Peloni: Regime change alone is the the manner by which the Iran’s anti-Western belligerency around the world and pursuit of a nuclear weapon might be averted.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative” | December 29, 2024
*Driven by a 1,400-year-old fanatical religious vision – which eclipses financial and diplomatic benefits – Iran’s Ayatollahs have surged as the leading epicenter of anti-US Islamic terrorism, such as Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Gaza’s Hamas. In addition, the Ayatollahs have fueled civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, East Africa (Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Sudan) and West Africa (Mauritania). They have subverted and terrorized pro-US Sunni Arab regimes in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bharain, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, etc. Since the early 1980s, Iran’s Ayatollahs have collaborated – along with Hezbollah terrorists – with Latin America drug cartels, terror organizations, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and all anti-US governments. They have established sleeper cells on US soil and have served as a focal point of global drug trafficking, money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems.
*The Ayatollahs’ conventional capabilities have made them the lead igniter of regional and global instability, terrorism and wars.
*The 46-year-old US diplomatic option has not moderated Iran’s Ayatollahs, but – unintentionally – has facilitated their transformation from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to the leading anti-US perpetrator of wars and terrorism. Contrary to US policy makers, who consider negotiation (and economic sanctions) as a means to advance reconciliation, the Ayatollahs have viewed negotiation as a means to advance theiranti-US vision of subjugating the “apostate Sunnis” and the “infidel West.”
*President Trump’s maximum pressure economic sanctions managed to cripple the Ayatollahs’ economy and constrain their capabilities of assisting terror entities. However, as expected, President Biden proved them to be reversible and short-term in effectiveness. Moreover, surging unemployment and inflation, a disastrous shrinking of oil exports and a dramatically reduced GDP did not induce the intended policy changes by the Ayatollahs. Moreover, in the long run, the reversible economic sanctions enhanced the strategic posture of the Ayatollahs, who demonstrated their capabilities to overcome Western assaults.
*Economic sanctions are insufficiently effective when imposed on fanatical ideology-driven, apocalyptic regimes, as documented in their constitutions, school curriculum and official media. These regimes are less susceptible to the Western “Money Talks,” adhering to the Middle Eastern “Radical Vision Talks.”
*According to Tufts University’s Prof. Daniel Drezner, “Sanctions can be circumvented through third-party trade, with countries friendly to the sanctioned nation, serving as a substitute for both imports and exports from the countries that are sanctioning. For example, Russia’s trade with the European Union fell by about 5% compared to the 2017-2021 average in the wake of sanctions imposed in response to its invasion of Ukraine. However, at the same time, there were spikes in trade between Russia and Armenia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Hong Kong. Those countries also experienced increases in trade with Europe and the U.S….”
*Furthermore, 40 years of economic sanctions have not induced the Ayatollahs to abort their nuclear plan, or to refrain from flexing their highly destabilizing conventional rogue muscles. In fact, economic sanctions have incentivised them to develop creative ways to bypass sanctions, enhancing trade with China, Russia and other countries, which oppose sanctions.
*Iran’s Ayatollahs have evolved into a role model of ruthless, apocalyptic despotism and imperialism, driven by an ideology, which mandates subjugation and degradation of internal and external opponents, such as domestic dissidents, ethnic and religious minorities, women, “apostate” Sunni regimes, the “infidel” West (religiously, culturally and strategically), “The Great American Satan” and “the illegitimate Zionist entity, the vanguard of the US in the Middle East.”
*Contrary to economic sanctions, regime-change is irreversible. It eliminates the threat, and cannot be restored by succeeding Presidents. Moreover, regime-change in Iran would bolster the US’ strategic stature (including in Latin America, the US’ soft underbelly), by removing the Ayatollahs’ machete from the throats of all pro-US Arab regimes, eliminating the chief global destabilizer and core of Islamic terrorism. This would also induce Saudi Arabia and Oman (and possibly Kuwait, Indonesia and additional Moslem countries) to join the Abraham Accords.
*The track record of Iran’s Ayatollahs, the self-destructive nature of the US diplomatic option, and the reversibility of crippling economic sanctions, underscore the fact that the Ayatollahs should not be partners to negotiation, nor a target for maximum pressure economic sanctions, but a target for regime-change. Also, the potential cost of regime-change would be dwarfed by the horrific cost of facing a nuclear Iran.
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