iran-backed Iraqi Shi’ite militias of conspiring with the U.S. to eliminate Qods Force commander Soleimani.
While Tehran officially welcomed Al-Kadhimi’s appointment, Kataib Hizbullah (KH), the most prominent of the Iran-backed Shi’ite militias in Iraq, issued a brief communique on May 6 criticizing its own militia allies in the Iraqi parliament for failing to stop Al-Kadhimi’s appointment: “We realize the great pressure to which the loyal group of brothers in the parliament were subjected in the vote for the Al-Kadhimi government, but this does not excuse their responsibility to continue to pursue those involved in the murder of our martyred leaders [Soleimani and Al-Muhandis].” This statement is much softer in tone than the group’s April 11 statement warning that Al-Kahdimi’s appointment would constitute a “declaration of war on the Iraqi people.” Such a threat is even harder to carry out now since it was KH’s “brothers” in parliament who approved Al-Kahdimi’s appointment.]
Meanwhile, Mohammad Al-Ghaban, head of the Al-Fatah parliamentary bloc which includes two of Iran’s most loyalist factions, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq and Badr Corps (the latter of which he heads), issued an unexpected statement on May 7. In the statement, which reflects a change in the bloc’s position towards the U.S., he practically acknowledged the pro-U.S. camp’s victory, calling on Washington to prioritize Iraq and help Baghdad through “these critical times.” He said: “We call on the United States not to consider the passing of the new government as a victory for it and a loss for its opponents in Iraq and the region. Indeed, the Iraqi political forces favored the interests of Iraq over all other considerations.”
Following the release of Al-Ghaban’s statement, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq secretary-general Qais Al-Khazali, an Iranian loyalist, tweeted a Quranic verse: “And never will the Jews or the Christians approve of you until you follow their religion.” By this, he was suggesting that even though the Al-Fatah parliamentary bloc had extended its support to Al-Kadhimi, the pro-U.S. camp would never consider it the bloc an ally.
Populist cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr resorted to his typical double-dealing, voicing his satisfaction with the new prime minister and at the same time noting that he would “assess Al-Kadhimi’s performance after 100 days” – likely assuming that these statements would shield him from Iranian criticism.
Within Days, Al-Kadhimi Consolidates Power, Asserts The Independence Of Iraqi Politics
Aware of the challenges ahead, Al-Kadhimi put forth an ambitious government program asserting his government’s pro-U.S. policy, which he had already begun implementing in his first week in office. The program includes the following:
1. Government Structure: The Iraqi lawmakers approved 15 of the 22 ministers proposed by Khadhimi, including his choice of pro-U.S. figures for interior and defense ministers. The new interior minister is Staff General Othman Al-Ghanimi, an officer widely admired by U.S. and British military officers. Last year, in his capacity as chief of staff, Al-Ghanimi was the guest of honor at the Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo. In the previous Iraqi governments, this post had often gone to candidates from the Iran-backed Badr Corps and had previously been filled by officers with close ties to the PMU. The first Iraqi citizen to receive the U.S. Armed Forces Legion of Merit, Al-Ghanimi is also the scion of a powerful and wealthy tribe in southern Iraq; he is not likely to be intimidated.
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